Ducks

[e_blazer]

I’m part of the public too. The part that matters.

 

[Natebishop3]

Good way to make it so oregon never goes to another natty ever again.

 

[Hoopguru]

ESPN

Tried that in Big12 with OK/TX didnt work.

 

[wizenheimer]

this is a laughable tweet....utterly fucking ridiculous.

yeah, the Oregon legislature, which is out of session, is going to call a special session just for the purpose of trying to pass non-binding legislation calling for Oregon and OSU to be welded together in hearts and minds. It won't happen, and if by some twilight-zone/outer-limits alignment of dipshit cosmic circumstance it looked like it might happen, the UofO might very well try to go private. They've made substantial moves in that direction already

besides that, this all will very likely be finished before the state could do anything. There seems to be a growing belief that at the very least, Notre Dame and the UofO could be accepted into the Big-10 fairly soon. The expanded list might be Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington, and Stanford making the Big-10 the Big-20 with four, easily managed, 5-team pods. Nothing is certain obviously, but the train is moving down the track and gaining speed. The SEC and the Big-12 won't be standing still either

 

[theprunetang]

The Pac (12? 10?) should just merge with the Big Ten and rename it the Big Pac.

You would have enough of a TV market to demand two guaranteed spots for when the NCAA finally expands the football playoffs.

And when that league dies, then we will know who really killed Big and Pac.

 

[tykendo]

So Oregon's schedule would be ( Big matchup vs. SEC top team) Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, UCLA, Washington, and Oregon State ( keeping Instate rival game alive). Time to get those second deck plans ready for Autzen Stadium expansion.

 

[wizenheimer]

So Oregon's schedule would be ( Big matchup vs. SEC top team) Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, UCLA, Washington, and Oregon State ( keeping Instate rival game alive). Time to get those second deck plans ready for Autzen Stadium expansion.

the tea leaves are pointing for Oregon to join the Big-10. But that certainly isn't guaranteed at this point...at all. A lot of monkey wrenches could derail momentum, and it's for certain that USC is working behind the scenes to keep Oregon out. They are terrified of competing with Oregon on the field and for recruits. Linclon Riley and the USC AD are running scared when it comes to the Ducks

if the Ducks do join the Big-10, there is no logical reason for them to keep playing the Beavers every year. That game would not offer any reward for Oregon, only risk. That's not how a team builds a schedule designed for the playoffs

Over the last 2 full seasons, Ohio State did play Cincinnati and Oregon, but they also played Florida Atlantic, Miami (OH), Tulsa, & Akron..and all 6 nonC games were at home. Michigan played Notre Dame & Washington, but they also played Middle Tennessee St., Army, Western Michigan, & Northern Illinois....again, all at home

in the last 2 full seasons, Alabama did play Miami (FL), but they also played Duke, New Mexico St (twice)., Southern Mississippi (twice), Western Carolina, & Mercer; all at home...LOL...they know how to build winning schedules

that is the formula the elite schools use, one stern OOC test, usually at home, and a couple of cupcakes. Playing the Ducks would become the Beaver's Rose Bowl, and a continued home-and-home series would be just dumb for the Ducks to sign up for. The same would be true if Washington didn't get added to the Big-10. There would be no payoff for the Ducks in playing those games and it's completely obvious now that successful football programs, and conferences, are all about the payoff. The formation of super-conferences mean that out-of-conference rivalries are on life-support headed for the morgue

 

[SlyPokerDog]

the tea leaves are pointing for Oregon to join the Big-10. But that certainly isn't guaranteed at this point...at all. A lot of monkey wrenches could derail momentum, and it's for certain that USC is working behind the scenes to keep Oregon out. They are terrified of competing with Oregon on the field and for recruits. Linclon Riley and the USC AD are running scared when it comes to the Ducks

if the Ducks do join the Big-10, there is no logical reason for them to keep playing the Beavers every year. That game would not offer any reward for Oregon, only risk. That's not how a team builds a schedule designed for the playoffs

Over the last 2 full seasons, Ohio State did play Cincinnati and Oregon, but they also played Florida Atlantic, Miami (OH), Tulsa, & Akron..and all 6 nonC games were at home. Michigan played Notre Dame & Washington, but they also played Middle Tennessee St., Army, Western Michigan, & Northern Illinois....again, all at home

in the last 2 full seasons, Alabama did play Miami (FL), but they also played Duke, New Mexico St (twice)., Southern Mississippi (twice), Western Carolina, & Mercer; all at home...LOL...they know how to build winning schedules

that is the formula the elite schools use, one stern OOC test, usually at home, and a couple of cupcakes. Playing the Ducks would become the Beaver's Rose Bowl, and a continued home-and-home series would be just dumb for the Ducks to sign up for. The same would be true if Washington didn't get added to the Big-10. There would be no payoff for the Ducks in playing those games and it's completely obvious now that successful football programs, and conferences, are all about the payoff. The formation of super-conferences mean that out-of-conference rivalries are on life-support headed for the morgue

We'll keep playing the Beavers no matter which conferences both teams end up in.

 

[wizenheimer]

We'll keep playing the Beavers no matter which conferences both teams end up in.

that may be true. I'm just saying that the reward/risk factor is all positive for the Beavs and all negative for the Ducks.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

that may be true. I'm just saying that the reward/risk factor is all positive for the Beavs and all negative for the Ducks.

It's good for the fans of both teams in the State of Oregon.

 

[Natebishop3]

It's good for the fans of both teams in the State of Oregon.

Not if Oregon is trying to get to the natty.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Not if Oregon is trying to get to the natty.

If Oregon State is what keeps us from going to the Natty we were never serious contenders.

Ducks move to the Big 10 and you're looking at a minefield of Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, USC, & Penn State. Adding Oregon State to the schedule is not a worry.

 

[tykendo]

If Oregon State is what keeps us from going to the Natty we were never serious contenders.

Ducks move to the Big 10 and you're looking at a minefield of Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, USC, & Penn State. Adding Oregon State to the schedule is not a worry.

Exactly. Playing Oregon State instead of Cupcake U helps their standings.

 

[tykendo]

I'd like the Pac 10 to add some Mountain West Schools like Boise State & San Diego State. Heck , if Hawaii ever gets their new Aloha Stadium Built, then they would make sense.

 

[wizenheimer]

It's good for the fans of both teams in the State of Oregon.

if the Ducks go Big-10 it's a lot less good for Duck fans than Beaver fans. And the Ducks would make a hell of a lot more money scheduling Texas A&M, or Miami or Tennessee or LSU as the challenging OOC opponent rather than OSU. It would make no sense for Oregon to play one of the school like that and then have the Beavers as another OOC opponent while Ohio State plays Toledo & Arkansas State; and Michigan plays Akron & Northern Illinois; and Penn State plays Central Michigan and Ball State; and LSU plays MeNeese State & New Mexico; and Alabama plays Louisana-Monroe & Mercer. And yes, that's who those teams played

the OOC template for elite programs is set: you play one challenging team and a pair of cupcakes.

 

[tykendo]

if the Ducks go Big-10 it's a lot less good for Duck fans than Beaver fans. And the Ducks would make a hell of a lot more money scheduling Texas A&M, or Miami or Tennessee or LSU as the challenging OOC opponent rather than OSU. It would make no sense for Oregon to play one of the school like that and then have the Beavers as another OOC opponent while Ohio State plays Toledo & Arkansas State; and Michigan plays Akron & Northern Illinois; and Penn State plays Central Michigan and Ball State; and LSU plays MeNeese State & New Mexico; and Alabama plays Louisana-Monroe & Mercer. And yes, that's who those teams played

the OOC template for elite programs is set: you play one challenging team and a pair of cupcakes.

Screw scheduling the Cupcakes. Keep Oregon State rivalry going. By the way, Hawaii DID get approval to get the new Aloha Stadium built(starting date 2023).

 

[tykendo]

So if leaving the Pac 12 for the Big 10 is a foregone conclusion, how long till Oregon gets started on increasing capacity of Autzen to 75,000?

 

[Tince]

if the Ducks go Big-10 it's a lot less good for Duck fans than Beaver fans. And the Ducks would make a hell of a lot more money scheduling Texas A&M, or Miami or Tennessee or LSU as the challenging OOC opponent rather than OSU. It would make no sense for Oregon to play one of the school like that and then have the Beavers as another OOC opponent while Ohio State plays Toledo & Arkansas State; and Michigan plays Akron & Northern Illinois; and Penn State plays Central Michigan and Ball State; and LSU plays MeNeese State & New Mexico; and Alabama plays Louisana-Monroe & Mercer. And yes, that's who those teams played

the OOC template for elite programs is set: you play one challenging team and a pair of cupcakes.

These super conferences are going to change the original template.

And sadly, if Oregon goes to the Big"10", Oregon St is likely to turn into a cupcake.

 

[tykendo]

I think designing a mirror image of the south side, for the north side, gets that done.

 

[Tince]

So if leaving the Pac 12 for the Big 10 is a foregone conclusion, how long till Oregon gets started on increasing capacity of Autzen to 75,000?

Zero point in expanding until there is proven demand. Autzen attendenace rates have been declining. You don't expand assuming that demand will increase because you might find out is hasn't changed (or will continue to decline), then you either have to eat the cost for the expansion and/or lower ticket costs.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

if the Ducks go Big-10 it's a lot less good for Duck fans than Beaver fans. And the Ducks would make a hell of a lot more money scheduling Texas A&M, or Miami or Tennessee or LSU as the challenging OOC opponent rather than OSU. It would make no sense for Oregon to play one of the school like that and then have the Beavers as another OOC opponent while Ohio State plays Toledo & Arkansas State; and Michigan plays Akron & Northern Illinois; and Penn State plays Central Michigan and Ball State; and LSU plays MeNeese State & New Mexico; and Alabama plays Louisana-Monroe & Mercer. And yes, that's who those teams played

the OOC template for elite programs is set: you play one challenging team and a pair of cupcakes.

Oregon State would be a cupcake game on Oregon's schedule.

The future of college sports is NIL. Oregon State will not be able to maintain the level of athletes that it currently has. The TV money is going to go to the big conferences. Unfortunately, the Pac Whatever screwed itself and is no longer one of the big conferences.

Look at @tykendo's post, there is actual talk about replacing the LA TV market with San Diego, BYU, Boise State, and Hawaii. You think there is going to be much of a national TV audience for Hawaii vs Washington State?

If Oregon, Washington, and Stanford end up leaving the Pac 12 it will become a 2nd tier conference. 2nd tier conference means 2nd tier recruits. 2nd tier recruits = cupcake game for the Ducks.

 

[tykendo]

Zero point in expanding until there is proven demand. Autzen attendenace rates have been declining. You don't expand assuming that demand will increase because you might find out is hasn't changed (or will continue to decline), then you either have to eat the cost for the expansion and/or lower ticket costs.

If playing a rotation of Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Penn State, the need WILL BE THERE.

 

[wizenheimer]

Exactly. Playing Oregon State instead of Cupcake U helps their standings.

it does not. If it did Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson would have trouble getting in the playoffs

over the last 5 non-covid seasons, this is Alabama's OOC schedule:

(20) USC
Western Kentucky
Kent State
Chattanooga
(3) Florida State
Fresno State
Colorado State
Mercer
Louisville
Arkansas State
Louisiana
The Citadel
Duke
New Mexico State
Southern Mississippi
Western Carolina
(14) Miami (FL)
Mercer
Southern Mississippi
New Mexico State

and, not a single one of those 20 games were on the road. 17 at home and 3 neutral setting games

 

[TBpup]

it does not. If it did Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson would have trouble getting in the playoffs

over the last 5 non-covid seasons, this is Alabama's OOC schedule:

(20) USC
Western Kentucky
Kent State
Chattanooga
(3) Florida State
Fresno State
Colorado State
Mercer
Louisville
Arkansas State
Louisiana
The Citadel
Duke
New Mexico State
Southern Mississippi
Western Carolina
(14) Miami (FL)
Mercer
Southern Mississippi
New Mexico State

and, not a single one of those 20 games were on the road. 17 at home and 3 neutral setting games

No road OOC games and only 8 conference games. Certainly makes the road easier. Another thing the Pac-12 never figured out.

 

[Tince]

If playing a rotation of Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Penn State, the need WILL BE THERE.

That's a likely assumption, but you have to wait for it to play out. For every Ohio St game, there will be a Purdue, Minnesota, Rutgers, etc. Currently, if demand increases you can raise ticket prices with minimal risk. If you expand you are now counting on a significant increase in demand and the athletic department would be holding all that risk.

There is a risk that all this change in college football and lack of familiar teams will sour fans. There is risk that all that donation money that used to come in will go to NIL.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Zero point in expanding until there is proven demand. Autzen attendenace rates have been declining. You don't expand assuming that demand will increase because you might find out is hasn't changed (or will continue to decline), then you either have to eat the cost for the expansion and/or lower ticket costs.

The day games are full (except against the cupcakes) Whatever league they end up in they have to get rid of the late-night games. (at least when the weather turns cold) You are forcing many fans to pay an extra $400/night for a hotel room.

Ideally, they build a high-speed train between Seattle and Eugene. That would help during basketball season as well.

 

[Tince]

The day games are full (except against the cupcakes) Whatever league they end up in they have to get rid of the late-night games. (at least when the weather turns cold) You are forcing many fans to pay an extra $400/night for a hotel room.

Ideally, they build a high-speed train between Seattle and Eugene. That would help during basketball season as well.

That would be nice, but I'm not sure who would pay for the high-speed rail.

 

[wizenheimer]

So if leaving the Pac 12 for the Big 10 is a foregone conclusion, how long till Oregon gets started on increasing capacity of Autzen to 75,000?

first off, joining the Big-10 is a long ways from a forgone conclusion. The odds seem a little in favor of it happening but everything pivots on Notre Dame....yuck

expanding Autzen? It would probably happen but it might take a few years. They'd need to have several consecutive conference games with SRO attendance at Autzen and people waiting outside to justify it. Don't want to have games with lots of empty seasts. But you can never be sure what Phil Knight will pay for. I'd wager that the Ducks would want 2 or 3 years of that FOX TV money to roll in first

 

[tykendo]

Fox Sports was saying Oregon has been given a " hold on there little buddy" notice from the Big 10. I say Fuck'em. Recruit with the best of them, and continue to work toward finding that QB who can get'er done. Stay in the Pac 12.

 

[wizenheimer]

Fox Sports was saying Oregon has been given a " hold on there little buddy" notice from the Big 10. I say Fuck'em. Recruit with the best of them, and continue to work toward finding that QB who can get'er done. Stay in the Pac 12.

I don't know what it is you're referring too, but you may be misinterpreting the tea leaves

the last 'substantive' conjecture I've seen came last evening:



in case you're wondering, The Foundation is the legal NIL collective for Ohio State U students, much like Division Street is at the UofO. So, there is at least an aura of legitimacy to that tweet and it's been up for 15 hours and hasn't been taken down

there is some backgound: besides the UofO, Phil Knight has close connections to Stanford and Ohio State. He's well know and well liked in the inner circle of Ohio State power-brokers. He is a friend of the guy who started and initially funded The Foundation. So, it's possible that the biggest advocate for Oregon joining the Big-12 would be Ohio State, and that's no small thing

again, there are all kinds of potential monkey-wrenches and trap-doors in this process for Oregon (and any other Pac-12 team not USC or UCLA). It may be a 50/50 shot at best, although I think the odds are a little better than that

but neither Notre Dame or the Big-10 share the urgency that teams like Oregon and Washington feel. Until the dust settles, the building momentum of the recruiting class for the Ducks is in serious jeopardy. And it's the same for the rest of the remaining Pac-12 teams. There is no doubt that is the reason that Arizona-ASU-Utah-Colorado moved so quickly to apply for Big-12 membership

the Pac-12 is essentially dead now. When the best hope is what's left of the Pac-12 can merge with what's left of the Big-12 it's not a good situation