Electoral Prediction time: Obama vs Romney

[MARIS61]

What was looking like a tight race is starting to look like a clear victory for Obama?

This has never looked like a tight race, despite media proclamations to the contrary. It's always been a walkaway slam dunk for Obama.

 

[MARIS61]

All over but the shouting.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

 

[MARIS61]

http://www.salon.com/2012/11/06/mon...ilver_pushes_obamas_chances_above_90_percent/

UPDATED: A 10:05 p.m. Silver update has pushed Obama’s chances of re-election to 92.2 percent, with 315.3 electoral votes.

Nate Silver has gone all-in with President Obama.

In a Monday evening update to his fivethirtyeight blog on the New York Times, the polling guru and human Xanax for Obama voters increased the likelihood of the president’s re-election to 91.4 percent.

That’s the high-water mark for Obama in Silver’s rigorous model, which weighs a wide variety of state and national polls and weighs them based on statistical validity and historical accuracy, among other factors.

It’s also a big jump from earlier today. In Silver’s early Monday morning update, Obama had an 86 percent chance of defeating Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Obama’s previous high was 87 percent, just prior to his sleepy performance in the first presidential debate last month.

Here’s what the results mean: Silver’s predicting that if the election — based on the current polls — were run 100 times, Obama would win just over 91 times. Romney would likely win just in just over 8 of those elections.

Silver’s widely respected because he correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008, along with all of the year’s Senate elections, and came within percentage points of predicting the popular vote.

Other results from Silver’s Monday evening update:

* He predicts Obama will win 314.4 electoral votes, to 223.6 for Mitt Romney.

* Silver also has Obama winning the popular vote, with 50.9 percent to Romney’s 48.2.

* Among swing states, Silver has turned Florida blue. He has Obama as a 52.5 percent favorite there. Obama is also favored to take Virginia (80.3 percent), Colorado (80.3 percent), Ohio (91.2 percent), New Hampshire (84.9 percent) and Iowa (85 percent).

* Silver installed Romney as a 72.4 percent favorite in North Carolina.

 

[crowTrobot]

All over but the shouting.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

nate silver's model is up to 92.2% to 7.8% obama.

and yet FNC still parading pundits claiming Romney will win easily.

 

[Haakzilla]

[video=youtube;_H1nGEadNtI]

 

[mook]

Obama 303 - 234.
Because 538 says so, and Silver was off by only 12 last time (he underestimated Obama).

Silver's final prediction was 313 for Obama. I didn't update my guess to reflect that out of pure ignorance. So I find myself in the odd position of hoping Obama loses Florida so I hit it square on the head.

Either way Silver was wrong. It'll either be 303 or 332 depending on Florida. Looking more like 332.

 

[maxiep]

Marist and Nate Silver are both geniuses. I criticized them roundly before the election, but facts are facts. I didn't buy that the makeup of the electorate would look like it did, and I was wrong. Horribly, horribly wrong. I am out of touch with the rest of America. Having lived in Europe, I now understand what our country is. It's a different place today.

 

[ppilot]

Marist and Nate Silver are both geniuses. I criticized them roundly before the election, but facts are facts. I didn't buy that the makeup of the electorate would look like it did, and I was wrong. Horribly, horribly wrong. I am out of touch with the rest of America. Having lived in Europe, I now understand what our country is. It's a different place today.

The issue is that so far any Republican candidate has to adhere to requirements of the far right's conservative social views which alienates a massive amount of the population that is only going to get bigger. I would absolutely vote for candidate who is a true fiscal moderate-right leaning and moderate on social views. Romney was not that guy.

 

[maxiep]

The issue is that so far any Republican candidate has to adhere to requirements of the far right's conservative social views which alienates a massive amount of the population that is only going to get bigger. I would absolutely vote for candidate who is a true fiscal moderate-right leaning and moderate on social views. Romney was not that guy.

He was when he was governor of Massachusetts. I suspect Romney would have governed that way as President. He hasn't really allowed his personal beliefs (which I think are quite socially conservative) to impact his policies. I think he was interested in righting the fiscal ship and didn't really care about social issues.