Electoral Prediction time: Obama vs Romney

[Further]

Who wins and by how much?

 

[maxiep]

I think Obama wins Ohio, but Romney wins Wisconsin and Iowa (as well as Colorado).

 

[Further]

Obama 285-299

 

[mook]

Obama 303 - 234.
Because 538 says so, and Silver was off by only 12 last time (he underestimated Obama).

 

[crowTrobot]

I think Obama wins Ohio, but Romney wins Wisconsin and Iowa (as well as Colorado).

i don't see how if romney has the momentum to win the latter 3 he wouldn't also win ohio

 

[Denny Crane]

Maybe a more interesting question is whether we'll know who won the day after the election. I think... not.

 

[MickZagger]

I think Obama wins Ohio, but Romney wins Wisconsin and Iowa (as well as Colorado).

Hah! No way Romney wins Wisconsin, or Colorado.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Obama 300+

 

[DaLincolnJones]

Romney 270-284

I really think we see some suprises this time. I think that a lot of the votes that the left is counting as a forgone conclusion,dont happen as planned.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

It's not fair that Obama gets to count votes from 57 states while Romney only uses 50.

 

[Further]

Romney 207-284

I really think we see some suprises this time. I think that a lot of the votes that the left is counting as a forgone conclusion,dont happen as planned.

Well Romney winning with only 207 electoral votes would be a surprise. 270 is I'm sure what you meant.

Just wondering which votes that are being counted as forgone conclusions are you talking about?

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Obama 538
Romney 0

 

[barfo]

Romney 207-284

I really think we see some suprises this time. I think that a lot of the votes that the left is counting as a forgone conclusion,dont happen as planned.

Well, some of us are obviously going to be surprised.

barfo

 

[DaLincolnJones]

Well Romney winning with only 207 electoral votes would be a surprise. 270 is I'm sure what you meant.

Just wondering which votes that are being counted as forgone conclusions are you talking about?

well, as the polls are based on the turn out of the last election, I believe that the numbrs for barry are inflated. the last election had a higher than normal turnout for barry and I dont see it being as high this time. Also, the buzz is that there are more Rs expected to make a point of balloting this time.

 

[mobes23]

Nate Silver is saying that Obama has an 80% chance of winning: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...ple-case-for-saying-obama-is-the-favorite/?hp

 

[The_Lillard_King]

What was looking like a tight race is starting to look like a clear victory for Obama?

 

[DaLincolnJones]

What was looking like a tight race is starting to look like a clear victory for Obama?

well, the main stream media is going to claim it is so, as they have been and are the biggest cheer leaders, they feel that because people like to vote for the winner, if they keep saying it, they will push those undecided to vote for barry. Could back fire, if all the barry supporters believe they have this in the bag, could be that many will not bother to vote..

 

[Denny Crane]

Nate Silver is saying that Obama has an 80% chance of winning: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...ple-case-for-saying-obama-is-the-favorite/?hp

If I said it was a 51% chance and was right, can I get paid lots of money by the NYT to spin the polls too?

 

[mobes23]

If I said it was a 51% chance and was right, can I get paid lots of money by the NYT to spin the polls too?

Sure! But you should throw in just enough statistics terminology to make yourself sound knowledgeable and evenhanded. The part about overfit models was exciting to me (I wish I were kidding about that.)

Off topic, but google seems to think I'm voting for Romney and I'm getting a lot of banner ads to contribute to Romney. I blame Denny and Romney supporters for this. Should I click through and not donate so that I can transfer some wealth from Romney to Denny? Something good should come of this lol.

 

[crowTrobot]

If I said it was a 51% chance and was right, can I get paid lots of money by the NYT to spin the polls too?

from reading his articles nate silver seems reasonably objective (unlike MSNBC and FNC pundits).

also most other poll tracking sites (not associated with the NYT) including realclearpolitics tell the same story.

 

[Denny Crane]

Sure! But you should throw in just enough statistics terminology to make yourself sound knowledgeable and evenhanded. The part about overfit models was exciting to me (I wish I were kidding about that.)

Off topic, but google seems to think I'm voting for Romney and I'm getting a lot of banner ads to contribute to Romney. I blame Denny and Romney supporters for this. Should I click through and not donate so that I can transfer some wealth from Romney to Denny? Something good should come of this lol.

Romney is buying the ads through Adsense. Maybe it sees "Romney is a liar" so much, the software selects additional ads.

Please don't game the ad system. Click if you're seriously interested.

 

[maxiep]

i don't see how if romney has the momentum to win the latter 3 he wouldn't also win ohio

Living in Denver (which is much like Multnomah County), it would shock me if Romney didn't win Colorado. I remember what it was like here in 2008 and all the energy is on the other side today. The GOP is mobilized in Wisconsin due to the Supreme Court and Walker recalls. Iowa is trending Republican. Ohio has been stickier because Romney was so demonized in ads and they have more jobs (especially around Toledo) tied to the auto industry. I don't know how Romney let Obama define his position on the auto bailout the way he did, but it's hurt him there.

 

[Denny Crane]

from reading his articles nate silver seems reasonably objective (unlike MSNBC and FNC pundits).

also most other poll tracking sites (not associated with the NYT) including realclearpolitics tell the same story.

Not entirely. His blog posts are typically "good news for Romney, but..."

 

[maxiep]

Obama 303 - 234.
Because 538 says so, and Silver was off by only 12 last time (he underestimated Obama).

http://teddysratlab.blogspot.com/2012/11/comment-statistics.html

 

[Denny Crane]

Funny thing about Ohio and other places seeing a less worse economy. Republican governors. Kasich is downright awesome. The turnaround in Indiana is one of the best stories if the past 4 years (Mitch Daniels).

 

[maxiep]

Funny thing about Ohio and other places seeing a less worse economy. Republican governors. Kasich is downright awesome. The turnaround in Indiana is one of the best stories if the past 4 years (Mitch Daniels).

I don't understand the argument that President Obama has an advantage in some of these swing states because the unemployment rate is lower than the national average. Well, the national average stinks on ice, so who cares if you're just a bit better? I'd rather be in one of those "depressed" states under Bush where the unemployment rate what a shockingly high 5% than one of these "booming" states under Obama where the U3 is 7%.

 

[MickZagger]

Ohio is Obama's.

 

[Denny Crane]

http://teddysratlab.blogspot.com/2012/11/comment-statistics.html

Fantastic. When I modeled and simulated the NBA for a graduate level class I took, I ran millions of simulated full NBA seasons and compared the model's predicted (average of 1M runs) against the players' actual stats and the teams' actual victory totals. It took me 3 semesters to get it reasonably close.

The ultimate goal was to be able to model "what if" scenarios. Like what if the Blazers drafted Jordan, or Durant.

I'd also point out that even with 1M runs doing a pretty close to reality result, any one run could deviate quite a bit. Like a different scoring leader or different champion.

 

[maxiep]

Fantastic. When I modeled and simulated the NBA for a graduate level class I took, I ran millions of simulated full NBA seasons and compared the model's predicted (average of 1M runs) against the players' actual stats and the teams' actual victory totals. It took me 3 semesters to get it reasonably close.

The ultimate goal was to be able to model "what if" scenarios. Like what if the Blazers drafted Jordan, or Durant.

I'd also point out that even with 1M runs doing a pretty close to reality result, any one run could deviate quite a bit. Like a different scoring leader or different champion.

It's a tough thing for people to accept, but certainty in something as infrequent as an election is a fool's errand.

 

[TradeNurkicNow]

I just cannot see Obama losing at this point.