The trend continues?
Bernie defeats Hiliar again.
Meanwhile:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/05/what-landslide/482088/
What Democratic Landslide?
Warning: Candidates in this election may be closer than they appear.
To listen to the
handwringing from
despondent Republicans and the self-assurance from exultant Democrats over the last week, a Hillary Clinton landslide defeat of Donald Trump in November seemed a fait accompli. On Tuesday morning, however, the release of a group of polls put a damper on that forecast—at least for a few hours until the next ones come out.
The swing-state
surveys from Quinnipiac University and a
national snapshot from Public Policy Polling, a left-leaning firm, show a surprisingly close general-election race. The PPP survey found Clinton leading Trump by just four points nationally, 42 percent to 38 percent, while Quinnipiac found the two essentially tied in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Trump edged Clinton by four points in the Buckeye State, and Clinton led him by a point in Florida and Pennsylvania. As with any poll taken six months before the election, these require a couple grains of salt, and in the case of Quinnipiac, perhaps a few more. Other political forecasters
pointed out that its sample of voters in the three states was more white than in 2012 exit polls, while the electorate is expected to be similar in 2016 if not more diverse than four years ago. A sample with more white voters would favor Republicans.
Still, both sets of data point to a tighter contest than other recent polls and far closer than the congealing conventional wisdom would suggest. A
CNN/ORC national survey released last week gave Clinton a 13-point advantage, and the RealClearPolitics
average has her up by more than six points. Polls that show Clinton leading Trump by
nine points in North Carolina and
down by just one in traditionally Republican Georgia contributed to the impression that the campaign was over before it started.
(Note mention of RCP average)
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160505-20160510/type/day
Reuters running poll.
Hiliar 41.3%, Trump 40.0%