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BlazerCaravan said:
Srsly tho, is there a team left in the playoffs other than Golden State we couldn't take to seven? Maybe Cleveland.

EDIT: and OKC. Damn!
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Spurs, LMA would have been motivated for all the games instead of his normal 2 per series.
 
Think about Kevin Peltons statement logically and you see how moronic it is.

It can't be that he believes we will decline, his statement about winning 44 games rules that out.

So the only other option to explain his claim that "Several lottery teams likely to contend for playoff spots" is that he believes Utah will improve at least +4 wins, Sacramento +11, Nuggets +11, Pelicans +13, Suns +21 all while the Blazers show no improvement or decline.

GET THE F OUT OF HERE FAMS!!!!
 
BonesJones said:
Parity in the NBA sucks. That's the thing with the MLB and NFL. Almost every team has a real chance to make the playoffs and about 8 or 9 teams are contenders, with teams being recycled in and out ever 2 or 3 years. For the NBA, you can predict at least 80% of the playoff teams prior to the season. There's 3 or 4 contenders that get recycled out every 5 or 6 years.
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Yep. And that's why, outside of the Blazers I don't give a crap about pro basketball. March Madness is great.
But man college BB can be boring, sometimes.
 
Fonzthecpt1 said:
So the only other option to explain his claim that "Several lottery teams likely to contend for playoff spots" is that he believes Utah will improve at least +4 wins, Sacramento +11, Nuggets +11, Pelicans +13, Suns +21 all while the Blazers show no improvement or decline.

GET THE F OUT OF HERE FAMS!!!!
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Pelton is the one that said before the season he believes the Blazers will be a lot better than what the other talking heads say - so I would not take him so lightly.

Let's look at it reasonably -

Utah has a very good foundation and they were very close this year. They also had tons of injuries. Would not surprise me to see them improve.

Sacramento is getting a very good coach instead of having a coach that immediately went to war with their #1 player. Not sure this is enough - but they could be better.

The Wolves have great talent. Next year they will also have a first rate coach (which they did not in quite some time).

The Pelicans had awful injury issues this year and were a playoffs team last year - so again - they could contend for the playoffs.

I do not believe in the Nugs or the Suns as currently constructed, but the west should be better next year. On the other other hand, the Spurs, Rockets and maybe OKC could be worse.
 
andalusian said:
Pelton is the one that said before the season he believes the Blazers will be a lot better than what the other talking heads say - so I would not take him so lightly.

Let's look at it reasonably -

Utah has a very good foundation and they were very close this year. They also had tons of injuries. Would not surprise me to see them improve.

Sacramento is getting a very good coach instead of having a coach that immediately went to war with their #1 player. Not sure this is enough - but they could be better.

The Wolves have great talent. Next year they will also have a first rate coach (which they did not in quite some time).

The Pelicans had awful injury issues this year and were a playoffs team last year - so again - they could contend for the playoffs.

I do not believe in the Nugs or the Suns as currently constructed, but the west should be better next year. On the other other hand, the Spurs, Rockets and maybe OKC could be worse.
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Again though, you think Utah is going to improve +4 wins while we don't go anywhere?

Ghandi couldn't coach Demarcus Cousins

Do you really think the wolves have a leader like dame and the talent like our team with the determination to do what we did this year? Cause that's what it's going to take to get them out of mediocrity.

Pelicans were a 45 win team that season. I would agree they could return to somewhere around there 40-48 wins, but again...Do you really agree with Pelton that we will not improve? You think we are going to have another 11-20 stretch next season? I don't...I think that 11-20 next year will look more like 21-10, which would put us at 54 wins. The King might be a massive homer, but he's no fool. There's serious plausibility behind the #54'

Suns could be one of the teams to not make the playoffs who end up fighting for a spot. Assuming they can stay healthy, they were one of the teams that I feel like make Pelton sound better. However again...Blazers aren't staying at 44 FAMS
 
Fonzthecpt1 said:
Again though, you think Utah is going to improve +4 wins while we don't go anywhere?
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Sure. If the rosters are the same - all it takes is for Utah to be healthy and us losing CJ or Dame for 20+ games.

Do you really think the wolves have a leader like dame and the talent like our team with the determination to do what we did this year? Cause that's what it's going to take to get them out of mediocrity.
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I think that the Wolves have maybe the best overall young talent in the league. They might not be ready yet, but KAT was as impressive a rookie as I have seen in a long time.

Pelicans were a 45 win team that season. I would agree they could return to somewhere around there 40-48 wins, but again...Do you really agree with Pelton that we will not improve? You think we are going to have another 11-20 stretch next season? I don't...I think that 11-20 next year will look more like 21-10, which would put us at 54 wins. The King might be a massive homer, but he's no fool. There's serious plausibility behind the #54'
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Look, if you ask me, if nothing horrible happens health wise, I believe this team gets better, maybe closer to 48-50 wins next year, but a regression is possible, health was not a real issue this year and could be next year - and the off-season problem might happen. What happens if we lose one of Crabbe and Harkless in addition to Gerald and whoever comes over does not work? Neil hit a home-run this year, you can not expect him to do that every year.

Likely? No, I believe this team is on an upward trajectory and Neil could score another great off-season, health continues to be good - but this year was a down-year for the Western conference. I do believe next year this conference will be better - which will make the job harder.

Suns could be one of the teams to not make the playoffs who end up fighting for a spot. Assuming they can stay healthy, they were one of the teams that I feel like make Pelton sound better. However again...Blazers aren't staying at 44 FAMS
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I believe so, and I hope so - but Pelton is not completely out of his mind either.
 
I guess they have to post something, but trying to make any analysis about next year without seeing what moves are made this summer is just silly fluff. Do they think the Blazers are going to sit on $20 plus million in cap space and not add anything of value?
 
andalusian said:
Sure. If the rosters are the same - all it takes is for Utah to be healthy and us losing CJ or Dame for 20+ games.



I think that the Wolves have maybe the best overall young talent in the league. They might not be ready yet, but KAT was as impressive a rookie as I have seen in a long time.



Look, if you ask me, if nothing horrible happens health wise, I believe this team gets better, maybe closer to 48-50 wins next year, but a regression is possible, health was not a real issue this year and could be next year - and the off-season problem might happen. What happens if we lose one of Crabbe and Harkless in addition to Gerald and whoever comes over does not work? Neil hit a home-run this year, you can not expect him to do that every year.

Likely? No, I believe this team is on an upward trajectory and Neil could score another great off-season, health continues to be good - but this year was a down-year for the Western conference. I do believe next year this conference will be better - which will make the job harder.



I believe so, and I hope so - but Pelton is not completely out of his mind either.
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Well shit man I never go into a season thinking so and so is going to get injured. If that's what you and Pelton are basing your prediction on then that is whack.

As far as losing players in the offseason, I don't think anyone would argue that we will lose at least 1 of our guys to free agency, but losing Crabbe and Harkless? Gotta think worst case you lose one of the two...
 
Fonzthecpt1 said:
Well shit man I never go into a season thinking so and so is going to get injured. If that's what you and Pelton are basing your prediction on then that is whack.
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I do not know what the prediction is. I do think however that he is not out of his mind to think that next year the Western conference will be harder and that there is a chance this team is could regress. I was certain the Blazers will have multiple 'ships by now with a core of Roy, Oden and LMA...

Anyway, it is way too early to really give any predictions without knowing what happens with rosters all over the league this summer.
 
Lot teams success is staying heathy and how much they progress in the off season. I know people think if team gets this player they automatic going to improve not always sometimes they don't mesh together ask Houston about that or the Lakers both got Howard and at end both teams fail.
 
Trackjack said:
Lot teams success is staying heathy and how much they progress in the off season. I know people think if team gets this player they automatic going to improve not always sometimes they don't mesh together ask Houston about that or the Lakers both got Howard and at end both teams fail.
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I'm pretty sure that Neil Olshey is well aware of the importance of chemistry to what this team was able to achieve. That's why I would really be surprised to see Howard in a Blazers' uniform next season, unless he can convince Olshey that he's willing to blend in with the direction of what's already been accomplished here.
 
While it's asinine to predict where a team will finish before the season is even over, I agree with them.

Fun segment on the radio last night. The guys were talking about which teams in the Western Conference the Rockets had a better future than, right now. They basically went down the standings

GS-No
SA-No
OKC-No
LAC-No
POR-No
DAL-No
MEM-No
Then they got in to the teams that missed the playoffs, and basically it was the Lakers and Nuggets.

LOL Made my night. I hate the Rockets.

However, it also made me look at the conference again and thought, damn, Utah, Minny and NO could really jump up quite a bit in the standings. So what those guys are saying way too early, isn't completely idiotic
 
The 'Way-to-Early' Top 10 for 2016-17

GSW - Should win 65+ games again.
SAS - 60+ because Pop is a witch regardless of who retires.
OKC - Kanter improving....depends on if Durant stayes but still around 55 wins or better
LAC - When healthy, they are still a 55 win team. They probably add a piece this summer as well.
POR - Just a maturing process. Should hit 50 wins. A lot of $$ to spend....finally a needle mover?
MEM - Trashed by injuries and who knows who comes back but with Gasol and Zach, they'll be tough inside. If Conley leaves, that hurts.
UTA - Another team decimated by injury that has a lot of young talent. Could be next years 'Blazers' from this year.
MIN - Between KAT, Wiggins, Deng, Rubio (often hurt) and Thibs teaching them defense, they could make a good sized move.
DAL - Old, Older, Oldest. I suspect a lot more complaining from Cuban.
NOP - More injuries.....does the Unibrow finally turn into a leader?
 
I agree that it is way too early to predict, but I get they have a job to do. They will do it again after free agency and again before the season starts.

If Pelton is right and the 2nd and (maybe) 3rd tiers are better next year in the west, where are those wins coming from?

I agree that GS and SA win number will come down, and that the non playoff/injured teams will probably all increase, but there is also a chance everyone gets better but the wins stay the same in the middle. Granted 44 wins is pretty low for 5th, but 47 might be possible if parity comes into play. But again there will be teams who take a dive due to injuries. It is inevitable. It's just really hard to guess which teams it happens to.

What stands out to me is that a teams wins and losses are not that important when evaluating your team's progress. It still comes down to how you compare to your competition. Some fans said earlier in the year that they didn't want to make the playoffs if we were only 500. Does that really matter if a bunch of other teams are at 500 too? It just comes down to how well we are playing at the end of the year and how much parity we have in the league that year.

For a team like Portland last year who started out slow and was 9 games under 500, even if we finished below 500, for what ever reason that still means we were playing at a higher level as the end. And that is just as important heading into the playoffs than what your win total was. (Other than who you are matched up against)
 
The west is so hard to predict because there's so many bubble teams that either could or could not figure things out next season.

People have been saying Utah would compete for a playoff spot for a couple years. I still think they're missing a go-to-guy. They have a lot of talent though.

Minnesota should be markedly better next season.... but they're young, so who knows?

The Pelicans seem to perpetually be slotted into the top 8.... and then they seem to perpetually have significant injuries to key players.
 
dviss1 said:
Blazers will approach 60 wins next season. You do that when you sign KD.
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Do you think he'll still leave even though his team is doing so well? Or is it Finals Or Bust? (KD on our team could get us past the Warriors, provided they don't take another leap forward).
 
BlazerCaravan said:
Do you think he'll still leave even though his team is doing so well? Or is it Finals Or Bust? (KD on our team could get us past the Warriors, provided they don't take another leap forward).
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If I'm KD, I'm looking at the future of the organization. Westbrook will be a free agent soon. I think Russ leaves. I could see him going to LA. I don't think beating the Spurs will be enough. They will need to get to the Finals again, at the very least. If they get embarrassed by Golden State, I think he leaves.
 
SlyPokerDog said:
The Portland Trail Blazers' season is over -- a lot later than nearly anyone expected.

How do they make the leap to title contention? What's missing?

Our NBA Insiders go 5-on-5 to forecast the future for the Blazers.

1. What do you foresee and advise for the Blazers this offseason?
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Staying the course. We've seen teams try to prematurely accelerate the rebuilding process after an unexpected playoff appearance (cough, cough Milwaukee), but I'd hope the Portland front office doesn't overreact to the fifth-seed status. Remember, the team's 44-38 record in 2015-16 wouldn't have even made the playoffs in each of the last three seasons.

Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Honestly? Status quo. Portland needs to be patient with the growth of its players. Sure, a bona fide stretch 4 or a 3-and-D guy would be optimal. But patience is the biggest variable.

Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: With Moe Harkless, Allen Crabbe and Meyers Leonard restricted free agents, the Trail Blazers can go fishing in the broader free-agent market and come back and match any outside offers for those young guys. Money isn't generally an issue in Portland, and there's a good bet the Trail Blazers will opt to retain at least two of those guys.

Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: The Blazers don't need to rush their roster building and there's no reason to overpay a free agent, though it's fine to kick the tires on someone like Al Horford or Chandler Parsons. Portland has to deal with the restricted free agencies of Leonard, Harkless and Crabbe this summer, then C.J. McCollum and Mason Plumlee next year. I'd keep them all. Most of this roster is on the upswing and the next big improvement in Portland probably stems from someone like Noah Vonleh breaking out.

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: The Blazers have ample depth, so I think the best plan for them is to exclusively pursue first- and second-tier free agents who would actually be an upgrade on the players currently on the roster. To clear enough cap space for such players, Portland might have to let Gerald Henderson and Meyers Leonard walk, and re-sign Allen Crabbe and Maurice Harkless.

2. What's missing in Portland?
Arnovitz: The Trail Blazers need some paint presence/rim protection for a defense that finished the season ranked 20th overall. And no complaints if that addition had a goon-ish streak. They also could use a third scorer who can create a shot for himself, preferably one with a little more size who can hold down one of the forward spots.

Pelton: I think the playoffs have exposed a couple of shortcomings. The Blazers could use one more perimeter player who can create shots for himself or others when defenses take away Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. They could also use an upgrade in terms of rim protection, though that might mean sacrificing the playmaking Mason Plumlee provided from the center spot.

Doolittle: As well as the Lillard-McCollum-Crabbe backcourt played, in the long run the Blazers are going to need a dynamic defensive presence in the middle to make it work on both ends. Also, you'd like to see a little more of an offensive standout at small forward, though I really like the way Al-Farouq Aminu has come along.

Haberstroh: An Andrew Bogut to anchor the defense. The Blazers ranked 20th in defensive rating this season and gave up a ton of fouls in the paint. A true defensive ace would allow perimeter shooters to gamble a bit more defensively, where they ranked 25th in opponent turnover rate.

Elhassan: Patience is what they need, as I mentioned, but two-way players would help as well.

Is Mason Plumlee Portland's center for the future? Jesse D. Garrabrant/Getty Images
3. Who should be the primary center for Portland going forward?
Pelton: Leonard doesn't provide enough rim protection, so while using him at center juices the offense, I don't think it's workable defensively on a full-time basis. Davis is a great part of a rotation, not necessarily the leader of one. Plumlee was a revelation this season but struggled as a finisher and to control the paint defensively against playoff competition.

I remain intrigued by the possibility of Hassan Whiteside playing a DeAndre Jordan-style role in pick-and-rolls with Lillard and McCollum. If Whiteside isn't a cultural fit or wants to play elsewhere, I don't see a realistic young free agent who's a clear upgrade over Plumlee.

Doolittle: Portland is positioned fairly well to woo the bigger free agents and some of the centers might be a good fit -- Horford especially, given his ability to both defend and work as a screener for Lillard and McCollum. That said, if the Blazers don't make a splash with a new center, their current crew will again share court time according to matchups.

Haberstroh: Ed Davis probably gives me the most hope, but I still don't know if he's strong enough to be a premier rim protector in the NBA. I'd take a look at Ian Mahinmi and see if he can fill that spot at a reasonable price.

Elhassan: Plumlee, because he has shown the ability to not only finish but also make decisions and make the simple pass. Perhaps he can become more sophisticated in his passing, but even at his rudimentary level it makes life easier for the Blazers' backcourt.

Arnovitz: I still think Davis can be a starting center in the NBA, provided he were paired with a 4-man who can stretch the floor and give Lillard and McCollum the driving lanes they need to get to the rim. Leonard has the size, but I'm not sold that there's enough of a defensive presence there to make it work. In that respect, he and Davis make up a respectable frontcourt, but I suspect the Trail Blazers' primary center going forward might be someone who isn't currently on the payroll.

4. Where will the 2016-17 Blazers finish in the standings?
Elhassan: Absent a major offseason acquisition, probably a seven or eight seed. That's not a knock on them, but rather acknowledgement that the Jazz dealt with serious injuries and Houston seriously underachieved.


Trail Blazers fight to the finish, primed for future battles
The Portland Trail Blazers didn't let the Golden State Warriors run all over them. They fought hard and are in excellent position for future success.

Haberstroh: Fifth. Remarkably, this team hasn't played a 30-year-old for more than 50 minutes here in the playoffs. This entire roster is entering its prime, so they'll improve on development alone. But I worry that Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum might burn out a bit if they don't get a third scorer.

Pelton: Despite their youth, I think more likely sixth through eighth than part of the top five again. Naturally, that can change dramatically this summer, but my sense is the West's second (or perhaps) third tier will be much deeper next season than it was this season. Odds are 44 wins won't be nearly enough to finish fifth with several lottery teams likely to contend for playoff spots.

Arnovitz: This question can never be answered in a vacuum. The Warriors and Spurs are locks ahead of them next season. If the Clippers keep the core together, they're good for 50-plus wins next season. The Thunder, Rockets and Pelicans are the big wild cards here, depending on how their rosters shape up. So throw Portland into the mix with Utah, Dallas and Memphis. With all that in mind, the over-under is a 6 1/2 seed.

Doolittle: Seventh. The Blazers should be a little better, but they benefited this season from various misfortunes suffered by teams elsewhere in the West. Also, Portland will be hard-pressed to repeat the excellent health of this season's roster.

5. Fact or Fiction: Damian Lillard will win the West as a Blazer.
Arnovitz: Fiction, though not unthinkable. Figure he has 10 seasons ahead of him, and the next three are unlikely. If he can lure a big free agent to Portland, or they can aggregate some assets to trade for one, or a very high pick that becomes an elite player, they'd certainly have a puncher's chance. But size and location of market continue to be a tough hurdle for the franchise when it comes to talent acquisition.

Elhassan: This is tough, as Golden State seems to be on a path of perpetual excellence and the tough competition in the West. I'm going to lean toward fiction.

Haberstroh: Fiction. I look at Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry and the duo in OKC, and just can't see Lillard coming out on top anytime soon. Sure, anything is possible, and Lillard has proved doubters wrong. But this is a 44-win team that caught a break with Blake Griffin and Chris Paul injuries. Would this even be a question if those guys were healthy? I love the Blazers' youth, but Portland's fanbase knows all-too-well that a bright future doesn't always work out as planned.

Doolittle: Fiction. Portland's young foundation is exciting and the combination of Terry Stotts and Neil Olshey overseeing things is as good as it gets. But there is just so much competition in the West and if OKC stays together, it's going to be tough to navigate through the Thunder, Warriors and Spurs any time soon.

Pelton: Fiction. It's worth remembering that over the last 16 seasons, only five different teams have won the Western Conference. The odds are against just about any team that's not already in the mix reaching that level. As much as Portland has done correctly in its post-LaMarcus Aldridge rebuild, the Blazers are still going to need a lot of good decisions and good fortune to win the West.
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So, we were the youngest team to make the playoffs and third youngest team in the league, our guys got two rounds worth of valuable playoff experience none of the other young teams got, we have a top GM, a top coach and shit ton of cap space, but we're are going to slide to the 6th - 8th seed while teams like NOP, SAC and MIN, who chronically underachieve are going to miraculously overtake us? Ok, sure. If you experts say so. Won't be the first time the "experts" were wrong about this team.

BNM
 
Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: With Moe Harkless, Allen Crabbe and Meyers Leonard restricted free agents, the Trail Blazers can go fishing in the broader free-agent market and come back and match any outside offers for those young guys. Money isn't generally an issue in Portland, and there's a good bet the Trail Blazers will opt to retain at least two of those guys.
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Speaking like a guy who was assigned to cover the team and knows a little bit about Olsheys plans in the summer.

This is directly in line with what I think we should all expect come free agency. Not really a shocker coming into the situation though.
 
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