1. New Orleans Pelicans
Players: Anthony Davis (21), Jrue Holiday (24), Darius Miller (24), Austin Rivers (22), Russ Smith (23), Jeff Withey (24), Patric Young (22)
It's the NBA, so it should come as no surprise that the allure of one superstar can power a team straight to the top of the rankings. A true two-way star, Davis is the best player on the planet under the age of 25 and probably not that far away from being the third-best player on the planet, period. Holiday didn't have the impact expected last season, as he battled injuries en route to missing 48 games, but he's still a high level point guard capable of playing both ends of the court (and he's only 24!).
Beyond Davis and Holiday, the list withers down to players fighting to be rotation players in the NBA, chief among them Austin Rivers, whose sophomore NBA season was an improvement over his rookie year, but he still has a long way to go. With the departure of Brian Roberts, Rivers will have a shot at some backup point guard minutes, but he's got to show better offensive efficiency to justify playing him.
2. Washington Wizards
Players: Brad Beal (21), Otto Porter (21), Glen Rice Jr. (23), Kevin Seraphin (24), John Wall (24)
I caught a lot of flak from Wizards fans for calling Washington's backcourt the third best in the league, but when you place the under-25 age restriction, it is quite formidable. Wall has developed into the defensive powerhouse he was projected to be out of high school, and his 3-point percentage has made the steady climb from "don't even think about shooting it" to "respectable." Meanwhile, Beal has one of the purest strokes in the league, and is growing as a defender and playmaker off the bounce.
The other three young Wizards all bring different things to the table: Seraphin already has been a rotation player for Washington but saw his minutes halved last season. He'll have to fight vets such as Kris Humphries and DeJuan Blair, and stands a good chance at being a bench spectator again as he plays out his qualifying offer. Porter and Rice have a similar battle ahead of them, as they try to carve out wing minutes behind Beal, Paul Pierce and Martell Webster.
3. Milwaukee Bucks
Players Giannis Antetokounmpo (19), John Henson (23), Damien Inglis (19), Brandon Knight (22), Kendall Marshall (23), Khris Middleton (23), Johnny O'Bryant (21), Jabari Parker (19), Nate Wolters (23)
The Bucks are exploding with potential: Antetokounmpo had something of a cult following last season as the pleasant surprise in a disappointing draft class, and he parlayed a solid rookie season into a strong summer league performance, followed by flashes at the FIBA World Cup. Henson really took advantage of the absence of Larry Sanders, scoring efficiently around the rim and rebounding at a high rate on both ends of the court. And, of course, 2014 second overall pick Parker is projected to develop into a scoring machine, with comparisons to Carmelo Anthony.
Knight led the team in scoring last season, but he's probably best suited as a combo guard off the bench. Middleton had a nice sophomore campaign, with deep range and potential to be a lockdown wing defender. Both Marshall and Wolters had stretches as competent playmakers, although shooting concerns still follow them. All in all, Milwaukee has a nice combination of potential stars and savvy role players in the making.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
Players: Anthony Bennett (21), Gorgui Dieng (24), Zach LaVine (19), Shabazz Muhammad (21), Ricky Rubio (23), Andrew Wiggins (19)
Not far behind Milwaukee are the Wolves, who greatly improved their stash of young talent after completing the Kevin Love trade, with 2014 No. 1 overall pick Wiggins being the crown jewel of that haul. At this stage, his offense is probably behind his defense, but he showed flashes during summer league of being able to become a prolific (if inefficient) scorer out of the gate. Bennett, the No. 1 overall pick in 2013, had a rough rookie season due to a mixture of injury, lack of opportunity, bad environment and his own laziness, but bounced back strong in summer league and is expected to closer fulfill the potential exhibited in college.
As for Minnesota drafted talent, Dieng followed a late-season flourish in Minnesota with an eye-opening performance at the FIBA World Cup, and LaVine has a ton of promise as a top-shelf athlete with range. Rubio is just 23, but time is running out for him to take the next step in development, while Muhammad is looking at three more players ahead of him on the depth chart in Bennett, Wiggins and Thaddeus Young.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
Players: Matt Dellavedova (24), Joe Harris (23), Kyrie Irving (22), Alex Kirk (22), Erik Murphy (23), Dwight Powell (23), Tristan Thompson (23), Dion Waiters (22)
Remember when I said some teams cash in their youth for "win now" vets? That's exactly what Cleveland did when it moved players such as Tyler Zeller and Sergey Karasev in cap-clearing deals to sign LeBron James, then traded Wiggins and Bennett in the Kevin Love deal. The Cavs are a markedly better team, projected to contend for a Finals appearance, but they managed to still hold onto a few young pieces, most notably FIBA World Cup MVP Kyrie Irving. He's racked up several individual accolades in his young career, but the next stage is more difficult: figuring out how to fit his brilliance within the context of the needs of the team, and the inevitable sacrifices that come along with that.
His fellow backcourt mate Waiters has that same struggle ahead of him, and if he had issues being perceived as a second banana to Irving before, it remains to be seen how he'll handle being the fourth option. Still, he's a power guard who can play either backcourt position, so that gives Cleveland some flexibility. Thompson is an energy big looking to take a leap into being something more than just energy, and Dellavedova has been a pleasant find as a backup point guard.
6. Utah Jazz
Players: Trey Burke (21), Alec Burks (23), Ian Clark (23), Jack Cooley (23), Dante Exum (19), Derrick Favors (23), Carrick Felix (24), Rudy Gobert (22), Gordon Hayward (24), Rodney Hood (21), Enes Kanter (22), Brock Motum (23), Kevin Murphy (24), Toure Murry (24)
I might be in a minority, but I'm still optimistic about Utah's talented youth corps. Favors turned in his best offensive season by any metric, but his defense suffered as a result; part of that can be attributed to a young team that had many defensive liabilities playing a meaningless season (the Jazz started 4-19 last season), but it's on him to figure out the balance. Hayward suffered a horrendous shooting season, and much of that can be attributed to too heavy an offensive burden placed on him in a contract year, but thanks to the Charlotte Hornets, Hayward received a max deal, and the hope is new coach Quin Snyder will create a more egalitarian offensive environment that is less reliant on Hayward creating shots for himself and others. Elsewhere, Exum is one to watch as far as "star potential," while Gobert had a nice summer league and FIBA World Cup and can be an impact player as a long athlete on the front line.
7. Detroit Pistons
Players: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (21), Spencer Dinwiddie (21), Andre Drummond (21), Tony Mitchell (22), Greg Monroe (24), Peyton Siva (23)
This is where the ranking gets muddy; Detroit has an embarrassment of big man riches, but likely cannot have both. Drummond has enormous upside as an athletic, above-the-rim finishing, elite rebounding big, but a lot of his development hinges on being able to play with guards who will look for him, and Detroit is short on those. His defense is not as good as one would expect, but the belief is Stan Van Gundy will help mold him in the same way Dwight Howard was molded a decade ago. The other frontcourt talent, Monroe, has a nice back-to-the-basket game and excels from the elbow, but in order to reach his full potential, he's probably got to leave Detroit (and if his acceptance of the qualifying offer is any indication, he most likely is spending his last season in a Pistons uniform).
Caldwell-Pope's stroke did not follow him from college, but he's an athletic wing with potential on both ends of the court, and Dinwiddie was a projected lottery pick until a torn ACL ended his season prematurely.
8. Golden State Warriors
Players: Harrison Barnes (22), Aaron Craft (23), Draymond Green (24), Ognjen Kuzmic (24), Nemanja Nedovic (23), Klay Thompson (24), Mitchell Watt (24)
A lot is up in the air for the Warriors this season: a new head coach in Steve Kerr with a new offensive system that will hopefully liberate the untapped potential in this roster while maintaining the defensive identity that made them successful last season. Within that context, this season will determine (a) the future of Barnes as a draft-day bust or player who was misused for the first two years of his career, and (b) whether Thompson is the caliber of player worth possibly passing up Love for (not to mention awarding a max contract to). In some respects, it's a good problem to have, especially when your third-best young player is a savvy, wise beyond his years player like Green, but it will be curious to see where Golden State places on next year's ranking.
9. Sacramento Kings
Players: Sim Bhullar (21), DeMarcus Cousins (24), Ray McCallum (23), Ben McLemore (21), Eric Moreland (22), Nik Stauskas (20), Derrick Williams (23)
No one debates the talent of Cousins, but the question is if the Kings are the organization to unlock his potential. The roster surrounding him is a poor complement, and he's been coddled and enabled to never grow and mature. The hope is a summer with USA Basketball will have exposed him to better work habits of peers and in turn foster a more mature worldview, but that might be wishful thinking. That said, he's still a threat to go 20-10 any time he steps on the court, and while I don't think that's enough to get the Kings to the postseason, they should be one of the best lottery teams this season. Stauskas was a nice draft addition as a shooter who can make plays, but the rest of this roster has middling role players at best.
10. Orlando Magic
Players: Evan Fournier (21), Aaron Gordon (19), Maurice Harkless (21), Tobias Harris (22), Devyn Marble (21), Andrew Nicholson (24), Kyle O'Quinn (24), Victor Oladipo (22), Elfrid Payton (20), Nikola Vucevic (23)
Looking at its under-25 talent (which makes up the majority of their roster), Orlando might be the best defensive team in the league in two years. Oladipo and Gordon have the potential to be perennial all-defensive team selections, while Payton and Fournier can be high-level defenders as well. The question is can they combine to provide enough defense to make up for the shortcomings of players like Harris and Vucevic, and can those players' offense make up for the short-term offensive struggles of the defenders. In all, the Magic are looking at a roster that's a nice collection of talent but eventually will be packaged off for ready-made vet talent.
11. Charlotte Hornets
Players: Bismack Biyombo (22), PJ Hairston (21), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (20), Lance Stephenson (24), Kemba Walker (24), Noah Vonleh (19), Cody Zeller (21)
Last year, I gave Charlotte credit for its collection of talent while lamenting its lack of a young, star-caliber talent; this offseason, it went out and acquired someone (Stephenson) who has that potential. Don't get the Hall of Fame highlight reel ready for him, but Stephenson gives the Hornets a perimeter player who can attack off the dribble, create for others and hurt defenses from the perimeter, all while being a high level defender. He's got his share of unpredictability in behavior, but he landed in an ideal situation in Charlotte.
Kidd-GIlchrist is all-world defensively, but his offense remains so painfully underdeveloped that it's holding back his progression as a talent (but he's just 20!). Walker is a victim of living in a golden era for point guards, making him serviceable but replaceable, and Vonleh and Zeller are both mobile, face-up bigs who are more promise than production at this stage.
12. San Antonio Spurs
Players: Kyle Anderson (20), Bryce Cotton (22), Cory Joseph (23), Kawhi Leonard (23)
The good news for the Spurs: Finals MVP Leonard is an excellent building block for the future. The bad news: There isn't much in the pipeline at all. Leonard has really grown as an all-round talent, and while it's tough to identify what he's elite at offensively, he's good enough at everything to make moving his role around very easy. Anderson is the sort of high basketball IQ talent that seems to always flourish in San Antonio, but he'll need to prove he's not a total defensive liability moving forward.
