ESPN Kevin Pelton today projects us to finish 6 games above .500

[Nikolokolus]

44 wins is not a goal any team should shoot for, thats barely above .500. The 8th seed had 50 wins a couple years ago. I'm not saying this team will get 50+ wins but that should be the goal. There should be a realistic chance of it happening. Teams like Denver and Golden State were supposed to be borderline playoff teams last year but were much better. If the Blazers don't have any chance at being a respectable playoff team than it would be best to build towards future seasons.

For a team that was as bad as it was last year 44 wins would be a pretty damned good turn-around. Of course fans are always going to expect more, that's the nature of fanatics, but a 50+ win "goal" isn't particularly realistic given the turnover we saw in the roster.

 

[Nikolokolus]

espn shows no love to blazers ever. not enough kia and state farm contracts for national attention. just look at their power rankings vs. everyone else. most have blazers at 6, espn has them at 7 while the non commercialized ones have them at 3-4. next week's will be even funnier since this week was "the blazers haven't played anyone hard, except the spurs, who are the top team, but they always beat them in portland, so it's not like it took skill, it was sheer dumb black magic. just wait till they play the dominant 3-6 nets."

the difference between this year and years past asside from an excellent team is our boys aren't listening to the hype or allowing refs to get in their heads. they smile at horrible foul calls and stick a 3 pointer where the sun dont shine.

so the difference between 6 and 7 is significant? And I don't really know what you mean by "non-commercialized" rankings. Amateurs? If you don't like the human rankings perhaps then you'll trust ones based on statistical models where there's no human input. Hollinger's model puts at 6, I'd have to look around at some of the others, but I'm guessing they're similar too.

 

[WillG]

After the way we played in Boston & Toronto - I'm not sold just yet.
We should have thrashed those two teams and we were VERY lucky to come away with two wins.
Defense is still a problem - particularly Aldridge and the interior points in the paint. Crisp execution on both sides of the ball could be better.

I will say that having this record, with the way we have played and with the blatant biased reffing, is promising though; because I feel once we do 'click', the team can take it to another level.
The biggest obstacle to the Blazers, and the only thing holding them back IMO, seems to be themselves.

 

[Blazer Fanatic]

Cool

Kevin Pelton ‏@kpelton 5m
The "projections" at the end are the level at which a team would be expected to play *the rest of the season*: http://t.co/wJvJg1mgG8
They're not a projection of wins, because they don't include record to date. So the Blazers' actual projected win total would be higher

So when a Ben Golliver type put out, "Pelton: SCHOENE Projection System Predicts 41 Wins, Lottery Trip For Blazers", is Kevin saying that's not a prediction of wins? Where is the disconnect? Does the word prediction mean something other than what it means to Kevin, or Ben, or basically anyone reading what he's saying? Can someone please explain how this is not semantics, if not the exact same thing?

I don't fault anyone for playing with numbers or looking at data in different ways, but it seems disingenuous to say a team is playing at a 41 win pace or level based on a system, and then say, but I'm not saying they are a 41 win team. That's the way everyone interprets it. And you can't fault fans when the guys who report on this stuff for a living interpret it that way as well.

 

[cmeese47]

Just an fyi for anyone who sees this as a slight if you add Peltons projections to our current record the team is just slightly over a 47 wins which should make them a solid playoff team.

 

[PapaG]

So when a Ben Golliver type put out, "Pelton: SCHOENE Projection System Predicts 41 Wins, Lottery Trip For Blazers", is Kevin saying that's not a prediction of wins? Where is the disconnect? Does the word prediction mean something other than what it means to Kevin, or Ben, or basically anyone reading what he's saying? Can someone please explain how this is not semantics, if not the exact same thing?

I don't fault anyone for playing with numbers or looking at data in different ways, but it seems disingenuous to say a team is playing at a 41 win pace or level based on a system, and then say, but I'm not saying they are a 41 win team. That's the way everyone interprets it. And you can't fault fans when the guys who report on this stuff for a living interpret it that way as well.

Those were the predictions before the season, though. As the team performs better, the prediction adjusts, and the predictor claims credit for it.

I wish I could have that sort of arrangement when I pick stocks. What a gig predicting NBA records must be.

"Here is my prediction as of right now, but if the stock overperforms, I'll go back in time and claim credit for the stock, even though I originally undervalued it".

Sweet.

 

[PapaG]

Just an fyi for anyone who sees this as a slight if you add Peltons projections to our current record the team is just slightly over a 47 wins which should make them a solid playoff team.

...and if the team gets to 15-4, then the Blazers will be projected to win 51ish games, although they are still a 44 win team (or 41, apparently, before the season started). I can't be the only one not buying those type of adjustments based on present reality.

 

[PapaG]

If the Blazers somehow go 56-26, they will still be predicted to win 44 games. They just outperformed the prediction.

Not Pelton's fault!

 

[MickZagger]

Who's Kevin Pelton? Should I care what he has to say?

 

[PapaG]

Who's Kevin Pelton? Should I care what he has to say?

Apparently he's a lurker on Rip City Two. That's all I know about him.

 

[rasheedfan2005]

so the difference between 6 and 7 is significant? And I don't really know what you mean by "non-commercialized" rankings. Amateurs? If you don't like the human rankings perhaps then you'll trust ones based on statistical models where there's no human input. Hollinger's model puts at 6, I'd have to look around at some of the others, but I'm guessing they're similar too.

I mean the blogs that don't get loads of traffic so they have no reason to be biased towards teams with large kia contracts.

 

[Blazer Fanatic]

Those were the predictions before the season, though. As the team performs better, the prediction adjusts, and the predictor claims credit for it.

I wish I could have that sort of arrangement when I pick stocks. What a gig predicting NBA records must be.

"Here is my prediction as of right now, but if the stock overperforms, I'll go back in time and claim credit for the stock, even though I originally undervalued it".

Sweet.

That's the way I interpret it. I was hoping someone could show me that I'm missing something here, but it doesn't appear so. Thanks for the response.

 

[Blazer Fanatic]

...and if the team gets to 15-4, then the Blazers will be projected to win 51ish games, although they are still a 44 win team (or 41, apparently, before the season started). I can't be the only one not buying those type of adjustments based on present reality.

This exactly. lol Which is why I am confident that my new "SCORE-BOARD" app I am developing to predict play-off success will make millions. Don't worry, I won't forget y'all when I make it big!

 

[PapaG]

This exactly. lol Which is why I am confident that my new "SCORE-BOARD" app I am developing to predict play-off success will make millions. Don't worry, I won't forget y'all when I make it big!

Haha! I'm going to predict records after the regular season is over, and pick a champion after the playoffs are over. I'll bet all of my money on those predictions!

 

[mgb]

That's about right though don't you think. I'd have to go back, but I think I said 46 or so wins. Man our schedule in March is BRUTAL!

Brutal smutal! The tougher the competition the better the Blazers play.

We will be the #1 seed this year and kick every team we face in the playoffs. We will only get better as the season goes on!

GO BLAZERS!!!