ESPN NBA Power Rankings - Week 4

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SlyPokerDog

SlyPokerDog

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10. Portland Trail Blazers
2016-17 record: 7-4
Previous ranking: 9
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The Blazers obviously won't be losing many games when both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum stay in 30-point territory, which actually happened twice last week. ‎But here's the thing: Do you really want to ask those two to do thatmuch? Fears coming into the season that the Blazers' supporting cast around their backcourt studs isn't quite as good as advertised persist, but then again: Maybe this is the new normal. McCollum has scored 30-plus points in three of his last five outings.
 
They have the Jazz and Thunder ranked ahead of us at #8 & 9, the Rockets ranked at #11.
 
The way the Blazers have been playing, I think that 10th is about right. You can always nitpick about Utah or OKC, but Stein's right that we're getting not much from anybody not wearing the letter O or #3.
 
e_blazer said:
The way the Blazers have been playing, I think that 10th is about right. You can always nitpick about Utah or OKC, but Stein's right that we're getting not much from anybody not wearing the letter O or #3.
Click to expand...

But that's basically how our offense is built. Our roster simply isn't built correctly for our personnel. I love Olshey, but Stotts was brought in to appease LaMarcus. He had just won with Dirk, and they brought him in to run a similar offense around LMA.

Then LMA left.

Now we're stuck with a bunch of shitty replacements for Aldridge, and the offense doesn't run nearly as smooth. We are ball dominant. We don't move the ball nearly enough. We have a bunch of guys that can't shoot (Plumlee, Aminu, Davis, Turner, etc) so there aren't a lot of options for Dame to kick out to. We don't have a good distributor on the second unit. We can't run the same offense around Turner because Turner can't shoot.

Half our team is built to run (Turner/Harkless/Aminu) and half our team is built for a pick and roll offense. I think that's why things feel so discombobulated.
 
Natebishop3 said:
But that's basically how our offense is built. Our roster simply isn't built correctly for our personnel. I love Olshey, but Stotts was brought in to appease LaMarcus. He had just won with Dirk, and they brought him in to run a similar offense around LMA.

Then LMA left.

Now we're stuck with a bunch of shitty replacements for Aldridge, and the offense doesn't run nearly as smooth. We are ball dominant. We don't move the ball nearly enough. We have a bunch of guys that can't shoot (Plumlee, Aminu, Davis, Turner, etc) so there aren't a lot of options for Dame to kick out to. We don't have a good distributor on the second unit. We can't run the same offense around Turner because Turner can't shoot.

Half our team is built to run (Turner/Harkless/Aminu) and half our team is built for a pick and roll offense. I think that's why things feel so discombobulated.
Click to expand...
I don't disagree with any of this. But I just wanted to point out that we've only added one new player to last season's rotation. And last season our offense was actually better than it was when we had LA. I don't really know what to make of that, other than I do think we played above our talent level last season and I've never been sold on Terry's coaching.
 
blue9 said:
I don't disagree with any of this. But I just wanted to point out that we've only added one new player to last season's rotation. And last season our offense was actually better than it was when we had LA. I don't really know what to make of that, other than I do think we played above our talent level last season and I've never been sold on Terry's coaching.
Click to expand...

I think we snuck up on people last year, and we're good enough this season to beat bad teams, but we're having a really difficult time beating good teams. It reminds me of when we had Roy and McMillan. It's basically the same offense. The guard dribbles, waits for the pick, and then either tries to score or kicks out. Unfortunately we're learning the same issue that we had with Roy. If the other coach figures out that nobody but Dame is scoring, he just traps on the pick and Dame is forced into either a bad shot or a bad pass.

On nights when both Dame and CJ are hot, we're a much harder team to defend because they can't trap Dame, but if CJ is cold........ shit goes south real fast.
 
NBA.com has us 10th as well.......and our next opponent at #9. BTW where is the Chicago thread?
 
Natebishop3 said:
But that's basically how our offense is built. Our roster simply isn't built correctly for our personnel. I love Olshey, but Stotts was brought in to appease LaMarcus. He had just won with Dirk, and they brought him in to run a similar offense around LMA.

Then LMA left.

Now we're stuck with a bunch of shitty replacements for Aldridge, and the offense doesn't run nearly as smooth. We are ball dominant. We don't move the ball nearly enough. We have a bunch of guys that can't shoot (Plumlee, Aminu, Davis, Turner, etc) so there aren't a lot of options for Dame to kick out to. We don't have a good distributor on the second unit. We can't run the same offense around Turner because Turner can't shoot.

Half our team is built to run (Turner/Harkless/Aminu) and half our team is built for a pick and roll offense. I think that's why things feel so discombobulated.
Click to expand...
Our offense is not the problem with Stotts or Neil.

ORTG ratings:
13-14: 3rd
14-15: 9th
15-16: 6th

So far, 16-17: 14th

But the bigger problem is our 24th ranked defense.
 
Natebishop3 said:
I think we snuck up on people last year, and we're good enough this season to beat bad teams, but we're having a really difficult time beating good teams. It reminds me of when we had Roy and McMillan. It's basically the same offense. The guard dribbles, waits for the pick, and then either tries to score or kicks out. Unfortunately we're learning the same issue that we had with Roy. If the other coach figures out that nobody but Dame is scoring, he just traps on the pick and Dame is forced into either a bad shot or a bad pass.

On nights when both Dame and CJ are hot, we're a much harder team to defend because they can't trap Dame, but if CJ is cold........ shit goes south real fast.
Click to expand...
Yeah, and this is why it's important to have an actual playbook rather than a loose offensive philosophy. The only time Terry diagrams a good play is on an in-bounds play - and even then we're just as likely to bungle the whole thing as we are to come up with a nifty basket.
 
blue9 said:
Yeah, and this is why it's important to have an actual playbook rather than a loose offensive philosophy. The only time Terry diagrams a good play is on an in-bounds play - and even then we're just as likely to bungle the whole thing as we are to come up with a nifty basket.
Click to expand...
Dude our offense is fine. Terry has sets. You see Dame or CJ or Evan calling out plays all the damn time when they bring the ball up the floor. Instead of old-school sets that end in the same way every time, Terry's offense lets guys read and react through a bunch of options after running the initial action. You watch the games. Pay attention to all the off ball movement that happens when Dame/CJ start the offense. Even if it seems like one on five, it truly is not the case.

There's a reason why our guys like Nic/CJ/Aminu/Hark/Dame/etc are always among the leaders in distance run per game.

Nearly every NBA media person/coach lauds Terry for his offensive sets. Of all the shit to criticize Terry for, offense is at the bottom of the list.
 
SlyPokerDog said:
The Blazers obviously won't be losing many games when both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum stay in 30-point territory, which actually happened twice last week. ‎But here's the thing: Do you really want to ask those two to do thatmuch? Fears coming into the season that the Blazers' supporting cast around their backcourt studs isn't quite as good as advertised persist, but then again: Maybe this is the new normal. McCollum has scored 30-plus points in three of his last five outings.
Click to expand...

On the bright side at least we have a reliable 2nd scorer. Some teams in the top 16 don't have that.
 
yuyuza1 said:
Dude our offense is fine. Terry has sets. You see Dame or CJ or Evan calling out plays all the damn time when they bring the ball up the floor. Instead of old-school sets that end in the same way every time, Terry's offense lets guys read and react through a bunch of options after running the initial action. You watch the games. Pay attention to all the off ball movement that happens when Dame/CJ start the offense. Even if it seems like one on five, it truly is not the case.

There's a reason why our guys like Nic/CJ/Aminu/Hark/Dame/etc are always among the leaders in distance run per game.

Nearly every NBA media person/coach lauds Terry for his offensive sets. Of all the shit to criticize Terry for, offense is at the bottom of the list.
Click to expand...
By and large I think our offense is fine, but that's mostly because we have a couple of pretty amazing offensive players. When push comes to shove, and we're in the middle of a 7 minute scoring drought Terry shits the bed. We have motion for the sake of motion, but running a 3-man weave isn't something I'm going to laud Terry for - I ran that shit in 3rd grade.
 
blue9 said:
By and large I think our offense is fine, but that's mostly because we have a couple of pretty amazing offensive players. When push comes to shove, and we're in the middle of a 7 minute scoring drought Terry shits the bed. We have motion for the sake of motion, but running a 3-man weave isn't something I'm going to laud Terry for - I ran that shit in 3rd grade.
Click to expand...
Yes, while that weave is happening up top, there is off-ball screening happening down low.

As a guide, here's our rankings for distance traveled on offense during Terry's tenure:

13-14: 5th, Spurs #1
14-15: 5th, Spurs #1
15-16: 3rd, Jazz #1, Spurs #2,

So far, 16-17: 2nd, Sixers #1.

There is so much happening beyond the actual action with the ball here that confuses defenses. The defense is the problem, not the offense. And that largely is due to personnel. We have 0 rim protection, and we have no on-ball defenders.
 
yuyuza1 said:
Our offense is not the problem with Stotts or Neil.

ORTG ratings:
13-14: 3rd
14-15: 9th
15-16: 6th

So far, 16-17: 14th

But the bigger problem is our 24th ranked defense.
Click to expand...

How much of being ranked 14th is just Dame being unconscious right now? If Dame goes through a cold patch, which he has been known to do, how will our offense look?
 
Natebishop3 said:
How much of being ranked 14th is just Dame being unconscious right now? If Dame goes through a cold patch, which he has been known to do, how will our offense look?
Click to expand...
TBH, I think our two clunkers vs GSW and LAC are really impacting that ranking. I don't think we are middle of the pack offensively once we get some more sample size.

That said, the scary thing about Dame's improvement is that outside of his unbelievable finishing at the rim, everything else looks sustainable. He's drawing more fouls, and this leap is expected given it's his 5th year and his improved health (knock on wood). He's shooting the 3 and the long 2s at about the same % as the rest of his career. His cold patch might not result in a big dropoff as previously given how many FTs he's putting up these days.
 
yuyuza1 said:
Yes, while that weave is happening up top, there is off-ball screening happening down low.

As a guide, here's our rankings for distance traveled on offense during Terry's tenure:

13-14: 5th, Spurs #1
14-15: 5th, Spurs #1
15-16: 3rd, Jazz #1, Spurs #2,

So far, 16-17: 2nd, Sixers #1.

There is so much happening beyond the actual action with the ball here that confuses defenses. The defense is the problem, not the offense. And that largely is due to personnel. We have 0 rim protection, and we have no on-ball defenders.
Click to expand...
Again, I do agree that, for the regular season, our offense is largely fine and defense is the real issue. But I just don't agree that Terry's offense is robust enough when it really matters. Yeah, I know there are flare screen/down screens happening in conjunction with the weave (it'd be a REAL embarrassment if there weren't!). Distance traveled is not a measure of offensive ability or intelligence. Sure, movement is an important aspect of a good offense, but simply having CJ/Crabbe/Harkless run huge circles (which create a lot of distance traveled) hoping to get an open long jumper off a screen isn't a well-designed offense - there needs to be more to it. We need motion going towards the hoop, rather than these huge circles. And again, we so often go through huge scoring droughts, and for someone who is supposedly an offensive genius Terry is usually helpless to stop them.
 
yuyuza1 said:
Our offense is not the problem with Stotts or Neil.

ORTG ratings:
13-14: 3rd
14-15: 9th
15-16: 6th

So far, 16-17: 14th

But the bigger problem is our 24th ranked defense.
Click to expand...
How much of our 24th ranked defense is as a result of turnovers and transition off poor shots from our 14th-ranked offense?
 
I'm very happy with how we are doing. Turner had his best game of the year last night and that is why we had one of our more comfortable wins of the season. What was different? Last night, Turner had shifts with both Dame and CJ. It was very effective. We might want to start Turner and see how that goes. As for shooters for CJ and Dame to pass to, we have two of the best in the league in Leonard and Layman. We have a very versatile roster. Don't obsess over our losses to Clippers and Warriors. Cavs struggled to compete with Warriors during regular season last year and then they won the title. The most important thing you have to do to be a contender is beat all the bad teams. I think the #1 seed is still in play.
 
KingAlbertoJrSpeed said:
I'm very happy with how we are doing. Turner had his best game of the year last night and that is why we had one of our more comfortable wins of the season. What was different? Last night, Turner had shifts with both Dame and CJ. It was very effective. We might want to start Turner and see how that goes. As for shooters for CJ and Dame to pass to, we have two of the best in the league in Leonard and Layman. We have a very versatile roster. Don't obsess over our losses to Clippers and Warriors. Cavs struggled to compete with Warriors during regular season last year and then they won the title. The most important thing you have to do to be a contender is beat all the bad teams. I think the #1 seed is still in play.
Click to expand...
But in order to win those 64 games and beat out the Warriors like you predicted, we better step it up a bit right?
 
It should take more time to figure out.
Some new players (Turner, Napier who IMO should play), some players coming back a little bit slow from the summer (Ed Davis), Meyers just now getting into the rotation. Vonleh that needs to regain confidence. Some new rotations, many (too many?) bigs that Stotts should figure out how to maximize their ability and keep them happy (making decisions based on playing the right players in the right matchups should do both). There are some lessons learned, like if you wanna play with both Turner and Crabbe you better have Harkless or Meyers at the 4 for spacing and creativity.
It'll take some time but we'll get there. CJ started a bit slow and is now getting in rhythm. We still don't look amazing but we're starting to look better
 
These days, our rebounding, more so even than our poor interior defense, is our biggest problem.

As others have pointed out, our offense isn't the problem. We are scoring 3.6 more PTS/G than last year. Fix the rebounding and it will go a long way to fixing our other problems.

Last year, we were 5th in the league in TRB/G at 45.5. This year, we are dead last at 41.2 TRB/G. Last year we were 3rd in the league in ORB/G at 11.6. This year, we are also dead last in ORB/G at 7.8.

How the fuck does a team, with no significant roster changes, go from basically the 4th best rebounding team in the league to dead last? Seriously, how does that happen?

A lot of that is on Ed Davis' disappearing act, but he's not the only one. I feel compelled to call out Ed, after I relentlessly defended him, saying he was just as good a rebounder and a better player than Kennth Faried, when rumors of Fareid's availability were first mentioned. Right now, Ed is making me look like an idiot. I want last year's Ed Davis back, please.

BNM
 
yuyuza1 said:
That, and our complete inability to get defensive rebounds are really hurting our defense.
Click to expand...

Wish I could like this a billion times.

Our rebounding sucks and is our biggest problem. It's impossible to get out rebounded every night and finish the season with a winning record. We're BARELY beating the dregs of the league, the teams we should be beating by double digits, because we can't rebound the basketball.

Watching all the film in the world and refining the offense won't do a damn bit of good if we don't start boxing the fuck out! Jeezus guys, that's about as fundamental as it gets. Boxing out was one of the very first skills I taught 5 and 6 years olds when I coached YMCA ball. Even little kids that don't yet have the motor skills and hand eye coordination to dribble and shoot, can learn to box out. So do it!!!

BNM
 
Dame was our second leading rebounder yesterday (8 to Plum's 9, Ed's 7. and Leonard's 4). How in the hell does a 6'3" PG, who's also carrying the scoring load, double up a 7'1" guy like Leonard? It's like the guy has ball repellant on him.
 
e_blazer said:
Dame was our second leading rebounder yesterday (8 to Plum's 9, Ed's 7. and Leonard's 4). How in the hell does a 6'3" PG, who's also carrying the scoring load, double up a 7'1" guy like Leonard? It's like the guy has ball repellant on him.
Click to expand...

I actually can somewhat answer that.

Dame played 1.5x the time that Leonard did - and he got 1.5 times the defensive rebounds that MyLe did. He also got 2 offensive rebounds - which probably shows you that he lives a lot more in the paint in the offense than MyLe. The bigs, MyLe specifically set a screen far from the interior and see the guards running into the paint. They are not really in position for offensive rebounds.

It still would be nice of the bigs to rebound better. Dame seens to be the only player on the roster whose TRB% has gone up this year.
 
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