ESPN predicts 31 wins
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ebott
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I am flabbergasted by the people voting over. We have one good player. How the hell are we gonna win 31 games with 1 good player?
I feel like the Blazers have two choices. They can either play the veterans (Plumlee, Davis, Aminu and HENDERSOOOOON) and they won't be any good cause they can't shoot. OR they can play the younger guys that can shoot (Leonard, Vonleh, Crabbe and CJ) and they'll probably lose even worse cause there's more to basketball than just shooting. Either way, this team is gonna be disgustingly bad.
I feel like the Blazers have two choices. They can either play the veterans (Plumlee, Davis, Aminu and HENDERSOOOOON) and they won't be any good cause they can't shoot. OR they can play the younger guys that can shoot (Leonard, Vonleh, Crabbe and CJ) and they'll probably lose even worse cause there's more to basketball than just shooting. Either way, this team is gonna be disgustingly bad.
BonesJones
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What's your definition of good? CJ, Meyers, Plumlee, Davis, Aminu, Dame, and Henderson are all good pieces in my eyes. And those who were average will likely improve.
Nikolokolus
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Plumlee, Davis, Aminu and Henderson are all "good" rotation quality players but none of them are probably ever going to make an all-star team or get voted onto an all-NBA team, so how good are they? As for CJ and Meyers both are mystery meat at this point. Maybe some of these guys are going to breakout with enlarged roles, but you can't declare that these guys will "likely" improve; you have no evidence yet. All you can say on August 18th is that you "hope" they will.
BonesJones
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usually 24 and 25 year olds improve... CJ and Meyers mystery is more "how good they'll be" not if they'll be good or not.
The thing is, having an allstar poised to make the next step with good rotation players makes you a 35-40 win team
SheedSoNasty
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Yes, we will be exciting. Yes, we will see growth and development. However, I just don't see this translating into wins this year. I'm going with 27 wins.
BonesJones
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BonesJones
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Orion Bailey
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oldfisherman
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You homers just received a bunch of shinny new bicycles to play with. You can not kick start them and instantly turn them into crotch rockets.
First, you need to test all of the new parts on all of the new bikes to make sure they work properly. New parts do not mean they will work, new parts means they have not been tested yet. Some of the new bikes may not be as good as advertised.
Next, you learn how to balance the bikes just to get a decent feel for the ride.
Once you are comfortable riding, you start working through the gears. Most people start in low gear and then work their way up, going faster and faster. Starting in high gear might work in certain situations, put it would put you in last place when competing in a race.
To win a race, it takes a trained team of quality bicycles. The more time a team has trained together, the better their odds are of winning a race. New bicycle teams seldom finish very high in bicycle races, even when only going head to head with other teams in training.
The very latest highest tech bicycles need to train together for several seasons or more before they become a threat to win a race.
Drops club and returns to cave on his 30 year old John Deere tractor. Darn city folks, always in a hurry.
First, you need to test all of the new parts on all of the new bikes to make sure they work properly. New parts do not mean they will work, new parts means they have not been tested yet. Some of the new bikes may not be as good as advertised.
Next, you learn how to balance the bikes just to get a decent feel for the ride.
Once you are comfortable riding, you start working through the gears. Most people start in low gear and then work their way up, going faster and faster. Starting in high gear might work in certain situations, put it would put you in last place when competing in a race.
To win a race, it takes a trained team of quality bicycles. The more time a team has trained together, the better their odds are of winning a race. New bicycle teams seldom finish very high in bicycle races, even when only going head to head with other teams in training.
The very latest highest tech bicycles need to train together for several seasons or more before they become a threat to win a race.
Drops club and returns to cave on his 30 year old John Deere tractor. Darn city folks, always in a hurry.
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UncleCliffy'sDaddy
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Unless they're doping.....
Nikolokolus
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By that rationale every young player in the NBA should be making some kind of great leap from unknown to great with increased play time. How often is that actually happening around the league? What makes these two guys so special compared with all of the other aspiring young prospects around the league?
Orion Bailey
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That doesn't seem rational. We aren't saying that about Crabbe, because he didn't have breakout games. Guys that have breakout games in the playoffs offensively against one of the best defenses in the league. Makes sense to me on THOSE TWO guys.
B-Roy
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They play for us.
THE HCP
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I'm my honest opinion, Memphis geared their whole defensive strategy around shutting down LA and Dame....... Probably said let ANYBODY else score but those two. Excited to see what CJ and Meyers do this season, but that playoff run can't be used as a measurement of the upcoming season no more than summer league can.
Sent from my Baller-Ass 5.5" iPhone 6+......... FAMS
Nikolokolus
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Say what?
Orion Bailey
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Good point about the defensive focus.
I said it, what do you not understand?
I see HCP's point, but this still doesn't mean its across the board.Now lets say Memphis was keying in on CJ and Leonard and still did what they did. Doesn't that mean they are more inclined, higher percentage, to break out? Doesn't mean everyone in their third year is. Yes the third years is usually the time to break out if your gonna, but many don't. Either way, I see what he is saying and think you generalized it too much.
Nikolokolus
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In what sense did I generalize too much? Lots of young guys flash potential and never put it together consistently (few actually manage it). I wanted to know what makes CJ and Meyers so special compared to all of those other young "promising" prospects that play around the league - aside from "because I believe really hard," or "because they play for the Blazers."Good point about the defensive focus.
I said it, what do you not understand?
Now lets say Memphis was keying in on CJ and Leonard and still did what they did. Doesn't that mean they are more inclined, higher percentage, to break out? Doesn't mean everyone in their third year is. Yes the third years is usually the time to break out if your gonna, but many don't. Either way, I see what he is saying and think you generalized it too much.
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I think 31 is accurate
If we're discussing how many wins at home we will have
If we're discussing how many wins at home we will have
Orion Bailey
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It was already mentioned. Their breakout playoff performances. Not everyone showed that. Crabbe didn't for example. Thus he is not mentioned as a serious contender to break out this next season.
HCP made some good points about opposing defensive strategy, but It still holds pat. Not everyone going into their 3-4th season will break out, but if they are going to, usually this is the time.
CJ and Meyers played well in the playoffs, which gives a viewpoint that they should have a bit higher percentage of probability to break out than most others in their 3-4th years who have NOT shown flashes in the playoffs.
Orion Bailey
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Okay. Im not even that homered up! lol
Nikolokolus
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Sure it's better that they did well than that they didn't, but relying on very small sample sizes - particularly when those guys were allowed to "run free" while Memphis dismantled Damian and Aldridge - tells me that you can't point to that as a reliable predictor of success. At best we can say we have no idea what these guys will do in an expanded role, not that they are "likely" to make a jump (which is what I took issue with).
Orion Bailey
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We will have to agree to disagree on this.
It was a small sample size and Memphis's D didn't center around them, but its not like Memphis left the court. I mean lets be practical for a minute. Both CJ and Meyers were defended at least to an extent. did they draw doubles? No. Did their men lean towards a rotation rather than be in their face? yes. But to say they were left to "run free" is not accurate. I have the game saved on my DVR and watched it last week. Game 4 and game 5. Memphis did not open lanes up for these guys, but they also didn't close them. I think they went up against a D that would be the average of what they would expect this next season.
Regardless of who was defending, they had great games not just anyone in their respective place in the NBA could do. Crabbe had many opportunities and didn't do it all year. So do DWright. Does that mean Crabbe was the focus of the D?
When CJ has been healthy, he has played very well overall in my opinion considering. I see no reason why we shouldn't expect him to break out this next year with an expanded role and what he has shown so far.
Isnt this the long and short of it?
Nikolokolus
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Did Meyers' and CJ's contributions "tilt the court," so to speak? If they were breaking down Memphis' defense wouldn't you expect that to have had a different effect on their teammates or is it maybe more likely that Memphis said, "We can live with anybody but Lillard and Aldridge taking over."
Really good players, playing impact basketball create holes in a defense which in turn creates opportunities for their teammates. The fact that those holes never materialized and those opportunities never presented themselves is telling I think. In the end, even with Meyers and CJ having a good showing in the series, it had no impact on the outcomes of the games - huge blowouts, the Blazers always looked helter skelter, and they weren't even really competitive.
I'm not saying they aren't capable of having breakout years, I'm just saying I don't think the Memphis series is all that valuable for predicting future success (for a variety of reasons).
Really good players, playing impact basketball create holes in a defense which in turn creates opportunities for their teammates. The fact that those holes never materialized and those opportunities never presented themselves is telling I think. In the end, even with Meyers and CJ having a good showing in the series, it had no impact on the outcomes of the games - huge blowouts, the Blazers always looked helter skelter, and they weren't even really competitive.
I'm not saying they aren't capable of having breakout years, I'm just saying I don't think the Memphis series is all that valuable for predicting future success (for a variety of reasons).
Orion Bailey
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Right there is the flaw. They didn't have to because you yourself said Memphis could live with them scoring.
The holes never "materialized" because they didn't have to. They were somewhat already there. Read your statement again, your basically saying this.
And again, everyone is acting as though Memphis's D was only there for two guys. Wish there was a way to email or forward the game I watched to you. CJ AND Meyers broke the D down several times. Just because they didn't break down Mark Gasol And ZBO doesn't mean they still didn't get it done against an elite defense.
Im not saying I expect superstardom next year or they will ever be superstars, but to say that just anyone can do what they did to Memphis last year is simply laughable, which is what got me involved in this convo. People are acting as though anytime the ball went into their hands the Memphis D just laid down on the court or something. Meyers had a run and dunk from the three point line that was contested and he jammed it down their throats. Many times CJ broke down the D, got around them and got to the hoop.
Watch the game again....