Elite: Thunder, Clippers, Spurs
Step down: Grizzlies, Warriors, Rockets, Lakers (yes, Lakers)
Definitely missing the playoffs (largely by design): Utah, Phoenix
Very likely missing the playoffs: Sacramento, New Orleans
So: the final spot is between Dallas, us, the Nuggets and the Wolves. I think Dallas might have the edge because of the quality and proven adaptability of their coach.
Why do I think the Lakers will make it? Because they'll be better without trying to please Dwight Howard, and because Pau Gasol is still fucking good.