ESPN top PFs, WARP projections (Aldridge not in top 10)

[Steelblazer]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9546387/nba-projecting-top-10-power-forwards-warp-2013-14

Dirk, Randolph, Lee also couldn't crack it..

 

[BBert]

Wuh? Someone's got some splanin' to do.

 

[Nate4Prez]

Just more proof WARP is as useless as +/-

 

[Nikolokolus]

Just more proof WARP is as useless as +/-

So you would have said this if LMA had been projected in the top 3?

 

[Rhal]

So you would have said this if LMA had been projected in the top 3?

I would have. Iv never understood WARP and its always seemed as if the team the players on effects the rating more then anything.

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[BBert]

I haven't paid much attention to the other "WARP" threads or bothered to learn out how WARP was calculated until now. I have a bit of a problem with a voodoo-based system that concludes a player who virtually every expert in the field would rate in the top three in the league in his position, is not even in the top 10. So I looked it up.

I don't pretend to have the patience to study it in detail, but having read a decent amount of this:

http://www.sonicscentral.com/warp.html

I have even less faith in WARP than I did before.

I'm going with the 'eye' test.

 

[blue9]

I would have. Iv never understood WARP and its always seemed as if the team the players on effects the rating more then anything.

All of these "advanced" metrics are skewed by the players surrounding the individual that the metric is trying to measure. They try to pretend that they're measurements of individuals, but they are the result of how an individual is used within the context of a team. It's silly for anyone to hold up any single "advanced" metric as a measuring stick by which to rank players. At best these types of stats are used as a very small piece of the puzzle by management/coaching.

 

[blue9]

Just out of curiosity, what is the list (don't have Insider)?

I have a bit of a problem with a voodoo-based system that concludes a player who virtually every expert in the field would rate in the top three in the league in his position, is not even in the top 10.

Oddly enough, I actually agree with their assessment of both LMA and Nic. But not because WARP tells me - I still think these sorts of metrics are a load of BS.

 

[Nate4Prez]

Just out of curiosity, what is the list (don't have Insider)?

1. LeBron James, Miami Heat
2. Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
3. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
4. Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
5. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
6. Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Pelicans
7. Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets
8. Josh Smith, Detroit Pistons
9. Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder
10. Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks

 

[tlongII]

1. LeBron James, Miami Heat
2. Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
3. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
4. Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
5. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
6. Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Pelicans
7. Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets
8. Josh Smith, Detroit Pistons
9. Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder
10. Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks

Someone please tell me that list is a joke please...

 

[Nate4Prez]

Someone please tell me that list is a joke please...

The list is not a joke, the statistical measurement in which they are ranked is a joke.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

So you would have said this if LMA had been projected in the top 3?

If LMA was in the top three, the statistic would be showing itself to be more accurate.

 

[Nate4Prez]

Who's the best power forward in the NBA?

Sebastian Christensen, ESPN Deportes: LaMarcus Aldridge. He has great size, a well-rounded post game and a decent 18-foot jumper. While he lacks consistent health and a good team, he is the power forward with the best skill set in the NBA.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-on-5-PF-130807/debating-nba-power-forwards

 

[Masbee]

1. LeBron James, Miami Heat
2. Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
3. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
4. Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
5. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
6. Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Pelicans
7. Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets
8. Josh Smith, Detroit Pistons
9. Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder
10. Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks

That list is laughable.

Use your eyes and you know that Blake Griffin and Anthony Davis are not Top 5 players in the NBA.

 

[Masbee]

Just out of curiosity, what is the list (don't have Insider)?


Oddly enough, I actually agree with their assessment of both LMA and Nic. But not because WARP tells me - I still think these sorts of metrics are a load of BS.

But why would you say that?

Last season, before the team went into tank mode, our starting five (which, you know, includes Aldridge and Batum) could hang with ANY starting five in the NBA - and that included the Heat in Miami. It was the bench that did us in.

Not saying our team - even with a good bench - is going to make noise in the playoffs, but I don't see how you can dis those two when they are key players to a very good unit.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

But why would you say that?

Last season, before the team went into tank mode, our starting five (which, you know, includes Aldridge and Batum) could hang with ANY starting five in the NBA - and that included the Heat in Miami. It was the bench that did us in.

Not saying our team - even with a good bench - is going to make noise in the playoffs, but I don't see how you can dis those two when they are key players to a very good unit.

The stat ranks Batum highly and Aldridge not so much, which is the same thing that Blue9 says. Batum's injury was (arguably) the catalyst to our downfall last season (20-19 before, 13-30 after). Is it possible that Nic is more important to the team's success than Aldridge? One might make that claim.

 

[Masbee]

The stat ranks Batum highly and Aldridge not so much, which is the same thing that Blue9 says. Batum's injury was (arguably) the catalyst to our downfall last season (20-19 before, 13-30 after). Is it possible that Nic is more important to the team's success than Aldridge? One might make that claim.

More than one would NOT make that claim.

 

[PapaG]

The stat ranks Batum highly and Aldridge not so much, which is the same thing that Blue9 says. Batum's injury was (arguably) the catalyst to our downfall last season (20-19 before, 13-30 after). Is it possible that Nic is more important to the team's success than Aldridge? One might make that claim.

One could, I suppose, except that every other advanced metric outside of WARP says that LMA was more important to the team's success, and by a large margin.

ON/OFF court is a far better measure than WARP in terms of comparing teammates, since it takes into account every minute of the season, and the team's success with that player on or off the court.

http://www.82games.com/1213/1213POR.HTM

 

[Draco]

I like how the Pelicans have two guys in the top6.

 

[Masbee]

One could, I suppose, except that every other advanced metric outside of WARP says that LMA was more important to the team's success, and by a large margin.

ON/OFF court is a far better measure than WARP in terms of comparing teammates, since it takes into account every minute of the season, and the team's success with that player on or off the court.

http://www.82games.com/1213/1213POR.HTM

Yep. That 82 games stats - fancy this - aligns (more or less) with the eye test.

The entire stinking, fucking bench is all negative numbers. Big negatives.

JJ was a wash. Lots of hustle. Lots of stats. But, just couldn't make up for the negatives on defense (and playing out of position).

Wes was solid.

Lillard and Batum are really, really good offensive players.

To my eyes, Lillard was more impactful. But, I guess his terrible defense undercut his +/- compared to Batum picking his spots.

And, LaMarcus is the most impactful on the team. Not in a dominating way like a LeBron. But the best of a good bunch.

I don't know what that WARP thing is, but it is so off it seems useless.

 

[magnifier661]

Any site that doesn't have Aldridge as a top 3 PF in the game is seriously flawed. /thread

 

[blue9]

1. LeBron James, Miami Heat
2. Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
3. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
4. Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
5. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
6. Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Pelicans
7. Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets
8. Josh Smith, Detroit Pistons
9. Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder
10. Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks

Thanks! That's a shit list, though. Three of those guys are SFs (yes, I consider Faried to be a SF). Anthony Davis needs to play before he ranks #3. And Ryan Anderson is an average player - a great shooter for his position, but an average player.

 

[Natebishop3]

Trade him now.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I like how the Pelicans have two guys in the top6.

Yeah, two of the "best" power forwards in the game and they only won 27 games. You think with such an awesome front court they would have been going against Miami in the finals. And on what planet is Ryan Anderson (16.2ppg, 6.4rpg, 0.4bpg, .423 FG%) a better power forward than LaMarcus Aldridge (21.1ppg, 9.1rpg, 1.2bpg, .484 FG%)? Even if you totally ignore defense and the "eye test" and just look at their stats, that makes ZERO sense.

And Kevin Love barely played last year, and when he did, he sucked.

I also think that to be considered a power forward, you also have to guard the other team's power forward on the other end. Basketball is played at both ends of the court and rankings like this tend to only look at offense. When has LeBron or Carmelo ever guarded LaMarcus or Duncan?

Stupid list.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

The entire stinking, fucking bench is all negative numbers. Big negatives.

Well, for perspective, check out Miami.

 

[Masbee]

Well, for perspective, check out Miami.

Two of them - Battier and Ray Allen are average NBA players. That is just fine for a bench player.

Look again at our list.

Toss out Maynor - he came too late in the season to matter.
Toss out Nolan Smith - he played too few minutes.
Then you get to our "real" bench from last season:

Pavlovic was the "best" at -5.6, which is bad, and it only gets worse from there.

Miami has 2 bench players better than that, and 2 other bench players MUCH better than that.

 

[BBert]

I'm glad this WARP ranking came out and disrespected LaMarcus. The last time he felt disrespected, he played with a chip on his shoulder and we started calling him LaMonster. I hope he reads that drivel and it pisses him off.

 

[Rhal]

I'm glad this WARP ranking came out and disrespected LaMarcus. The last time he felt disrespected, he played with a chip on his shoulder and we started calling him LaMonster. I hope he reads that drivel and it pisses him off.

Great way to look at it. LA seems to become a monster when he gets slighted or pissed off. We need to send mags to every game with the intent to piss off LA before tipoff. Shouldn't be hard, all he would need to do is show him blue9 post about him.

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