ESPN Western Conference Preview..........

[KingSpeed]

OKC= way overrated

Phoenix= wayyyy underratee

People had the Suns missing the playoffs last year too and they reached the WCF. Yes, Amare is gone and they will drop off but Turkoglu and Childress are good fits and they will make the playoffs, IMHO.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

That said, a coin still has a 50% chance of landing heads no matter how much you wish it to be tails or how many times it has been heads previously. But no amount of history changes that facts that as we sit there is only a 13% chance that Oden gets injured and a 13% chance that Roy gets injured, and likewise a 13% chance Durant gets injured or Kobe gets injured. It will happen to someone, but unfortunately we don't get to control that and likewise we don't get to use any history when that 13% landed on us to attempt to adjust the facts that it will still only be 13% for all teams equally in the future and thus projections cannot logically be altered accordingly. But that still will never mesh with some minds, so I'll quit wasting your time and mine.

Are you seriously trying to posit that all NBA players have the exact same chance of being injured? That durability and "injury-prone-ness" (not a word, I know) are nothing more than the products of random chance? That--for instance--physical build, style of play, and prior injury history have no impact on Miller never missing a game and Roy missing several every year? Am I reading that right?

 

[hasoos]

OKC= way overrated

Phoenix= wayyyy underratee

People had the Suns missing the playoffs last year too and they reached the WCF. Yes, Amare is gone and they will drop off but Turkoglu and Childress are good fits and they will make the playoffs, IMHO.

It's kind of amazing how Steve Nash had made so many players and coaches look good aye?

 

[MickZagger]

OKC= way overrated

Phoenix= wayyyy underratee

People had the Suns missing the playoffs last year too and they reached the WCF. Yes, Amare is gone and they will drop off but Turkoglu and Childress are good fits and they will make the playoffs, IMHO.

...and they have absolutely no bigs. Lopez twin and Earl Clark?

Haha. Those guys are closer in talent to Pendo than they are Oden and Camby.

Whats Phoenix going to do when Nash doesn't have a good enough option to run the pick and roll with. I guess they hope Warrick can live up to Amare's

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

Are you seriously trying to posit that all NBA players have the exact same chance of being injured? That durability and "injury-prone-ness" (not a word, I know) are nothing more than the products of random chance? That--for instance--physical build, style of play, and prior injury history have no impact on Miller never missing a game and Roy missing several every year? Am I reading that right?

True, it is an exaggeration to the other side to put the statistical base to the point. But to some extent, most of the "physcial build", "age", "style of play" are variation of white noise that cancel out over the greater whole. Most teams have a center out there banging knees with other centers, most teams have a shooter out there not doing anything but jumping, most teams have some rookies and second year young guys and many teams have some 10 year plus vets. Point is everyone has a little bit of everything.

And yes, there are 3-4 exceptions in the league that have a pre-existing condition that will never go away (see Yao's foot). Or they've had some significant ligament or tendon issues which as we all know don't ever heal back to 100% and there are bound to be high injury rates for the rest of their playing lives (see Andrew Bynum or Dejuan Blair). And you could make the case that Roy has a slighly elevated disposition to some of these soft tissue injuries and that could raise our percent slightly over a team like OKC who has all young players, and not one with a single disposition to injuries. So I'll give you the slight variable that we could say for Roy maybe being a 20% chance he gets injured due to some lingering soft tissue items over a Durant being more like 10%. But guys like Oden and Horford and Noah are all bangers that will have some random broken bones and patellas that will heal back to 100% every few years and Oden just had his coin land tails twice, so it certainly doesn't make sesne to separate him out from every other center that has the same chance of having one of those bone type of injuries.

 

[Idog1976]

Not just him. All the "elite" players get calls. I for one, am looking forward to the possible influx of new blood into NBA reffing by foreign refs I read about this year. But then again, it might be all for naught.

I hear Stern hand picked them from Sicily so I think we're set!

 

[Idog1976]

Are you seriously trying to posit that all NBA players have the exact same chance of being injured? That durability and "injury-prone-ness" (not a word, I know) are nothing more than the products of random chance? That--for instance--physical build, style of play, and prior injury history have no impact on Miller never missing a game and Roy missing several every year? Am I reading that right?

Even though I agreed with ESPN's overarching point about injuries his strange "plucked from air" 13% chance seemed bizarre to me as well. I loved the rest of what he brought to the table...next time leave the Mac and Velveta at home.

 

[oldmangrouch]

If we're talking about the quality of the team, which we were, it's far more correct to say that Portland was tied for second in the West that year, not that they were fourth. Tie-breakers hardly point to meaningful differences in quality. Regular season record is perfectly relevant as the largest sample size referendum on the team's quality for that season.

You're capable of providing logical dissent...why do you go out of your way to undermine that with semantic games aimed at underselling the team? Instead of always trying to be devil's advocate to counter what you probably view as homerism, why not aim for being as objective as possible? That includes seeing the positives of the situation. Your attitude is identical to what it was during the John Nash years, despite radically different results. Doesn't that give you pause. if you're trying to argue in good faith?

I'm sorry you don't like the way I phrased it, but I stand by my point. The WC play-off race of recent years has been a dogfight. Outside of the Lakers being the #1 seed, you might as well throw the other 7 teams' names in a hat and pick them out at random. The race will likely go down to the closing weeks of the season, and health will be a major factor.

If both Roy and Oden stay healthy for 82 games, the Blazers could challenge for the #2 seed. If both miss a substantial number of games, they will have to battle for the #8th seed. If one stays healthy, they will likely finish in the middle. What about that opinion do you see as being in bad faith?

I will gladly admit I am very frustrated with the team. Prior to the Petrie era, the Blazer front office had a history of ignoring red flags about injuries. They would blindly go into the season hoping an injury prone player would somehow play a key role. Petrie changed that.

When Petrie opted to go with Duck over Steve Johnson, or Kersey over Kiki, many people ripped him a new one. A couple of years later, those guys were playing in the finals, while Johnson and Kiki were forced into early retirement. Sadly, I think the team has forgotten that lesson, and is returning to the their old habits.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I can't wait to see OKC fall flat on its face.
While they were extremely fortunate last season health wise and over-achieved, they still finished below us. Not sure how a healthy Blazers team this year will finish with a lower win total than last year.
Oh, and our bigs destroy theirs.
They have: Green (seriously overrated), Aldrich, Ibaka, and Kristic.
We have: Aldridge, Oden, Camby, and Przybilla.

They don't have Krstic any more - he went back to Europe.

 

[THE HCP]

And that is the difference between elite scorers and non elite scorers in the league. The reason some players keep their averages so high is even when having a bad shooting night they will get to the line in abundance. In the games where they are scoring in abundance, the line gives them the added points to make it an elite scoring night.

That is why I love Bayless so much! Not calling him a great scorer, but he has the ability to put the defense on it's heals and get to the line!

 

[LittleAlex]

I think the Spurs could be a surprise this season if Splitter is as good as advertised.
He will extend the shelf life of Tim Duncan and make things easier on Parker.

OKC is over-rated primarily because they lack the size needed to be an elite team.
Just because they played well against a bored as fuck Lakers team doesn't mean they are ready to make a big leap.

I think Portland got under rated by ESPN this year but that's hardly a surprise.

 

[MickZagger]

I will gladly admit I am very frustrated with the team. Prior to the Petrie era, the Blazer front office had a history of ignoring red flags about injuries. They would blindly go into the season hoping an injury prone player would somehow play a key role. Petrie changed that.

When Petrie opted to go with Duck over Steve Johnson, or Kersey over Kiki, many people ripped him a new one. A couple of years later, those guys were playing in the finals, while Johnson and Kiki were forced into early retirement. Sadly, I think the team has forgotten that lesson, and is returning to the their old habits.

The FO from 20 years ago has nothing to do with now.

 

[oldmangrouch]

The FO from 20 years ago has nothing to do with now.

It does if they repeat the same mistakes.