Evan Turner? Meh

[Boob-No-More]

In his stint starting at SG, Crabbe has raised his PER to 10.3 (it was 9.9 just a few days ago).

You got that backwards. Crabbe had "improved" his PER to above the 10.0 basketball equivalent of the Mendoza Line before he started in Lillard's absence. As a starter, it dipped back down to 9.9, and then after one decent game coming off the bench last night, it was back up to 10.3.

You seem enthralled by these minor oscillations in Crabbe's PER, but that's all they are, insignificant minor oscillations. He's been bouncing around on either side of the 10.0 barrier most of the season. Changes this small are insignificant. Aminu saw his PER drop by 0.3 while he was out injured. Since PER is based on league average performance, which is recalculated nightly, a player can see his PER increase/decrease by a couple tenths of a point without even playing, depending on what the rest of the league does that day.

So, 10.3 vs. 9.9 is meaningless. Unless Crabbe suddenly rockets up to the PER = 12 range, this is who he is - for now. And, even at PER = 12, he's grotesquely under-performing his contract.

Turner is the one who has actually made significant improvement in his production. On 11/21 he had a very Crabbe-like PER = 9.5. Five games later on 12/1, his PER had jumped up to 11.8. A game later, it was over 12, where it has remained ever since. By mid-December, Turner's production was inline with his career average. The Turner we've seen for the last month is pretty much who Evan Turner is.

Unfortunately, the same is true for Allen Crabbe.

BNM

 

[Denny Crane]

You got that backwards. Crabbe had "improved" his PER to above the 10.0 basketball equivalent of the Mendoza Line before he started in Lillard's absence. As a starter, it dipped back down to 9.9, and then after one decent game coming off the bench last night, it was back up to 10.3.

You seem enthralled by these minor oscillations in Crabbe's PER, but that's all they are, insignificant minor oscillations. He's been bouncing around on either side of the 10.0 barrier most of the season. Changes this small are insignificant. Aminu saw his PER drop by 0.3 while he was out injured. Since PER is based on league average performance, which is recalculated nightly, a player can see his PER increase/decrease by a couple tenths of a point without even playing, depending on what the rest of the league does that day.

So, 10.3 vs. 9.9 is meaningless. Unless Crabbe suddenly rockets up to the PER = 12 range, this is who he is - for now. And, even at PER = 12, he's grotesquely under-performing his contract.

Turner is the one who has actually made significant improvement in his production. On 11/21 he had a very Crabbe-like PER = 9.5. Five games later on 12/1, his PER had jumped up to 11.8. A game later, it was over 12, where it has remained ever since. By mid-December, Turner's production was inline with his career average. The Turner we've seen for the last month is pretty much who Evan Turner is.

Unfortunately, the same is true for Allen Crabbe.

BNM

Tell me. BNM, how do you really feel about Crabbe?

 

[BlazerWookee]

I agree.
However, it's not his fault Neil panicked and threw insane amounts of money at him.

Neil was the silent guy at the end of the auction who didn't win any of his bids during the whole thing so he raised his hand during the last boring auction yelling 16 MILLION DOLLARS! and everybody were looking at him like

"Panicked," lol...

 

[Minstrel]

Turner is an okay player. The main thing that separates okay players from good/great players is how often they can make an impact. All okay/solid players can be good/great in a game here and there. Because they can't do it constantly, they aren't actually good/great players. So, it shouldn't be surprising when he has a good game, nor should it be surprising when he's invisible for a stretch of games. That's life in the NBA's middle class.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Tell me. BNM, how do you really feel about Crabbe?

I think I've made that clear multiple times, but for the record, he's grossly overpaid for what he brings to the table. He's a one-dimensional player, who can't create his own shot, or create for others. He is a very good 3-point shooter, in catch and shoot situations.

Baseball has it's Mendoza line:

"The Mendoza Line is an expression in baseball in the United States, deriving from the name of shortstopMario Mendoza, whose poor batting average is taken to define the threshold of incompetent hitting. The cutoff point is most often said to be .200... The term is used in other contexts when one is so incompetent in one key skill that other skills cannot compensate for that deficiency.

The "Mendoza Line" was created as a clubhouse joke among baseball players in 1979, when from early May onwards, Mendoza's average was always within a few points of .200 either way, finishing out the season at .198 for the year (and .201 for his career to that point). "

The way Crabbe continues to oscillate around PER = 10.0, the NBA may soon have it's own version of the Mendoza Line - the Crabbe Criterion to describe a player who's overall production is well below average, but propped up by a singular skill that earns them a ridiculous payday.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Tell me. BNM, how do you really feel about Crabbe?

Tell me Denny Crane, why do you make a post about it every time Allen Crabbe's PER rises above 10.0, even if it's only for a single game.

You've done that several times, as if having a PER = 10.3 is a good thing.

BNM

 

[Denny Crane]

Tell me Denny Crane, why do you make a post about it every time Allen Crabbe's PER rises above 10.0, even if it's only for a single game.

You've done that several times, as if having a PER = 10.3 is a good thing.

BNM

Because his PER is clearly not a good enough figure to judge him by. One game and a .4 difference is a pretty big swing. It's not like he's going to get it to over 13 or 15 in a small number of games.

And my question was rhetorical.

 

[illmatic99]

At least neither AC or ET have been as bad as Bazemore. He too is on a similar contract.

 

[Minstrel]

At least neither AC or ET have been as bad as Bazemore. He too is on a similar contract.

Yeah, Atlanta made the same mistake with Bazemore--treating a guy who's an asset when super cheap as though he's an asset in any context. Once he got a big deal, he ceased being an asset. Similar to Crabbe and Turner.

 

[Denny Crane]

An interesting factoid.

Mario Mendoza played 9 seasons.

 

[illmatic99]

Yeah, Atlanta made the same mistake with Bazemore--treating a guy who's an asset when super cheap as though he's an asset in any context. Once he got a big deal, he ceased being an asset. Similar to Crabbe and Turner.

It was the market rate for wing guys who can potentially be (or for some reason have been thought of) as two way players this past summer. It's why guys like KCP, Rodney Hood, Otto Porter,etc will all get max contracts soon enough. We were just a year early.

Not to mention Barnes/Batum/Parsons all got close to $100 mil deals for being marginally better than our guys on the tier below.

The dearth of good wings is real. Gotta pay to play.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

An interesting factoid.

Mario Mendoza played 9 seasons.

 

[Minstrel]

Yeah, Mendoza played in the pre-Ripken era when teams didn't expect their middle infielders to hit, as long as they fielded their position well. While Cal Ripken Jr. was pretty singular, the '80s and '90s were when teams began to expect more hitting ability from all positions (except catcher, still). Today, it's unlikely Mendoza would stick anywhere near that long.

 

[Minstrel]

It was the market rate for wing guys who can potentially be (or for some reason have been thought of) as two way players this past summer. It's why guys like KCP, Rodney Hood, Otto Porter,etc will all get max contracts soon enough. We were just a year early.

Teams behaving irrationally doesn't mean that Portland, or any team, should do the same. I realize that good two-way wings are currently in gigantic demand, but paying out massive deals because you think/hope a guy might end up being one is silly. Atlanta got good value out of Bazemore on a bargain deal--the correct route would have been to wish him well on a big deal from another team and look for another undervalued player. Crabbe has never shown a talent outside of spot-up shooting. Spot-up shooting is valuable, but not when it comes with no other value. Paying him on spec, assuming more talents would emerge, is incredibly inefficient, in my opinion.

 

[illmatic99]

Teams behaving irrationally doesn't mean that Portland, or any team, should do the same. I realize that good two-way wings are currently in gigantic demand, but paying out massive deals because you think/hope a guy might end up being one is silly. Atlanta got good value out of Bazemore on a bargain deal--the correct route would have been to wish him well on a big deal from another team and look for another undervalued player. Crabbe has never shown a talent outside of spot-up shooting. Spot-up shooting is valuable, but not when it comes with no other value. Paying him on spec, assuming more talents would emerge, is incredibly inefficient, in my opinion.

I'm not saying I agree with what we did, but more so coming to the realization that 15-20 mil/ yr is now the expected salary for an average wing player. It's obviously inefficient.

It's not easy to find a guy like Jonathan Simmons (who the Spurs picked out of the middle of nowhere) to produce for peanuts from the wing spot. Hell, it could also be argued that we did get Moe/Aminu on an incredibly cheap deals, and they at least somewhat compensate for the AC/ET deals.

Another point to consider when you figure out how many of the inefficient deals will become reality in the coming years: AC/ET will become more and more tradeable as their contracts continue.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Because his PER is clearly not a good enough figure to judge him by. One game and a .4 difference is a pretty big swing. It's not like he's going to get it to over 13 or 15 in a small number of games.

So, what figure would you judge him by? Name one figure, other than 3FG%, when Allen Crabbe even approaches average. I showed in the Trade C.J. thread that our team point differential tales a significant hit when Crabbe is on the floor, and I also showed that he gets outscored by the opponent he's guarding. Judging his overall performance based on PER is probably doing him a favor as it's propped up by the one, and only, thing he does well - 3-point shooting.

A 0.4 swing in PER based on one game is not a pretty big swing. It happens for multiple players every single day.

Crabbe has been oscillating between 9.9 and 10.4 for over a month. Turner jumped from 9.5 to 11.8 in just 5 games. Now that's a significant jump, and it has also proven sustainable as Turner is now at 12.3.

Yeah, expecting Crabbe to jump to 15 is pure fantasy, even 13 is a stretch as his career best is 12.2. Unless he improves other aspects of his game, his limited skill set will prevent him from ever being a PER = 15.0 player.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

An interesting factoid.

Mario Mendoza played 9 seasons.

So? Every sport has their specialists - guys who get by on a singular skill (in Mendoza's case, his glove), but suck at the rest of the game.

Did Mendoza ever get the equivalent of an $84 million payday? Of course not. He was a bench player that stuck around for 9 seasons, but had fewer than 100 at bats in five of those nine seasons. His weak bat kept him from ever being anything more than a late inning defensive specialist.

BNM

 

[illmatic99]

Did Mendoza ever get the equivalent of an $84 million payday?
BNM

Not to nitpick, but how did 74 suddenly become 84 mil?

 

[Boob-No-More]

Not to nitpick, but how did 74 suddenly become 84 mil?

It didn't. Typo.

Crabbe's contract is actually $75 million over 4 years, not counting the 15% trade kicker.

Team 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Portland Trail Blazers $18,500,000 $18,500,000 $19,332,500 $18,500,000

• 15% trade kicker.
• 2019-20 is player option.
• Trail Blazers matched 4-yr/$75M offer sheet from Nets on Sunday, July 10, 2016.

BNM

 

[illmatic99]

Sorry to belabor this point, but since we still are in a sort of sticker shock with these contracts, it's worth visiting some of these other numbers for wing players given out last year and the year before.

These are salaries for this season:

Wade -- 23.2 mil
Beal -- 22.1 mil
Parsons -- 22.1 mil
Barnes -- 22.1 mil
Batum -- 20.9 mil
Crabbe -- 18.5 mil
Deng -- 18 mil
Matthews -- 17.1 mil
Fournier -- 17.1 mil
Turner -- 16.3 mil
Bazemore -- 15.7 mil
Middleton -- 15.2 mil
Jeff Green -- 15 mil
Carroll -- 14.2 mil
Ginobili-- 14 mil
Crawford -- 13.2 mil
JR Smith -- 12. 8 mil
Afflalo -- 12.5 mil
Gordon -- 12.4 mil
Lee -- 11.2 mil
Solomon Hill -- 11.2 mil
Austin Rivers -- 11 mil

Joining this list (probably near the top) in the next year will be: KCP, Redick, Porter, Roberson, etc. And in 2018, you will have Gay, Gallinari, Ariza, Bradley, Lavine, Will Barton, Andrew Wiggins, etc all potentially making close to or above 20 mil.

Come this summer and next, people WILL stop ridiculing these deals.

 

[Denny Crane]

I think it means he was good enough to stick with a MLB team for 9 seasons.

He even played full time in some of those.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I think it means he was good enough to stick with a MLB team for 9 seasons.

He even played full time in some of those.

Right. I suppose it all depends on how you define full time. In his illustrious 9-year career, Mario Mendoza never had enough plate appearances (502) to qualify for a batting title. Not that it matters, but tat's what MLB considers a full time player. The most plate appearances Mendoza ever had was 401 in 1979. That year he hit .198 for a last place team.

If that's your definition of "good", it explains a lot.

BNM

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I think it means he was good enough to stick with a MLB team for 9 seasons.

He even played full time in some of those.

I was referring to your questionable use of the word "interesting" in regard to the factoid itself.

 

[Denny Crane]

Right. I suppose it all depends on how you define full time. In his illustrious 9-year career, Mario Mendoza never had enough plate appearances (502) to qualify for a batting title. Not that it matters, but tat's what MLB considers a full time player. The most plate appearances Mendoza ever had was 401 in 1979. That year he hit .198 for a last place team.

If that's your definition of "good", it explains a lot.

BNM

Example:
148 games played in a season. 2.5 AB/game.

Mendoza's glove is my definition of good.
Crabbe's .420 3pt shooting is my definition of good.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Example:
148 games played in a season. 2.5 AB/game.

That's still not a full time player. He split time with Larry Milbourne that year.

Mendoza's glove is my definition of good.
Crabbe's .420 3pt shooting is my definition of good.

Now you're just making my point for me. That Crabbe, like Mendoza is a 1-trick pony that has one skill that keeps him around in spite of his other deficiencies.

Again, that 1979 season you keep referring to, Mendoza batted .198 for a last place team. I don't want the NBA equivalent of Mario Mendoza starting for my team, because if he is, it means my team isn't very good.

BNM

 

[Minstrel]

Sorry to belabor this point, but since we still are in a sort of sticker shock with these contracts, it's worth visiting some of these other numbers for wing players given out last year and the year before.

These are salaries for this season:

Wade -- 23.2 mil
Beal -- 22.1 mil
Parsons -- 22.1 mil
Barnes -- 22.1 mil
Batum -- 20.9 mil
Crabbe -- 18.5 mil
Deng -- 18 mil
Matthews -- 17.1 mil
Fournier -- 17.1 mil
Turner -- 16.3 mil
Bazemore -- 15.7 mil
Middleton -- 15.2 mil
Jeff Green -- 15 mil
Carroll -- 14.2 mil
Ginobili-- 14 mil
Crawford -- 13.2 mil
JR Smith -- 12. 8 mil
Afflalo -- 12.5 mil
Gordon -- 12.4 mil
Lee -- 11.2 mil
Solomon Hill -- 11.2 mil
Austin Rivers -- 11 mil

Joining this list (probably near the top) in the next year will be: KCP, Redick, Porter, Roberson, etc. And in 2018, you will have Gay, Gallinari, Ariza, Bradley, Lavine, Will Barton, Andrew Wiggins, etc all potentially making close to or above 20 mil.

Come this summer and next, people WILL stop ridiculing these deals.

The problem is, you're impying that all these players are roughly the same. They're not...there's a wide spread in quality between a Batum or Redick vs. a Crabbe or Rivers. If Crabbe were near the bottom of the list, where Rivers is, that wouldn't be so bad. Instead, he's up near Batum and ahead of Fournier, players that are much better.

I think even with a bit of a bump up in the salary cap, Crabbe's deal is going to stand out as bad.

Middleton is a good example of a contract signed that may have seemed high at the time, but will age really well. Crabbe's isn't, in my opinion.

 

[Boob-No-More]

The problem is, you're impying that all these players are roughly the same. They're not...there's a wide spread in quality between a Batum or Redick vs. a Crabbe or Rivers. If Crabbe were near the bottom of the list, where Rivers is, that wouldn't be so bad. Instead, he's up near Batum and ahead of Fournier, players that are much better.

I think even with a bit of a bump up in the salary cap, Crabbe's deal is going to stand out as bad.

Middleton is a good example of a contract signed that may have seemed high at the time, but will age really well. Crabbe's isn't, in my opinion.

Agreed. While Crabbe's (and Turner's) contracts may moderate over time, the thing that stands out to me is that Crabbe and Turner are the only two players in the top 10 on that list that are not full time starters (when healthy). We have two grossly overpaid bench players - and our bench sucks.

So yeah, the contracts may look less bad overtime, but I don't think they will ever look good.

BNM

 

[Blazers Roy]

"Panicked," lol...

went by this:


I don't understand why some of you guys love to break my balls every time i make a small mistake in a language which isn't my native language.

I actually do want to get correction via PM because i want to get better at this language, but i hate these rude,condescending jabs in public.

 

[Denny Crane]

This was the first summer of the new TV contract money. Many stars orchestrated their free agency to correspond with it. And many teams were flush with cap space to bid up the contracts of the non stars. Wait until this next summer when there will be another class of non stars getting big deals. Our salary structure will be the norm.

 

[Orion Bailey]

went by this:
View attachment 11730

I don't understand why some of you guys love to break my balls every time i make a small mistake in a language which isn't my native language.

I actually do want to get correction via PM because i want to get better at this language, but i hate these rude,condescending jabs in public.

Unless you edited, you spelled correctly. I think he was laughing at no panicking. And agreeing with you it was a panic or laughing at you for thinking no was panicking. I don't think it had anything to do with your literacy.