Fantasy Outlook: Will Nurkic Thrive?! (1 Viewer)

[Haakzilla]

...glad I was able to scoop him up off the waiver wire in at least one of my leagues -- Nurkic makes the second half exciting to watch, hope they let the beast loose!

Fantasy hoops: Will Nurkic thrive with Trail Blazers?

Joe Kaiser: I've been a big fan of Nurkic since he entered the league and started showing his upside as a legitimate fantasy star early in his career. Things didn't work out in Denver, but I think he'll be a better fit in Portland, where they need his size and will depend on him to play 25-plus minutes a night. His Blazers debut was impressive, but what especially stood out was that it came in only 21 minutes off the bench.

Once the 22-year-old gets accustomed to Portland's offense, I expect him to be a starter with the upside to average a double-double and 1-2 blocks per game. Next season, I see his fantasy value being in the same range as fellow young centers Clint Capela and Steven Adams.

Bradford Doolittle: Unless the Blazers trade for Nikola Jokic, Nurkic should be a fairly good bet. He's been a consistent producer through his career when healthy, and his defensive RPM (plus-1.96) is better than either Jokic or Mason Plumlee. That suggests the defense-starved Blazers will leave him on the floor for at least the 28 minutes per game that Plumlee was getting. It is a bit of a different look for the Blazers and we'll have to see how Nurkic works with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.

Neither Nurkic nor Plumlee is anything like a floor-spacer. Plumlee was at his best on the move -- cuts, rolls, transition -- while Nurkic is more of a plodder and back-to-the-basket threat. He's not nearly the playmaker Plumlee was, so if he upgrades Portland in the middle, it may be a trade-off of offense for defense. Given the Blazers' bedrock offensive foundation of Lillard and McCollum, I'd be surprised if Nurkic maintains his career 22.7 percent usage rate. I think he'll end up somewhere around 12 points per game, nine boards, and about 1.8 blocks. Hopefully, the lowered usage will keep his field-goal percentage around 50, though his free throw shooting might torpedo everything.

Kyle Soppe: Yep, I'm on board here. Listen, he was a first-round pick in 2014 for a reason and the needs of his employer finally fit his skill set. With Nurkic playing limited minutes, the Nuggets were averaging the third most paint points per game in the NBA, so there really was no motivation to unleash Nurkic on any sort of consistent basis. The Blazers...not so much. They score the ninth fewest paint points despite scoring the ninth most points per game this season, so a player who has taken nearly 87 percent of his career shots from inside of eight feet has a real role that isn't going anywhere.

The primary concern for any player who is expected to see a significant minute bump is his ability to produce for an extended period of time: that's not a worry here. In 20 games this season in which Nurkic has played at least 20 minutes, he is averaging 12.7 points on 58.7 percent shooting and 8.3 rebounds. That stat line is essentially Gorgui Dieng (84.9 percent owned) or a more efficient version of Zach Randolph (74.9 percent owned) that is 13 years younger. If you need some interior production, this is as strong a free agent as you're going to find on your waiver wire.

READ FULL ARTICLE --> http://www.espn.com/fantasy/basketb...ntasy-basketball-jusuf-nurkic-thrive-portland

 

[-Ace-]

I don't know, but I hope our matchup lasts more than just this week so I can survive.

 

[MickZagger]

At 22, the dude is so polished. I hope we robbed the blind. Our Centers are cursed though. He probably just broke his femur standing in line at Old Country Buffet as were speaking.

 

[ripcityboy]

Look at his competition? How can he NOT THRIVE?!

 

[Haakzilla]

I don't know, but I hope our matchup lasts more than just this week so I can survive.

...yeah, I am pretty sure it goes all the way thru next week so you have plenty of time to try and crawl out of that 10-1 hole you're in!

 

[-Ace-]

It's getting down to crunch time! Just a few weeks left and we're all bunched up in the top few spots. Should be an exciting "playoff" battle.

 

[Shaboid]

It's getting down to crunch time! Just a few weeks left and we're all bunched up in the top few spots. Should be an exciting "playoff" battle.

How do the playoffs work for this league? I wasn't able to find it.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

How do the playoffs work for this league? I wasn't able to find it.

Playoffs: Week 21, 22 and 23 (6 teams) Note: Week 23 runs 10 days from Apr 3 to Apr 12
Playoff Reseeding: No

 

[Haakzilla]

...if Stotts gives him the greenlight from the 3pt line, then he could very easily be a top 50 player the rest of the season!

Direct from the Bosnian Beast's own Facebook page (first practice from the All-star break):

 

[Boob-No-More]

...if Stotts gives him the greenlight from the 3pt line, then he could very easily be a top 50 player the rest of the season!

Direct from the Bosnian Beast's own Facebook page (first practice from the All-star break):

Yes, but only if he's guarded by a chair and shooting with a high school 3-point line.

BNM

 

[riverman]

Guy has a good looking shot..plenty of arc and good follow through

 

[rasheedfan2005]

Yes, but only if he's guarded by a chair and shooting with a high school 3-point line.

BNM

he cant be worse than hairyers

 

[Boob-No-More]

he cant be worse than hairyers

I'd much rather see him dominating that chair on the low block with a series of drop step and up and under moves and jump hooks with either hand. Leave the 3-point shooting to the guys who are paid to do it.

BNM

 

[rasheedfan2005]

I'd much rather see him dominating that chair on the low block with a series of drop step and up and under moves and jump hooks with either hand. Leave the 3-point shooting to the guys who are paid to do it.

BNM

nothing wrong with having options.

 

[Strenuus]

nothing wrong with having options.

Yeah, we have the 3 point options, we need the low post options.

Leave the guy there. Let him work.

 

[rasheedfan2005]

Yeah, we have the 3 point options, we need the low post options.

Leave the guy there. Let him work.

why cant he do both?

 

[Strenuus]

why cant he do both?

Because we have Stotts - who is single minded.

 

[rasheedfan2005]

Because we have Stotts - who is single minded.

it's a 48 minute game and if stotts offense is truley free then i dont see why he cant dominate the post and adjust if teams swarm him. pop out for a 3. just 1. hit it. now pop out and hit a cutting dame or CJ. your defender has to guard you. now they cant double you, so post again.

 

[Sinobas]

He's 22, so he's young enough to be a rookie. I do feel that he has more upside than Plumlee. Dare I say, I see some Marc Gasol in him.

 

[Strenuus]

it's a 48 minute game and if stotts offense is truley free then i dont see why he cant dominate the post and adjust if teams swarm him. pop out for a 3. just 1. hit it. now pop out and hit a cutting dame or CJ. your defender has to guard you. now they cant double you, so post again.

Nope. He should never shoot a 3.

 

[rasheedfan2005]

Nope. He should never shoot a 3.

and stotts is the 1 trick pony?

 

[Boob-No-More]

why cant he do both?

I could probably post 100 reasons why not. Here's a few:

I prioritize diversification of the team's offense over the diversification of Nurkic's offensive skills. We already have plenty of guys launching countless 3s. We have NO ONE ELSE who can dominate in the low post.

Pulling our 7' 280 lb. beast 24' from the basket completely negates his most important strength - his bigness. I don't want to see that 7' 280lb. body camped out at the 3-point line EVER. I want to see him down low, posting up, drawing fouls on opposing bigs and hitting the offensive glass. The only time he should ever be more that 15' from the basket on offense is when he's using his 280 lbs. of bulk to set a devastating screen - and then he should roll HARD to the basket EVERY time. We finally have a big player with a low post game, let's not piss it away.

Again, when he's shooting 3-pointers, he's completely out of position for getting offensive rebounds. He has a career ORB% of 12.2 - that's an elite offensive rebounder. With as many shots as this team misses, I want that camped under the basket getting us extra possessions, not 24' away toeing the 3-point line.

I'm fine with him working on the 15' - 17' midrange jump shot, which he already seems to have. That's enough to keep opposing defenses honest AND, when you're 15' from the basket, a pump fake and one dribble, or a spin move and your'e finishing at the rim, drawing fouls, etc. 24' from the rim, he's not going to be drawing any fouls, and it now takes 2 - 3 dribbles to be in position to finish at the rim. He may be light on his feet for a man his size, but that's PLENTY of time for opposing defenses to recover, cut him off and steal the ball.

Most of all, I want to see him work on perfecting the skills he has and the one key skill he lacks. He does have great low post moves, but his shooting percentages, even inside of 3' are not great. Time would be better spent working on finishing around the basket with both hands than hoisting up 3-pointers.

And, while he does have some good footwork and good low post moves, there is so much more he can add. Until he has a McHale like repertoire of low post moves, and can reliably execute those moves without turning the ball over (17.4% career TOV%) I don't want to see him shoot a single 3. That's his value add. I'd rather see him work on improving his low post moves and finishing ability than add something we already have covered and don't really need.

Finally, FT shooting. He's a career .586 FT shooter. That puts him squarely in Dwight Howard territory. Park his ass down on the low blocks and feed the beast and he will get fouled A LOT. Which would be a waste, if he can't make his FTs. I also don't want to see other teams resorting to Hack-a-Nurk - at which point, he goes from an asset to a liability. FT shooting is about learning the proper form and then shooting enough reps to develop muscle memory. Rather than spend time hoisting 50 3-pointers in practice, spend that same time shooting an extra 50 FTs. It will make you a better player and a better asset who can be left on the floor with the game on the line. Once you can reliably knock down 75% - 80% of your FTs in game situations, you can waste time dicking around at the 3-point line in practice, but not before.

BNM

 

[Strenuus]

and stotts is the 1 trick pony?

In the post and out to 15'.

2.

 

[Strenuus]

I could probably post 100 reasons why not. Here's a few:

I prioritize diversification of the team's offense over the diversification of Nurkic's offensive skills. We already have plenty of guys launching countless 3s. We have NO ONE ELSE who can dominate in the low post.

Pulling our 7' 280 lb. beast 24' from the basket completely negates his most important strength - his bigness. I don't want to see that 7' 280lb. body camped out at the 3-point line EVER. I want to see him down low, posting up, drawing fouls on opposing bigs and hitting the offensive glass. The only time he should ever be more that 15' from the basket on offense is when he's using his 280 lbs. of bulk to set a devastating screen - and then he should roll HARD to the basket EVERY time. We finally have a big player with a low post game, let's not piss it away.

Again, when he's shooting 3-pointers, he's completely out of position for getting offensive rebounds. He has a career ORB% of 12.2 - that's an elite offensive rebounder. With as many shots as this team misses, I want that camped under the basket getting us extra possessions, not 24' away toeing the 3-point line.

I'm fine with him working on the 15' - 17' midrange jump shot, which he already seems to have. That's enough to keep opposing defenses honest AND, when you're 15' from the basket, a pump fake and one dribble, or a spin move and your'e finishing at the rim, drawing fouls, etc. 24' from the rim, he's not going to be drawing any fouls, and it now takes 2 - 3 dribbles to be in position to finish at the rim. He may be light on his feet for a man his size, but that's PLENTY of time for opposing defenses to recover, cut him off and steal the ball.

Most of all, I want to see him work on perfecting the skills he has and the one key skill he lacks. He does have great low post moves, but his shooting percentages, even inside of 3' are not great. Time would be better spent working on finishing around the basket with both hands than hoisting up 3-pointers.

And, while he does have some good footwork and good low post moves, there is so much more he can add. Until he has a McHale like repertoire of low post moves, and can reliably execute those moves without turning the ball over (17.4% career TOV%) I don't want to see him shoot a single 3. That's his value add. I'd rather see him work on improving his low post moves and finishing ability than add something we already have covered and don't really need.

Finally, FT shooting. He's a career .586 FT shooter. That puts him squarely in Dwight Howard territory. Park his ass down on the low blocks and feed the beast and he will get fouled A LOT. Which would be a waste, if he can't make his FTs. I also don't want to see other teams resorting to Hack-a-Nurk - at which point, he goes from an asset to a liability. FT shooting is about learning the proper form and then shooting enough reps to develop muscle memory. Rather than spend time hoisting 50 3-pointers in practice, spend that same time shooting an extra 50 FTs. It will make you a better player and a better asset who can be left on the floor with the game on the line. Once you can reliably knock down 75% - 80% of your FTs in game situations, you can waste time dicking around at the 3-point line in practice, but not before.

BNM

THANK YOU.

 

[rasheedfan2005]

I could probably post 100 reasons why not. Here's a few:

I prioritize diversification of the team's offense over the diversification of Nurkic's offensive skills. We already have plenty of guys launching countless 3s. We have NO ONE ELSE who can dominate in the low post.

Pulling our 7' 280 lb. beast 24' from the basket completely negates his most important strength - his bigness. I don't want to see that 7' 280lb. body camped out at the 3-point line EVER. I want to see him down low, posting up, drawing fouls on opposing bigs and hitting the offensive glass. The only time he should ever be more that 15' from the basket on offense is when he's using his 280 lbs. of bulk to set a devastating screen - and then he should roll HARD to the basket EVERY time. We finally have a big player with a low post game, let's not piss it away.

Again, when he's shooting 3-pointers, he's completely out of position for getting offensive rebounds. He has a career ORB% of 12.2 - that's an elite offensive rebounder. With as many shots as this team misses, I want that camped under the basket getting us extra possessions, not 24' away toeing the 3-point line.

I'm fine with him working on the 15' - 17' midrange jump shot, which he already seems to have. That's enough to keep opposing defenses honest AND, when you're 15' from the basket, a pump fake and one dribble, or a spin move and your'e finishing at the rim, drawing fouls, etc. 24' from the rim, he's not going to be drawing any fouls, and it now takes 2 - 3 dribbles to be in position to finish at the rim. He may be light on his feet for a man his size, but that's PLENTY of time for opposing defenses to recover, cut him off and steal the ball.

Most of all, I want to see him work on perfecting the skills he has and the one key skill he lacks. He does have great low post moves, but his shooting percentages, even inside of 3' are not great. Time would be better spent working on finishing around the basket with both hands than hoisting up 3-pointers.

And, while he does have some good footwork and good low post moves, there is so much more he can add. Until he has a McHale like repertoire of low post moves, and can reliably execute those moves without turning the ball over (17.4% career TOV%) I don't want to see him shoot a single 3. That's his value add. I'd rather see him work on improving his low post moves and finishing ability than add something we already have covered and don't really need.

Finally, FT shooting. He's a career .586 FT shooter. That puts him squarely in Dwight Howard territory. Park his ass down on the low blocks and feed the beast and he will get fouled A LOT. Which would be a waste, if he can't make his FTs. I also don't want to see other teams resorting to Hack-a-Nurk - at which point, he goes from an asset to a liability. FT shooting is about learning the proper form and then shooting enough reps to develop muscle memory. Rather than spend time hoisting 50 3-pointers in practice, spend that same time shooting an extra 50 FTs. It will make you a better player and a better asset who can be left on the floor with the game on the line. Once you can reliably knock down 75% - 80% of your FTs in game situations, you can waste time dicking around at the 3-point line in practice, but not before.

BNM

sabonis is a fine example of a guy who could spend 95% of the time down low and still drill an occasional jumper

 

[Boob-No-More]

sabonis is a fine example of a guy who could spend 95% of the time down low and still drill an occasional jumper

Completely different situation. Sabonis was in his 30s by the time he played here, not a 22-year old still learning the game.

But the biggest difference were his teammates. Sabonis played with multiple low post threats while he was here. There was Sheed and BGrant, Jermaine (a little) and eventually Zach. He also had Dale Davis, Shawn Kemp, and Bonzie, who had a great post up game for a guard. So, it made sense for Sabas to play in the high post and feed these guys down low.

Nurkic is joining a team with ZERO other low post threats. He is our low post threat. Pulling him away from the basket makes zero sense. Unlike Sabonis, he should not be feeding the low post, he should be the one down there receiving those passes.

BNM

 

[Strenuus]

Completely different situation. Sabonis was in his 30s by the time he played here, not a 22-year old still learning the game.

But the biggest difference were his teammates. Sabonis played with multiple low post threats while he was here. There was Sheed and BGrant, Jermaine (a little) and eventually Zach. He also had Dale Davis, Shawn Kemp, and Bonzie, who had a great post up game for a guard. So, it made sense for Sabas to play in the high post and feed these guys down low.

Nurkic is joining a team with ZERO other low post threats. He is our low post threat. Pulling him away from the basket makes zero sense. Unlike Sabonis, he should not be feeding the low post, he should be the one down there receiving those passes.

BNM

It's called common sense. And I wonder sometimes if Stotts has it. I'm nervous he's going to do something stupid like have him shoot 3's.

 

[riverman]

I could probably post 100 reasons why not. Here's a few:

I prioritize diversification of the team's offense over the diversification of Nurkic's offensive skills. We already have plenty of guys launching countless 3s. We have NO ONE ELSE who can dominate in the low post.

Pulling our 7' 280 lb. beast 24' from the basket completely negates his most important strength - his bigness. I don't want to see that 7' 280lb. body camped out at the 3-point line EVER. I want to see him down low, posting up, drawing fouls on opposing bigs and hitting the offensive glass. The only time he should ever be more that 15' from the basket on offense is when he's using his 280 lbs. of bulk to set a devastating screen - and then he should roll HARD to the basket EVERY time. We finally have a big player with a low post game, let's not piss it away.

Again, when he's shooting 3-pointers, he's completely out of position for getting offensive rebounds. He has a career ORB% of 12.2 - that's an elite offensive rebounder. With as many shots as this team misses, I want that camped under the basket getting us extra possessions, not 24' away toeing the 3-point line.

I'm fine with him working on the 15' - 17' midrange jump shot, which he already seems to have. That's enough to keep opposing defenses honest AND, when you're 15' from the basket, a pump fake and one dribble, or a spin move and your'e finishing at the rim, drawing fouls, etc. 24' from the rim, he's not going to be drawing any fouls, and it now takes 2 - 3 dribbles to be in position to finish at the rim. He may be light on his feet for a man his size, but that's PLENTY of time for opposing defenses to recover, cut him off and steal the ball.

Most of all, I want to see him work on perfecting the skills he has and the one key skill he lacks. He does have great low post moves, but his shooting percentages, even inside of 3' are not great. Time would be better spent working on finishing around the basket with both hands than hoisting up 3-pointers.

And, while he does have some good footwork and good low post moves, there is so much more he can add. Until he has a McHale like repertoire of low post moves, and can reliably execute those moves without turning the ball over (17.4% career TOV%) I don't want to see him shoot a single 3. That's his value add. I'd rather see him work on improving his low post moves and finishing ability than add something we already have covered and don't really need.

Finally, FT shooting. He's a career .586 FT shooter. That puts him squarely in Dwight Howard territory. Park his ass down on the low blocks and feed the beast and he will get fouled A LOT. Which would be a waste, if he can't make his FTs. I also don't want to see other teams resorting to Hack-a-Nurk - at which point, he goes from an asset to a liability. FT shooting is about learning the proper form and then shooting enough reps to develop muscle memory. Rather than spend time hoisting 50 3-pointers in practice, spend that same time shooting an extra 50 FTs. It will make you a better player and a better asset who can be left on the floor with the game on the line. Once you can reliably knock down 75% - 80% of your FTs in game situations, you can waste time dicking around at the 3-point line in practice, but not before.

BNM

Being confident shooting from deep doesn't keep Marc Gasol from playing in the post...if it's a weakness in his skill set, adding that to his game doesn't mean he's going to camp out at the 3 pt line....I hope if he's got to shoot a 3 with the shot clock running down that he drains it....don't have a problem with any big guy being a capable three pt shooter....not the Gasols, Aldridge, Boogie, Davis, any of them....what I hope he really dials in his his free throw shooting....I don't think basketball skills need to be chronologically adapted at all.....work on your weakness...add to your game every year...sounds like a way for a 22 year old to become a great player....I don't see making a 3 pt shot in a game as dicking around....especially if you make a ton of chip shots and rebound well. I think it's wrong to project Meyers Leonard's tendencies on Nurkic

 

[riverman]

It's called common sense. And I wonder sometimes if Stotts has it. I'm nervous he's going to do something stupid like have him shoot 3's.

We need shooting contrary to popular belief around here....I'm thrilled if he turns out to be a 20 10 guy and I don't care how he gets em.....people don't bitch about Boogie shooting with range

 

[Strenuus]

We need shooting contrary to popular belief around here....I'm thrilled if he turns out to be a 20 10 guy and I don't care how he gets em.....people don't bitch about Boogie shooting with range

Low post or we're wasting what he would do best for us. Plain and simple.