Finding Drexler

[Denny Crane]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ets-new-orleans-pelicans-draft-pick/11388103/

According to the person, this deal won't be formalized until July because of league rules that wouldn't allow it to take place any earlier. For starters, the Pelicans already owe their 2014 first-round draft pick to the Philadelphia 76ers and — per what's known as the Stepien rule — aren't allowed to owe a first-rounder in consecutive seasons. Yet because that 2014 obligation will be considered fulfilled by the time the draft starts on Thursday night, they would then be free to trade their 2015 pick from that point on.

 

[Denny Crane]

The Lakers had no 1st round picks in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Los_Angeles_Lakers_first_and_second_round_draft_picks

They do note in 2009 that they picked in the 1st round and traded the player to the Knicks. But not for the other years.

Same here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/draft.html

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Denny, a team can have no first round picks for multiple years, but never in the future. The past does not matter when the year turns over after the draft. So yes, a team can have no first rounders for four years if they trade them correctly through the loopholes of the stepein rule.

So again. The blazers, owing a 2016 pick, can't trade the pick until they know they have it due to protections, and until the picks reset to 2017.

 

[Denny Crane]

Denny, a team can have no first round picks for multiple years, but never in the future. The past does not matter when the year turns over after the draft. So yes, a team can have no first rounders for four years if they trade them correctly through the loopholes of the stepein rule.

So again. The blazers, owing a 2016 pick, can't trade the pick until they know they have it due to protections, and until the picks reset to 2017.

The Lakers traded 2 picks (even years) for Gasol, and another 2 picks similarly for Nash. They did not draft for someone and trade the player drafted in the odd years.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

The Lakers traded 2 picks (even years) for Gasol, and another 2 picks similarly for Nash. They did not draft for someone and trade the player drafted in the odd years.

Id rather throw my head against a wall than continue this.....

Gasol was traded for 2008 and 2010 first rounders.

Steve Nash was traded for July 2012, when those picks no longer mattered because it was in the past. So of course they could have dealt 2013 and 2015 picks.

 

[Denny Crane]

Id rather throw my head against a wall than continue this.....

Gasol was traded for 2008 and 2010 first rounders.

Steve Nash was traded for July 2012, when those picks no longer mattered because it was in the past. So of course they could have dealt 2013 and 2015 picks.

Edit, sorry. See below.

Nash was traded for a 2013 and 2015 pick. The Lakers had no 2011 or 2012 or 2013 pick. Three years straight. Nobody drafted and traded to make up for it.

They traded their 2012 pick plus Luke Walton for Ramon Sessions, Jason Kopono and $1M in cash. How was that possible? They traded away two 1sts in a row - 2012 (for Kopono, et al) and 2013 for Nash.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

......because they dealt for Steve Nash in July 2012. After the 2012 draft had occurred. The stepien rule is for future picks, not previous picks.

A team can trade their first round pick every year if they please, as long as the pick year has reset so they aren't missing any two future years of picks.

 

[Denny Crane]

NVM

I see they acquired Nash after the 2012 draft.

I don't see the fuss, either way. Picking for someone else is no big deal.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Interesting topic on Los Angeles sports talk radio yesterday. The host quoted an ESPN analytical probability report where Russell came out with the best odds in this past draft of becoming a superstar. His odds were 15%
( Towns was 2nd at 14%) That means that there is a 85% chance that no one from a decent draft will be the next Drexler.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Interesting topic on Los Angeles sports talk radio yesterday. The host quoted an ESPN analytical probability report where Russell came out with the best odds in this past draft of becoming a superstar. His odds were 15%
( Towns was 2nd at 14%) That means that there is a 85% chance that no one from a decent draft will be the next Drexler.

Likely referring to this pre-draft projection from Nate Silver's website. It also gives Justise Winslow at 8.4% chance of being a star, Devin Boooker a 7.3%, and Stanley Johnson 6.8%. Combine them all and maybe we're looking at about a 38% chance of a star wing from this draft.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Interesting topic on Los Angeles sports talk radio yesterday. The host quoted an ESPN analytical probability report where Russell came out with the best odds in this past draft of becoming a superstar. His odds were 15%
( Towns was 2nd at 14%) That means that there is a 85% chance that no one from a decent draft will be the next Drexler.

And for a team like the Blazers the odds of getting "The Next Drexler ®" via free agency is somewhere just north of 0%, and by trade, probably hovers somewhere between .001% and 5% (being generous here).

 

[BlazerWookee]

And for a team like the Blazers the odds of getting "The Next Drexler ®" via free agency is somewhere just north of 0%, and by trade, probably hovers somewhere between .001% and 5% (being generous here).

How many "The Next Drexlers®" are there in the NBA right now?

 

[Pinwheel1]

And for a team like the Blazers the odds of getting "The Next Drexler ®" via free agency is somewhere just north of 0%, and by trade, probably hovers somewhere between .001% and 5% (being generous here).

I agree. It is all a huge gamble. Forget about just getting a super star, the odds are tough just getting a perennial
allstar. Which is why if you have one on your team, you try every possible way to keep him. Even to the bitter end.

 

[e_blazer]

Just for the sake of clarification, my use of Drexler in the thread title was more for fun than a statement that the guy we're looking for has to have the talent level of one of the top 50 players to ever Plat the game. IMO, we need a 2G or SF with a talent level roughly on a par with what Dame has at the PG spot.

 

[magnifier661]

And for a team like the Blazers the odds of getting "The Next Drexler ®" via free agency is somewhere just north of 0%, and by trade, probably hovers somewhere between .001% and 5% (being generous here).

I think we got Smith and Pippen from trades. So it's not entirely possible. Also, CP3 was extremely disgruntled in NOLA and our same GM was able to trade for him.

Obtaining solid youth on great contracts puts our team in perfect position to swoop in on something like that.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Just for the sake of clarification, my use of Drexler in the thread title was more for fun than a statement that the guy we're looking for has to have the talent level of one of the top 50 players to ever Plat the game. IMO, we need a 2G or SF with a talent level roughly on a particular with what Dame has at the PG spot.

Well that's a big fucking difference

 

[e_blazer]

Well that's a big fucking difference

I don't know about a difference in fucking, but it's a pretty big basketball difference.

 

[blue9]

I think we got Smith and Pippen from trades. So it's not entirely possible. Also, CP3 was extremely disgruntled in NOLA and our same GM was able to trade for him.

Obtaining solid youth on great contracts puts our team in perfect position to swoop in on something like that.

I can see Melo getting traded in the next year or two. I've never liked the guy, and have serious reservations about bringing him in, but as of now I think he's the most likely star-caliber player we could trade for.

 

[BlazerWookee]

I can see Melo getting traded in the next year or two. I've never liked the guy, and have serious reservations about bringing him in, but as of now I think he's the most likely star-caliber player we could trade for.

Uberblech.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Rumors of Toronto shopping derozan too. Rudy gay probably could be had for cheap again.

 

[BrianFromWA]

#1 picks from Magic (1979) to Anthony Davis (2012). You can throw Bennett in to make a stab, I guess, but I wanted to give time to get established in the League:
11 MVPs (of 33)
6 HoFers (10 if you count Shaq, Iverson, LeBron and Duncan)
28 All-Stars

So, you have about an 85% chance of getting an all-star, 1/3 chance of an MVP and a 30% chance of a HoFer with the first pick. And those numbers are including misfires like Oden over Durant and Bargnani over LMA.

With respect to the 538 gang (I haven't read their methodology), history speaks pretty loudly on this one.

But if you dig deeper to #2s, it gets interesting. Here's some stats from "bleacher report, lol..." because they did the work I was about to waste a bunch of time doing,...

the "achievements" of No. 2's in the modern era of the NBA aren't up to snuff. You can begin to understand why when cycling back through that long list of names.
Between injuries (Sam Bowie, Antonio McDyess, Jay Williams, Emeka Okafor), tragedy (Len Bias), poor fits (Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams), "less-than-elite" talent (Danny Ferry, Stromile Swift, Darko Milicic, Marvin Williams, Hasheem Thabeet) or some combination of the above (Shawn Bradley, Keith Van Horn), being a No. 2 pick has, by and large, been an experience fraught with misfortune.
To be sure, it makes sense that No. 2's would have some hard luck. The draft itself is a crapshoot, more or less, and becomes even more of one after each pick. If there's a can't-miss, surefire star-in-the-making sitting atop the big board, chances are the next guy up isn't going to be quite so flawless, regardless of what scouts and GMs say.
Not surprisingly, then, most of the best No. 2's of the last 30 years have been paired with bust-worthy No. 1's. That was the case in 1990 (Derrick Coleman at No. 1, Gary Payton at No. 2), 1994 (Glenn Robinson at No. 1, Jason Kidd at No. 2), 2001 (Kwame Brown at No. 1, Tyson Chandler at No. 2), 2006 (Andrea Bargnani at No. 1, LaMarcus Aldridge at No. 2) and 2007 (Greg Oden at No. 1, Kevin Durant at No. 2).

Which is to say, No. 2's don't usually "pan out" unless someone makes a mistake at No. 1.

So while this shows that tanking in general (especially if you're a dumb front office) isn't a stellar plan, if you do happen to get the first pick you have a pretty good shot at an absolute stud--or leaving one for the team picking #2.

 

[riverman]

All the new Drexlers on the Blazers roster have yet to emerge!

 

[blue9]

Rumors of Toronto shopping derozan too. Rudy gay probably could be had for cheap again.

Neither of those players are anywhere close to "Drexler-type" players. As much as I hate Melo, he is the closest to that level.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Mc.
Le.
More.

That is all.

 

[blue9]

... if you do happen to get the first pick you have a pretty good shot at an absolute stud--or leaving one for the team picking #2.

LOL!
Pretty interesting, though.

 

[BBert]

I can see Melo getting traded in the next year or two. I've never liked the guy, and have serious reservations about bringing him in, but as of now I think he's the most likely star-caliber player we could trade for.

Then let's target a less likely star-caliber player.

 

[BBert]

DeRozan or McLemore

 

[Pinwheel1]

#1 picks from Magic (1979) to Anthony Davis (2012). You can throw Bennett in to make a stab, I guess, but I wanted to give time to get established in the .

Ironically you started in 1979. From 70-78 we had 3 over all #1 picks.
LaRue Martin
Bill Walton
Mychal Thompson

Those three were pretty diverse. Bust, Superstar who got injured, and Solid player.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Neither of those players are anywhere close to "Drexler-type" players. As much as I hate Melo, he is the closest to that level.

True, but I think derozan is a high level wing that fits lillards arc and would be great at driving and getting to the rim for us.

If we could get a top player at c or sf In the draft this year, and put a package together for derozan I'd feel good about our team next offseason

 

[blue9]

True, but I think derozan is a high level wing that fits lillards arc and would be great at driving and getting to the rim for us.

If we could get a top player at c or sf In the draft this year, and put a package together for derozan I'd feel good about our team next offseason

Maybe I just haven't seen him enough, but I think of DeRozan in the same way as I think of Monta Ellis, Kevin Martin, Iggy, Tyreke Evans, etc - if they're a key starter you might win a lot of games, but you're never going to be a serious contender.