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WesleyMatthews said:
The problem I have with looking at it this way is the risk of a deviation from the average.

Often risk is bad. In the Blazers case a variance with risk of more or less than a Corey Brewer career is very good! The Blazers need to either get an all star or get a scrub. They don't want a mediocre player like Corey Brewer. The draft is one of the riskiest player acquisition routes.

Now if the Blazers we're already close to contending having risk might be bad, you might prefer the certainly of an average vet to give a cost controlled contribution of a solid bench player.

But the Blazers need a star level player to contend with Lillard. Yes most likely they won't get that with the 7th pick. But drafting BPA with the 7th pick is the highest chance they do have to get that star type player.

Trading it for the mediocre vets you mention, while clearly better than Brewer, doesn't get the Blazers closer to the star needed to contend.
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There is really only one star level player on the roster (I don't think Ant will be an all-NBA player). Sounds like you'd be open to trading all players not named Dame for a bunch of draft picks in the hope you get a 2nd star? If you really want to increase the odds Portland gets a star, you need to add Ant into a trade with #7 and other assets to move into the top 3. I'm not sure that's wise though.
 
Tince said:
There is really only one star level player on the roster (I don't think Ant will be an all-NBA player). Sounds like you'd be open to trading all players not named Dame for a bunch of draft picks in the hope you get a 2nd star? If you really want to increase the odds Portland gets a star, you need to add Ant into a trade with #7 and other assets to move into the top 3. I'm not sure that's wise though.
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I'd be open to trading all players for picks including Ant and Lillard. However it appears the Blazers won't consider trading Lillard now.

Ant while I agree is unlikely to be AllNBA, might have a better chance of doing it than most draft picks so I'm fine keeping him until that's determined. If later his ceiling solidifies at a tier below that level, as Grant and OG have, then trade him.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
I'd be open to trading all players for picks including Ant and Lillard. However it appears the Blazers won't consider trading Lillard now.

Ant while I agree is unlikely to be AllNBA, might have a better chance of doing it than most draft picks so I'm fine keeping him until that's determined. If later his ceiling solidifies at a tier below that level, as Grant and OG have, then trade him.
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In your eyes, how many first round picks would we need to get for Lillard in order for us to be more likely than not to draft someone who ends up better than him? I'd think mathmatically, that number would need to be high. And your goal is to increase the number of stars, so in reality, we would want Lillard to net us 2 stars, so that number would need to be even higher. The third risky part about that strategy is once we get lucky and draft the 2 stars, we have to figure out a way to keep them in Portland for 3 contracts. Top players staying in one place used to be far more common.

I'm not saying someone can't get rich dumping all their retirement savings into Powerball tickets, but I'm also not advising it as a great strategy. Trading Lillard for picks, hoping he nets you two star players kinda feels like that.
 
Tince said:
In your eyes, how many first round picks would we need to get for Lillard in order for us to be more likely than not to draft someone who ends up better than him? I'd think mathmatically, that number would need to be high. And your goal is to increase the number of stars, so in reality, we would want Lillard to net us 2 stars, so that number would need to be even higher. The third risky part about that strategy is once we get lucky and draft the 2 stars, we have to figure out a way to keep them in Portland for 3 contracts. Top players staying in one place used to be far more common.

I'm not saying someone can't get rich dumping all their retirement savings into Powerball tickets, but I'm also not advising it as a great strategy. Trading Lillard for picks, hoping he nets you two star players kinda feels like that.
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The reason to trade Lillard isn't to get more than the one star level player he is, I'd be very happy to get one guaranteed young star for him. The reason to trade him is because he is old. If Lillard was 24 right now I wouldn't trade him. If the Blazers had more talent on the roster, thus only being one or two key pieces away from contending I wouldn't trade him.

But Lillard will be 32 in a few days. Peak NBA performance age is usually in the 26-28 age range. Many more stars decline or have injury problems in their 30's. I don't think its a coincidence Dame missed his first year+ with an injury now when he is over the age of 30. Maybe he will be healthy going forward, maybe not. Yes Steph is aging well, CP3 is still super good, and LeBron has played at a high level in his late 30's, although LeBron is nowhere near his GOAT level peak. However those age 30+ high level stars are the exceptions, not the general rule. Those players have declined significantly in their 30's' and currently have multiple All-NBA teammates around them when they do succeed in the playoffs.

The Blazers have no such All-NBA teammates for Dame, the Blazers have the third worst future franchise rankings per ESPN ahead of only the Wizards and Kings; which is shocking when you consider that is with Lillard. Remove Lillard and this is arguably the worst roster in the NBA.

The chance of being able to build a contender in Portland before Dame physically declines from his star level play is an extremely unlikely long shot at best. That is the reason I would be open to trading Lillard for picks. The picks would have a chance to contribute in 5-10+ years from now either directly as a player drafted that develop; or indirectly in a trade for a needed starter.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
The reason to trade Lillard isn't to get more than the one star level player he is, I'd be very happy to get one guaranteed young star for him. The reason to trade him is because he is old. If Lillard was 24 right now I wouldn't trade him. If the Blazers had more talent on the roster, thus only being one or two key pieces away from contending I wouldn't trade him.

But Lillard will be 32 in a few days. Peak NBA performance age is usually in the 26-28 age range. Many more stars decline or have injury problems in their 30's. I don't think its a coincidence Dame missed his first year+ with an injury now when he is over the age of 30. Maybe he will be healthy going forward, maybe not. Yes Steph is aging well, CP3 is still super good, and LeBron has played at a high level in his late 30's, although LeBron is nowhere near his GOAT level peak. However those age 30+ high level stars are the exceptions, not the general rule. Those players have declined significantly in their 30's' and currently have multiple All-NBA teammates around them when they do succeed in the playoffs.

The Blazers have no such All-NBA teammates for Dame, the Blazers have the third worst future franchise rankings per ESPN ahead of only the Wizards and Kings; which is shocking when you consider that is with Lillard. Remove Lillard and this is arguably the worst roster in the NBA.

The chance of being able to build a contender in Portland before Dame physically declines from his star level play is an extremely unlikely long shot at best. That is the reason I would be open to trading Lillard for picks. The picks would have a chance to contribute in 5-10+ years from now either directly as a player drafted that develop; or indirectly in a trade for a needed starter.
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Plus he still has a lot of value and could help us rebuild quicker.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
The reason to trade Lillard isn't to get more than the one star level player he is, I'd be very happy to get one guaranteed young star for him. The reason to trade him is because he is old. If Lillard was 24 right now I wouldn't trade him. If the Blazers had more talent on the roster, thus only being one or two key pieces away from contending I wouldn't trade him.

But Lillard will be 32 in a few days. Peak NBA performance age is usually in the 26-28 age range.
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Um, no it's not. That's when they say peak performance STARTS, not when they peak.
 
THE HCP said:
Is was always told that the players hit their prime at 30.
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Though it was years back when I was told this probably by Shonz during broadcasts, the mythical NBA players prime years if they'd avoided joint injuries was ages 28-32. Nutrition and medical advances may have expanded that window, but since we're talking Dame I'll relay he turns 32 in less then a month.

STOMP
 
WesleyMatthews said:
That is not what research has shown;

"However, researchers who looked at the lifetime careers of several NBA players and studied when each player was in their prime have determined that the time of prime NBA player performance is when they’re 27 years old."

https://www.sportscasting.com/the-exact-age-that-nba-players-are-in-their-prime/
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I don't think that means that they're at their best. It just means they're athletically peaking, but peaking athletically doesn't mean they're the best they will be.

Damian is a better *player* today than he was at 27.
 
STOMP said:
Though it was years back when I was told this probably by Shonz during broadcasts, the mythical NBA players prime years if they'd avoided joint injuries was ages 28-32. Nutrition and medical advances may have expanded that window, but since we're talking Dame I'll relay he turns 32 in less then a month.

STOMP
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From the same article I mentioned;

"To most of us, 27 seems like a young age to hit your prime which makes it natural to ask why NBA players peak so young, but when you look at the prime age in comparison to other sports, it’s not so young at all. Most ice skaters, swimmers, and gymnasts start worrying about whether they’re too old to be competitive when they are still in their early 20s."
...
"The good news is that while the age that NBA players are hitting their peak doesn’t seem to be changing, it does appear that top players are able to stay in the game far longer than they used to."
 
julius said:
I don't think that means that they're at their best. It just means they're athletically peaking, but peaking athletically doesn't mean they're the best they will be.

Damian is a better *player* today than he was at 27.
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I read another study previously that I can't find now, but it used peak PER stat and this was in the same 26-28 age range.

Yes some players extend that into their 30's or even have their peak a number of year later than the 26-28. But on average this is the statistical expectation.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
I read another study previously that I can't find now, but it used peak PER stat and this was in the same 26-28 age range.

Yes some players extend that into their 30's or even have their peak a number of year later than the 26-28. But on average this is the statistical expectation.
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Which means it doesn't apply to everyone, and is a poor justification to trade Damian.
 
"NBA All-Star games. These games are designed to highlight the best and brightest players each season. There have only been about 12 players to have ever appeared in the NBA All-Star game after passing their 35th birthday. "

So Dame is 3 years away from this cutoff. That is really the problem with the Blazers being so far away from building a contender, and to attempt to do it with a 32 year old Lillard. Statistically its extremely unlikely Dame with still be an all star at that time in 3 years.

Could Dame buck the odds and still be at that level? Sure, anything is possible. But as they say father time is undefeated, and betting on Lillard to defy those odds doesn't seem to be a likely bet if you look at it from a purely unbiased statistical perspective.
 
What is Dame's most irreplaceable skill? Clutchness.

Will father time take that away? Perhaps - if we run him into the ground like Stotts. Perhaps not - if we build a team of athletes around him that can carry the team to those final moments where Dame shines. That is what I want, a complete team offensively and defensively with Dame being the cherry on top. Outlandish? Maybe - but it's the path we are attempting and if we're able to get it done the reward of seeing Dame win a title here would be absolutely incredible.
 
HailBlazers said:
What is Dame's most irreplaceable skill? Clutchness.

Will father time take that away? Perhaps - if we run him into the ground like Stotts. Perhaps not - if we build a team of athletes around him that can carry the team to those final moments where Dame shines. That is what I want, a complete team offensively and defensively with Dame being the cherry on top. Outlandish? Maybe - but it's the path we are attempting and if we're able to get it done the reward of seeing Dame win a title here would be absolutely incredible.
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I'm not sure what you mean by the path we are attempting.

What is a single action the Blazers have taken to as you say field "a complete team offensively and defensively with Dame being the cherry"?
 
HailBlazers said:
What is Dame's most irreplaceable skill? Clutchness.

Will father time take that away? Perhaps - if we run him into the ground like Stotts. Perhaps not - if we build a team of athletes around him that can carry the team to those final moments where Dame shines. That is what I want, a complete team offensively and defensively with Dame being the cherry on top. Outlandish? Maybe - but it's the path we are attempting and if we're able to get it done the reward of seeing Dame win a title here would be absolutely incredible.
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i think dame's most irreplaceable skills are intangible: it's his empowerment of teammates and his calming presence in the face of adversity.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
What is a single action the Blazers have taken to as you say field "a complete team offensively and defensively with Dame being the cherry"?
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Signing Ant to a long term contract would be one. Drafting a high upside talent would be two. I'm not of the belief they are going to double down on the Neil moves of the past but we'll see if Mediocre Man is right.
 
HailBlazers said:
Signing Ant to a long term contract would be one. Drafting a high upside talent would be two. I'm not of the belief they are going to double down on the Neil moves of the past but we'll see if Mediocre Man is right.
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Your statement was present tense, the "path we are attempting". But none of your actions have happened.

If instead you mean the Blazers haven't done anything to attempt this path of building a complete team I agree. Perhaps its your hope they can and or will start succeeding at that.

I'm extremely pessimistic the Blazers will or even have the resources to build such a team. I'd love to be proven wrong.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
Your statement was present tense, the "path we are attempting". But none of your actions have happened.

If instead you mean the Blazers haven't done anything to attempt this path of building a team around Dame I agree. Perhaps its your hope they can and will start succeeding at that.

I'm extremely pessimistic the Blazers will or even have the resources to build such a team. I'd love to be proven wrong.
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Hello,

attempting means has not been completed yet.

attempted means completed. Whether a success or a failure.
 
BlazerBender said:
Hello,

attempting means has not been completed yet.

attempted means completed. Whether a success or a failure.
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Thanks. Yeah I'm not an English expert; what I meant was his statement "we are attempting" sounds as though this has begun, so there should be an action that shows it is happening, or something that shows it has begun.

If that is incorrect, perhaps I just misread or misunderstood the statement, and it means the same as "a path we will attempt" in other words nothing has happened to show the Blazers are current doing or currently have started this action.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
Thanks. Yeah I'm not an English expert; what I meant was his statement "we are attempting" sounds as though this has begun, so there should be an action that shows it is happening, or something that shows it has begun.

If that is incorrect, perhaps I just misread or misunderstood the statement, and it means the same as "a path we will attempt" in other words nothing has happened to show the Blazers are current doing or currently have started this action.
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Ant wouldn't have agreed to tank if we hadn't already agreed on a framework for a nice new contract for him IMO.

Yes I'm being optimistic but it seems logical to me they will do their best to surround Dame with talent but also youth so that the value of the franchise will remain high for auction.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
Thanks. Yeah I'm not an English expert; what I meant was his statement "we are attempting" sounds as though this has begun, so there should be an action that shows it is happening, or something that shows it has begun.

If that is incorrect, perhaps I just misread or misunderstood the statement, and it means the same as "a path we will attempt" in other words nothing has happened to show the Blazers are current doing or currently have started this action.
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All good and Fair enough. Sometimes things need to happen in steps. I would say the first attempt was cleaning house and that has been done and was successful in my opinion. Im not sure we could have got a better first time coach. ( I know this happened prior to Cronin, but that means Cronin and him need time to gameplan and come together on a plan). I also like the assistant hirings. We cleared the roster of albatross middling contracts to provide flexibility/maneuverability.

To me, these are steps in the attempt. As far as spending the money and/or trading/making moves, Im glad we aren’t making early moves like we did with the trades.
If NO did one thing right, it was keeping his game plan from the public. Im fine with that.
Lets see how the draft pans out and it might soon answer more of your questions regarding attempting. Hopefully positively. :)
 
THE HCP said:
Is was always told that the players hit their prime at 30.
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Can you imagine some GM saying "we should trade Lebron, he's 29, past his peak, and we could rebuild quicker w/out him." Only to watch him be an All-NBA talent for another decade, while they drafted Wiggins, Anthony Bennett, and Tyus Jones with their furture 1st round picks.
 
Tince said:
Can you imagine some GM saying "we should trade Lebron, he's 29, past his peak, and we could rebuild quicker w/out him." Only to watch him be an All-NBA talent for another decade, while they drafted Wiggins, Anthony Bennett, and Tyus Jones with their furture 1st round picks.
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Lillard is more comparable to Paul Pierce than Lebron James.
 
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