Fire Stotts Eventually

[calvin natt]

I just wanted to pop in and let everyone know that nobody has convinced anyone of anything and everyone's opinions remain the same.

Carry on

 

[hoopsjock]

I just wanted to pop in and let everyone know that nobody has convinced anyone of anything and everyone's opinions remain the same.

Carry on

Here's the thing, I don't care if people like Stotts and am not trying to change their mind.

 

[riverman]

Here's the thing, I don't care if people like Stotts and am not trying to change their mind.

That's where I'm at..but respect for opposing opinions concerning Stotts fans is seriously lacking ...it is a Fire Stotts thread....as a big fan of Stotts I'll express why I'm a fan...more people spend time trying to sell me on why he's never going to have success than agree to disagree...hence...debates happen

 

[kjironman1]

it has always been a race to the most buckets. But there are two ways to win the race: score a lot or keep the other guys from scoring a lot. Actually best plan is to score a lot AND keep the other guys from scoring a lot. That's where championships are made

I agree with that. You do have to play well on both sides of the ball.
I also agree the very best teams do have the ability to get stops at crucial times. Doesn't always correlate to having a top 5 defense. A top 10 defense is what even Stotts says he wants to see.
What i am seeing is this team starting to gel a bit on defense. They are starting to see each other on that end and communicate better. They have some issues with personnel that could be helped with some health. In essence i feel they need Nurk back playing at a high level. That would help a bunch.
The team seems to be playing with better energy in crunch time. I hope it continues. If they continue to improve i don't really care what their season ranking is. I want them healthy and playing well in the playoffs.
It would really help to have a good enough record/seed to not have to play their way into the playoffs. Rest will be huge like always.

 

[Tince]

I don't think top-5 is reasonable, but certainly middle of the pack. I also don't believe the offense would look any worse with any coach. Anyone can throw the ball out there and run the most ISO's and 4th most PnR's in the league while shooting the most contested shots.

Here is why the defense has been good in the past but isn't now. Anyone who has played against the Blazers during the Dame/CJ era has played pretty much the same defense. So every time a player plays against us they know before the game starts how we will most likely defend them and what shots or passes will be available throughout the game. Randomly in a few games against Harden we've trapped him and it's been super successful. This is because we took him off guard. Having one defensive scheme against every team and every ball handler for multiple years will never work out long term. You have to be less predictable and take shooters out of their comfort zones. Until the Blazers realize that in the playoffs you have to be prepared to switch up your defense from game to game, quarter to quarter, ball handler to ball handler, then it will rarely translate to post season success even if it's good in the regular season.

What is your explination for the big change in 2017-18 if nothing changes from a scheme standpoint and the personel isn't the main cause for defensive rankings?

 

[BonesJones]

That's where I'm at..but respect for opposing opinions concerning Stotts fans is seriously lacking ...it is a Fire Stotts thread....as a big fan of Stotts I'll express why I'm a fan...more people spend time trying to sell me on why he's never going to have success than agree to disagree...hence...debates happen

Its because of the way in which people attack Stotts criticism or the way in which they argue their pro-Stotts viewpoints. Not because of the viewpoint itself.

 

[Hoopguru]

Bang Bang

 

[kjironman1]

Man. Some people must not read their own posts?
Going on 108 pages.

 

[riverman]

Its because of the way in which people attack Stotts criticism or the way in which they argue their pro-Stotts viewpoints. Not because of the viewpoint itself.

nah....I don't post that someone who wants to fire Stotts will do it just because they're happy with mediocrity....just an example...if I say Stotts develops his bench at the expense of defensive stats....that's not me attacking people who just hate the guy and rage about his style of coaching.....to tell me I'm not justified in my Stotts appreciation is not me attacking a view...it's a theme about Stotts detractors that's gone on for many years now...this isn't something new at all. I'd love to talk basketball without the condescension but there's a contingency that seems to need that angst. I also believe superstar teams get calls that prop up their stats.....see any team Lebron is on. We don't get calls...never have....so when refs don't let you play defense....the playing field isn't equal. The worst thing to me about the league is the lack of parity calling games. For the record...Dame agrees with my opinion about Stotts and the refs

 

[wizenheimer]

I have been supporting my view !

ok fine....I just didn't see any support; still don't. In the middle of a discussion about a correlation between good team defense and NBA champions, you started talking about Rudy Gobert and the Memphis Grizzlies. Tangents that aren't really relevant to what was being discussed. Excellent defensive teams can be average overall teams. Happens all the time. That does not disprove the correlation....like this season: the Knicks are #2 in the league in defense, and #1 in opponent 3ptFG%, but are only one game over .500 with 13 other teams having a better record. Short of a miracle trade, they probably aren't going anywhere in the playoffs

as far as DPOY not winning a championship the same year....forget about that. In the last 20 years, only 4 MVP's have won a championship the year they won MVP. Curry in 2015; Lebron in 2012-13; and Tim Duncan 19 years ago. Championships are won by the team

 

[riverman]

In the middle of a discussion about a correlation between good team defense and NBA champions, you started talking about Rudy Gobert and the Memphis Grizzlies.

There is no "in the middle of a discussion here" it's a forum msg board...we post and react to posts..you don't need to value my examples.....choices...you may have a discussion template that you need to keep on track....I don't....

 

[Hoopguru]

Nets have the #1 offense in league right now and many say they are the fav to win it all. However, their D is almost as bad as ours so if they end up in the finals for the EC against the best defensive team in the league Utah, who wins?

 

[JDC]

Nets have the #1 offense on league right now and m,any say they are the fav to win it all. However, their D is almost as bad as ours so if they end up in the finals for the EC against the defensive team in the league Utah, who wins?

I'd take the Nets pretty easily, both teams healthy.

Nets don't beat you by getting to the rim which limits Gobert's defensive value. Great pull up shooters to force him to guard further out in ball screens.

They can also put out some pretty switchable lineups defensively to help neutralize Utah's heavy pick and roll / drive and kick offense.

 

[wizenheimer]

There is no "in the middle of a discussion here" it's a forum msg board...we post and react to posts..you don't need to value my examples.....choices...you may have a discussion template that you need to keep on track....I don't....

again fine.....but then I really have no clue what it is you're saying

try this: there is a correlation that shows NBA champions almost always have a top-10 defense. Agree or disagree?

 

[Hoopguru]

I'd take the Nets pretty easily, both teams healthy.

Nets don't beat you by getting to the rim which limits Gobert's defensive value. Great pull up shooters to force him to guard further out in ball screens.

They can also put out some pretty switchable lineups defensively to help neutralize Utah's heavy pick and roll / drive and kick defense.

I think their offense would beat just about anyone if healthy even against the best defensive teams.

 

[wizenheimer]

I don't have time to go through it all so I'll just do the last 10 years but here are the regular season defensive ratings of the conference finals teams (Champ listed first, runner up second):

2020: Lakers 3rd/Heat 9th/Nuggets 11th/Celtics 5th
2019: Raptors 5th/Warriors 13th/Blazers 16th/Bucks 1st
2018: Warriors 11th/Cavs 29th/Celtics 1st/Rockets 6th
2017: Warriors 2nd/Cavs 21st/Spurs 1st/Celtics 13th
2016: Cavs 10th/Warriors 5th/Thunder 13th/Raptors 11th
2015: Warriors 1st/Cavs 18th/Rockets 8th/Hawks 6th
2014: Spurs 3rd/Heat 11th/Pacers 1st/ Thunder 6th
2013: Heat 9th/Spurs 3rd/Pacers 1st/Grizzlies 2nd
2012: Heat 4th/Thunder 11th/Celtics 1st/Spurs 10th
2011: Mavericks 8th/Heat 5th/Bulls 1st/Thunder 15th

just saw this and it's pretty interesting. Thanks HJ. So, 40 teams made the conference finals and only 4 of the 40 had defenses ranked in the bottom half of the league. Portland and the Cavs 3 times. And the Cavs played in 4 straight finals, losing 3 when their defenses were ranked 29th, 21st, and 18th. The single time they won the title is when they had a top-10 defense

when 35 out of 40 conference finals teams have better than average defense, there appears to be a correlation, especially considering that 4 of the 5 teams with below average defenses was one single team, the Cavs. And the other team got swept

and, 9 out of 10 champions had a top-10 defense, and 6 of those 9 had a top-5 defense

 

[BonesJones]

nah....I don't post that someone who wants to fire Stotts will do it just because they're happy with mediocrity....just an example...if I say Stotts develops his bench at the expense of defensive stats....that's not me attacking people who just hate the guy and rage about his style of coaching.....to tell me I'm not justified in my Stotts appreciation is not me attacking a view...it's a theme about Stotts detractors that's gone on for many years now...this isn't something new at all. I'd love to talk basketball without the condescension but there's a contingency that seems to need that angst. I also believe superstar teams get calls that prop up their stats.....see any team Lebron is on. We don't get calls...never have....so when refs don't let you play defense....the playing field isn't equal. The worst thing to me about the league is the lack of parity calling games. For the record...Dame agrees with my opinion about Stotts and the refs

Notice how I rarely respond to your thoughts on him and when I do, it's usually respectful. So it wasnt about you.

Using Dame, who would be loyal to any coach who'd been there at the start of his career is one of the arguments I'm not fond of. Dame didnt like trading Plumlee for Nurkic and a pick, but it was obviously the right move.

A lot (not all) pro-Stotts people argue in bad faith, move the goalposts, and deflect the conversation towards something else when they cant come up with a good response. That's the shit that annoys people. I respect the people that I can have a genuine conversation with.

And you should take a look at every big platform/media member out there. Almost all of them will personally insult you if you're not a Stotts fan. So if you have a problem with what you say you do, that should bother you too.

 

[hoopsjock]

What is your explination for the big change in 2017-18 if nothing changes from a scheme standpoint and the personel isn't the main cause for defensive rankings?

See here's the thing. If you get new personnel it makes your "look" on defense different even if you don't change the scheme cause Nurk is going to protect the rim better than Plumlee who would've been elite at trapping picks in a more aggressive defense. Sometimes it helps to have new personnel, sometimes it doesn't or gets worse but teams have access to every single play or defensive possession you've done in recent years. You HAVE to throw different looks now or you'll get exposed.

It's why Budenholzer isn't a good coach anymore. It's why Stotts isn't a good coach anymore either. They think because something worked in the past it will always work.

I read an interview with George Karl last year who actually said he'd rather lose in the playoffs because his system didn't work than change it at all and win. Stotts is a Karl disciple. Those kinds of coaches are becoming dinosaurs, IMO. It's obvious in the NFL and soon will be in the NBA too.

 

[JDC]

See here's the thing. If you get new personnel it makes your "look" on defense different even if you don't change the scheme cause Nurk is going to protect the rim better than Plumlee who would've been elite at trapping picks in a more aggressive defense. Sometimes it helps to have new personnel, sometimes it doesn't or gets worse but teams have access to every single play or defensive possession you've done in recent years. You HAVE to throw different looks now or you'll get exposed.

It's why Budenholzer isn't a good coach anymore. It's why Stotts isn't a good coach anymore either. They think because something worked in the past it will always work.

I read an interview with George Karl last year who actually said he'd rather lose in the playoffs because his system didn't work than change it at all and win. Stotts is a Karl disciple. Those kinds of coaches are becoming dinosaurs, IMO. It's obvious in the NFL and soon will be in the NBA too.

To Bud's credit, the Bucks have been trying some new things defensively. Still drop with Brook and Giannis as their base, but are more apt to get agressive if the ball handler is hurting them or switch if they are getting beat by the pick and pop 3.

Switching a lot more guard to guard actions too which has been nearly an automatic for most teams for years, but Bud had been reluctant to do.

Hasn't always looked great, and their personnel defensively off the bench has taken a big step back which I think are the main reasons they haven't been as good statistically on that end. It'll be interesting how that'll help come playoff time. Less Giannis 5 out at the top of the key in the half court too offensively. More Khris and Jrue late and have messed around with putting their guards in the dunker spot to force players to protect the rim that don't usually do.

I think we've seen the same with Terry, albeit to a lesser extent. He's gotten more aggressive with Kanter at times in pnr. Has been more willing to help off the ball in their drop or get into rotation if they have the big play higher in the drop or trap / hedge. Has been more conservative lately minus some late game stuff or against teams with a high usage ball handler and not a bunch of shooting on the floor (Luka this year, Harden in the past). Hard to say how much that is protecting Kanter due to his weaknesses and the fact that he's the only big (energy and foul concerns) or that Terry didn't like the barrage of threes we were giving up early in the year, including close to the highest rate of corner threes in the league. We will know more once Nurk is back.

 

[wizenheimer]

or that Terry didn't like the barrage of threes we were giving up early in the year, including close to the highest rate of corner threes in the league. We will know more once Nurk is back.

yeah, corner three's are the bane of the Stotts defense

(worst on top):





that factor, by itself, will keep Portland at the low end of defense if it's not corrected

what is even crazier, is that last season, Portland was better. Their opponent corner 3 percentage has dropped from .405 to .450. That's at the same time as their rate of allowed corner three's has jumped from .214 to .252

 

[JDC]

yeah, corner three's are the bane of the Stotts defense

(worst on top):

View attachment 37430

View attachment 37429

that factor, by itself, will keep Portland at the low end of defense if it's not corrected

what is even crazier, is that last season, Portland was better. Their opponent corner 3 percentage has dropped from .405 to .450. That's at the same time as their rate of allowed corner three's has jumped from .214 to .252

Hasn't always been like this though

Per Cleaning the Glass, top 2 in limiting corner threes 5 of the 7 seasons prior to 19-20 and never outside the top 10.

This year I attribute that mainly to the off ball defensive tweaks and getting more agressive in pnr at times. Helped off the strongside more than we needed to at times early in the year and the backside rotations were not sharp either (they are slowly getting better) when we had the big defend higher in ball screens.

19-20 the defensive personnel took a step back, especially after the injuries. And in the bubble, we couldn't get away with playing Melo and Zach at the 3 and 4 alongside Nurk. Minus that group not playing together at all, it's just not nearly enough mobility on the floor.

 

[blazerkor]

I just wanted to pop in and let everyone know that nobody has convinced anyone of anything and everyone's opinions remain the same.

Carry on

Not true. I was solidly on team "fire Stotts now" and after reading a lot of posts in here I am now on the "fire Olshey at the end of the season and let the new GM deal with Stotts, unless we make some noise in the conference finals or further" team. So opinions can be swayed but they can't be suede.

 

[calvin natt]

Not true. I was solidly on team "fire Stotts now" and after reading a lot of posts in here I am now on the "fire Olshey at the end of the season and let the new GM deal with Stotts, unless we make some noise in the conference finals or further" team. So opinions can be swayed but they can't be suede.

You’re special then

 

[blazerkor]

You’re special then

It was actually the other people in the "fire Stotts now" crowd that convinced me to chill out about it. So I'm pretty sure you were actually right because I was more dissuaded than persuaded.

 

[calvin natt]

It was actually the other people in the "fire Stotts now" crowd that convinced me to chill out about it. So I'm pretty sure you were actually right because I was more dissuaded than persuaded.

See, there you go. I knew you weren’t the first person in forum history to have their mind changed by someone else. One thing you won’t read here: wow. I’ve changed my mind. My opinion has changed due to your post(s)

 

[Hoopguru]

See, there you go. I knew you weren’t the first person in forum history to have their mind changed by someone else. One thing you won’t read here: wow. I’ve changed my mind. My opinion has changed due to your post(s)

I think we should change uni colors, you on board?

 

[Tince]

yeah, corner three's are the bane of the Stotts defense

(worst on top):

View attachment 37430

View attachment 37429

that factor, by itself, will keep Portland at the low end of defense if it's not corrected

what is even crazier, is that last season, Portland was better. Their opponent corner 3 percentage has dropped from .405 to .450. That's at the same time as their rate of allowed corner three's has jumped from .214 to .252

Great post, very interesting!

So did we change or defense this year which is causing us to give up more corner 3's? Teams are running offense looking for more corner 3's? Either way, the numbers look bad!

 

[riverman]

Notice how I rarely respond to your thoughts on him and when I do, it's usually respectful. So it wasnt about you.

I appreciate that Torey.....and I don't argue in your youtube chats for the same reason.....you have, however, given likes to most every poster who's come at me with the "happy with mediocrity" attacks ...and trying to discuss why Stotts coaches the style he does doesn't get respected in this forum much at all...actually I listened to one of your podcasts after a good win a few weeks ago and thought it was excellent...and you actually credited Stotts with the win.....I came back for more and Eric was yelling at his mike about Stotts for not playing Nas to the point I had to take the volume on my speaker down to keep it from rattling....it was an anti Melo rant if I remember.....turns out...Nas was dealing with a sore knee and Stotts was being careful but....to the casual observer, that wasn't the narrative. I think also that the reliance on the phrase "injury excuse" could better be used as...."injury reality".....a team that's had it's core playing together develops chemistry...we've had 8 starting lineups in 34 games and held our own....I'd say this season is exceeding expectations given the circumstance of our team. Why that becomes a "homer excuse" is baffling to me.

 

[B-Roy]

Hasn't always been like this though

Per Cleaning the Glass, top 2 in limiting corner threes 5 of the 7 seasons prior to 19-20 and never outside the top 10.

This year I attribute that mainly to the off ball defensive tweaks and getting more agressive in pnr at times. Helped off the strongside more than we needed to at times early in the year and the backside rotations were not sharp either (they are slowly getting better) when we had the big defend higher in ball screens.

19-20 the defensive personnel took a step back, especially after the injuries. And in the bubble, we couldn't get away with playing Melo and Zach at the 3 and 4 alongside Nurk. Minus that group not playing together at all, it's just not nearly enough mobility on the floor.

Cleaning the glass is great. Having percentiles really puts things into context, especially since the game is changing so quickly each season. It's hard to even compare seasons from 2014-202 right now without considering a lot of context.

 

[RoseCityRebel]

Some of the best defenders in the NBA aren't even that athletic compared to players who should be great defensively. It's about effort, accountability, technique, and scheme in my opinion. Sure there are outliers like Meyers Leonard doesn't process the game fast enough to be a good help defender, but for the most part you can have a good defense just by teaching them how to be in synch. Look at NY this year with basically the same roster as an example of that.

Dame and CJ after 9/8 years under Stotts still don't even know how to properly go through a pick and are constantly falling asleep off ball. A good coach could clean these bad habits up and the defense by default would be in the top-20. Start implementing better game plans for specific opponents and the personnel is absolutely good enough to be middle of the road. There is no excuse for it being this bad and not really doing much to change anything either scheme wise or bringing in an assistant who can get more out of them.

A lot of Thib’s “defense” is based on grinding out possessions on both ends of the court. It’s as close to early ‘90s ball as you can get these days and they are still only a .500 in an awful conference other than the top three teams. Their offensive efficiency is horrible.