Yeah, there are two choices here, not all the other teams you mentioned. It is NJ or CAR.
At first I was very much I rather play NJ. Then seeing how well they have played, and CAR losing Pac and Svech, and I don't trust their goalie, made me start to think I rather play CAR. But as called out, I don't like the revenge factor for them against us in the very first round. I think I slightly rather play CAR based on talent alone, but Mess has a great point on NJ - young team getting MO with a round 1 win. It is very close and almost a coin flip IMO. So I am not sweating it too much, where as earlier I was all in on much rather play NJ.
We can go a long way in determining our round 1 opponent the next two games against CAR. If either team wins both that will really help or really hurt CAR.
Right now CAR has an edge, 1 point up and 2 games in hand on NJ.