Fish or cut bait.

[Nikolokolus]

I saw an interesting thread on another forum where a Sacto fan suggested a trade package of Jason Thompson + this year's first round pick for Greg Oden. Personally I don't think Geoff Petrie would actually offer that, but for the sake of argument let's say that was on the table, would you pull the trigger?

I say yes, not because I don't think Greg is talented, but mostly because I don't think he's a good bet as a foundational piece moving forward. Secondly, the Kings are likely to have a pretty high lotto pick this year which puts us in the sweet spot to maybe pick one of these fairly talented big men coming out of the draft.

Now for some of you, don't get all worked up and pissed off, this is just one of those things that struck me as an interesting trade-off trade, basically going for the lower risk, lower reward player moving forward versus a high reward, high risk player.

Thoughts?

 

[maxiep]

Not me. I believe in Greg Oden and his future health.

 

[tlongII]

Nope, wouldn't do it. G.O. gives us our best opportunity for a championship.

 

[andalusian]

I would not do it as well. It's a big risk/big reward move to keep GO - and if the goal is the ring - he is still the best building block for that. Might never happen - but if he can stay healthy or at least, healthier, the Blazers chances of organizing a parade downtown go through GO.

 

[RoyToy]

Lol.

 

[Natebishop3]

I saw an interesting thread on another forum where a Sacto fan suggested a trade package of Jason Thompson + this year's first round pick for Greg Oden. Personally I don't think Geoff Petrie would actually offer that, but for the sake of argument let's say that was on the table, would you pull the trigger?

I say yes, not because I don't think Greg is talented, but mostly because I don't think he's a good bet as a foundational piece moving forward. Secondly, the Kings are likely to have a pretty high lotto pick this year which puts us in the sweet spot to maybe pick one of these fairly talented big men coming out of the draft.

Now for some of you, don't get all worked up and pissed off, this is just one of those things that struck me as an interesting trade-off trade, basically going for the lower risk, lower reward player moving forward versus a high reward, high risk player.

Thoughts?

I might do it. I think most Blazer fans are too scared to even think about Greg being a bust. We're just barely seeing people admit that we should have taken Durant. I like to call it Sam Bowie-itis. Many are unwilling to even think that we might have made the same mistake twice. Trading Greg now would only cement that mistake, and it would be a sobering moment for many in Portland.

 

[Boob-No-More]

The ONLY way you EVER do that is of you are 100% convinced that 22-year old Greg Oden will NEVER, EVER be healthy for the majority of an NBA season.

Prior to the fractured knee cap, he had a 23.4 PER, was leading the league in BLK% and was top 3 in TRB%. He was, with less than a full season of total NBA experience, becoming the game changing presence we all hoped he'd be when he was drafted.

Yes, the injuries have been a huge set back, but I am still convinced he will eventually be healthy enough to lead us to an NBA title. A fractured patella is a broken bone. It's hardly career threatening - and prior to that setback he was was showing that he was on track for the typical recovery period from microfracture surgery.

Jason Thompson would be a back-up power forward for us. A very nice back-up power forward, but when was the last time a back-up power forward led a team to an NBA title?

The lottery pick would be nice, but there is no one in this draft who could have the same impact as a healthy Greg Oden. And giving up Oden for Thompson and a rookie big man would be a set back while we wait for that rookie to develop.

And, even if we did win the lottery, there is no guarantee the player we selected would be any healthier than Greg Oden (see Blake Griffin).

I say we stick with Greg. We have a lot invested in him. He's insanely productive when he's on the court. I'm convinced he will completely recover from this latest injury and will be an absolute beast next year and moving forward beyond that.

BNM

 

[Natebishop3]

The ONLY way you EVER do that is of you are 100% convinced that 22-year old Greg Oden will NEVER, EVER be healthy for the majority of an NBA season.

Prior to the fractured knee cap, he had a 23.4 PER, was leading the league in BLK% and was top 3 in TRB%. He was, with less than a full season of total NBA experience, becoming the game changing presence we all hoped he'd be when he was drafted.

Yes, the injuries have been a huge set back, but I am still convinced he will eventually be healthy enough to lead us to an NBA title. A fractured patella is a broken bone. It's hardly career threatening - and prior to that setback he was was showing that he was on track for the typical recovery period from microfracture surgery.

Jason Thompson would be a back-up power forward for us. A very nice back-up power forward, but when was the last time a back-up power forward led a team to an NBA title?

The lottery pick would be nice, but there is no one in this draft who could have the same impact as a healthy Greg Oden. And giving up Oden for Thompson and a rookie big man would be a set back while we wait for that rookie to develop.

And, even if we did win the lottery, there is no guarantee the player we selected would be any healthier than Greg Oden (see Blake Griffin).

I say we stick with Greg. We have a lot invested in him. He's insanely productive when he's on the court. I'm convinced he will completely recover from this latest injury and will be an absolute beast next year and moving forward beyond that.

BNM

What's the recovery time though? Will he be back at 100% next season? Will he be in game shape? I'm hoping he doesn't come back overweight like he did in 08-09.

 

[CanadianBlazer]

You know... that is not a bad idea.

Jason Thompson - 23 years old. 6'11'' 250 and puts up 13 and 9 with 2 assists a game.

If we get their pick too? That is a potential #1 pick. That could get us John Wall. Would you trade Greg Oden for Thompson and Wall? Um, yes.

Even if we don't get #1, let's say we get #2 - we get our choice from Cousins, Aldrich, Turner, Favors, Davis... there are a LOT of good big men in the draft next year. I would take Aldrich or Cousins. from what I have seen of them so far.

Hell, I would throw Rudy in on the deal and they give us Casspi.

Miller - Bayless - Mills
Roy - Webster
Batum - Casspi - Cunningham
Aldridge - Cousins - Pendergraph
Przybilla - Thompson (Maybe Camby?)

I like that!!! I love Oden and all, but he has not proven he can stay healthy, even in high school and this is a business. Jason Thompson has not missed any games in his career yet.

 

[andalusian]

What's the recovery time though? Will he be back at 100% next season? Will he be in game shape? I'm hoping he doesn't come back overweight like he did in 08-09.

Who knows? It is clearly a high-risk, high-reward decision to continue to build around GO.

But, let's face it - the only way this proposed trade make us better is if the Kings #1 somehow lucks into John Wall and John Wall proves to be a great, great corner stone for a championship run (which he might be, but who really knows?).

So, we have maybe 3-5% chance of winning that lottery, compounded by whatever the percentage is that Wall is that good, and then you have to wonder if he can co-exist in the back-court with Roy.

So - I still think that going with GO is a better chance of being the key to a championship run vs. the proposed trade.

 

[BlazerBeav]

The ONLY way you EVER do that is of you are 100% convinced that 22-year old Greg Oden will NEVER, EVER be healthy for the majority of an NBA season.

Precisely. The only way to make a thus far unfortunate series of events worse would be to trade Oden for 10 cents on the dollar, only to have him become the game-changing force we all hope he will be. Can you imagine what this board would be like then?

 

[bbc23]

The ONLY way you EVER do that is of you are 100% convinced that 22-year old Greg Oden will NEVER, EVER be healthy for the majority of an NBA season.

and this is why the Kings would not make this move

 

[Boob-No-More]

What's the recovery time though? Will he be back at 100% next season? Will he be in game shape? I'm hoping he doesn't come back overweight like he did in 08-09.

The typical healing time for a non-operative patella fracture is 6 - 8 weeks. That's how long the knee joint mush be immobilized. Greg is already beyond that point and can now begin varying degrees of physical therapy. It's now a matter of strengthening the muscles around the knee cap (to prevent further injury), improving flexibility and finally getting back in shape.

Oden's comments about returning this season are optimistic, but there is no reason why he can't resume a full work out regime over the summer and be back to full contact work outs by the start of training camp. Unless there are further complications, he should be ready to start next season on the active roster.

BNM

 

[axs88]

No. Jason Thompson and a mid lottery rookie big man does not take us any closer to a championship. A healthy Greg does. Yes, he may turn out to be Bowie but I'm sure there are a number of players who overcame years and years of injuries to play several full seasons later (Ilgauskas comes to mind).

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Only if a top-3 pick is involved do you do it. Thompson + Wall/Turner/Cousins > Oden, IMO.

 

[Boob-No-More]

and this is why the Kings would not make this move

And it's also the reason they are the Sacramento Kings. Tyreke Evans is a nice player, but that team isn't going anywhere any time soon. They got off to a quick start this season and people started talking about them as a play-off contender and "team of the future". Then reality set in.

They are 5-23 over their last 28 games and going nowhere fast (except back to the lottery).

Trading for Oden would be a risk, due to his injury history, but the potential reward is huge. If healthy, Oden gets them to the post season quicker than any player on their current roster and quicker than any player they could select in this year's draft. They have had lottery picks three years in a row, and where has it gotten them? They are still one of the worst teams in the league.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

No. Jason Thompson and a mid lottery rookie big man does not take us any closer to a championship. A healthy Greg does. Yes, he may turn out to be Bowie but I'm sure there are a number of players who overcame years and years of injuries to play several full seasons later (Ilgauskas comes to mind).

Heck, even Shaq suffered years of injuries leading up to his first NBA championship. His injuries were not as severe as Oden's, but in the three seasons when he was 23 - 25, he played in 54, 51 and 60 games. That's an average of 27 missed games a season over that three year period.

BNM

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Thompson is strictly a PF like LaMarcus.

Though, if we can land Aldrich I'd probably do it.

Whoever trades for Greg is taking a HUGE risk. Is Sacramento crazy enough? are any teams crazy enough?

 

[oldmangrouch]

As things stand, the Kings are almost certain to get a top 6 pick. As of today, they have a 12% at the #1 pick. On top of that, the Blazers get a nice, uesful player in Thompson.

Hell yes you take that deal. Bowie for Williams version 2.0.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

The key wouldn't be Thompson, It'd be the pick and hopefully Cole Aldrich.

 

[Boob-No-More]

As things stand, the Kings are almost certain to get a top 6 pick. As of today, they have a 12% at the #1 pick. On top of that, the Blazers get a nice, uesful player in Thompson.

Hell yes you take that deal. Bowie for Williams version 2.0.

Sam Bowie was 28 when he was traded to New Jersey. I'm willing to give Oden, who just turned 22, a few more years before I give up on him all together.

And, I'm sure if SAC did make such a trade, they'd protect the lottery pick. Probably top 3 protected, at the very least top 1 protected.

BNM

 

[Natebishop3]

Sam Bowie was 28 when he was traded to New Jersey. I'm willing to give Oden, who just turned 22, a few more years before I give up on him all together.

And, I'm sure if SAC did make such a trade, they'd protect the lottery pick. Probably top 3 protected, at the very least top 1 protected.

BNM

If that were the case, it really wouldn't be worth it.

 

[Boob-No-More]

The key wouldn't be Thompson, It'd be the pick and hopefully Cole Aldrich.

You think SAC would make this trade without making the pick top 3 protected? We'd need them to NOT protect the pic AND defy the odds in the lottery. No thanks.

BNM

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

That's why you make the move on draft day.

Trading for a protected pick is like walking in the dark.

 

[oldmangrouch]

If that were the case, it really wouldn't be worth it.

Ditto. The pick would have to be unconditional.

 

[axs88]

The key wouldn't be Thompson, It'd be the pick and hopefully Cole Aldrich.

No offense (really), just want to check if I remember right: were you the poster who was saying (when Oden had MF) that we needed to draft DeAndre Jordan because Oden's done?

 

[RoyToy]

Before you go and trade Oden to any willing team with a draft pick remember if he were to come out this year he'd easily be the #1 pick over every other prospect. He'd be a senior in college right now. Averaged 16pts/10reb/3.3blk as a freshman with one hand............now put that up against what other big men are averaging in their 2nd and 3rd years in college fully healthy. Yeah.

None of these guys have anywhere near the potential as a healthy Greg Oden, which is why it'd be beyond foolish to trade him. He showed you this year what he's capable of and he's only going to get better. If he stays healthy, he's a beast. That simple.

But that's the way this board is and I'm used to it by now. If you aren't drastically overrating players you're killing them.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

No offense (really), just want to check if I remember right: were you the poster who was saying (when Oden had MF) that we needed to draft DeAndre Jordan because Oden's done?

Draft? I advocated to trade for him as insurance.

 

[Boob-No-More]

That's why you make the move on draft day.

Trading for a protected pick is like walking in the dark.

And you think if SAC had a top 3 pick on draft day they'd make this move - without knowing if Oden is recovered from his injury?

This is the kind of trade that NEVER happens. It's too high risk for either GM to even consider and gets at least one of them fired.

If Oden comes back healthy, Pritchard ends up potentially being the guy who traded 22-year old dominant center and 10 time all-star for a back-up power forward and Raef LaFrentz II.

If Oden continues to suffer injuries and never lives up to his potential, Petrie is the guy who traded a productive player and a top 3 pick for a guy who was injured at the time.

This trade is pure fan rambling. It will never happen and it will never even get talked about outside of internet forums.

BNM

 

[For Three]

I would be willing to trade Oden and Roy for John Wall and Brook Lopez in the off season. I know that's a shocking thought for some of you but the bottom line is we have plenty of guys who can play two guard. I would even do it knowing that Roy and Oden would always be the more talented players. Largely because I don't think either one of them will be on the floor consistently.

The bottom line is that I don't think the Nets would make that trade. It's fun to think about though.