Fish or cut bait.

[blazerboy30]

There is absolutely no way I make this trade.

Here is the way I look at it:

1) Keep Oden, and he has injury problems the rest of his career. Blazers get to the playoffs, without making a lot of noise. No Blazer championships.

2) Make this trade. We get a backup power forward and the chance of a good draft pick. Continually make the playoffs, but never serious contenders.

3) Keep Oden, and he finally stays healthy for several seasons. The Blazers are serious contenders for the championship every year.


I say take the risk and go for (3). We don't win a championship with (1) or (2) anyway.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Before you go and trade Oden to any willing team with a draft pick remember if he were to come out this year he'd easily be the #1 pick over every other prospect. He'd be a senior in college right now. Averaged 16pts/10reb/3.3blk as a freshman with one hand............now put that up against what other big men are averaging in their 2nd and 3rd years in college fully healthy. Yeah.

None of these guys have anywhere near the potential as a healthy Greg Oden, which is why it'd be beyond foolish to trade him. He showed you this year what he's capable of and he's only going to get better. If he stays healthy, he's a beast. That simple.

But that's the way this board is and I'm used to it by now. If you aren't drastically overrating players you're killing them.

You can certainly argue that Oden has a higher ceiling than any player in this draft. It is equally true that he has a lower floor.

Cole Aldrich in uniform is worth more than Oden in a suit and cast.

 

[BGrantFan]

An interesting hypothetical. I wonder when/if the Blazer front office starts having under-the-breath discussions about these things. I also wonder if a GM called asking about Oden's availability last week.

 

[Boob-No-More]

You can certainly argue that Oden has a higher ceiling than any player in this draft. It is equally true that he has a lower floor.

A lower floor than any player in this draft? No way. Even in spite of the injuries, Oden has produced more than some of the guys in the incoming draft class will. Some of the players who get drafted will never see one second of NBA action. How is that a lower floor than Oden?

Cole Aldrich in uniform is worth more than Oden in a suit and cast.

Yes, and:

Shavik Randolph in uniform is worth more than Oden in a suit and cast.

BNM

 

[STOMP]

Thompson isn't very intriguing to me at all, he's merely a serviceable Big. Portland has Pendergraph who is pretty similar in talents and game but both cheaper and further from his rookie deal expiring. I haven't been watching much college ball this year, but I'm also not hearing much buzz on the greatness of the next class... well actually I've been hearing/reading just the opposite.

for Greg? Dude has already shown he's a game changing Big and is all of 22. None of his injuries have been joint injuries so there should be no long term affects holding him back from the potential he's already demonstrated.

I'd be up for trading anyone on the roster for the right deal but this is scenario is pretty easy to dismiss

STOMP

 

[Boob-No-More]

It's way, way too soon to panic on a guy who was dominating a little over 2 months ago - at the age of 21 with less than one season of NBA playing experience.

Yes, the injuries have been numerous and unfortunate, but they are unrelated and he has come back from the previous injuries.

Nobody ever mentions any long term effects from his wrist injury, do they? It sure doesn't seem to effect his shooting, rebounding, or shot blocking ability.

Before breaking his knee cap he looked to be well on the way to recovering from the microfracture surgery. He was among the league leaders in PER, FG%, TRB% and BLK% - again this was as a 21-year old with less than a full season of NBA playing experience. Look at that again - among the league leaders in multiple offensive and defensive categories after coming back from microfracture surgery, as a 21-year old with limited NBA experience.

And now we want to trade him over a broken knee cap?

People around here panic WAY to easily and fail to see the big picture. Yeah, it would be great if Greg Oden had never been injured and was leading us to the NBA finals this year, but in the big picture, the guy has 10 more years to do that, and I think the chances of him accomplishing it are far greater than anybody in the 2010 NBA draft doing so.

BNM

 

[oldmangrouch]

Serious question BNM: at what point do the Blazers stop being held hostage to Oden's "potential", and get on with their lives?

You see this all the time in baseball. Top prospects break down, and despite their hypothetical potential, never make it to the show. Smart teams don't waste time worrying about it - they start looking for alternatives. Bad teams whine about their rotten luck.

Sorry, but I'm with Hollinger - if the Blazers get anything out of Oden, it's gravy. It is silly to build all their plans around him.

 

[MikeDC]

I'd need to see nude photos of Jason Thompson before officially buying in....

 

[STOMP]

Serious question BNM: at what point do the Blazers stop being held hostage to Oden's "potential", and get on with their lives?

serious question... Buck Williams = Jason Thompson?

You see this all the time in baseball. Top prospects break down, and despite their hypothetical potential, never make it to the show. Smart teams don't waste time worrying about it - they start looking for alternatives. Bad teams whine about their rotten luck

this is hoops not baseball and Greg has already demonstrated he has All Star level production in the NBA show. Name me a few of the top basketball prospects who's careers were cut short by injuries that didn't effect their longterm mobility.

STOMP

 

[Boob-No-More]

By the way, people who want to give up Greg Oden for a high draft pick need to realize that a high draft pick is no guarantee of success.

The last player picked No. 1 who has an NBA championship is Tim Duncan - chosen 14 years ago. The guys selected No. 1 over all after him (Michael Olowokandi, Elton Brand, Kenyon Martin, Kwame Brown, Yao Ming, LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Andrew Bogut, Andrea Bargnani, Greg Oden, Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin) have a total of ZERO championships. The only guys on that list I'd rather have than Oden are LeBron James and Dwight Howard (and possibly Yao Ming who is much older than Oden and has also been injured a lot).

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Serious question BNM: at what point do the Blazers stop being held hostage to Oden's "potential", and get on with their lives?

I didn't realize they were being held hostage by Oden's potential. We're the Blazers going to win a title this season if Oden had been healthy? I doubt it. So, how is he holding them back? Should we also give up on Roy. His injuries seem to be holding us back more right now than Oden's.

You see this all the time in baseball. Top prospects break down, and despite their hypothetical potential, never make it to the show. Smart teams don't waste time worrying about it - they start looking for alternatives. Bad teams whine about their rotten luck.

Examples? Basketball examples, that is. Baseball is a much different sport. Longer season, more players on the roster and on the field, specialized positions. Most high draft picks taken without any college experience, etc.

Sorry, but I'm with Hollinger - if the Blazers get anything out of Oden, it's gravy. It is silly to build all their plans around him.

I disagree. If we traded Oden right now, we'd be selling low - which is rarely a good idea.

BNM

 

[andalusian]

Serious question BNM: at what point do the Blazers stop being held hostage to Oden's "potential", and get on with their lives?

Why can't they get on with their lives while keeping him?

If Oden is what stands between the Blazers and Thompson and a questionable pick - I honestly do not know how much he is impeding them...

You see this all the time in baseball. Top prospects break down, and despite their hypothetical potential, never make it to the show. Smart teams don't waste time worrying about it - they start looking for alternatives. Bad teams whine about their rotten luck.

The Blazers drafted a Center/PF combo in the 2nd round last year despite the fact that Oden and Pryzbilla were on the roster, they traded for another big after these guys went down. I just do not think this is that big of a deal. If it was John Wall and Thompson for Oden - sure, I would make the trade - but since it is not very likely it would be Wall - Oden is still a lower risk.

Sorry, but I'm with Hollinger - if the Blazers get anything out of Oden, it's gravy. It is silly to build all their plans around him.

The Rockets had the twin towers they build around, when it became clear that Sampson would not be a building block - they rebuilt around Hakeem. The Blazers have Roy, LMA and Oden. Since it is unclear that Oden is done - it is way to early to make these claims.

 

[axs88]

Draft? I advocated to trade for him as insurance.

OK, might have been someone else. It was at the beginning of the college season, so it was about drafting him with our (anticipated) lottery pick.

 

[Minstrel]

I saw an interesting thread on another forum where a Sacto fan suggested a trade package of Jason Thompson + this year's first round pick for Greg Oden. Personally I don't think Geoff Petrie would actually offer that, but for the sake of argument let's say that was on the table, would you pull the trigger?

I say yes, not because I don't think Greg is talented, but mostly because I don't think he's a good bet as a foundational piece moving forward. Secondly, the Kings are likely to have a pretty high lotto pick this year which puts us in the sweet spot to maybe pick one of these fairly talented big men coming out of the draft.

Now for some of you, don't get all worked up and pissed off, this is just one of those things that struck me as an interesting trade-off trade, basically going for the lower risk, lower reward player moving forward versus a high reward, high risk player.

Thoughts?

No. It mitigates risk somewhat, at the expense of potential team ceiling. If Oden is healthy, the Blazers are a title contender. That almost surely won't be true with Thompson and whomever is available for the Kings pick. Yes, if Oden's health continues to flame out, Portland is again not a title contender...and making the trade is the better of the two "not a title contender" scenarios. But I don't really care which of the two "not a title contender" scenarios is better...I want the chance for a title contender. Anything less is really not that relevant to me.

To win a championship, you have to take some upside risks. There is no safe, steady route to a title, or else it would have been discovered, all teams would use it and every team would win the title every year...err, or something. There must be some risks taken that work out that elevate smart teams that succeed from smart teams that just come up short. Your trade adds a bit most certainty, but takes away the Blazers' only real championship-contention gamble.

 

[Natebishop3]

No. It mitigates risk somewhat, at the expense of potential team ceiling. If Oden is healthy, the Blazers are a title contender. That almost surely won't be true with Thompson and whomever is available for the Kings pick. Yes, if Oden's health continues to flame out, Portland is again not a title contender...and making the trade is the better of the two "not a title contender" scenarios. But I don't really care which of the two "not a title contender" scenarios is better...I want the chance for a title contender. Anything less is really not that relevant to me.

To win a championship, you have to take some upside risks. There is no safe, steady route to a title, or else it would have been discovered, all teams would use it and every team would win the title every year...err, or something. There must be some risks taken that work out that elevate smart teams that succeed from smart teams that just come up short. Your trade adds a bit most certainty, but takes away the Blazers' only real championship-contention gamble.

Our chances at a title were shot when we traded away Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw

 

[Minstrel]

Our chances at a title were shot when we traded away Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw

Our chances at a dynasty were. Portland can still eke out one title without them.

 

[oldmangrouch]

serious question... Buck Williams = Jason Thompson?

STOMP

No, but there are players available in the draft who could be that good. Thompson would just be a bonus.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

no way I trade Oden. We waited this long, I'll keep on waiting.

 

[Tortimer]

No way. I'm not sure Oden will ever be the player I thought he would but I wouldn't make this trade. Maybe a #3 pick which wouldn't really get us anything in this draft to make us a championship contender. There is still a chance Oden could stay healthy and if we trade him this will make our pick even worse. I think Sac would do this trade but not the Blazers.

 

[bbc23]

Heck, even Shaq suffered years of injuries leading up to his first NBA championship. His injuries were not as severe as Oden's, but in the three seasons when he was 23 - 25, he played in 54, 51 and 60 games. That's an average of 27 missed games a season over that three year period.

BNM

Oden has missed 82-21-61(he isn't coming back this season) along with HAVING THE INJURY CONCERNS IN HIGH SCHOOL AND COLLEGE

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Missing 164 of your first 246 games is almost comical. Wow!

 

[Boob-No-More]

Missing 164 of your first 246 games is almost comical. Wow!

Yeah, and Len Bias dying and missing his whole career was fucking hilarious, wasn't it?

BNM

 

[Wheels]

nope. I know there is risk with Oden's health. But Basically it comes down to this. Oden if healthy provides us a chance at a championship. Jason Thompson would not. So for me thats a gamble I am willing to take. I wanna WIN.. not have a team good enough for consistently making just the WCF.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Oden has missed 82-21-61(he isn't coming back this season) along with HAVING THE INJURY CONCERNS IN HIGH SCHOOL AND COLLEGE

What injury concerns did Oden have in high school? In fours years of high school and six years of AAU ball, what injuries did he have. How many games did he miss?

He had the wrist injury and elected to have surgery after his senior year of high school, after he had led his team to a third straight state title and after he'd been named HS player of the year for the second straight season.

He had the wrist surgery in June and missed Ohio State's first seven games. So, between high school AAU ball and college he missed seven games due to injury.

BNM

 

[maxiep]

What injury concerns did Oden have in high school? In fours years of high school and six years of AAU ball, what injuries did he have. How many games did he miss?

He had the wrist injury and elected to have surgery after his senior year of high school, after he had led his team to a third straight state title and after he'd been named HS player of the year for the second straight season.

He had the wrist surgery in June and missed Ohio State's first seven games. So, between high school AAU ball and college he missed seven games due to injury.

BNM

My contention has been that he's not injury prone, that it's just been bad luck. The injuries haven't been the same every time, like Walton's or Bowie's. A torn cartilage is nothing. The cure--microfracture--is something, however. He rolled an ankle just like tons of other players do. As for his latest, well, that was a bitch. That being said, he's far from done. Camby and Przybilla are both players who missed huge chunks of time when they were young. GO will be fine.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Yeah, and Len Bias dying and missing his whole career was fucking hilarious, wasn't it?

BNM

Comical as in laughing in disbelief.

 

[KingSpeed]

Serious question BNM: at what point do the Blazers stop being held hostage to Oden's "potential", and get on with their lives?

You see this all the time in baseball. Top prospects break down, and despite their hypothetical potential, never make it to the show. Smart teams don't waste time worrying about it - they start looking for alternatives.

And that's why we traded for Camby.

 

[KingSpeed]

I didn't realize they were being held hostage by Oden's potential. We're the Blazers going to win a title this season if Oden had been healthy? I doubt it. So, how is he holding them back?

Ummm he already held us back by missing the 2007-08 season. If he had been healthy from Day in 2007 and had lived up to expectations, we WOULD be playing for a title this season.

 

[KingSpeed]

Oden has missed 82-21-61(he isn't coming back this season) along with HAVING THE INJURY CONCERNS IN HIGH SCHOOL AND COLLEGE

Not to mention all the games he sat out with foul trouble. Do the 4 pts, 2 rebs, 5 fls games really count?

 

[KingSpeed]

nope. I know there is risk with Oden's health. But Basically it comes down to this. Oden if healthy provides us a chance at a championship. Jason Thompson would not. So for me thats a gamble I am willing to take. I wanna WIN.. not have a team good enough for consistently making just the WCF.

The last 50+ champions have won without Greg Oden. Why can't we?