Fish or cut bait.

[BGrantFan]

You hit on a very important point. In the next few months, one of 3 things is going to happen.

Option A). Oden agrees to a cheap extension that mitigates the risk to the team. Not likely.

Option B). Oden demands an LMA/Bargnani type extension. I know many people disagree, but I consider this suicidal for the team.

Option C). Oden doesn't sign an extension, starts down the road to free agency, and the team risks losing him for nothing.

Option A) I agree. The only way I see Oden signing a 'cheap' extension is for low years with a high base. Think Chris Paul or Deron Williams. The Blazers would be crazy to offer anything like those deals.

Option B) I don't see how Greg could demand even a Bargnani extension. I also don't think that Oden's agent will be in a hurry to sign a long-term extension with such poor leverage unless the dollars are big. Will Greg roll the dice and play next season on his rookie deal? Will he then sign a Qualifying Offer and risk 2 years of injury without a safety net?

Option C) Worst case, Oden is unsigned this summer, plays out 2010-11, then signs a QO for one more year. I just don't see that happening, and if his agent suggests it, he should seek new counsel.

Basically, Oden will be a Blazer if the Blazers want him, at least for the next 6 years. If the Blazers don't want him, then it's time to start considering how to maximize his trade value, and right now, he has a deflated trade value.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Don't forget the looming lockout.

If Oden goes into restricted free agency the following summer the league is likely to be shut down, and when they come back there is already pretty substantial talk that player contracts are going to be both shorter and cheaper. At this point you either lock him into a fairly cheap, somewhat long term deal (4 years 32-36 million?) or you let him slide into restricted free agency and let the market decide how much they want to offer him. Which the team would probably match, barring a "toxic offer" designed to force the Blazers hand (which would be a helluva game of chicken for an opposing GM to engage in).

It's going to be a very interesting game of cat and mouse between Greg, his agent and the team this summer as I'm sure each side is going to be carefully weighing costs and benefits (Would Greg really want to forgo an extension on the hope he might stay healthy for a full season? Would KP really take the chance of being locked into an albatross if things continue to go South? Does Greg even want to stay here after all his trials and tribulations?) My money is on the long term security of a cheaper extension, which guarantees Greg some financial security, but doesn't hamstring the organization in the event of more setbacks.

 

[maxiep]

Do you really? I'd be interested in hearing your reasons for such optimism.

I'm optimistic firstly because it's sports. And if you don't believe things will always be better in the future, then what's the point of following something so inconsequential? So, unless there's real evidence, I'm always going to accentuate the positive.

I'm optimistic secondly--and primarily--because none of these injuries are repeating. A wrist, a knee cartilage, a rolled ankle, a knee bruise and a broken patella. The rolled ankle and knee bruise aren't even significant injuries; they can happen to anyone.

Walton's and Bowie's injuries were the same ones over and over and over and over. Their foot, ankle and leg bones were made of cotton candy. When I look at the Blazers and future injury concerns, Brandon has a worse injury history than Greg in terms of risk. He's had multiple ligament injuries. THAT's scary.

 

[Minstrel]

My money is on the long term security of a cheaper extension, which guarantees Greg some financial security, but doesn't hamstring the organization in the event of more setbacks.

That's how I'd bet, too. Something like a 4 year deal for $7-8 million per year. Plenty enough money to set him up as a rich man for life, even if he suffers a career-ending injury in his very next game, but nothing so onerous that the team is screwed if that happens.

It still sets Oden up for a huge contract entering his prime if he does stay healthy and dominates (the "worst case" scenario of that contract for Oden, in terms of money for service rendered...though easily the best case for him overall).

 

[rocketeer]

You know, I keep asking variations of the same question - and I can't get a straight answer. When? When do people admit it is time to pull the plug? If Oden has a Joel P type career, is that enough for you? That scenario is at least as likely as him suddenly becoming a reliable building block.

the problem is that oden having a joel type career is not nearly as likely as oden being a legitimate building block. if you can't see that oden is far more talented than joel could ever hope to be, then obviously you're going to have a hard time understanding.

 

[STOMP]

You know, I'm supposed to be the cranky one...right?

It is sort of annoying to have answered the same question many times only to have the poster complain that no one will answer the question... you retain your calling card.

Not to nitpick, but I actually said I thought Batum could make a big jump this season. I want to believe in Bayless as well - but the numbers disguise the fact that he is alarmingly erratic. Right now, he is in the Webster/Outlaw "who the heck knows what you will get any given game" category. On Rudy, we will just have to agree to disagree.

you certainly did express that you thought Batum might improve and he has... by PER he's up 23% over last year. But of course both Greg 29% and Bayless 85% have improved even more. Bayless being a bit up and down this season is light years removed from being the deer in the headlights rook he was last season. Dude leapfrogged his mentor and earned regular minutes in the rotation. Getting back the outside stroke he had going at the beginning of the season is the key to him being a true force offensively. Again, Rudy has a legit out up to this point with the back issues as far as judging those past discussions, but it should be fair to judge him by the end of the season if he doesn't suffer some sort of a setback.

my point in those discussions was to answer your complaints that they didn't add enough outside talent (besides Miller & the 2nd rounders) so we shouldn't expect improvement over last year. I contended that the 4 Sophs should provide significant internal
improvement... you said we'll see about that. Of course injuries have changed the Blazer landscape significantly so we're not comparing apples to apples, but I do think that the 2nd year guys are doing what I predicted.

STOMP