Game Thread GAME# 45: WARRIORS @ BLAZERS - JANUARY 20, 2020 - MONDAY, 7:00 PM, TNT

[oldmangrouch]

Tremt was the most NBA ready of the 3.

True.

OTOH, Simons claimed it was better for his development to avoid playing in college. Would you agree that was a mistake?

Confession: originally, I didn't want to draft Simons. I considered his desire to avoid the work and competition of college ball to be a bad sign. After the Blazers ignored my sage advice (tongue firmly in cheek) and drafted him anyway, I tried really hard to be upbeat about the kid. Honestly, I wanted him to succeed for the sake of the team. Now, my mental pendulum is swinging back the other way. I am once again wondering if he is just another "tools goof" who will never harness his talent.

 

[BonesJones]

Simons is only 11 months younger than Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, and 10 months younger than Kevin Heuter & PJ Washington, and is older than Jaren Jackson and Tyler Herro. Yes, he was drafted later in the order, but plenty of guys around his age are performing better

And? Hes a project. Those guys were more NBA ready. Just because some guys his age are playing well doesnt mean we should have unrealistic opinions of our 19 and 20 year old projects.

How good was Dame when he was 20? Hm?

 

[BonesJones]

True.

OTOH, Simons claimed it was better for his development to avoid playing in college. Would you agree that was a mistake?

Confession: originally, I didn't want to draft Simons. I considered his desire to avoid the work and competition of college ball to be a bad sign. After the Blazers ignored my sage advice (tongue firmly in cheek) and drafted him anyway, I tried really hard to be upbeat about the kid. Honestly, I wanted him to succeed for the sake of the team. Now, my mental pendulum is swinging back the other way. I am once again wondering if he is just another "tools goof" who will never harness his talent.

He's fine... he would be a rookie right now. If he made more shots and played in a better structured offense that ran more, he'd look awesome.

 

[wizenheimer]

And? Hes a project. Those guys were more NBA ready. Just because some guys his age are playing well doesnt mean we should have unrealistic opinions of our 19 and 20 year old projects.

but you're using his age as a rebuttal to those wondering about his actual talent.

now, you're moving the goal posts by saying it's his age AND he's also a project. Age isn't holding back those other guys like it's apparently holding back Simons...it's his level of development you're saying. But why is his development lagging?

How good was Dame when he was 20?

better than Simons

look, I'm not down on Simons. He shows enough to suggest he'll develop into a decent player, at the minimum. The hype Olshey was pumping out all summer was ridiculous though.

 

[Neil O. Shyster]

but you're using his age as a rebuttal to those wondering about his actual talent.

now, you're moving the goal posts by saying it's his age AND he's also a project. Age isn't holding back those other guys like it's apparently holding back Simons...it's his level of development you're saying. But why is his development lagging?



better than Simons

look, I'm not down on Simons. He shows enough to suggest he'll develop into a decent player, at the minimum. The hype Olshey was pumping out all summer was ridiculous though.

Neil overhypes every move he makes and then gets mad at the fans for being upset when they don’t pan out.

 

[CupWizier]

Simple - this was a deal made for non-basketball reasons. I understand the financial motive - but as a fan, why should I care? The only reason I went with a "D" rather than an "F" is the remote chance Ariza still has enough in the tank to be an up-grade on Baze.

Non basketball related deal? Well, I would say that Ariza is likely an upgrade over what Bazemore was providing and he gives us more versatile defense with being able to guard 3 or 4 positions with his size and could be security if Hood isn't ready to play by the start of next season. He's on the tail end of his career, but he's a very smart player with high basketball iq and doesn't rely on huge athleticism so he should be fine for another year after this if we choose to keep him. Gabriel is also a reasonable prospect that might turn into a serviceable player. Also, the financial savings might also open the door to do other deals that ordinarily may not be done due to higher tax implications. I guess I would hate to have you as a teacher grading me.

Curious, what grade would you give the Kings?

 

[Darkwebs]

 

[James lamphear]

Simons is only 11 months younger than Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, and 10 months younger than Kevin Heuter & PJ Washington, and is older than Jaren Jackson and Tyler Herro. Yes, he was drafted later in the order, but plenty of guys around his age are performing better

But he the only didn't play college ball so going to college playing at least one year at major college seems makes a difference.

 

[James lamphear]

We need to wait until the deadline is over before we get to excited about this trade. To me I thought it be something small but with different players. Maybe Whiteside is worry about his situation when seen Bazemore got traded. Maybe that he didn't play up to par because he also got expiring contract. I predicting that Whiteside will still be here after trading deadline due that Nurk won't be back after the all star game. I am not saying there won't be one but it won't be Whiteside.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Non basketball related deal? Well, I would say that Ariza is likely an upgrade over what Bazemore was providing and he gives us more versatile defense with being able to guard 3 or 4 positions with his size and could be security if Hood isn't ready to play by the start of next season. He's on the tail end of his career, but he's a very smart player with high basketball iq and doesn't rely on huge athleticism so he should be fine for another year after this if we choose to keep him. Gabriel is also a reasonable prospect that might turn into a serviceable player. Also, the financial savings might also open the door to do other deals that ordinarily may not be done due to higher tax implications. I guess I would hate to have you as a teacher grading me.

Curious, what grade would you give the Kings?

Interesting question.

I don't really follow what is going on in Sac-Town, but there was a comment (CBS Sports on-line?) that the Kings were phasing Ariza out due to age. If that is correct, it was mostly about finances for them - but they DID get 2 picks out of the deal without giving up anything they wanted. Unlike some posters here, I am of the opinion that even 2nd round picks have some modicum of value. All of which is a long-winded way of saying I'll give them a "C-". (in the literal sense of "low end of average.")

Fans who believe Ariza still has something left and that future draft picks have minimal value will find these grades backwards.

Just as an aside, the financial aspects of the deal are rather a toss-up. Blazers swapped some immediate financial relief for greater relief down the road. Win-win I guess.

 

[DDolla]

Garbage 1 vs Garbage 2... should be a good one

 

[TBpup]

You have to dress 8 players in the NBA

Yes. They have to 'dress' 8, but they don't have to play. It's like the Sac game at the end of last year that Stotts tried to lose by only playing 6 guys. There were 2 players dressed on the bench who never entered the game.

 

[kjironman1]

Garbage 1 vs Garbage 2... should be a good one

So you are saying they are better at being garbage also?

 

[wizenheimer]

Just as an aside, the financial aspects of the deal are rather a toss-up. Blazers swapped some immediate financial relief for greater relief down the road. Win-win I guess.

when you calculate everything, the Kings got two second picks for close to free. They'll pay a couple million more this year but not have to pay Ariza's 1.8M guarantee next year

Portland didn't get any down-the-road relief with this deal. They'll pay a minimum of 1.8M more next season, and it could be 11M more than that if they guarantee Ariza's full salary. They'd also add an additional 1.5-1.9M if they bring Gabriel back, although that is about what they'd pay a vet minimum salary

 

[kjironman1]

when you calculate everything, the Kings got two second picks for close to free. They'll pay a couple million more this year but not have to pay Ariza's 1.8M guarantee next year

Portland didn't get any down-the-road relief with this deal. They'll pay a minimum of 1.8M more next season, and it could be 11M more than that if they guarantee Ariza's full salary. They'd also add an additional 1.5-1.9M if they bring Gabriel back, although that is about what they'd pay a vet minimum salary

No

 

[wizenheimer]

No

"no" what?

 

[hoopsjock]

Yes. They have to 'dress' 8, but they don't have to play. It's like the Sac game at the end of last year that Stotts tried to lose by only playing 6 guys. There were 2 players dressed on the bench who never entered the game.

Yeah obviously, I believe a team got fined either earlier this year or maybe last year for kind of fudging the injury report like that to have 8 players.

With all the money saved in the trade I wonder if they'd at least sign someone to a 10-day tomorrow.

 

[TBpup]

Yeah obviously, I believe a team got fined either earlier this year or maybe last year for kind of fudging the injury report like that to have 8 players.

With all the money saved in the trade I wonder if they'd at least sign someone to a 10-day tomorrow.

They will at least have Brown dressed. But Stotts may still go with a defensive stalwart like Carmelo at center like when he was playing Tolliver over Skal.

 

[Bruno_Sabino]

Need to win this one. Lets go Blazers!

 

[SIeepwalker]

Need to win this one. Lets go Blazers!

Some might argue we need to lose this one

 

[DDolla]

WOW another National TV game... Let’s Go Blazers!

 

[illmatic99]

when you calculate everything, the Kings got two second picks for close to free. They'll pay a couple million more this year but not have to pay Ariza's 1.8M guarantee next year

Portland didn't get any down-the-road relief with this deal. They'll pay a minimum of 1.8M more next season, and it could be 11M more than that if they guarantee Ariza's full salary. They'd also add an additional 1.5-1.9M if they bring Gabriel back, although that is about what they'd pay a vet minimum salary

The more I think about this, the more I feel like Neil legitimately targeted Ariza.

ugh

 

[illmatic99]

Simons is only 11 months younger than Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, and 10 months younger than Kevin Heuter & PJ Washington, and is older than Jaren Jackson and Tyler Herro. Yes, he was drafted later in the order, but plenty of guys around his age are performing better

He also never even played college ball. I know patience is hard to come by, but it is unfortunately a necessity at the moment with Simons.

 

[wizenheimer]

The more I think about this, the more I feel like Neil legitimately targeted Ariza.

ugh

well, some people here have been saying it's critical that the Blazers convert their expiring contracts into 2 year deals. I don't agree, but the trade gets Portland part way there. Unfortunately. we see that Ariza had no positive value, and I can't imagine that changing next season....assuming the Blazers even guarantee his contract. So in order for Portland to make any trade for a significant upgrade next season, they will have to add significant assets to Ariza's 'filler' salary.

Ariza fits what I was picturing as the level of salary Portland should target in the kick-the-can-down-the-road realm (much better to get off that road IMO and leave that 2016 can there)...in the 8-13M range. That would put Portland around 111M in payroll; 115M counting their 1st round pick and Gabriel. That would leave them room to use the full-MLE (around 10M IIRC) and a couple of minimum contracts and still probably be under the tax line (although they'd be hard-capped)

He also never even played college ball. I know patience is hard to come by, but it is unfortunately a necessity at the moment with Simons.

Simons 2nd year, no college, vs Martell Webster, 1st year, direct from high school:

PER: Simons 9.4....Webster 11.6
TS%: Simons .505....Webster .533
eFG%: Simons .477....Webster .493
FT Rate: Simons .164....Webster .204
winshares/48: Simons .012....Webster .039
BPM: Simons -4.5....Webster -3.2

Martell spent most of his career coming off the bench and never really made it to the level of a solid starter. And he was better at defense than Simons

Portland had 5 years of "patience" with Martell and then traded him for Ryan Gomes and Luke Babbitt (David Kahn loved him some Blazer SF's).

 

[Scalma]

I don’t see much downside with the trade. Ariza has been a solid 3&D guy who plays and fits better than Bazemore, and is under control for next season. If he were a free agent, I’d be happy if Portland signed him. I’m also intrigued by Gabriel and think/hope he’ll prove to be worth the picks, picks I don’t really care about btw. I also hated Bazemore and Tolliver.

 

[wizenheimer]

I’m also intrigued by Gabriel and think/hope he’ll prove to be worth the picks, picks I don’t really care about btw. I also hated Bazemore and Tolliver.

obviously, Sacramento didn't think so...and they are a model franchise

2 SAC Marvin Bagley
3 ATL Luka Dončić
4 MEM Jaren Jackson
5 DAL Trae Young

 

[Scalma]

obviously, Sacramento didn't think so...and they are a model franchise

I’m fine with having the opposite opinions of the kings.

 

[SIeepwalker]

obviously, Sacramento didn't think so...and they are a model franchise

2 SAC Marvin Bagley
3 ATL Luka Dončić
4 MEM Jaren Jackson
5 DAL Trae Young

I’m fine with having the opposite opinions of the kings.

SAC gifted us Skal for nothing (literally nothing since they just threw Biggie back in that trade) so yeah, I guess I find taking on young players the Kings don't want

 

[CupWizier]

well, some people here have been saying it's critical that the Blazers convert their expiring contracts into 2 year deals. I don't agree, but the trade gets Portland part way there. Unfortunately. we see that Ariza had no positive value, and I can't imagine that changing next season....assuming the Blazers even guarantee his contract. So in order for Portland to make any trade for a significant upgrade next season, they will have to add significant assets to Ariza's 'filler' salary.

Ariza fits what I was picturing as the level of salary Portland should target in the kick-the-can-down-the-road realm (much better to get off that road IMO and leave that 2016 can there)...in the 8-13M range. That would put Portland around 111M in payroll; 115M counting their 1st round pick and Gabriel. That would leave them room to use the full-MLE (around 10M IIRC) and a couple of minimum contracts and still probably be under the tax line (although they'd be hard-capped)



Simons 2nd year, no college, vs Martell Webster, 1st year, direct from high school:

PER: Simons 9.4....Webster 11.6
TS%: Simons .505....Webster .533
eFG%: Simons .477....Webster .493
FT Rate: Simons .164....Webster .204
winshares/48: Simons .012....Webster .039
BPM: Simons -4.5....Webster -3.2

Martell spent most of his career coming off the bench and never really made it to the level of a solid starter. And he was better at defense than Simons

Portland had 5 years of "patience" with Martell and then traded him for Ryan Gomes and Luke Babbitt (David Kahn loved him some Blazer SF's).

Problem with your example is you are assuming all players have the same trajectory. An example that debunks that is Pascal Siakam as his numbers his first year were pretty rudimentary as were his second year numbers. He didn't take off till his 3rd year and then has exploded his 4th year. In other words 2 players can come into the league at the same time, have similar numbers the first year and even the second year but player A can make a significant leap and eventually become an all star while player B maintains the same trajectory through his career.

 

[DDolla]

Can’t wait for Chuck to say.... “what the hell are the Blazers doing?” Trading for Ariza... really?