Game Thread GAME# 47: BLAZERS @ PISTONS - MARCH 31, 2021 - WEDNESDAY, 4:00, NBCSNW

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Who should start at SF?

  • Total voters
    48
  • Poll closed .
bobf said:
One issue here is that CJ's advanced stats have seen a drastic improvement this year and it's not clear how much of that is real. If I recall correctly, before coming back from injury, CJ's TS% was at 0.620 and BPM around +6.0. Now he's down to 0.576 and +3.9. Still fantastic numbers but where will they settle? CJ's average for the past 3 years are 0.543 and +0.9. The comparison depends largely on how much of CJ's current year bump will sustain. .
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careful....there are a couple of posters here who might go off on you for even suggesting there were questions about how sustainable CJ's early season numbers were. But those numbers were so far above his norms, it was hard not to wonder

and, IIRC, his BPM 10 games in was over 7.0. At one time, he ranked 2nd in the league in PER (Kingspeed told us so many times); I can't remember what the actual mark was....around 30.0...? He's now 23rd. 12 games in, he was above Dame in PER, TS%, Assist%, Winshares/48, and BPM. Dame leads in all now, by sizable margins. This isn't so much due to Dame improving as it is to CJ regressing. Although, Dame has improved, but my theory is a big reason for that was due to how much he was deferring to CJ's hot start. The best Dame is an aggressive Dame

by the way, his TS% was around .623 in that 12.5 game sample. In the 8 games since he's come back, his TS% is .500. I would expect he'll do better than that the rest of the way
 
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wizenheimer said:
careful....there are a couple of posters here who might go off on you for even suggesting there were questions about how sustainable CJ's early season numbers were. But those numbers were so far above his norms, it was hard not to wonder

and, IIRC, his BPM 10 games in was over 7.0. At one time, he ranked 2nd in the league in PER (Kingspeed told us so many times); I can't remember what the actual mark was....around 30.0...? He's now 23rd. 12 games in, he was above Dame in PER, TS%, Assist%, Winshares/48, and BPM. Dame leads in all now, by sizable margins. This isn't so much due to Dame improving as it is to CJ regressing. Although, Dame has improved, but my theory is a big reason for that was due to how much he was deferring to CJ's hot start. The best Dame is an aggressive Dame
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What does "for that" refer to? CJ's big bump in numbers? Dames slow start? Something else?
 
bobf said:
What does "for that" refer to? CJ's big bump in numbers? Dames slow start? Something else?
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I said what I thought it was....that Dame was deferring too much to CJ in the first dozen games. IIRC, CJ was averaging 4 more FGA's a game than Dame at that time
 
wizenheimer said:
I said what I thought it was....that Dame was deferring too much to CJ in the first dozen games. IIRC, CJ was averaging 4 more FGA's a game than Dame at that time
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I think this is a two edged sword here. Dame defers yes but he also is taking certain plays off doing it. Maybe not always a bad thing?
The good thing about all this is he can also do it with Powell and that would be a huge plus.
It was nice seeing another player demand attention in the Raptors game. Seemed like everyone benefitted from it.
When this team gets a good shooting night it's gonna be over fast.
 
James lamphear said:
Once he had CJ Simons Jones Melo Kanter that defense disaster when you got 1 defense minded player out there. Once he had Dame with those guys I believe the 1st quarter too and that's when they went on big run.
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Even the GM has said he wants two of his four plus defenders on the court at all times. Is Stotts hoping for retirement?
 
UKRAINEFAN said:
Even the GM has said he wants two of his four plus defenders on the court at all times. Is Stotts hoping for retirement?
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I think Stotts days are numbered in Portland due people above Olshey is not happy about how bad our defense is not only this year but the past. This want I think going to happen the ownership will be the ones to tell Olshey to fire Stotts at the end of the year that's my thoughts that what going happen.
 
I think it's important to note that if you're unequivocally calling for Dame to sit, if he and the team are to be trusted this is a soft tissue bruise that is hampering him. That could be healed up in a couple of days. If it is healed up and his knee feels good then this is a great team for Dame to get right against. If Dame's knee feels like it looks like it was feeling against the Raptors, he should definitely sit but if he's good to go then let's get him back on track.
 
blazerkor said:
I think it's important to note that if you're unequivocally calling for Dame to sit, if he and the team are to be trusted this is a soft tissue bruise that is hampering him. That could be healed up in a couple of days. If it is healed up and his knee feels good then this is a great team for Dame to get right against. If Dame's knee feels like it looks like it was feeling against the Raptors, he should definitely sit but if he's good to go then let's get him back on track.
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I thought someone also mentioned that he hurt his hand a few games back. Not sure about that though. Either way, I'd like for the dude to rest against these shit teams.
 
wizenheimer said:
I said what I thought it was....that Dame was deferring too much to CJ in the first dozen games. IIRC, CJ was averaging 4 more FGA's a game than Dame at that time
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Got it.

I just ran CJ's pre and post injury scoring efficiency. My number is very similar to TS% but with some extra stuff like drawing fouls and continuation points.
CJ Pre-Injury 1.30 (13 games, smallish sample)
CJ Post-Injury 1.10 (8 games, small sample)

Some others:
Powell 1.32 (2019-20, 2020-21)
Dame 1.32 (2019-20, 2020-21)
Curry 1.31 (2019-20, 2020-21) for reference
Ant 1.21 (2020-21)
Trent 1.15 (2020-21) much lower than prior year.
CJ 1.14 (2019-20, 2020-21)
Melo 1.14 (2020-21 only)
Hood 0.95 (2020-21 only) yikes
 
bobf said:
Got it.

I just ran CJ's pre and post injury scoring efficiency. My number is very similar to TS% but with some extra stuff like drawing fouls and continuation points.
CJ Pre-Injury 1.30 (13 games, smallish sample)
CJ Post-Injury 1.10 (8 games, small sample)

Some others:
Powell 1.32 (2019-20, 2020-21)
Dame 1.32 (2019-20, 2020-21)
Curry 1.31 (2019-20, 2020-21) for reference
Ant 1.21 (2020-21)
Trent 1.15 (2020-21) much lower than prior year.
CJ 1.14 (2019-20, 2020-21)
Melo 1.14 (2020-21 only)
Hood 0.95 (2020-21 only) yikes
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is that points/possession or points/FGA?
 
wizenheimer said:
is that points/possession or points/FGA?
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It's points per possession in which the given player shot or shot free throws, excluding points from technical free throws. So it's very much like TS% but it does not guess at how many possessions were used. TS% calculates possessions as FGA + 0.44 x FTA. This is actual possessions. It also tries to account for the value of drawing a foul above and beyond any FT's. It also credits a player with continuation points after his shot - like for example Allen Iverson always appeared to have low efficiency but that never accounted for the dunks he created for team mates when he drove and draw multiple defenders.

I can also break it down by shot distance. Here is Powell for 2019-20 and 2020-21.

Powell.PNG

Shots = PPP from the shot alone.
And1 = PPP for hitting an And1 FT after a made shot.
FTs = PPP from hitting 2 or 3 FT's after a shot that was not made.
Cont = PPP continuation points after the shot by any player.
Bonus = PPP bonus for drawing fouls towards the bonus.
PPP = sum of above.
%POSS = percentage of possessions for that type of shot.
Non-shooting = points from FT's where the player drew a foul but not while shooting e.g. in the penalty.
 
Jeremy Grant and Mason Plumlee seem to always be problems for the Blazers. There are times i wish the Blazers still had a guy with a motor like Plumlee.
 
I saw in the Oregonian that Blazers will practice today but not "live". Is this some kind of Covid thing? I really don't see the advantage or how it prevents Covid.
 
UKRAINEFAN said:
I saw in the Oregonian that Blazers will practice today but not "live". Is this some kind of Covid thing? I really don't see the advantage or how it prevents Covid.
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Open Non-contact practice drills. These are all about position and stunts with no chance for another bump or bruise. Any Blazer not in shape will have to play their way into shape. Any Blazer nursing a nagging injury will not aggravate it any further.
I should add that word "Scheme" in there to sound like i know what I'm talking about.
 
kjironman1 said:
Open Non-contact practice drills. These are all about position and stunts with no chance for another bump or bruise. Any Blazer not in shape will have to play their way into shape. Any Blazer nursing a nagging injury will not aggravate it any further.
I should add that word "Scheme" in there to sound like i know what I'm talking about.
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So, you are saying the non-contact is to avoid bruising, not to avoid Covid? I haven't heard anything about this "scheme" to avoid injury.
 
UKRAINEFAN said:
So, you are saying the non-contact is to avoid bruising, not to avoid Covid? I haven't heard anything about this "scheme" to avoid injury.
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I have absolutely no idea at all bro. Honestly i was just joking. Guess i needed green font on that.
 
kjironman1 said:
They seem to win games in them. Wear em out i say.
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I think they're so embarrassed, they come out angry. I went to a high school where our colors were baby blue and vomit gold. We HATED those colors, so we took it out on the opposition.
 
kjironman1 said:
Jeremy Grant and Mason Plumlee seem to always be problems for the Blazers. There are times i wish the Blazers still had a guy with a motor like Plumlee.
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Covington and Kanter don’t have a good enough motor for you?
 
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