Game Thread GAME# 63: WIZARDS @ BLAZERS - MARCH 4, 2020 - WEDNESDAY, 7:00, NBCSNW

[JDC]

That link shows no shot attempts (maybe because it says preseason).

Link should be working now.

 

[Tince]

Perfect!

Last year with those same parameters (more than 21 assists), the Blazers were 40-13!!! That's almost a 62 win pace.

Last year in games with 21 assists or less they were 13-16. That's on pace for just under 37 wins. Guess what the Blazers are on pace for to win this year? That's right, just under 37 wins. On the season the Blazers are averaging less than 21 assists per game.

Look at that, there IS actually a correlation no matter how hard you try to disprove it. You also continually ignore other parts of ball movement besides just assists.

What parts am I ignoring?

I've provided data sets that consist of a minimum of 2400 games provided by a third party where they concluded based of the correlation coeffient that there was no a strong relationship between wins and assists. This wasn't my opinion, this wasn't a one team data set, this was league wide.

I MUCH prefer watching basketball where the ball is being moved around freely, so this isn't about what I like.

If you can provide a league wide data set and the math to back up that there is a strong correlation between assists and winning, I'm 100% open to it.

 

[Tince]

I don't know... Maybe Defense, Rebounding, shooting %, etc.

There are LOTS of factors that go into winning. Quality ball movement is only 1 piece of the equation.

Assists are also only a measure of quality ball movement. It's far from perfect, but it's the only one we have to use. In short, not all assists are created equal.

This, this, this.

I believe Phoenix leads the league in assists per game. I don't think Vegas has them as favorites to win the NBA Championship. In fact, Vegas all the bottom 3 teams in assist ahead of Phoenix, including the team with the 2nd fewest assists as the 4th most likely team to win it all.

 

[CupWizier]

I don't know... Maybe Defense, Rebounding, shooting %, etc.

There are LOTS of factors that go into winning. Quality ball movement is only 1 piece of the equation.

Assists are also only a measure of quality ball movement. It's far from perfect, but it's the only one we have to use. In short, not all assists are created equal.

Assists are really a measure of the receiving player being able to make a shot. In all my years I have seen some fantastic passes only for the shooter to brick it and also a very vanilla pass that the shooter makes which leads to an assist.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Assists are really a measure of the receiving player being able to make a shot. In all my years I have seen some fantastic passes only for the shooter to brick it and also a very vanilla pass that the shooter makes which leads to an assist.

Best pass Ive ever thrown in my life, dude bricked the layup... Apparently it really bothered me because it was like 13 years ago and I still cant believe it...

 

[hoopsjock]

What parts am I ignoring?

I've provided data sets that consist of a minimum of 2400 games provided by a third party where they concluded based of the correlation coeffient that there was no a strong relationship between wins and assists. This wasn't my opinion, this wasn't a one team data set, this was league wide.

I MUCH prefer watching basketball where the ball is being moved around freely, so this isn't about what I like.

If you can provide a league wide data set and the math to back up that there is a strong correlation between assists and winning, I'm 100% open to it.

I provided data with how that applies to the Blazers and it proves that the Blazers do play better over the last two seasons with more assists. This is not really disputable. Other teams might perform differently with level assists but there is a direct correlation between the Blazers having more than 21 assists in a game and winning at a high percentage.

The fact that you continue to ask for data sets shows what you are failing to account for. There isn't really a stat for if you touch the ball more on offense you play better defense or are more likely to hit a shot if you touched the ball the last 3 possessions versus taking a shot when you haven't touched the ball in like 4 minutes or whatever. You said you've coached for 13 years. You should be able to see that the more involved a player is in a system the more engaged and focused they usually are. If every time you come down the court you're thinking "great CJ has the ball, no way am I getting passed to" it's different than "wow, I get a chance with the ball almost every time down the court."

 

[hoopsjock]

Best pass Ive ever thrown in my life, dude bricked the layup... Apparently it really bothered me because it was like 13 years ago and I still cant believe it...

Yeah, @BonesJones is constantly bringing up his pass to @HailBlazers and how he wasn't paying attention and almost fumbled it away.

There are however stats that are kept for potential assists versus actual assists and even number of passes per game and all that stuff so there are ways to factor out players that miss assist opportunities, just not in your mind with that play!

 

[Tince]

Here is a current chart plotting assists and wins.

 

[Tince]

I provided data with how that applies to the Blazers and it proves that the Blazers do play better over the last two seasons with more assists. This is not really disputable. Other teams might perform differently with level assists but there is a direct correlation between the Blazers having more than 21 assists in a game and winning at a high percentage.

The fact that you continue to ask for data sets shows what you are failing to account for. There isn't really a stat for if you touch the ball more on offense you play better defense or are more likely to hit a shot if you touched the ball the last 3 possessions versus taking a shot when you haven't touched the ball in like 4 minutes or whatever. You said you've coached for 13 years. You should be able to see that the more involved a player is in a system the more engaged and focused they usually are. If every time you come down the court you're thinking "great CJ has the ball, no way am I getting passed to" it's different than "wow, I get a chance with the ball almost every time down the court."

I don't believe I ever said anything about ball movement not correlating to wins because I haven't seen data on that. I said assists and wins do not have a strong correlation. I did not come up with some random number of assists and then create a narrative based off that, I took all the data from all the teams, and let the coefficient determine if it had a strong correlation.

 

[Hoopguru]

In the last thirty or more years ,there hasn’t been a player who’s lead the league in assist who’s won Cship, same year.

 

[Tince]

Here's a look at Offensive Rating vs Wins. Here you can see a correlation.

 

[HailBlazers]

Yeah, @BonesJones is constantly bringing up his pass to @HailBlazers and how he wasn't paying attention and almost fumbled it away.

There are however stats that are kept for potential assists versus actual assists and even number of passes per game and all that stuff so there are ways to factor out players that miss assist opportunities, just not in your mind with that play!

Oh come on! How was I supposed to know that @BonesJones was actually going to pass for once?

 

[hoopsjock]

I don't believe I ever said anything about ball movement not correlating to wins because I haven't seen data on that. I said assists and wins do not have a strong correlation. I did not come up with some random number of assists and then create a narrative based off that, I took all the data from all the teams, and let the coefficient determine if it had a strong correlation.

Again, I am strictly talking about an individual team. Every team is comprised of different players with different strengths and thus has to be looked at accordingly.

It was not a "random" number I picked out of a hat, it was a stat shown on the broadcast last night that is pretty close to their seasonal average.

I have never said that being among the leaders in assists per game leads to winning but in the Blazers case they sure win a lot more games when they don't have terrible assist numbers.

 

[hoopsjock]

Here's a look at Offensive Rating vs Wins. Here you can see a correlation.

View attachment 30105

Next do a graph that shows scoring more points than the other team vs wins!!! That will prove about as much as you're doing.

 

[BonesJones]

Oh come on! How was I supposed to know that @BonesJones was actually going to pass for once?

Why would I pass to someone who isnt ready for a pass? Or out to someone who airballs from 15 feet? Expecting good answers to these questions.

 

[PDXFonz]

Yo I coulda sworn the final score was 104-124

Was there a score keeping error?

 

[BonesJones]

Yeah, @BonesJones is constantly bringing up his pass to @HailBlazers and how he wasn't paying attention and almost fumbled it away.

There are however stats that are kept for potential assists versus actual assists and even number of passes per game and all that stuff so there are ways to factor out players that miss assist opportunities, just not in your mind with that play!

That man gave me so much shit for my passing for no reason, then he almost drops a dime put of bounds...

People in my league would laugh at yall making fun of my passing because all theyve seen from me is dimes.

 

[Tince]

Next do a graph that shows scoring more points than the other team vs wins!!! That will prove about as much as you're doing.

So graphs with large data sets don't prove much, but the much smaller sample size you are using proves a lot?

 

[BonesJones]

So graphs with large data sets don't prove much, but the much smaller sample size you are using proves a lot?

You're saying that data results from 30 different teams is more relevent to the Portland Trail blazers than data based only on the Portland Trail Blazers?

 

[Tince]

Again, I am strictly talking about an individual team. Every team is comprised of different players with different strengths and thus has to be looked at accordingly.

It was not a "random" number I picked out of a hat, it was a stat shown on the broadcast last night that is pretty close to their seasonal average.

I have never said that being among the leaders in assists per game leads to winning but in the Blazers case they sure win a lot more games when they don't have terrible assist numbers.

That would be interesting to look at. Does "ball movement", assists, or something along those lines matter to one team, but not others. I'd be curious on the causation of it, but I suppose it's possible.

 

[BonesJones]

I'm so sick of the "ball movement doesnt matter" narrative.

 

[BonesJones]

That would be interesting to look at. Does "ball movement", assists, or something along those lines matter to one team, but not others. I'd be curious on the causation of it, but I suppose it's possible.

Some teams move the ball well and get to the line more than the average team because of the driving lanes it opens up that they attack...

In that scenario, theres no assist registered even though ball movement is helping the offense get a more efficient result (two free throws). Thatd help create a lack of correlation between offensive rating and assists, and is just one of many examples why assists cant be used to gauge ball movement, and why you cant look at the data sets your looking at as a legitimate gauge of what is helpful for NBA teams.

 

[Tince]

You're saying that data results from 30 different teams is more relevent to the Portland Trail blazers than data based only on the Portland Trail Blazers?

It would be very rare for a measurable to have meaning to one team and not 29 other teams. I guess in general, I would say yes it would make more sense to look at league wide data to see if it is a measure that holds any value. Specifically, regarding assists, I'm not sure why they wouldn't have had a strong correlation league wide for many years, but would have a strong correlation to one team.

There are real flaws with using assists as a measure of "quality".

 

[BonesJones]

It would be very rare for a measurable to have meaning to one team and not 29 other teams. I guess in general, I would say yes it would make more sense to look at league wide data to see if it is a measure that holds any value. Specifically, regarding assists, I'm not sure why they wouldn't have had a strong correlation league wide for many years, but would have a strong correlation to one team.

There are real flaws with using assists as a measure of "quality".

How? All teams are different, so data derived from one team isnt as relevant to any of the other 29 teams, and averaging doesnt make it more relevant. And thats assuming it isnt flawed.

 

[Tince]

Some teams move the ball well and get to the line more than the average team because of the driving lanes it opens up that they attack...

In that scenario, theres no assist registered even though ball movement is helping the offense get a more efficient result (two free throws). Thatd help create a lack of correlation between offensive rating and assists, and is just one of many examples why assists cant be used to gauge ball movement, and why you cant look at the data sets your looking at as a legitimate gauge of what is helpful for NBA teams.

Yes, yes, I totally agree. It's why I would never point to assist numbers as proof of anything regarding the efficency of an offense.

Just for the record, I have never said "ball movement doesn't matter". Also to be far, I can't say I've seen any data the proves it does matter either. I would HOPE it matters.

 

[BonesJones]

It would be very rare for a measurable to have meaning to one team and not 29 other teams. I guess in general, I would say yes it would make more sense to look at league wide data to see if it is a measure that holds any value. Specifically, regarding assists, I'm not sure why they wouldn't have had a strong correlation league wide for many years, but would have a strong correlation to one team.

There are real flaws with using assists as a measure of "quality".

Why wouldnt it have a strong correlation?

Some teams thrive in isolation.
Some teams play a slower pace.
Some teams get to the line a ton.
Some teams rely on 3s more.
Etc...

 

[BonesJones]

Yes, yes, I totally agree. It's why I would never point to assist numbers as proof of anything regarding the efficency of an offense.

Just for the record, I have never said "ball movement doesn't matter". Also to be far, I can't say I've seen any data the proves it does matter either. I would HOPE it matters.

Why do you need data to prove it matters? You dont! Dont focus on stats to prove everything that your eyes should tell you.

 

[Tince]

How? All teams are different, so data derived from one team isnt as relevant to any of the other 29 teams, and averaging doesnt make it more relevant. And thats assuming it isnt flawed.

All teams are different, I agree. It sounds to me that you're making a case because all teams are different, you can't compare data from one team to another. I could be wrong, but I believe you compare Portland's rank or data with other teams as a way to back up points you're making.

 

[Tince]

Why wouldnt it have a strong correlation?

Some teams thrive in isolation.
Some teams play a slower pace.
Some teams get to the line a ton.
Some teams rely on 3s more.
Etc...

You're asking a great question about why something does or doesn't have a strong correlation and I could only guess. The fact that there is not a strong correlation between wins and assists is not something I thought would be the case, but the data is clear from a mathmatical standpoint.

 

[BonesJones]

All teams are different, I agree. It sounds to me that you're making a case because all teams are different, you can't compare data from one team to another. I could be wrong, but I believe you compare Portland's rank or data with other teams as a way to back up points you're making.

Never said that. Simply said that team based stats are more relevant to that team than the stats of other teams when determi ing what works for said team... Thats different than measuring the quality of an area of the game for a team through comparison.