Game Thread GAME# 74: CLIPPERS@ BLAZERS - APRIL 1, 2015 - WEDNESDAY, 7:00 PM (PST), KGW & NBATV

[Draco]

This is a HUGE game. Seeds 2-6 in the West are still up for grabs. With 5 teams fighting it out and 39 combined games left, there are just too many scenarios to even guess who finishes where. But...

The Clippers have the easiest remaining schedule of the 5. They only have 7 games left, and only two against playoff teams (POR and MEM). Their other games are pretty much gimmes (2 against LAL, 2 against DEN and the last game of the year against PHO - who will be eliminated from the playoff picture by then).

So, we REALLY need to beat them tonight if we hope to have HCA against them in the playoffs. Because we will be a division winner, we will likely have the higher seed, but if they have a better record, they get HCA. Winning tonight gives us a much better chance to have the same, or better record, than the Clipps and bumps the head-to-head record to 2-2. If we beat the Clippers tonight, they lose to MEM and beat the patsies, they finish with 54 wins and we still have a chance to have HCA against them in the first round. If we lose, they probably end up with 55 wins and hold the head-to-head tie breaker over us. We'd need to win our remaining 8 games to get HCA over them.

At this point, it's just too complicated to figure out all the potential tie breakers. It's not inconceivable that there will be a five-way tie for second in the West (or at least a 3-way pr 4-way tie), and then the tie breakers get complicated (first, you have to figure out which of MEM, HOU and SAS win the SW Division, then compare records against the other 4, etc.).

What it really comes down to is: we need to win as many of our remaining games as possible and the other 4 teams, especially the ones that already have more wins than us (MEM, HOU and LAC) need to lose as many as possible. Because head-to-head record against the other teams in a multi-way tie is the second tie breaker, if we do end up in a multi-way tie, we need HOU and SAS to be two of the teams we are tied with as we are 3-1 against SAS and 2-1 against HOU. Our 0-4 record against MEM kills us if we're involved in a multi-way tie that includes the Grizzlies.

So, beat LAC tonight, go 7-1 over our last 8 games to get to 56 wins and cheer for MEM to loose at least 3 of their final 7 games. That's the most viable scenario for grabbing the 2nd seed.

BNM

I don't think your comments are correct with multi-way tie. I think the division champs are determined first (which would be us and the SW division winner) and they all are seeded above non-division champs. Then head to head record is considered between those two divisions champs. So we have the tie breaker against all of SAS, HOU, LAC, and maybe MEM with the exception being Memphis winning the Southwest division then they would have the tie breaker over us.

 

[Boob-No-More]

We need this ref to call the game!

Or, David Guthrie. He gave Doc a quick T the last time we played to the Clippers to let him know he wasn't going to put up with his whining all night long.

Tony Brothers was the crew chief when Doc ripped the officials in the media after they lost a game in OKC in the playoffs last year. Hopefully, Brothers has a good memory. The thing I hate most about the non-stop whining is it eventually leads to the Clippers getting calls they shouldn't. That's what I loved about Guthrie's T the last time we played the Clippers. He basically told Doc to sit down and shut up or you'll be watching the rest of this game from the locker room. I hate it when refs are intimidated or star struck.

BNM

 

[Draco]

Easily the biggest game of the year. Not gonna call it a must win, though. Those don't exist until elimination nights in the playoffs

Yeah "must win" is way overused. It obviously applies to elimination games. I would also apply it to 0-2 series as no team has ever come back from 0-3 so historically speaking it is a must win. But no regular season game is as important as half a quarter of a playoff game.

Each playoff game is huge and one win instead of a loss changes the teams likehood of winning the series drastically.

 

[illmatic99]

Whining about refs makes us sound like HOU fans. Bottom line is we're pretty evenly matched right now. They're missing Crawful, we're missing Wes.

But given that they're coming off a back to back, got in late last night after a late starting game, and it's in Portland, we should still be able to take care of business no matter how much Doc et al complain. No excuses.

Three games in now, Dame has been mostly shut down by CP3 and their trapping D. Hoping he and Terry came up with a solution for that.

 

[BBert]

Unfortunately, Tony Brothers sucks and isn't likely to T-up Doc, CP3 or Blake. Get ready for a real whine fest tonight (in other words, a typical Clippers game).

BNM

This.

 

[magnifier661]

Whining about refs makes us sound like HOU fans. Bottom line is we're pretty evenly matched right now. They're missing Crawful, we're missing Wes.

But given that they're coming off a back to back, got in late last night after a late starting game, and it's in Portland, we should still be able to take care of business no matter how much Doc et al complain. No excuses.

Three games in now, Dame has been mostly shut down by CP3 and their trapping D. Hoping he and Terry came up with a solution for that.

If you don't believe the refs can't control the outcome of games, then I think you are sadly mistaken. They can make a few calls while a team is on a roll and change momentum. So even if you look at the box scores, a few bad calls in the middle of a game could completely change the dynamic of the game.

 

[riverman]

I say we crush every team we face and sweep the playoffs bringing the hardware home where it belongs. The Clippers don't even have their own arena! I'm still waiting for that RipCity2 thread about eating Spencer Hawes crow

 

[Pinwheel1]

Whining about refs makes us sound like HOU fans. Bottom line is we're pretty evenly matched right now. They're missing Crawful, we're missing Wes.

We are not whining right now. The game has not started. We are just stating the facts. The refs are a factor in deciding close games and they all react differently to coaches and super stars. Just ask Sheed.........or Tim Donaghy

 

[riverman]

We are not whining right now. The game has not started. We are just stating the facts. The refs are a factor in deciding close games and they all react differently to coaches and super stars. Just ask Sheed.........or Tim Donaghy

or Scott Foster

 

[Boob-No-More]

Whining about refs makes us sound like HOU fans.

Not really whining. I don't want, or expect, favoritism from the officials. I just want the game called fairly. I specifically mentioned the strong officiating the last time we played the Clippers and am hoping for more of the same.

BNM

 

[rasheedfan2005]

The most unpleasant team in the league to watch with their constant bitching and complaining for calls.

not sure about that one, the r*ckets are pretty unwatchable with flopping goat hidden dandruff but easily top 2 most annoying teams to watch

 

[Boob-No-More]

Yeah "must win" is way overused. It obviously applies to elimination games. I would also apply it to 0-2 series as no team has ever come back from 0-3 so historically speaking it is a must win. But no regular season game is as important as half a quarter of a playoff game.

Each playoff game is huge and one win instead of a loss changes the teams likehood of winning the series drastically.

Well, a win tonight drastically improves our chances of getting HCA, which drastically improves the likelihood of winning one more game in a playoff series, which dramatically improves the likelihood of winning that series.

So, maybe not "must win", but it is the most important game of the regular season, so far. A win for us, and a loss for LAC and also tying the season series at 2-2, all greatly improve our odds of getting HCA over the Clippers if we meet them in the first round. A loss tonight puts us two wins behind the Clippers, who have an incredibly easy remaining schedule, and gives them the season series 3-1. This game tonight has huge implications concerning HCA, which will increase our chances of advancing in the playoffs.

BNM

 

[BBert]

What does it say about my perception of refs that I was surprised by several CORRECT calls Foster made against the Clippers late.

Of course, the Blazers weren't involved, so there's that.

 

[HomerLovesKoolAid]

Bring back Javie!

 

[riverman]

What does it say about my perception of refs that I was surprised by several CORRECT calls Foster made against the Clippers late.

Actually, I noticed that. He even gave Meyers a favorable call last time he worked a Portland game

 

[riverman]

Bring back Javie!

Javie is the refs version of Steve Kerr. My favorite ref

 

[Boob-No-More]

What does it say about my perception of refs that I was surprised by several CORRECT calls Foster made against the Clippers late.

That replay works. I love that the viewers at home and the fans in the arena all get to see the same replays the refs do. It lets the refs call what they see on the floor and then double check it and make sure they get it right - right out in the open where everyone can see the evidence that supports the final decision.

BNM

 

[riverman]

That replay works. I love that the viewers at home and the fans in the arena all get to see the same replays the refs do. It lets the refs call what they see on the floor and then double check it and make sure they get it right - right out in the open where everyone can see the evidence that supports the final decision.

BNM

I agree

 

[Boob-No-More]

I don't think your comments are correct with multi-way tie. I think the division champs are determined first (which would be us and the SW division winner) and they all are seeded above non-division champs. Then head to head record is considered between those two divisions champs. So we have the tie breaker against all of SAS, HOU, LAC, and maybe MEM with the exception being Memphis winning the Southwest division then they would have the tie breaker over us.

Here's the exact wording for multi-way tie breakers from nba.com:

b. More Than Two Teams Tied

• (1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division.
• (2) Better winning percentage in all games among the tied teams.
• (3) Better winning percentage against teams in own division (only if all tied teams are in the same division).
• (4) Better winning percentage against teams in own conference.
• (5) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position).
• (6) Better net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents (“point differential”).

c. Guidelines For Applying Tie-Break Criteria.

• (1) (a) Since the three division winners are guaranteed a spot in the top four, ties to determine the division winners must be broken before any other ties.
• (b) When a tie must be broken to determine a division winner, the results of the tie-break shall be used to determine only the division winner and its playoff position, not any other playoff position(s).
• (2) If a tie involves more than two teams, the tie-break criteria in subparagraph b. shall be applied in the order set forth therein until the first to occur of the following:
• (a) Each of the tied teams has a different winning percentage or point differential under the applicable tiebreak criterion (a “complete” breaking of the tie). In this circumstance, the team with the best winning percentage or point differential under the criterion will be awarded the best playoff position, the team with the next-best winning percentage or point differential will be awarded the next-best playoff position, and so on, and no further application of the tie-break criteria will be required. ~OR~
• (b) One or more (but not all) of the tied teams has a different winning percentage or point differential under the applicable tie-break criterion (a “partial” breaking of the tie). In this circumstance: (x) any team(s) that performed better under the applicable criterion than any other team(s) will be awarded a higher playoff position than such other team(s); and (y) teams that had equivalent performance under the applicable criterion will remain tied, and such remaining tie(s) will be broken by applying, from the beginning, the criteria in subparagraph a.(1)-(6) above (for any remaining tie involving only two teams) or subparagraph b.(1)-(5) above (for any remaining tie involving more than two teams) and the guidelines set forth in this subparagraph c.
• (3) If application of the criteria in subparagraph a. or b. does not result in the breaking of a tie, the playoff positions of the tied teams will be determined by a random drawing.

So, as I said, Division winners are guaranteed no worse than 4th seed. So, first you determine the tie breaker for the SW Division crown - but all that does is determine the division winner (not any other playoff positions).

So, then you have two Division winners and three other teams, all tied with the same records. Next you look at winning percentages among all tied teams. So, in theory (I believe - I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong), it would be possible for say MEM to loose the SW Division tie breaker to SAS (this is hypothetical, as I haven't checked the winning percentages to break the 3-way division tie between MEM, HOU and SAS - plus HOU and SAS still play each other twice, so it could change), but still get the 2nd seed if their overall winning percentage is the best among the five tied teams (due to their 4-0 record against us). If that actually happened, MEM would be the second seed, in spite of not winning their division, SAS and POR would be the 3rd and 4th seeds (as Division winners) and HOU and LAC would be 5 and 6.

No wait, that's not right... In a five way tie the two division winners get the 2nd and 3rd spots and the other three get 4 through 6.

Oh fuck it. Let's just win out and take the 2nd seed outright!

BNM

 

[e_blazer]

In order to win tonight, I think LA has to have a huge game. If I were Stotts, I'd be reminding LaMarcus that the only reason he got to start the All Star game is because Griffin was injured. Looking forward to LA abusing the Blakester tonight.

 

[Draco]

Well, a win tonight drastically improves our chances of getting HCA, which drastically improves the likelihood of winning one more game in a playoff series, which dramatically improves the likelihood of winning that series.

So, maybe not "must win", but it is the most important game of the regular season, so far. A win for us, and a loss for LAC and also tying the season series at 2-2, all greatly improve our odds of getting HCA over the Clippers if we meet them in the first round. A loss tonight puts us two wins behind the Clippers, who have an incredibly easy remaining schedule, and gives them the season series 3-1. This game tonight has huge implications concerning HCA, which will increase our chances of advancing in the playoffs.

The season series is irrelevant since we will be the division winner and own the tie breaker over the Clippers. I agree its a big game in that it gives both a win to us and a loss to the Clippers. The last games we played against the Spurs and the Rockets were both more important as both those clinched season series tiebreakers which could come into play and gave a loss to teams we may end the year close in the standings with.

If we win and finish tied or 1 game ahead of the Clippers in the final standings this game will have been worth more than a normal game. While that scenario is possible odds are strongly against such an exact outcome so most likely this game is just as important as any other game.

But when there are two losses between the 2-6th seeds and less than 10 games in the season EVERY game is critical. I'd love for us to get the 2nd seed and even the 3rd seed would set us up better for the postseason.

 

[Draco]

Here's the exact wording for multi-way tie breakers from nba.com:
So, then you have two Division winners and three other teams, all tied with the same records. Next you look at winning percentages among all tied teams. So, in theory (I believe - I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong), it would be possible for say MEM to loose the SW Division tie breaker to SAS (this is hypothetical, as I haven't checked the winning percentages to break the 3-way division tie between MEM, HOU and SAS - plus HOU and SAS still play each other twice, so it could change), but still get the 2nd seed if their overall winning percentage is the best among the five tied teams (due to their 4-0 record against us). If that actually happened, MEM would be the second seed, in spite of not winning their division, SAS and POR would be the 3rd and 4th seeds (as Division winners) and HOU and LAC would be 5 and 6.

This is incorrect, division champs get seeded higher. It says so in bullet point #1 of your quote.

More Than Two Teams Tied

• (1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division.

Division champs always get seeded above non division champs.

Entering the 2009 playoffs the Blazers were tied with Denver and San Antonio with 54 wins. Denver won the NW division and the Spurs won the Southwest. Even though we beat the Spurs 3-1 that year, we tied Denver 2-2 and the Spurs lost to Denver 1-2 they were seeded above us since they were division champs. That dropped us down to the 4/5 matchup against a difficult Yao Ming lead Houston team.

 

[Draco]

Getting the #2 seed would give us home court in the second round and an easier first round opponent in Dallas.

But getting up to the #3 seed would be a huge benefit as well. First we would play the team that stumbles the most out of Houston/Lac/SAS/Mem and would appear to be playing the worst. I suspect this may be the Rockets. But there is another benefit; I would not at all be surprised to see the winner of the 4/5 series end up beating Golden State. The west is very evenly matched this year. In that scenario we would have home court advantage in the conference finals.

 

[Strenuus]

Getting the #2 seed would give us home court in the second round and an easier first round opponent in Dallas.

But getting up to the #3 seed would be a huge benefit as well. First we would play the team that stumbles the most out of Houston/Lac/SAS/Mem and would appear to be playing the worst. I suspect this may be the Rockets. But there is another benefit; I would not at all be surprised to see the winner of the 4/5 series end up beating Golden State. The west is very evenly matched this year. In that scenario we would have home court advantage in the conference finals.

I know in this thread I voted for the Mavs... but god damn would it not be entertaining as hell to play the Rockets again? Though, without Beverely, I won't be yelling at my TV at what a huge douchecanoe he is.

Wait, they have harden. I retract that statement.

 

[riverman]

We're going to beat them because we can and we want to!

 

[Strenuus]

We're going to beat them because we can and we want to!

Are we going to say "2-4-6-8 who do we appreciate? CLIPPERS!" after the game?

 

[riverman]

Are we going to say "2-4-6-8 who do we appreciate? CLIPPERS!" after the game?

After we crush them we'll give each team member their choice of Blazer bobble heads..Kaman, Blake or Jamal Crawfords

 

[Strenuus]

After we crush them we'll give each team member their choice of Blazer bobble heads..Kaman, Blake or Jamal Crawfords

Felton ate all those. Thought they were donut holes on a stick.

 

[Darkwebs]

Was Darkwebs nominated on the Best Poster thread? He should be.

Hey King, thanks for the compliment. It means a lot coming from someone who is more famous than Travis Outlaw.

 

[Strenuus]

Hey King, thanks for the compliment. It means a lot coming from someone who is more famous than Travis Outlaw.

I think Eric should do a musical number about your nomination, that would really swing the vote!

Sorry, I just got done with House of Cards.