Gavin and CIP were at it again this morning

[The Professional Fan]

This morning on 95.5 Gavin and CIP were comparing Greg's rookie year to Dwight Howard/Amare Stoudemire/Yao Ming rookie years. They were convinced that those three players had much better rookie years, and that Greg was underachieving. On the surface, I suppose I can understand how someone could think that, but I decided to do a little digging.

My initial thoughts were this:
Orlando/Phoenix/Houston all had worse than a 41-41 record the year previous to drafting, or in Portland's case, actively playing their franchise caliber big. This would lead to their (ORL/PHO/HOU) franchise big being more the centerpiece of the offense, thus allowing them to accumulate more impressive stats and play more minutes. Conversely, Greg is our 3rd (or 4th behind Blake) option on offense behind two players (Roy/Aldridge) that averaged close to 20pts per game the year BEFORE Greg "arrived." Of course we have to take in to account Greg's foul problems, which limits his minutes as well, so I compared his fouls per game vs the others, and of course Greg avg's more FPG. But that is a FIXABLE problem. Greg just has to learn how to stay out of foul trouble which is a technique thing not an inherent skill (only 2 fouls in his last game, which led to 24pts and 15rbs). Defenders CAN and DO develop better technique and decision making.

Just look at the numbers below:

Dwight Howard
Rookie year ('04-'05): 12pts 10rbs 52%fg
Avg Minutes Played: 32.6
Fouls per game: 2.8
Orlando All-Stars ('04-'05): Grant Hill
Orlando record previous year ('03-'04): 21-61

Amare Stoudamire
Rookie year ('02-'03): 14pts 9rbs 47%fg
Avg Minutes Played: 31.3
Fouls per game: 3.3
Phoenix All-Stars ('02-'03): Stephon Marbury/Shawn Marion
Phoenix record previous year ('01-'02): 36-46

Yao Ming
Rookie year ('02-'03): 14pts 8rbs 50%fg
Avg Minutes Played: 29.1
Fouls per game: 2.8
Houston All-Stars ('02-'03): Steve Francis/Yao Ming
Houston record previous year ('01-'02): 28-54

Greg Oden
Rookie year ('08-'09): 8pts 7rbs 54%fg (Highest FG% of all four players + more minutes would = ??)
Avg Minutes Played: 22.7 (All other players played almost 10 more minutes per game)
Fouls per game: 3.7 (Almost 4 fouls per game is considered very high)
Portland All-Stars ('08-'09 projected): Brandon Roy
Portland record previous year: 41- 41 (Best record of all teams the previous year. In other words, something was going right before Greg joined the lineup, so why make drastic strategic changes upon his arrival? You don't! You fit him in until he's comfortable)

Or, we can make this very easy, and go Per 36 minutes played:

Howard per 36 rookie year
13.2pts
11.1rbs
52% FG
1blk

Amare per 36 rookie year
15.5pts
10.1rbs
47%FG
1.2blk

Yao per 36 rookie year
16.7pts
10.2rbs
50% FG
2.2blk

Oden per 36 rookie year
13.2pts
11.1rbs
54% FG
1.7blk

Per 36 puts Greg directly on par with the others.

Gavin and CIP can suck it.

P.S. And for fun (and Da Rizzle) let's look at Greg's per 36 this year vs Bynum's:

Oden per 36 rookie year
13.2pts
11.1rbs
54% FG
1.7blk

Bynum this year
15.5pts
9.4rbs
54% FG
2.1blk

Screw that. Let's do Bynum's rookie year
7.9pts
8.5rbs
40%FG
2.3blks

That's better.

 

[BoBoBREWSKI]

I heard their producer/engineer (Zinger) was laid off a few days ago.

 

[Stevenson]

Nice work Professional Fan!

 

[alex42083]

Since those idiots were thinking Greg sucked after his first game back at Miami and wouldn't amount to anything, then hung up on Wheels about it when he tried arguing his point, those guys lost their credibility.

 

[pault]

After listening to these guys for a few months it seems like their just trying to stir up controversy whenever possible. Probably hoping to bring themselves up to Conzano's elite "hack" level of broadcasting. I'm not even sure they believe most of the opinions they express about the blazers.

 

[retroblazers]

did you bother to email that info to them? i'm sure they wouldn't be able to make any sense of it since research appears to have been done

 

[hasoos]

I am still trying to understand why anybody listens to them.

 

[LittleAlex]

They are on before Jim Rome, so I occationally catch the last of their show when I work from home on Wed. I can feel myself become dumber as they speak.

 

[alex42083]

did you bother to email that info to them? i'm sure they wouldn't be able to make any sense of it since research appears to have been done

I don't think they'd even understand it if you brought it up to them really.

 

[The Professional Fan]

I don't think they'd even understand it if you brought it up to them really.

Maybe I'm retarded, but I couldn't find an email link on their site. I didn't try very hard, either.

 

[noknobs]

Oden per 36 rookie year
13.2pts
11.1rbs
54% FG
1.7blk

Per 36 puts Greg directly on par with the others.

Gavin and CIP can suck it.

I had a big discussion with someone awhile ago at just how stupid per36 & per48 stats are, so I'm not going to hijack the thread. But here are a few other rookie bigmen's per 36 stats. They seem to fit your definition of "directly on par" as well.

Brooke Lopez per 36
14.0 pts
10.1 rbs
48.5% FG
2.5 blks

Marc Gasol per 36
13.4 pts
8.7 rbs
51.8% FG
1.3 blks

Jason Thompson per 36
14 pts
9.8 rbs
48.4% FG
.86 blks

Kevin Love
13.6 pts
13.5 rbs
42.2% FG
.96 blks

It doesn't prove anything except that if everyone played exactly the same amount of minutes, their productivity would be relatively similar, compared to actually statistics -- what a surprise...

The fact remains, you are what you are. If you could play more, you would. And this is not an anti-Greg post, I think he'll be fine.

 

[Road Blocker]

I have to say that I have a very hard time buying the per 36/48 or any estimated statistics in Greg Oden's case.

It is Greg's fault that he gets into foul trouble on a fairly regular basis. The other players on this list, were able to play.

I think it is not reasonable to say that Greg Oden is a bust, or will never be a great player. However, it is very reasonable to say that these three had better years as rookies, and that everyone expected more out of Greg than he has brought. There is still half a season left to take into account, but don't throw this out completely.

Gavin and CIP aren't the most accurate sports show (they compete on the FM side, with FM morning shows) and I don't agree with the D+ rating for Oden, but I don't think you can say that he is in their category as a rookie, or that he has completely met expectations.

 

[Masbee]

I had a big discussion with someone awhile ago at just how stupid per36 & per48 stats are, so I'm not going to hijack the thread. But here are a few other rookie bigmen's per 36 stats. They seem to fit your definition of "directly on par" as well.

Brooke Lopez per 36
14.0 pts
10.1 rbs
48.5% FG
2.5 blks

Marc Gasol per 36
13.4 pts
8.7 rbs
51.8% FG
1.3 blks

Jason Thompson per 36
14 pts
9.8 rbs
48.4% FG
.86 blks

Kevin Love
13.6 pts
13.5 rbs
42.2% FG
.96 blks

It doesn't prove anything except that if everyone played exactly the same amount of minutes, their productivity would be relatively similar, compared to actually statistics -- what a surprise...

The fact remains, you are what you are. If you could play more, you would. And this is not an anti-Greg post, I think he'll be fine.

Except your own numbers don't really support your case.

What do teams want a (classic) big man to do? Take up space. Defend the paint. Block shots. Rebound. Score high percentage shots in the paint. Get other bigs in foul trouble. And, ideally, draw double teams in the post.

Not all the stats are listed to go over all the points, but of what you listed;

Lopez is an inefficient scorer;

Gasol is a poor rebounder (and a terrible defender)

Thompson scores, but otherwise doesn't provide Center type stats and therefore game.

Kevin Love doesn't block shots or score at a high percentage.

Howard, Yao and Oden are similar. The above are not of the same type.

And finally, none of these numbers are adjusted for PACE.

If these numbers were adjusted for pace, Oden's numbers would look better comparitively as the Blazers have the slowest pace in the NBA.

 

[SodaPopinski]

Maybe I'm retarded, but I couldn't find an email link on their site. I didn't try very hard, either.

Pretty sure it's msp@955thegame.com

-Pop

 

[THE HCP]

Both of them are jerkoffs! Here's some info that will prove that Gavin is a complete tool! He is no longer able to go to the Blazer games because he had his media credentials revoked!!!!! What a fuck! He gave his media pass to one of his friends and his boy tried to get into the locker room post game! A couple team reps recognized the name, and not the face and kicked the guy out! So how does one give an educated opinion on the team, when he can't even go to the games! Nice work you fuckin dork!

 

[julius]

Both of them are jerkoffs! Here's some info that will prove that Gavin is a complete tool! He is no longer able to go to the Blazer games because he had his media credentials revoked!!!!! What a fuck! He gave his media pass to one of his friends and his boy tried to get into the locker room post game! A couple team reps recognized the name, and not the face and kicked the guy out! So how does one give an educated opinion on the team, when he can't even go to the games! Nice work you fuckin dork!

That would surely seem to be a reason to no longer host a radio show.

 

[SodaPopinski]

Both of them are jerkoffs! Here's some info that will prove that Gavin is a complete tool! He is no longer able to go to the Blazer games because he had his media credentials revoked!!!!! What a fuck! He gave his media pass to one of his friends and his boy tried to get into the locker room post game! A couple team reps recognized the name, and not the face and kicked the guy out! So how does one give an educated opinion on the team, when he can't even go to the games! Nice work you fuckin dork!

What a douche.

-Pop

 

[noknobs]

Except your own numbers don't really support your case.

What do teams want a (classic) big man to do? Take up space. Defend the paint. Block shots. Rebound. Score high percentage shots in the paint. Get other bigs in foul trouble. And, ideally, draw double teams in the post.

Not all the stats are listed to go over all the points, but of what you listed;

Lopez is an inefficient scorer;

Gasol is a poor rebounder (and a terrible defender)

Thompson scores, but otherwise doesn't provide Center type stats and therefore game.

Kevin Love doesn't block shots or score at a high percentage.

Howard, Yao and Oden are similar. The above are not of the same type.

And finally, none of these numbers are adjusted for PACE.

If these numbers were adjusted for pace, Oden's numbers would look better comparitively as the Blazers have the slowest pace in the NBA.

You're missing the whole point, that you are who you are, not to mention you're wrong, the numbers do support my point. Their numbers are just as close to Oden as he is to say, Yao, who scored 3.5pts and .5 more blks per 36 minutes. All the rookies I listed are better than Greg in at least one category, & Lopez & Love are better in two. If I'm just going by these stat lines, I'm not seeing anything in Oden's line that separates him from these other rookies, sorry we disagree.

I mean, I think Oden will be better than those I listed, but these per36 stats are crap because they not only don't tell the whole story, they're only valid in a completely fictional world where everyone plays the same amount regardless of ability.

edit - And it's unfair to say categorically that all teams look for the same things in a center. Mike Dantoni does not want the same thing as Greg P. Some like a center that is more of an outside threat to take opposing big men away from the basket, etc. That will decrease their FG%.

 

[talman]

Both of them are jerkoffs! Here's some info that will prove that Gavin is a complete tool! He is no longer able to go to the Blazer games because he had his media credentials revoked!!!!! What a fuck! He gave his media pass to one of his friends and his boy tried to get into the locker room post game! A couple team reps recognized the name, and not the face and kicked the guy out! So how does one give an educated opinion on the team, when he can't even go to the games! Nice work you fuckin dork!

Wow...unbelievable. I've heard of stupid things before but wow...this ranks right up there.

 

[ebott]

They play devil's advocate all the time. There's no shame in that.

You can go ahead and look at the numbers all you want. Greg has been unimpressive in the vast majority of the games this season. He's had nowhere near the impact that any of the guys Gavin and CIP were talking about had their rookie years. It's disappointing any way you look at it.

There's plenty of factors that might be contributing to why Greg has been so disappointing. It's entirely possible that Monday was a breakout game for Greg and he'll be great for the rest of the season.

But don't go raggin' on media types for pointing out the obvious.

 

[Masbee]

You're missing the whole point, that you are who you are, not to mention you're wrong, the numbers do support my point. Their numbers are just as close to Oden as he is to say, Yao, who scored 3.5pts and .5 more blks per 36 minutes. All the rookies I listed are better than Greg in at least one category, & Lopez & Love are better in two. If I'm just going by these stat lines, I'm not seeing anything in Oden's line that separates him from these other rookies, sorry we disagree.

I mean, I think Oden will be better than those I listed, but these per36 stats are crap because they not only don't tell the whole story, they're only valid in a completely fictional world where everyone plays the same amount regardless of ability.

edit - And it's unfair to say categorically that all teams look for the same things in a center. Mike Dantoni does not want the same thing as Greg P. Some like a center that is more of an outside threat to take opposing big men away from the basket, etc. That will decrease their FG%.

Which point am I missing?

That you tried to compare apples and oranges?

Nice try, but it doesn't work.

Oden does EVERYTHING a coach wants in a classic center. (Note, I mention "classic" in my original post. Mentioning D'Antonio is thus pointless.) Oden just doesn't do it at a high level and he can't stay out of foul trouble - yet.

You are talking about bigs that do not do ALL the things a classic center does. Why bring them up? Who gives a hoot what some 6' 9", jumpshooting "big" does? Do they draw doubles? Do they cause offensive players to change their shots just by being in the space? Why not talk about Westbrooks stats? Or Joe Alexander?

 

[The Professional Fan]

I had a big discussion with someone awhile ago at just how stupid per36 & per48 stats are, so I'm not going to hijack the thread. But here are a few other rookie bigmen's per 36 stats. They seem to fit your definition of "directly on par" as well.

Brooke Lopez per 36
14.0 pts
10.1 rbs
48.5% FG
2.5 blks

Marc Gasol per 36
13.4 pts
8.7 rbs
51.8% FG
1.3 blks

Jason Thompson per 36
14 pts
9.8 rbs
48.4% FG
.86 blks

Kevin Love
13.6 pts
13.5 rbs
42.2% FG
.96 blks

It doesn't prove anything except that if everyone played exactly the same amount of minutes, their productivity would be relatively similar, compared to actually statistics -- what a surprise...

The fact remains, you are what you are. If you could play more, you would. And this is not an anti-Greg post, I think he'll be fine.

Well, considering I started this topic to specifically counter what Chad and CIP had to say about Oden vs Howard/Amare/Yao their rookie years, I think I proved MY point. I didn't mention Love, Thompson, M Gasol, or Lopez, nor did I intend to.

One thing I *did* leave off my original post was that I do believe Oden will lower his FPG and will have a much better second half of the season. I'm looking forward to comparing his final numbers vs the list of players I ORIGINALLY posted, or, I suppose, any other rookie center.

Until then....

 

[The Professional Fan]

Both of them are jerkoffs! Here's some info that will prove that Gavin is a complete tool! He is no longer able to go to the Blazer games because he had his media credentials revoked!!!!! What a fuck! He gave his media pass to one of his friends and his boy tried to get into the locker room post game! A couple team reps recognized the name, and not the face and kicked the guy out! So how does one give an educated opinion on the team, when he can't even go to the games! Nice work you fuckin dork!

And they are essentially EMPLOYED by the Blazers, right? Or, rather, Paul Allen, who owns the Blazers.

 

[noknobs]

Which point am I missing?

That you tried to compare apples and oranges?

Nice try, but it doesn't work.

Oden does EVERYTHING a coach wants in a classic center. (Note, I mention "classic" in my original post. Mentioning D'Antonio is thus pointless.) Oden just doesn't do it at a high level and he can't stay out of foul trouble - yet.

You are talking about bigs that do not do ALL the things a classic center does. Why bring them up? Who gives a hoot what some 6' 9", jumpshooting "big" does? Do they draw doubles? Do they cause offensive players to change their shots just by being in the space? Why not talk about Westbrooks stats? Or Joe Alexander?

Haha... I'm comparing apples & oranges, yet the OP is comparing Amare & Oden? You have got to be kidding me, that dude doesn't play defense at all and in NO WAY does all that we ask a classic center to do. You're being completely hypocritical. The similarity is they're both big men, and so are all the guys I brought up... so I have no idea what the hell you're problem is.

Below is my only point about per36:

It doesn't prove anything except that if everyone played exactly the same amount of minutes, their productivity would be relatively similar, compared to actually statistics -- what a surprise...

The fact remains, you are what you are. If you could play more, you would.

This is not about what a 'classic' center does, it's about the stupidity of per36 stats. Yeesh.

 

[noknobs]

Well, considering I started this topic to specifically counter what Chad and CIP had to say about Oden vs Howard/Amare/Yao their rookie years, I think I proved MY point. I didn't mention Love, Thompson, M Gasol, or Lopez, nor did I intend to.

One thing I *did* leave off my original post was that I do believe Oden will lower his FPG and will have a much better second half of the season. I'm looking forward to comparing his final numbers vs the list of players I ORIGINALLY posted, or, I suppose, any other rookie center.

Until then....

You didn't prove your point, because Yao, Howard, and Amare had a bigger impact their rookie year than Oden has, so far. Oden doesn't play 36 minutes a game, so any stats assuming he does are irrelevant.

 

[THE HCP]

And they are essentially EMPLOYED by the Blazers, right? Or, rather, Paul Allen, who owns the Blazers.

You are basically an employee of Vulcan Inc.!

 

[oldmangrouch]

There are times when playing-time-neutral stats are useful. I would argue this isn't one of them.

Oden's minutes aren't being held down by an unreasonable coach, or by playing behind a top vet. They are limited by his own fouls and lack of conditioning.

 

[julius]

You are basically an employee of Vulcan Inc.!

So in your case, you're a Vulcan idiot then?

 

[THE HCP]

So in your case, you're a Vulcan idiot then?

Blazer employee I think.

 

[Masbee]

Haha... I'm comparing apples & oranges, yet the OP is comparing Amare & Oden? You have got to be kidding me, that dude doesn't play defense at all and in NO WAY does all that we ask a classic center to do. You're being completely hypocritical. The similarity is they're both big men, and so are all the guys I brought up... so I have no idea what the hell you're problem is.

Below is my only point about per36:


This is not about what a 'classic' center does, it's about the stupidity of per36 stats. Yeesh.

Notice, I didn't mention Amare in my previous posts, as I agree he isn't a classic center. Amare was drafted as a Power Forward, ended up playing center for a very rare system, and is now back at Forward.

So, you are not arguing my point, or the original poster's point, you are arguing for those radio dudes. They are the ones bringing up Amare in comparison to Oden. You just extended their mishmashing of two thoughts (comparing rookie stats of similar styled players Yao and Howard, and comparing rookie stats in general) into one comparo.

per36 stats aren't "stupid".

It is just data.

People who don't understand the numbers are stupid.

If you don't understand the numbers, and it makes you feel better to call them "stupid", instead of your lack of comprehension about them - go for it. The stats won't mind. They don't have feelings either.

As for folks who are actually interested in the topic, Oden's impact on games so far this season has been limited. Oden's impact on games last season was extremely limited....

Since Oden has some potential excuses (conditioning, coming off knee surgery, foot injury, plagued with foul trouble), fans are curious if he can stay healthy, improve his conditioning and limit fouls, what kind of numbers could he POSSIBLY put up for the 2nd half of the season and next season.

Per36 stats give those fans a starting point to work with. I don't see anything wrong with that.

Looking at the numbers, I think Oden has a good chance to put up some real improved 2nd half numbers and get his season averages up to 11 & 9. That isn't great, but would be much closer to the nubmers of the players the radio dudes brought up.