GMs weigh in on Greg Oden versus Derrick Rose

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Ed O said:
C'mon. The Bulls added a superstar. You can see based on how much better they are than last year.

They're all the way up to 9-11 from 7-13 after 20 games last year.

Rose Effect!

Ed O.
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They also played the toughest schedule in the NBA so far.
 
I don't think it is as clear as everyone is making it out to be . . . but I do know that Rose can't give Bosh a gash on the forehead that requires two stiches while slamming the ball through the hoop.

Blazers needed a player like Oden more than they do a player like Rose . . . Blazers can always trade for an elite PG :D (aren't there like three more high draft pick PGs coming out this next draft)
 
Even using this year's SOS - the Bulls did not play the toughest schedule in the league.

As for why the Blazer's SOS is not as hard as the perception of the teams played based on last year's schedule - it's because these teams played against the Blazers... ;)
 
Honest to god - I think the world of Rose - and it is going to be hard to find an elite PG like him - but it is going to be harder to find an elite big like GO - so GO still has more value as a prospect. It is as simple as this.
 
Well one of the toughest sos'. It was the highest sos during last week. Bulls playing Milwaukee, Washington, and the 76ers in December while Indiana played Boston x 2, Lakers, Cavs and while the Raptors played Denver, Utah, and Portland pushed Bulls down to 3rd highest sos.
 
I won't try and say who has the toughest schedule but I looked up the Bulls schedule and it looked really tough. That being said, I wouldn't take Rose over Oden. Oden has the misfortune of being a rookie and coming off of MF at the same time. He doesn't have one veteran trick to rely on. Luckily, without his former explosiveness he is still the best center we have had in years. As a rookie. Pretty good IMO.
 
DaRizzle said:
Dude...cmon....really? You using the highlighted part as a reason just screams you are grasping.
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Oden is almost unfailingly double-teamed in the post. If you don't think double-teams in the post make a big difference for teammates on offense, you don't have a very firm grasp of basketball.

That also pretty much puts paid to the idea that Oden has limited offensive upside. Fans who only look at raw stats may think that, but opposing coaches realize that Oden already will overmatch single defenders. And this is as a rookie, recovering from micro-fracture surgery. That pretty much proves that NBA coaches believe Oden has a lot of offensive ability.

So far this year: Rose>Oden
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Rose 2008 PER: 17.4
Oden 2008 PER: 16.7

Almost identical. Rose has played more minutes, but Oden is a far, far more impactful defensive player. The two have been pretty even this year.

While both are rookies and should improve as the year wears on, Oden should improve more because he's still not in basketball shape, having had to avoid proper basketball for a year.
 
They are not even. Rose has a higher PER, higher basic stats, while playing more minutes. There is a chance that Oden's PER would dip if he he had to do what he's doing over 40 minutes a game like Rose.
 
Денг Гордон said:
They are not even. Rose has a higher PER, higher basic stats, while playing more minutes. There is a chance that Oden's PER would dip if he he had to do what he's doing over 40 minutes a game like Rose.
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Let's run with that. Yes, there is a chance his PER would dip if his minutes increased to 40 per game.

OTOH:

Oden with >20 min: 7 games, 5.1ppg, 5.7 ppg
Oden with 21-31 min: 8 games, 11.3 ppg, 10 rpg.

His games with 30+ minutes? 3 of them. 22/10, 11/13 and 13/10 for an average of 15/11.

I don't know where the chart peters off to diminishing returns, but I'm much more in the "if he plays more the numbers go up" category.
 
BrianFromWA said:
Let's run with that. Yes, there is a chance his PER would dip if his minutes increased to 40 per game.

OTOH:

Oden with >20 min: 7 games, 5.1ppg, 5.7 ppg
Oden with 21-31 min: 8 games, 11.3 ppg, 10 rpg.

His games with 30+ minutes? 3 of them. 22/10, 11/13 and 13/10 for an average of 15/11.

I don't know where the chart peters off to diminishing returns, but I'm much more in the "if he plays more the numbers go up" category.
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Yeah, but when your in the small sample size of 3 games over 30 minutes, there is a decent chance you're in the "he's only playing that many minutes because he was playing well that night" territory.
 
Денг Гордон said:
They are not even. Rose has a higher PER, higher basic stats, while playing more minutes. There is a chance that Oden's PER would dip if he he had to do what he's doing over 40 minutes a game like Rose.
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Yes, there is a chance. On the other hand - his best games were the ones where he got big minutes - so there is a very good chance that the exact opposite will happen as well...
 
Anyway, that Rose kid can't even keep himself healthy in bed - he is an injury risk - no one in his right mind will choose a guy who can't even eat an apple without needing a trip to the hospital!
 
Денг Гордон said:
They are not even. Rose has a higher PER
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Barely. A less than 1 PER difference is not very significant, especially this early in the season. A week ago, Oden had a PER over 18. They are essentially even in PER.

Rose has played more minutes. That's a solid advantage to him. Oden has been a far, far more impactful defensive player. That's a solid advantage to him.

When you consider that Oden is still working his way back to his previous shape, while Rose is not, and they are still at least even...it's no wonder that NBA GMs prefer Oden.
 
That also pretty much puts paid to the idea that Oden has limited offensive upside. Fans who only look at raw stats may think that, but opposing coaches realize that Oden already will overmatch single defenders.
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Really? I mean if he has great footwork (which Im not sure/dont know) then maybe on dunks. What Ive seen of him (which I admit is less than you) he has an ugly shot for his shots from 4-8 feet. Flat and hard.
 
With a rookie Tyson on the roster - the bulls were #21 in defensive efficiency in the league. With a rookie Oden coming back from injury the Blazers are #15 in defensive efficiency (or #9 if we only include the games Oden played).

Defense is really a team game and one where a good defensive player's impact is a lot bigger than his personal stat-sheet.

If you can not see it - there is a good chance you will never be a good basketball talent evaluator.
 
DaRizzle said:
Really? I mean if he has great footwork (which Im not sure/dont know) then maybe on dunks. What Ive seen of him (which I admit is less than you) he has an ugly shot for his shots from 4-8 feet. Flat and hard.
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Well, I was pointing out that NBA coaches clearly see him as an offensive thread right now, as illustrated by them doubling him in the post. Considering how many open shots this creates for Portland (and they've been knocking them down), they would definitely not do this unless they felt they had to.

As for my subjective evaluation of him, I think Oden currently has great strength and surprisingly good footwork. Against a single defender, he's capable of establishing deep position and then getting the defender off-balance to either go past him or draw the foul. Right now, he hasn't handled double-teams well in terms of trying to score. When guarded by two players, he gets into a rush and is clearly spending too much time "thinking" about technique. The NBA game hasn't slowed down enough, yet, for him to simply read and react to double-teams. However, he's already shown very good passing skills for a big man, so he's making defenses pay for double-teams by hitting open teammates.

When Oden gets his explosiveness back and gets used to NBA speed and defenses, I think he's going to be a very difficult player to handle, even with double-teams.

Even without the explosiveness or experience, he's already a top rebounder (in terms of efficiency) and a great defensive presence.
 
Денг Гордон said:
I don't see Oden being this special player so far this season. He's not much different from Tyson Chandler at the same age.
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Nobody even considered double-teaming Chandler (and they still don't). Oden is already a virtually automatic double-team in the post. There's a massive difference.

Plus, Chandler was operating with his peak athleticism. Oden isn't, yet.
 
Денг Гордон said:
I don't see Oden being this special player so far this season. He's not much different from Tyson Chandler at the same age.[/url]
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I am not 100% positive, but I would bet that Chandler didn't draw double-teams at age 20. Hell... he doesn't even draw them today.

Oden, on the other hand, does.

Ed O.
 
this post is hilarious. I'm guessing a lot of you haven't posted with sloth (the bulls fan you are arguing with) before, he will never give up saying Rose is the best, as some of us will never give up Oden being better. Best to just let it go imo.
 
JFizzleRaider said:
this post is hilarious. I'm guessing a lot of you haven't posted with sloth (the bulls fan you are arguing with) before, he will never give up saying Rose is the best, as some of us will never give up Oden being better. Best to just let it go imo.
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Nah, we'll let him post his homer posts and then we'll counter with even better homer posts.
 
Just a side note, I find it funny sloth said Durant, Oden, Rose and Beasley, when Mayo is arguably outplaying all of them and imo will be the ROY
 
andalusian said:
So you agree we are better?
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That was a joke.

And I agree that Rose is playing better individually - but is still having a lesser impact. That's why bigs get paid so handsomely - even the average ones, and that's why a big with a lot of potential will always be a more attractive prospect than a small with a lot of potential.

Time will tell which one will be better when all is said and done - but I still think that you would have to be crazy to pass Oden, the prospect, for Rose, the prospect - even when we know that Rose is a great rookie (when not playing with fruit or against Steve Blake, that is).
 
Ed O said:
I am not 100% positive, but I would bet that Chandler didn't draw double-teams at age 20. Hell... he doesn't even draw them today.

Oden, on the other hand, does.

Ed O.
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Other teams didn't have much chance to double team Chandler. He would make an insane athletic move and get a good score. Then Cartwright got fired, and Skiles turned Chandler into shit. Diving into the stands and murdering his back didn't help either, but Skiles was the main dagger.

Tyson Chandler is an example of what you don't want to happen with Oden. Both are similar in that they are absolute freaks body and athleticism wise. Chandler showed a lot of great skill, and had a lot of good games as Oden is doing now at that age.

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Tyson Chandler is still a freak, but when he was young, he had a coaching staff that mishandled his offensive game and forever kept him from being dominant at that, even though Cartwright had him looking like he'd be a fine defensive player. The Blazers have to watch out not to let Oden just become a really good center. They need to develop him to be great like Tim Duncan, Dwight Howard, Shaquille O'neal. Making him into Tyson Chandler would be nice for the team, but with a stacked Lakers team, and a potential host of teams (Chicago (maybe), Miami, or Cleveland) that can stack multiple superstars on their team in 2010, Oden just being a good center that gets you something like 12 points 12 rebounds 2.5 blocks might not be enough, even if Brandon Roy is playing really great, and Aldridge is fine.
 
Денг Гордон said:
They also played the toughest schedule in the NBA so far.
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Yah, those 11 road games, and 9 home games sure are tougher than the 7 home games and 15 road games. And .563 is so much tougher than .522.
 
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