Grade the Blazers' roster changes

[Rastapopoulos]

Zach Lowe and Chris Herring absolutely gushing about our offseason on the Lowe Post.

Says we prolly finish third in the west.

I'll have what they're having. I think we have about equal chance of missing the playoffs altogether as we have of finishing third. This doesn't mean I don't think we got better, just that the West is insane.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

At this point in time the team is average, C, as compared to the rest of the league. Subjectively, as fans we are all caught up in the excitement of the recent activity but lets wait and see how they objectively perform against criteria that addresses weakness's and how they track against other teams, as the season evolves.

By all means, we wouldn't want anyone to get excited - it's extremely imprudent. Perhaps we all should be cleaning out our rain gutters and spend extra time flossing. Why ARE we all here, any way?

 

[wizenheimer]

By all means, we wouldn't want anyone to get excited - it's extremely imprudent. Perhaps we all should be cleaning out our rain gutters and spend extra time flossing. Why ARE we all here, any way?

your process of cleaning your gutters is flawed if you have to floss afterwards

 

[B-Roy]

Just realized we traded two firsts for a defensive wing before - in Gerald Wallace. Hopefully RoCo turns out better than that deal. Or if it doesn't, we flip him for the next Dame.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I have no problem with fans wanting their team to win a championship. I guess I haven't seen the direct impact between what fans want (and how bad the want it) and on court success. I'm not calling out fans for wanting to win titles, I'm defending that it's ok for a fan to think their team is not going to win a title heading into a specific year.

I also don't see how a a fan coming to the conclusion their team isn't the best in the NBA and them being mentally ok when the season ends with them falling short of that title, has any negative impact on the franchise.

I would say the opposite is true, when fans demand wins and contending from a franchise they make despeeate moves sacrificing the long term with no improvement in the short term. The Knicks did this for decades. The Nets with Pierce and Garnett, the Pelicans when they first got Davis.

30 teams are competing for something only one team gets. 96.7% of teams will be disappointed every year.

Add to those low odds the 3.3% is often a repeating team it feels more like the teams that haven't won lately are 99% likely to not win again.

 

[Labinot41]

The fact that melo choose us, the small market Blazers and not the Lakers for example to play for a ring says a lot about him. He's a great guy

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Health is likely the biggest thing. If the Blazers get a full season out of Dame/Nurkic, that likely is as big of a difference over last year as any of the new pieces they have brought in.

• Covington > Ariza. Ariza may actually be the better 1-on-1 defender but Cov is better as a rotation defender and 5 years younger.
• Kanter => Whiteside. Whiteside's stats will dwarf Kanter's, but Enes should fit better as a 'team' guy. Neither defends much away from the basket and neither is very good more than 5' from the hoop on offense. Neither passes much and it's a about a wash as to whom is quicker up the court. Still....
• Jones Jr > Hezonja. Does it really matter that DJJ can't shoot or dribble? Almost anything he does on defense will put him ahead of what Mario did. Dunks will be icing on the cake.
• Giles > ?? Portland really didn't have a 3rd string center last year unless you count parts of seasons from 4/5s Skal and Swanigan. His passing is something this team doesn't have in large supply.
• Hood > Hood. Of course, that comes down to if Rodney can play and return close to the form he had before going down with the achillies.
• Mel0 < Melo. If nothing else, just due to age. Players at 36 don't tend to get better. However, if he can accept a bench role and make use of that in 15-18 minutes versus the 30+ minutes he had to play last year out of necessity (which was far too many), hopefully he can at least be more efficient.

Depth - Better
Defense - Better
Athleticism - Better....just by adding Jones and oddly enough, the oft injured Giles.
Playmaking ability when Dame gets trapped - Uh....well....hmm...

Melo could be better than last year. He played too many minutes last year, with less he could be more productive when on the court and spend more energy on defense. He also could face worse defenders against second units. He got in better shape for the bubble and may continue that. Not saying he will be better as I agree in general you'd expect a slight decline. But these declines don't happen 100% of the time and for one season its possible to go a bit the other direction.

Hood has a chance to be worse than after the injury. If his performance is bellow that of any teammates minutes he replaces he will hurt the team more than if he was out with injury. Hope that's not the case...

 

[BonesJones]

Health is likely the biggest thing. If the Blazers get a full season out of Dame/Nurkic, that likely is as big of a difference over last year as any of the new pieces they have brought in.

• Covington > Ariza. Ariza may actually be the better 1-on-1 defender but Cov is better as a rotation defender and 5 years younger.
• Kanter => Whiteside. Whiteside's stats will dwarf Kanter's, but Enes should fit better as a 'team' guy. Neither defends much away from the basket and neither is very good more than 5' from the hoop on offense. Neither passes much and it's a about a wash as to whom is quicker up the court. Still....
• Jones Jr > Hezonja. Does it really matter that DJJ can't shoot or dribble? Almost anything he does on defense will put him ahead of what Mario did. Dunks will be icing on the cake.
• Giles > ?? Portland really didn't have a 3rd string center last year unless you count parts of seasons from 4/5s Skal and Swanigan. His passing is something this team doesn't have in large supply.
• Hood > Hood. Of course, that comes down to if Rodney can play and return close to the form he had before going down with the achillies.
• Mel0 < Melo. If nothing else, just due to age. Players at 36 don't tend to get better. However, if he can accept a bench role and make use of that in 15-18 minutes versus the 30+ minutes he had to play last year out of necessity (which was far too many), hopefully he can at least be more efficient.

Depth - Better
Defense - Better
Athleticism - Better....just by adding Jones and oddly enough, the oft injured Giles.
Playmaking ability when Dame gets trapped - Uh....well....hmm...

Coaching - Hopefully better

 

[BonesJones]

I would say the opposite is true, when fans demand wins and contending from a franchise they make despeeate moves sacrificing the long term with no improvement in the short term. The Knicks did this for decades. The Nets with Pierce and Garnett, the Pelicans when they first got Davis.

30 teams are competing for something only one team gets. 96.7% of teams will be disappointed every year.

Add to those low odds the 3.3% is often a repeating team it feels more like the teams that haven't won lately are 99% likely to not win again.

Thank god the organization doesnt look at things this way.

More than half the teams on the league arent actively trying their best to build a contender. They're not just as likely to win a championship as a team that is.

Combine that with being 1 of 7 teams with a top 8 player, the odds should go up even more.

Couple that with the potential that if were healthy, some teams will fall off due to injury. Ofds go up even more.

Couple that with us having potentially a top 3 bench in the league, odds go up even more.

Championship should be the goal.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I have to disagree here. He strikes me as Aminu II at PF. But then I imagine the plan is to have Jones and Covington as the starting forwards and they be pretty switchable. I don't see Jones as strong enough to handle most PFs, though.

Jones will be fine at PF. Its not 1997 where you have bruising PF pushing guys around.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Thank god the organization doesnt look at things this way.

More than half the teams on the league arent actively trying their best to build a contender. They're not just as likely to win a championship as a team that is.

Combine that with being 1 of 7 teams with a top 8 player, the odds should go up even more.

Couple that with the potential that if were healthy, some teams will fall off due to injury. Ofds go up even more.

Couple that with us having potentially a top 3 bench in the league, odds go up even more.

Championship should be the goal.

Your right, factoring all of that the Blazers odds are less than 1 out of 30.

If you are certain its better put your money where your mouth is, you can bet on the Blazers to win with better than 1 in 30 odds.

 

[BonesJones]

Your right, factoring all of that the Blazers odds are less than 1 out of 30.

If you are certain its better put your money where your mouth is, you can bet on the Blazers to win with better than 1 in 30 odds.

My whole point is that we shouldnt have the mindset of "The odds are so steep, it's too hard!". We should try everything to maximize those odds no matter how tall because we already have some things in our favor, instead of rolling over and being content with never fully trying because the odds are too steep.

I dont know why betting money came into this conversation.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

My whole point is that we shouldnt have the mindset of "The odds are so steep, it's too hard!". We should try everything to maximize those odds no matter how tall because we already have some things in our favor, instead of rolling over and being content with never fully trying because the odds are too steep.

I dont know why betting money came into this conversation.

I guess my response depends on your definition of we and what action your calling for.

By we do you mean the team management or fans pressure? I think management should try and is trying to make moves to contend.

But should they trade every future unprotected pick possible to maxize the talent now? Id say no at this time. We still don't know how the changes already made will translate on the court.

I dont see how fans demanding extra pressure or expecting better results helps anything.

The Blazers management is already trying to win, and balancing the risk of losing or forgoing future assets to improve the presence.

As another poster said, I dont see how fan pressure has ever helped.

 

[BonesJones]

I guess my response depends on your definition of we and what action your calling for.

By we do you mean the team management or fans pressure? I think management should try and is trying to make moves to contend.

But should they trade every future unprotected pick possible to maxize the talent now? Id say no at this time. We still don't know how the changes already made will translate on the court.

I dont see how fans demanding extra pressure or expecting better results helps anything.

The Blazers management is already trying to win, and balancing the risk of losing or forgoing future assets to improve the presence.

As another poster said, I dont see how fan pressure has ever helped.

Not trying to say it could or couldn't help, just talking about the mindset in general.

 

[e_blazer]

A few points about the roster moves as they relate to this particular Covid-impacted season:

1. Continuity. It’s a short season with a shortened preseason. The fact that the core of the roster is familiar with Stotts’s system is going to be a help as opposed to teams with major changes in star players or coaching.

2. Depth. As we’re seeing in the NFL, playing outside of a bubble environment means having to deal with players unable to play because of positive testing results or even exposure to someone who has tested positive. The Blazers’ deep roster puts them in a better position to deal with those issues than thinner teams.

3. Trade flexibility. The Blazers have lots of quality players on affordable contracts. If the opportunity arises come the deadline, the Blazers are in a position to make attractive offers for available star players.

In my opinion, Olshey knocked it out of the park this year. (Forgive the mixed sports metaphor).

 

[wizenheimer]

Just realized we traded two firsts for a defensive wing before - in Gerald Wallace. Hopefully RoCo turns out better than that deal. Or if it doesn't, we flip him for the next Dame.

something else: at the time of the Wallace trade, it was 5 months before he turned 29. At the time of the Covington trade, it was 1 month before he turns 30. Hopefully, RoCo ages a lot better than Wallace

 

[Wizard Mentor]

something else: at the time of the Wallace trade, it was 5 months before he turned 29. At the time of the Covington trade, it was 1 month before he turns 30. Hopefully, RoCo ages a lot better than Wallace

Hey, not everyone liked the Wallace trade:

 

[wizenheimer]

3. Trade flexibility. The Blazers have lots of quality players on affordable contracts. If the opportunity arises come the deadline, the Blazers are in a position to make attractive offers for available star players.

I don't believe the flexibility is as good as you say, especially when it comes to trading for stars

for one thing, they are hard-capped and the franchise is obviously determined to avoid luxury tax. So the balance of outgoing/incoming salary is pretty much one-way for Portland

but an even bigger impediment is Portland can't trade any future 1st round picks this year. That puts them at a serious leverage disadvantage bidding against other teams because if a team is dumping a star they almost always want draft compensation

 

[Hoopguru]

We must allow DJJ to be himself and not try and make him a player he's not. Gifted players are often pushed in a direction of their talents by coaches, and they end up doing something we or the coaches believe they should do instead of what they want to do. Especially very athletic leapers like DJJ. Harkless never seemed to enjoy himself on the court as he was the 4th 5th option and mostly waiting in the corner for a three. He once said he got bored with with that role if he was involved early in a game and able to take the ball to the hoop or even iso he didnt get stagnant.
DJJ commented that "if they let me do what I do" Im coming. I think it was in reference to an offer form Sac Town.
I bet he feels the same here.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

 

[Big Dog]

Not trying to say it could or couldn't help, just talking about the mindset in general.

How do we even know what the mindset is?
As far as i know nobody in this forum is at practice or in team meetings.

 

[Tince]

Great and sobering tweet. This is why I don't think I'm out-of-line when I say I don't expect us to get to the WCF. We haven't put the top end talent around Dame that is often required to win and at Dame's height, he's not going to be able to do it on his own.

 

[Tince]

How do we even know what the mindset is?
As far as i know nobody in this forum is at practice or in team meetings.

Excellent point. I get the feeling some people think that if fans don't think their team will win the NBA championship that the players on the team will adopt that same mindset. There is zero evidence that fans being overly optimistic or pessimistic have any impact on outcomes, yet some people seem to get so upset for what a 3rd party thinks.

 

[Big Dog]

Excellent point. I get the feeling some people think that is fans don't think their team will win the NBA championship that the players on the team will adopt that same mindset. There is zero evidence that fans being overly optimistic or pessimistic have any impact on outcomes, yet some people seem to get so upset for what a 3rd party thinks.

With a leader like Lillard, no way this team has a poor mindset.

 

[Natebishop3]

Great and sobering tweet. This is why I don't think I'm out-of-line when I say I don't expect us to get to the WCF. We haven't put the top end talent around Dame that is often required to win and at Dame's height, he's not going to be able to do it on his own.

Neil and Stotts suck.

 

[Tince]

Neil and Stotts suck.

One of those two is responsible for acquiring coaches and players.

How many times has Olshey brought in a player that was in those categories the previous season and/or how many players have left Stotts only to jump into one of those categories the next season?

Doesn't seem like the different coaching is making these players jump in or out of these catgories.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I don't believe the flexibility is as good as you say, especially when it comes to trading for stars

for one thing, they are hard-capped and the franchise is obviously determined to avoid luxury tax. So the balance of outgoing/incoming salary is pretty much one-way for Portland

but an even bigger impediment is Portland can't trade any future 1st round picks this year. That puts them at a serious leverage disadvantage bidding against other teams because if a team is dumping a star they almost always want draft compensation

I dont understand your draft pick argument. The Blazers can trade picks for 7 years, so even though the 2021 pick is gone they could trade 3 of the following six years picks and swap options on the other 3 years so effectively 6 picks. Trade partners prefer picks in the future when the current talent (Dame) etc is gone increasing the chance of a higher draft pick.

 

[BonesJones]

I dont understand your draft pick argument. The Blazers can trade picks for 7 years, so even though the 2021 pick is gone they could trade 3 of the following six years picks and swap options on the other 3 years so effectively 6 picks. Trade partners prefer picks in the future when the current talent (Dame) etc is gone increasing the chance of a higher draft pick.

No we can't. That 2021 pick is projected through several years.

 

[BonesJones]

How do we even know what the mindset is?
As far as i know nobody in this forum is at practice or in team meetings.

When did I ever say what the players or coaches specific mindset is? I didn't.

 

[wizenheimer]

I dont understand your draft pick argument. The Blazers can trade picks for 7 years, so even though the 2021 pick is gone they could trade 3 of the following six years picks and swap options on the other 3 years so effectively 6 picks. Trade partners prefer picks in the future when the current talent (Dame) etc is gone increasing the chance of a higher draft pick.

like Bones said, you're wrong about Portland's draft pick situation

the 2021 is lottery protected and if 2021 is not conveyed the same protection rolls over till the next draft. IIRC, this obligation lasts till 2027, which I believe (might be wrong) is the limit of future pick trades

so, in terms of assets Portland has at their disposal this season, they have no 1sts to offer because of the Septien rule

chances are the Blazers make the playoffs this season; so they'd send the 2021 first to Houston. Then, they'd have future 1sts to bargain with. But not till then