Greg Oden is the next "Rik Smits or Z"??

[KingSpeed]

That's what David Aldridge just said on NBATV. Said we'd be thrilled if we had the next Rik Smits. Look, I love Rik Smits, but I thought we were getting the next Shaq/DRob/Hakeem.

Props to Greg for a good game tonight.

 

[PapaG]

That's what David Aldridge just said on NBATV. Said we'd be thrilled if we had the next Rik Smits. Look, I love Rik Smits, but I thought we were getting the next Shaq/DRob/Hakeem.

Props to Greg for a good game tonight.

Rik Smits was a spot-up shooter who was allergic to the paint and to rebounding. David Aldridge doesn't have any idea what he is talking about. I can't think of many centers that are less like Oden than Rik Smits. Oden will likely pass Smits career high season in rebound average this year while being plagued by fouls.

 

[retroblazers]

he might be talking about centers that were injury prone early, but got over that and developed into a good player. but i didn't see his talk so who knows. but he's nothing game wise to either of those guys

 

[ebott]

All those guys have in common is that they were/are injury prone.

 

[Pinwheel1]

If someone couldn't see the value of Greg Oden, by watching tonights game ,then I have to question that person's Basketball IQ.

 

[RoyToy]

To get the comparisons straight, Oden was compared to David Robinson/Bill Russell. Not Hakeem and Shaq.

Offensively he'll never touch Hakeem, and there will only ever be one Shaq.

 

[Nikolokolus]

If someone couldn't see the value of Greg Oden, by watching tonights game ,then I have to question that person's Basketball IQ.

take away the 3 quick fouls he picked up in two minutes of the first half and he was able to go 23 minutes picking up 2 and was absolutely asserting himself at both ends of the floor; it sucks to lose, but it sure was nice to see Greg step into the breach and be a difference maker.

 

[Pinwheel1]

take away the 3 quick fouls he picked up in two minutes of the first half and he was able to go 23 minutes picking up 2 and was absolutely asserting himself at both ends of the floor; it sucks to lose, but it sure was nice to see Greg step into the breach and be a difference maker.

If we win in regulation on his dunk, that's all we would be talking about.

 

[rocketeer]

yao was compared to smits for years. doesn't seem to have hurt him any.

 

[B-Roy]

He's neither.

Props to him for having a nice game and props to Nate for keeping him in.

 

[Ed O]

he might be talking about centers that were injury prone early, but got over that and developed into a good player. but i didn't see his talk so who knows. but he's nothing game wise to either of those guys

I would like to think that's what he meant, but if he did he's mistaken about Smits. He played in 164 regular season games his first two seasons and didn't miss more than 8 games in a season until he was 29.

Without context, it's tough to say what he was talking about. He might be talking about a borderline all-star player right below the top tier centers.

The Blazers would not (and should not) be delighted if that's what Oden is. The talk of Bowie is just talk, and the expectations/hops for Oden should still be a top 2 or 3 center in the NBA, not a top 2 or 3 center in a division.

Ed O.

 

[alex42083]

Seeing Greg out there tonight scrap and fight and show some emotion gave me some consolation with the loss. He looked REAL good for just his third game back. And it was even night and day for him from the first and second half.

In the first half, he was a little hesitant and wanted to take charges. Second half, he wanted to block all that crap coming in. THAT is what I loved seeing. Props to G.O.!
This game cements my feelings that this guy is going to be a hell of a player someday for us.

 

[handiman]

It's a skin color thing. Oh, wait...

 

[Kaydow]

That's what David Aldridge just said on NBATV. Said we'd be thrilled if we had the next Rik Smits. Look, I love Rik Smits, but I thought we were getting the next Shaq/DRob/Hakeem.

Props to Greg for a good game tonight.

Smits never averaged more than 7 rebounds/game. Greg is doing that this year in limited minutes. Smits was an 80% FT guy with a soft touch who couldn't bang his way out of a paper bag. There is NO part of Rik Smits game that resembles GO.

Greg isn't going to be a Shaq/DRob/Hakeem type player. He's nowhere near as dynamic/fluid as those guys. I think if he stays healthy he could be a Mutombo like presence. Maybe a tad more of an offensive threat. Is that so bad? Mutombo was a 13/11/4 guy in his 1st 10 years, and he was a terror to opposing players defensively. That would be great IMO. While I'd like to see Greg score 15-17 PPG, I'd settle for less if he can dominate at the other end like Dikembe did.

 

[LittleAlex]

Smits never averaged more than 7 rebounds/game. Greg is doing that this year in limited minutes. Smits was an 80% FT guy with a soft touch who couldn't bang his way out of a paper bag. There is NO part of Rik Smits game that resembles GO.

Greg isn't going to be a Shaq/DRob/Hakeem type player. He's nowhere near as dynamic/fluid as those guys. I think if he stays healthy he could be a Mutombo like presence. Maybe a tad more of an offensive threat. Is that so bad? Mutombo was a 13/11/4 guy in his 1st 10 years, and he was a terror to opposing players defensively. That would be great IMO. While I'd like to see Greg score 15-17 PPG, I'd settle for less if he can dominate at the other end like Dikembe did.

If he stays healthy Greg will be a Nate Thurmond type center and average around 15/15/2 for his career. That was good enough to get Nate in the Hall of Fame so I figure that would be just fine.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Dumbest comparison ever. They are all tall. That's about where similaities between Oden, Smits and Z end. Totally different players, totally different styles. Oden is already a better defender and better rebounder than Smits or Z. He's a back to the basket banger who outmuscles and overpowers his opponents - not a freakishly tall (7'3" - 7'4") softy who floats on the perimeter and knocks down flat- footed jumpers.

Makes me wonder:

a) what the heck was the point Aldridge was trying to make
b) what the heck he was smoking at the time

BNM

 

[mook]

Greg isn't going to be a Shaq/DRob/Hakeem type player. He's nowhere near as dynamic/fluid as those guys. I think if he stays healthy he could be a Mutombo like presence. Maybe a tad more of an offensive threat. Is that so bad? Mutombo was a 13/11/4 guy in his 1st 10 years, and he was a terror to opposing players defensively. That would be great IMO. While I'd like to see Greg score 15-17 PPG, I'd settle for less if he can dominate at the other end like Dikembe did.

I was a huge fan of Mutombo, but frankly there isn't much similarity. Deke used excellent timing and enormous length to intimidate on defense and nab rebounds. Beyond tip-ins, his offense was confined to exactly one move--a rolling right hook shot.

Oden's game is predicated on raw physical force. He's much stronger than Deke ever was, and much quicker. He doesn't seem quite as long or have nearly the timing of Mutombo, but he makes up for it with that raw power. He shoves people around to get the loose ball, and he is so strong that it's tough to make him bobble it.

Thanks to that power, Oden is also a threat to dunk or draw free throws every single time he has the ball near the hoop. Mutombo was mostly a threat to throw up that ugly hook shot or pass it out.

There's no exact comparison, but I'd say the low-side of my expectations for him is an in-his-prime Alonzo Mourning. Not as offensively gifted or big as Shaq, but a bruiser underneath who you have to plan around.

Mourning is on a higher tier than Smits, but not a Robinson/Duncan/Shaq-like guy. Right around a Mutombo/Sabonis (in Portland) caliber of guy, with different skill sets.

 

[Foulzilla]

I suspect he meant caliber of big man, not style. As in, he thinks Oden will be a good starter with a few All Star appearances, but not a Hall of Famer. There's clearly very little in common as far as style goes, and Aldridge tends to know his stuff, so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

To get the comparisons straight, Oden was compared to David Robinson/Bill Russell. Not Hakeem and Shaq.

Offensively he'll never touch Hakeem, and there will only ever be one Shaq.

I've always felt he was akin to Patrick Ewing.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I suspect he meant caliber of big man, not style. As in, he thinks Oden will be a good starter with a few All Star appearances, but not a Hall of Famer. There's clearly very little in common as far as style goes, and Aldridge tends to know his stuff, so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here.

Then why not compare him to other players of similar calibre AND similar style? Ben Wallace comes immediately to mind (great rebounder, great interior defender, limited offense), but I think Oden will be better offensively. Wes Unseld is another example of a great rebounder and defender with limited offensive ability. Of course, Wes won MVP his rookie season (despite averaging only 13.8 PPG). Obviously, Oden is not having an MVP type rookie year, but his game reminds me of a bigger version of Unseld in the way he has a huge impact on the game at both ends without scoring 20 PPG.

Heck, even Bill Walton is a better comparison than Smits and Z. Granted Walton is in the Hall of Fame, but that's as much for his college career as his limited days in the NBA. I see Oden in his prime putting up similar numbers to Walton in his (brief) heyday. Something in the neighborhood of 18 ppg, 13 rpg, 2.5 bpg - although I don't see Oden being nearly as good a passer as Walton was.

Ultimately, I think Oden will fall somewhere in the Ben Wallace, Wes Unseld, Bill Walton spectrum - a great rebounder, game changing interior defender and solid offensive force in the low post. Oh, and like those three, he will win an NBA title - actually, I think he'll end his career with more titles than any of those three - perhaps even as many as those three combined.

BNM

 

[Rastapopoulos]

The obvious similarity with Z is missing his whole rookie season with an injury (Z is ahead of Oden in the second year - he played all 82, but then only played 5 in his third year, at which point most people thought he was essentially done), and perhaps the intended similarity with Smits is that Smits was widely viewed as a bust early on (especially for someone taken #2) because everybody kept telling him to put on weight and his body couldn't take it. Finally somebody (Larry Brown?) told him instead to lose weight for extra mobility and he had a very nice career thereafter. Of course Smits's game was completely different from Oden's (jump-shooter, not much of a shot-blocker or rebounder).

I still don't know what to think of Oden. Obviously he can be a dominant force on defense - maybe Mutombo-esque (although Mutombo blocks shots without jumping and thus is less easy to pump-fake) and he's still very raw on offense. Maybe a young Dwight Howard? He's bigger but probably (after surgery) less athletic. But Howard is also fairly clumsy on offense.

The hopeful comparisons are Ewing and Duncan. Both of them were VERY awkward when they were starting out, but had their entire college careers to work on their games. So I'm plumping for a more athletic (better-looking) Ewing.

 

[Ed O]

Another potential similarity (although this would be a weird reason to make the comparison): from the free throw line. Oden is struggling a bit there so far, but Smits shot over 77% from the line for his career and Z is over 78%.

That's pretty good for big men, and I think Oden can get there, too.

I know I'm stretching things, though, to make the comparison make sense...

Ed O.

 

[MrJayremmie]

He has shown a bunch of promise...

Right now, if he can correct these 2 things by the end of the year... foul trouble and keeping his energy high throughout the game (like he has been recently, specially that 1st game back vs Indiana)

And then if he doesn't have major injuries, I think he can easily turn into a top 3 center in the league and a 17ppg, 11rpg, 2bpg within probably 3 years, imo. And I also don't think that is his ceiling... especially not from the things we've seen from him this year (albeit inconsistant)

 

[alex42083]

I'd like to see Greg put a little more trust in his jumper. I think I've seen him use it once, and he made it against Miami at home earlier this year. He's got a nice soft touch at the free-throw line. Right now, it's either a jump hook with either hand or a dunk.

Hopefully he can develop something like that out to 10-12 feet. That'd make him that much more of a beast if teams have to guard against it. But I guess it's small steps at a time.

And I think it's wayyy too early to tell what type of career Greg will have, and who he'll be like. But after last night, I'm very encouraged.

 

[MARIS61]

...and there will only ever be one Shaq.

Let's hope so, because Shaq 's career has been 100% dependent on refs allowing him to play like a thug with no fear of being called for the basic fouls which limit all other player's games.

No player in the history of the game has ever succeeded with so few skills and so little talent.

In a league reffed by machines, Shaq would be ranked just ahead of Mark Eaton, and have the same number of rings.

 

[MARIS61]

Greg will be remembered as one of Portland's Big 3 Centers, along with Bill and Sabas.

 

[Minstrel]

Greg isn't going to be a Shaq/DRob/Hakeem type player. He's nowhere near as dynamic/fluid as those guys.

One can never project a player among the several greatest ever, but I don't think it's true that he's nowhere near as dynamic/fluid, making such a career impossible. His athleticism is spectacular...it simply hasn't been on display this season due to his recovery from microfracture surgery. His pre-draft numbers were remarkable. They compared well to Howard, despite Oden being much larger than Howard was when Howard was drafted.

One can already see plenty of flashes of remarkable dynamicism from Oden. He simply doesn't have it all the time. Supposedly, he will next season.

I think if he stays healthy he could be a Mutombo like presence. Maybe a tad more of an offensive threat. Is that so bad?

It won't be bad, no, but I think you're selling Oden's talent short. Oden is already showing more, offensively, than Mutombo did in his prime, and Oden is still very raw. I think Oden has the potential to be a Defensive Player Of The Year force on the defensive end and an efficient offensive force akin to Tim Duncan. Just with greater size and strength.

 

[Rodolfo]

He has shown a bunch of promise...

Right now, if he can correct these 2 things by the end of the year... foul trouble and keeping his energy high throughout the game (like he has been recently, specially that 1st game back vs Indiana)

And then if he doesn't have major injuries, I think he can easily turn into a top 3 center in the league and a 17ppg, 11rpg, 2bpg within probably 3 years, imo. And I also don't think that is his ceiling... especially not from the things we've seen from him this year (albeit inconsistant)

I think Greg can easily be 17/12/2 next year. You get the guy 30-35 min. and I don't think those numbers are a problem. Improving with the foul trouble is going to happen next season for sure. Injuries though are always going to be a question mark. Let's hope for the best.

 

[KingSpeed]

he might be talking about centers that were injury prone early, but got over that and developed into a good player.

That's what he meant.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I'm hoping for Mutombo/Mourning level. I'm expecting Dale Davis.