Guidelines for the next 2 night!!!!!!!!!!

[ironcrotch]

uh oh looks like Boozer hurt his ribs and left the game vs the Warriors

 

[BlazerBenner]

we lost so bad they counted two extra games

Two Preseason games they dominated us in those, too.

 

[BlazerBenner]

So if Denver beats PHX........ we CAN'T play PHX or UTAH!

So, if Denver wins tonight, we play Denver if we beat Golden State, which we should. That seems pretty clearcut. (unless we lose to Golden State and San Antonio wins out, then we play Dallas.


Rooting for Phoenix to win out, so we can play Phoenix!!!!

 

[BlazerBenner]

My guess is Denver/PHX is one hell of a game.

Anytime I can listen to Doug Collins or Hubie Brown, I'm going to enjoy the game. (Or, Steve Jones, but I won't open that can of worms.)

 

[BlazerBenner]

I agree but I am not a big fan of the NBA. I follow it so close because thats the only sport our city has but if we did not have the Blazers I would not be able to follow the NBA and its pathetic officiating and the way the sport is run. I need a little incentive to watch random NBA games over baseball (my favorite sport) the last few games of the regular season. I would puke to have to watch the Mariners play tonight. I wish my Cardinals games were shown out here, MLB.tv FTW

I'm with you there, but I do enjoy contests where Collins or Hubie Brown are doing the commentary. They are both so accurate and just in their assessments. In August of 2007, I spent a "series" in St. Louis to watch the REDS and Cards. Had one heck of a time. The new Busch was beautiful. (Sorry, but I'm a REDS' fan.)

 

[BlazerBenner]

****************UPDATED******************

Game

...............SA PHO
............./
UTH PHO
.............\
...............DAL UTH

Winner -> Seed/Wins


UTH PHO DAL PHO -> 2.DAL 55-27, 3.PHO 54-28, 4.DEN 53-29, 5.UTH 53-29
UTH PHO SA PHO -> 2.DAL 54-28, 3.PHO 54-28, 4.DEN 53-29, 5.UTH 53-29
UTH PHO DAL UTH -> 2.DAL 55-27, 3.UTH 54-28, 4.PHO 53-29, 5.DEN 53-29
UTH PHO SA UTH -> 2.UTH 54-28, 3.DAL 54-28, 4.PHO 53-29, 5.DEN 53-29

 

[BGrantFan]

I created this chart, which I hope will clear things up for you all.

EDIT - sorry, but really pay attention to the grays. They tell the story.

 

[BlazerBenner]

****************UPDATED******************

Game

...............SA PHO
............./
UTH PHO
.............\
...............DAL UTH

Winner -> Seed/Wins


UTH PHO DAL PHO -> 2.DAL 55-27, 3.PHO 54-28, 4.DEN 53-29, 5.UTH 53-29
UTH PHO SA PHO -> 2.DAL 54-28, 3.PHO 54-28, 4.DEN 53-29, 5.UTH 53-29
UTH PHO DAL UTH -> 2.DAL 55-27, 3.UTH 54-28, 4.PHO 53-29, 5.DEN 53-29
UTH PHO SA UTH -> 2.UTH 54-28, 3.DAL 54-28, 4.PHO 53-29, 5.DEN 53-29

 

[TripTango]

Actual percentages for these outcomes are of course dependant on the odds for the games themselves, but it's not too hard to calculate if you have those. I couldn't find game probabilities out there on the interwebz, and I'm not sure how to convert betting lines... Considering how evenly matched all the teams involved are, I just gave each home team a 55% likelihood of winning. Probably too conservative for PHX @ UTA, but oh well.

With this simple input, it's not too hard to get likelihoods for all 8 possible W/L scenarios by multiplying the odds of three given teams winning percentages. Then these can be summed up based on the initial post to get final scenario odds.

With my simplified percentages, I got:

Portland vs. Phoenix: 25%
Portland vs. Utah: 52%
Portland vs. Dallas: 23%

The bottom line here is that we really need Phoenix to win if we don't want to get Utah. Almost every scenario involving a Utah win ends up with us facing them in the postseason, which is why this is the most likely outcome.

 

[THE HCP]

I remember last season we had the smallest % of a chance to play the Rockets, hope we do better this year.

 

[TripTango]

Have we faced Utah with this current lineup yet? Didn't we finish our series with them pretty early in the season?

 

[THE HCP]

I don't think we had Camby yet.

 

[RoyToy]

The Blazers played the Jazz one game with Camby.

They were blowing the Jazz out by 25 in the 3rd and then the Jazz came back and won the game.

 

[THE HCP]

Oops!

 

[TripTango]

The Blazers played the Jazz one game with Camby.

They were blowing the Jazz out by 25 in the 3rd and then the Jazz came back and won the game.

Oh yeah... THAT game. =p