Have we changed our minds about a "win now" trade?

[Blazers1977]

relative return.
If still trying to win, then every game they lose, they must work that much harder just to get back to where they were before they lost.

let me explain in business terms.

lets say my company makes 10% profit on selling a product. We sell the product at $10 a pc and we sell in 1000pc cases. So each case is $10,000.
The profit is $1000.00 or the gain.

now lets saw my company scrapped a case. We now have to sell 10 more cases just to make up the $10,000 for the one case. Thats JUST to get back to even. No money gained. If the Blazers really still want to win and be relevant in the playoffs, every game is a must win game at this point. They have to go on a six game win streak just to get back to par. By then a quarter of the season is over.

Do you think we can go on a six game win streak?
Its possible but clips on the road and sac will be tough.
Anyhow, i believe your logic to be flawed, unless you are cool with slithering into a 7 or 8 seed and getting stomped in the first round and losing out on a lottery pick in the process.

me? Not so much...

that business analogy is invalid lol but ok. Businesses have cash flow problems. There is no analogy to cash flow in NBA win%

your argument is literally just “if we lose next game, that means we have another loss on our record! That means we will have to win more games to have won more games than we lost!!!”

Yeah... that still doesn’t make either of these next two games a “must win.” That’s just a term that hack announcers throw around to make games seem more interesting than they are. We could very plausibly lose these next 2 games and still wind up with a top 4 seed when we get our players back from injuy. What You’re saying isn’t logical, it’s all emotion-based. Of course everyone doesn’t want to lose next game, that doesn’t mean we MUST win in any sense.

You guys are panicking, again. We’re not even 1/5 of the way through the season. Everything you’re saying is hyperbolic.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

that business analogy is invalid lol but ok. Businesses have cash flow problems. There is no analogy to cash flow in NBA win%

your argument is literally just “if we lose next game, that means we have another loss on our record! That means we will have to win more games to have won more games than we lost!!!”

Yeah... that still doesn’t make either of these next two games a “must win.” That’s just a term that hack announcers throw around to make games seem more interesting than they are. We could easily lose these next 2 games and still wind up with a top 4 seed. What You’re saying isn’t logical, it’s all emotion-based. Of course everyone doesn’t want to lose next game, that doesn’t mean we MUST win in any sense.

You guys are panicking, again. We’re not even 1/5 of the way through the season. Everything you’re saying is hyperbolic.

If the Blazers want to end the season with only 11 losses than tonight's game is a must-win.

 

[kjironman1]

If the Blazers want to end the season with only 11 losses than tonight's game is a must-win.

Ah I figure they will lose at least 4 more games. 15 losses seems like a good season.

 

[BonesJones]

I’m sure you can dig up some plays where he does some good things. I’m even more certain I can dig up twice as many that have him behind on rotations (slow), getting pushed around (weak), and out of position (confused). So maybe he actually is how he seems to me? Just a thought?

DRtg is 6 points better with him on the floor.
58 TS%
11+ Rebounds Per 36
He can shoot, finish, play defense, and rebound.

Where does he struggle?

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

DRtg is 6 points better with him on the floor.
58 TS%
11+ Rebounds Per 36
He can shoot, finish, play defense, and rebound.

Where does he struggle?

Skal's advanced stats are fine. However, rebounding we'll use his TRB% has him ranked 51st in between Moe Wagner and Bobby Portis, so I guess I'd say an ok... (According to RealGM).
His defense Rating according to NBA.com is ranked 245th in the NBA.

I think he's got a really smooth jumper and could help stretch defenses out, and I think he has the potential to get a lot better, but I also don't think right now today he's better than Whiteside. I'm not convinced he's ready to be a starter either. I think trading WS for a forward would just shift the hole on the team from Forward to Center. They seem to have an abundance of smallerish guards, I think they should move Baze for a bigger forward. I also think they should play WS and Skal together more.

 

[kjironman1]

DRtg is 6 points better with him on the floor.
58 TS%
11+ Rebounds Per 36
He can shoot, finish, play defense, and rebound.

Where does he struggle?

Advanced stats against seconds and thirds. Sure. Now ya gonna have some more after this game when he lines up against Zizic. Seriously or are you gonna think twice when Thompson handles him? As i understand Whiteside is out. So we will see right?

 

[BonesJones]

Advanced stats against seconds and thirds. Sure. Now ya gonna have some more after this game when he lines up against Zizic. Seriously or are you gonna think twice when Thompson handles him? As i understand Whiteside is out. So we will see right?

Those stats arent advanced. He's also playing with 2nd and 3rds. Dude could be a fine two month stopgap at C to help us upgrade elsewhere.

 

[BonesJones]

Skal's advanced stats are fine. However, rebounding we'll use his TRB% has him ranked 51st in between Moe Wagner and Bobby Portis, so I guess I'd say an ok... (According to RealGM).
His defense Rating according to NBA.com is ranked 245th in the NBA.

I think he's got a really smooth jumper and could help stretch defenses out, and I think he has the potential to get a lot better, but I also don't think right now today he's better than Whiteside. I'm not convinced he's ready to be a starter either. I think trading WS for a forward would just shift the hole on the team from Forward to Center. They seem to have an abundance of smallerish guards, I think they should move Baze for a bigger forward. I also think they should play WS and Skal together more.

He's not better than Whiteside, but thats not the debate.

 

[Orion Bailey]

that business analogy is invalid lol but ok. Businesses have cash flow problems. There is no analogy to cash flow in NBA win%

your argument is literally just “if we lose next game, that means we have another loss on our record! That means we will have to win more games to have won more games than we lost!!!”

Yeah... that still doesn’t make either of these next two games a “must win.” That’s just a term that hack announcers throw around to make games seem more interesting than they are. We could very plausibly lose these next 2 games and still wind up with a top 4 seed when we get our players back from injuy. What You’re saying isn’t logical, it’s all emotion-based. Of course everyone doesn’t want to lose next game, that doesn’t mean we MUST win in any sense.

You guys are panicking, again. We’re not even 1/5 of the way through the season. Everything you’re saying is hyperbolic.

May i ask what you do for a living?

the business analogy is 100% valid and cash flow problems have nothing to do with it.
However since you brought it up, every team has cash flow problems because of the cap....

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

He's not better than Whiteside, but thats not the debate.

I realize that I'm just saying I think he's not close enough that trading whiteside makes sense, unless they have another Starter lined up. I guess that's where we disagree you think (if I'm reading this right) that Skal is good enough that trading WS for a Forward Skal would have C covered. I don't think Skal is ready for that, I think it would just move where the hole in the roster is at, at least until Zach / Nurk are healthy.

 

[kjironman1]

Those stats arent advanced. He's also playing with 2nd and 3rds. Dude could be a fine two month stopgap at C to help us upgrade elsewhere.

True shooting percentage is considered advanced.

 

[BonesJones]

True shooting percentage is considered advanced.

Ive heard people say it is and isnt. Regardless, it's the best measure of overall efficiency.

 

[Blazers1977]

May i ask what you do for a living?

the business analogy is 100% valid and cash flow problems have nothing to do with it.
However since you brought it up, every team has cash flow problems because of the cap....

How does our cap have anything to do with how many games we win / if we win our upcoming games? What?

it’s not a valid analogy. Games are worth exactly one game no matter if we win them tomorrow or a day before the last game of the season. Money in a business can create additional money if you get it sooner than later via investments.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Here's a trade I would absolutely get behind (mainly because I just can't stand watching Bazemore). I was reminded of Iggy because it was just reported that Memphis have reiterated that they are not going to buy him out, so if teams like the Lakers want him they're going to have to give something up. I dunno if this is enough: I'm banking on them wanting to dump Josh Jackson's salary, but apparently he's doing well in the G-League, so...

 

[BigGameDamian]

Here's a trade I would absolutely get behind (mainly because I just can't stand watching Bazemore). I was reminded of Iggy because it was just reported that Memphis have reiterated that they are not going to buy him out, so if teams like the Lakers want him they're going to have to give something up. I dunno if this is enough: I'm banking on them wanting to dump Josh Jackson's salary, but apparently he's doing well in the G-League, so...

View attachment 28662

No way Neil trades for a guy like Josh Jackson.

 

[BigGameDamian]

 

[TBpup]

Bigger picture, I'm absolutely against a 'Win now' trade. Everything this season needs to be for the future and that future could easily be as soon as next year. Last season the Blazers finished with a 53-29 record, a .646 winning percentage. Currently, the Blazers are 5-12 with a .294 winning percentage.

To get to just 50 wins, they would have to go 45-20 the rest of the season (.692) and that would put them squarely in the #7 spot...historical cannon fodder territory with a Draft pick in June around #18-20. It's possible that can be done. Nick Nurse has the Raptors at a .733 winning percentage after losing Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard and significant rotation player Danny Green in the off-season. But then he has the advantage of never having been an NBA coach before.

So the Blazers would have to go the rest of the year with a higher winning percentage than the Rockets and Clippers have right now....just to get to the #7 spot.

 

[kjironman1]

Bigger picture, I'm absolutely against a 'Win now' trade. Everything this season needs to be for the future and that future could easily be as soon as next year. Last season the Blazers finished with a 53-29 record, a .646 winning percentage. Currently, the Blazers are 5-12 with a .294 winning percentage.

To get to just 50 wins, they would have to go 45-20 the rest of the season (.692) and that would put them squarely in the #7 spot...historical cannon fodder territory with a Draft pick in June around #18-20. It's possible that can be done. Nick Nurse has the Raptors at a .733 winning percentage after losing Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard and significant rotation player Danny Green in the off-season. But then he has the advantage of never having been an NBA coach before.

So the Blazers would have to go the rest of the year with a higher winning percentage than the Rockets and Clippers have right now....just to get to the #7 spot.

On the flip side of this. If they start playing well enough to go 45-20 the rest of the way. This team would be the best 7th seed in history and they would not be considered "Cannon Fodder" by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[TBpup]

On the flip side of this. If they start playing well enough to go 45-20 the rest of the way. This team would be the best 7th seed in history and they would not be considered "Cannon Fodder" by any stretch of the imagination.

Fair enough, they would have to find something that would DRASTICALLY change their style of play, production, scheme, defense etc but if they did, they would be on a role going into the Playoffs at that rate. At that same time, they have been cannon fodder for teams that were legit contenders for the last how many years? Nice series win against a truely young Nuggets team that barely got by an aged/depleted Spurs team, but they were then cannon fodder for a legit team that was without a top-3 player in the league.

 

[Orion Bailey]

How does our cap have anything to do with how many games we win / if we win our upcoming games? What?

You brought up financial constraints genius. And yes the CBA limits financial spending of acquisitions of talent which determines win/loss. Some aquisitions also cost more or less depending on the timing. "Trade CJ while value is high or low."

Its all relative.. .if you have any knowledge of business.

it’s not a valid analogy. Games are worth exactly one game no matter if we win them tomorrow or a day before the last game of the season. Money in a business can create additional money if you get it sooner than later via investments.

Energy expended is not a one to one ratio and that's where the costs come in.

You yourself said you have not much knowledge of the CBA, but yet bitch about losing guys like Aminu, without any correlation to your admission of not knowing how the money works. Now you sit here and tell me the cap doesn't have anything to do with wins and losses? Yes it does. Its all about how you play the cap to acquire as many of the best assets as possible while making sure they fit together, like a balanced roster... which equates to wins and losses.

... I need not explain anything more as you are obviously set in your ways, based on reading your other posts....No point trying to explain something to someone who doesn't want to understand.

Oh and thanks for answering my Q about what you do for a living.....



Learn the game then post.......



Usually the uninformed are the loudest... I suppose this place is no different.

 

[kjironman1]

Fair enough, they would have to find something that would DRASTICALLY change their style of play, production, scheme, defense etc but if they did, they would be on a role going into the Playoffs at that rate. At that same time, they have been cannon fodder for teams that were legit contenders for the last how many years? Nice series win against a truely young Nuggets team that barely got by an aged/depleted Spurs team, but they were then cannon fodder for a legit team that was without a top-3 player in the league.

Lets just figure your original assessment is probably correct. I highly doubt they go 45-20 the rest of the way.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Bigger picture, I'm absolutely against a 'Win now' trade. Everything this season needs to be for the future and that future could easily be as soon as next year. Last season the Blazers finished with a 53-29 record, a .646 winning percentage. Currently, the Blazers are 5-12 with a .294 winning percentage.

To get to just 50 wins, they would have to go 45-20 the rest of the season (.692) and that would put them squarely in the #7 spot...historical cannon fodder territory with a Draft pick in June around #18-20. It's possible that can be done. Nick Nurse has the Raptors at a .733 winning percentage after losing Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard and significant rotation player Danny Green in the off-season. But then he has the advantage of never having been an NBA coach before.

So the Blazers would have to go the rest of the year with a higher winning percentage than the Rockets and Clippers have right now....just to get to the #7 spot.

Devil's advocate: what about the 94-95 Rockets? They looked bad but made a big trade (Clyde for Thorpe) midseason, limped into the playoffs (6th seed?) and won it all!!!!!!

 

[TBpup]

Devil's advocate: what about the 94-95 Rockets? They looked bad but made a big trade (Clyde for Thorpe) midseason, limped into the playoffs (6th seed?) and won it all!!!!!!

That is the one exception I could think of and figured that would be brought up. And if Portland had one of the greatest players in the history of the game on their team and were the defending champions, I'd probably have thought that was more of a possibility.

 

[Blazers Roy]

If Neil is really desperate and OKC REALLY wants that cap room fast:

 

[kjironman1]

If Neil is really desperate and OKC REALLY wants that cap room fast:
View attachment 28665

Seriously. If this was available? I would be on board with this. Just think after getting Nurk and Collins back?

 

[Blazers Roy]

Seriously. If this was available? I would be on board with this. Just think after getting Nurk and Collins back?

Adams is a good insurance policy regardless.
I remember Bill Simmons talking about how horrible that contract is for OKC, you can't tell if he's speaking his mind or if someone in OKC's front office actually feels this way too though.

 

[wizenheimer]

Devil's advocate: what about the 94-95 Rockets? They looked bad but made a big trade (Clyde for Thorpe) midseason, limped into the playoffs (6th seed?) and won it all!!!!!!

they were the reigning NBA champs and were 31-17 when Drexler joined the team

 

[Rastapopoulos]

they were the reigning NBA champs and were 31-17 when Drexler joined the team

I knew the first part but forgot the second.

 

[kjironman1]

Adams is a good insurance policy regardless.
I remember Bill Simmons talking about how horrible that contract is for OKC, you can't tell if he's speaking his mind or if someone in OKC's front office actually feels this way too though.

There are problems with Steven Adams game but i just always liked the dude.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

There are problems with Steven Adams game but i just always liked the dude.

He's the guy I thought we were going to draft when we drafted CJ.