Hold onto your shorts! (2 Viewers)

[ABM]

Hmmm.....

Hello darkness, my old friend
I've come to talk with you again
Because a vision softly creeping
Left its seeds while I was sleeping
And the vision that was planted in my brain
Still remains
Within the sound of (seven days of) silence

 

[james3921]

you thought 25 mill was a lot? well, according to a-woj, the offer just made was 5 years, 34 MILLION. wow

 

[Nikolokolus]

No, it's quite true.



Absolutely. I like using something objective to measure player production, considering that none of us see all non-Portland players enough to make solid judgments on what are pretty subtle differences that mean a lot in terms of effectiveness and none of us are professional scouts. PER uses scoring, assists and rebounds just as you do, it just adjusts for efficiency (in scoring), opportunities (in rebounds and assists) and pace (everything, basically). I think you just got too caught up in using raw numbers again.

Matthews PER seems to be most adversely affected by his low usage rate and piddly rebound rate; players get dinged pretty badly if they don't use a lot of possessions in Hollinger's formula ... similar to Batum in his first year.

That said, Matthews could end up being a really expensive Webster replacement at basically the same amount of money. I'm not sure how I feel about that.

 

[B-Roy]

Wesley Matthews has signed a 5-year, $34 million offer sheet with Portland, his agent, Lance Young, tells Y!

From Woj's Twitter.

Holy fuck that's the entire MLE. I hope the Jazz match.

 

[Nikolokolus]

you thought 25 mill was a lot? well, according to a-woj, the offer just made was 5 years, 34 MILLION. wow

Holy fuck. Why do I feel like we just made up for lucking out on the Hedo situation last year?

 

[Pinwheel1]

Depends on what the offer is. If it's a full MLE offer...they might not, because he probably isn't worth that. Of course, you can't always account for competitiveness. No matter how bad an idea it is, they may not want to feel like they got "beaten by Portland" for one of their players.

I agree with you there. Based on O'Connor tone last year when we offered Milsap, he will match. They don't have a lot of SG's on their roster. Not sure they have a choice.

 

[RoyToy]

No, it's quite true.

No, it's not.

Absolutely. I like using something objective to measure player production, considering that none of us see all non-Portland players enough to make solid judgments on what are pretty subtle differences that mean a lot in terms of effectiveness and none of us are professional scouts. PER uses scoring, assists and rebounds just as you do, it just adjusts for efficiency (in scoring), opportunities (in rebounds and assists) and pace (everything, basically). I think you just got too caught up in using raw numbers again.

And you go ahead and keep using it as the be all, end all when it's merely just one component of the big picture.

 

[RoyToy]

Holy fuck. Why do I feel like we just made up for lucking out on the Hedo situation last year?

Well, if Utah matches...

 

[Minstrel]

$7 million a year for Matthews? Ouch. He'd better be a prime Pippen on defense.

 

[STOMP]

Some players' value doesn't show in their PER. Batum is one of these. Probably because a key virtue is defense, which PER doesn't measure.

while you do have a point that PER is an offensive measure, Nic's PER was 17.3 last year... thats pretty good

STOMP

 

[Minstrel]

No, it's not.

Sure it is.

And you go ahead and keep using it as the be all, end all when it's merely just one component of the big picture.

I've never used it as the be-all and end-all. Just as better evidence than "I watched him play and he's so good so gtfo out with your fancy 'stats.'"

 

[Nikolokolus]

$7 million a year for Matthews? Ouch. He'd better be a prime Pippen on defense.

If they don't match I think we just paid 2-3 million too much per year for this kid ... you're right, he'd better be something pretty damn special on the defensive end -- like Bruce Bowen's illegitimate love child.

 

[RoyToy]

Matthews PER seems to be most adversely affected by his low usage rate and piddly rebound rate; players get dinged pretty badly if they don't use a lot of possessions in Hollinger's formula ... similar to Batum in his first year.

To add

Lastly, PER rewards inefficient shooting. To quote Dave Berri, the author of The Wages of Wins:

"Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points. Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA played does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots."

 

[Pinwheel1]

OK that is higher than I would have gone. But I guess they figure if they really want him then really go for it. Or really fuck the Jazz over.

 

[RoyToy]

Sure it is.

Still isn't.

I've never used it as the be-all and end-all.

You actually do, though.

Just as better evidence than "I watched him play and he's so good so gtfo out with your fancy 'stats

...

 

[oldmangrouch]

$7 million a year for Matthews? Ouch. He'd better be a prime Pippen on defense.

I agree....bad as the perimeter defense could be last season, that's a lot of $$$ for a merely good defender.

 

[Minstrel]

Still isn't.

Yes.

You actually do, though.

No.

...

Zuh.

 

[Erroneous Subterfuge]

I guess I thought it had been made pretty clear that Rudy has no intentions of coming back to Portland? And I'm not really sure how much use a petulant, sulking Rudy, rotting on the bench is going to be to this team.

Link please? or are you referring to those quotes in the Spanish version of the national enquirer? But let's say he does want to leave since he and Nate don't see eye to eye, why give him away instead of having both? then you can trade one of them and not leave a gaping hole in the lineup.

On topic - that's way too much for fucking matthews...

 

[Pinwheel1]

I agree....bad as the perimeter defense could be last season, that's a lot of $$$ for a merely good defender.

I will say he is a better offensive player than i think you all are giving him credit for. He is no Trenton Hassel by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[Nikolokolus]

The Dirt from A-Woj:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ys-matthewsblazers071010

From an undrafted rookie to an occasional starter with the Utah Jazz, guard Wesley Matthews’(notes) remarkable first season made another dramatic turn: He’s signed a five-year, $34 million offer sheet with the Portland Trail Blazers, a league executive with knowledge of the deal told Yahoo! Sports.

The Blazers offered their full midlevel exception in a frontloaded contract that includes a $9.2 million payday in the first year in hopes it would be too expensive for the Jazz to match and keep Matthews, the source said. The Blazers had considered making an offer to Los Angeles Lakers guard Jordan Farmar(notes), sources said, but turned to Matthews after a meeting with him on Friday.

Matthews signed the offer sheet Saturday in Las Vegas. The Jazz will have seven days to match.

The Jazz are fond of Matthews, whom they signed as an undrafted free agent out of Marquette. He played 82 games last season, averaging 9.4 points. His ability to defend on the perimeter is an important reason why the Blazers have been so resolved to sign him.

The Blazers signed Jazz forward Paul Millsap(notes) to a four-year, $32 million offer sheet last summer, but Utah matched and kept him.

Jesus, another front loaded deal.

 

[Minstrel]

He is no Trenton Hassel by any stretch of the imagination.

That much, at least, I agree with. He's definitely superior to Hassel.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Link please? or are you referring to those quotes in the Spanish version of the national enquirer? But let's say he does want to leave since he and Nate don't see eye to eye, why give him away instead of having both? then you can trade one of them and not leave a gaping hole in the lineup.

I've also heard it several times from somewhat credible sources in a radio format (thus no link). Jason Quick said he's talked with Rudy's agent Andy Miller about it, and Kenny Vance reported that people he's talked to around the league made it pretty clear that Rudy has no intention of returning here. is that proof? No, but it's fairly compelling evidence.

On topic - that's way too much for fucking matthews...

Yeah, that's my gut reaction.

 

[Pinwheel1]

The Dirt from A-Woj:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ys-matthewsblazers071010



Jesus, another front loaded deal.

This is hilarious. I will have to tune in to th local radio station on Monday (via the internet)to hear Kevin O'connors reaction. The Blazers are playing hard ball. As far as i can see resigning Matthews (With this deal) would hurt their chances of going after a solid "big" that they so desperately want.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Bruce Bowen never cracked double figures in PER for the Heat or Spurs.
Raja Bell's best PER for the Suns was 12.9.

 

[Natebishop3]

Well, regardless of the outcome of the offseason, at least we can fuck with the Utah Jazz again. That's always entertaining.

 

[Minstrel]

Bruce Bowen never cracked double figures in PER for the Heat or Spurs.

Very true and PER accurately conveyed that he wasn't a very productive offensive player. He was, however, a defensive ace. So that's a worthwhile trait even if your production isn't good.

 

[RoyToy]

So who had the final say on this? McMillan?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Will Matthews instantly become the best-paid member of the draft class of 2009? "Suck it, Griffin!"

 

[RoyToy]

Bruce Bowen never cracked double figures in PER for the Heat or Spurs.
Raja Bell's best PER for the Suns was 12.9.

And I think no one would call Raja Bell a bad player for having a bad PER

 

[Nikolokolus]

So who had the final say on this? McMillan?

I'm guessing PA ... but I'm sure between Born, Buchanan, Miller and Allen it was something of a decision by committee