Hollinger Power Rankings

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Bleacher Report power rankings

1. MEM
2. SAS
3. GSW

4. Portland Trail Blazers
Long winning streaks are all the rage in the Western Conference these days, but nobody is raging harder than the Portland Trail Blazers. Their 105-97 win in Charlotte was their ninth in a row, extending the longest streak the NBA has seen this season.

That's not bad for a team that was a popular pick to fall off its previous pace of success. At 12-3, Portland is but one game behind last season's starting pace, which saw the Blazers bust out for 31 wins in their first 40 games before falling off somewhat during the second half of 2013-14.

To be sure, Portland sports similar potential for regression this time around. Four of the recent victories have come in surprisingly close fashion against Philly, Boston and Charlotte (twice)—not exactly a murderers' row of competition.

But, on the whole, the Blazers are better now than they were a year ago. Their offense is back to being one of the NBA's three best. Their defense now belongs among the top 10, and their bench, once an absolute black hole, can now hold its own, at the very least, with help from Chris Kaman and Steve Blake.
 
Boise Blazer said:
Bleacher Report power rankings

1. MEM
2. SAS
3. GSW

4. Portland Trail Blazers
Long winning streaks are all the rage in the Western Conference these days, but nobody is raging harder than the Portland Trail Blazers. Their 105-97 win in Charlotte was their ninth in a row, extending the longest streak the NBA has seen this season.

That's not bad for a team that was a popular pick to fall off its previous pace of success. At 12-3, Portland is but one game behind last season's starting pace, which saw the Blazers bust out for 31 wins in their first 40 games before falling off somewhat during the second half of 2013-14.

To be sure, Portland sports similar potential for regression this time around. Four of the recent victories have come in surprisingly close fashion against Philly, Boston and Charlotte (twice)—not exactly a murderers' row of competition.

But, on the whole, the Blazers are better now than they were a year ago. Their offense is back to being one of the NBA's three best. Their defense now belongs among the top 10, and their bench, once an absolute black hole, can now hold its own, at the very least, with help from Chris Kaman and Steve Blake.
Click to expand...

Two things about this annoy me.

1. Nobody seems to remember that Aldridge was out when we "fell off" in the second half of the season. That fact seems to slip their minds.

2. Four of our victories have come in "close fashion?"

Beat the Hornets by 8.

Beat the Sixers by 10.

Beat the Celtics by 6.

Beat the Bulls by 18.

Beat the Pelicans by 9.

Beat the Nets by 10.

Beat the Nuggets by 17.

So which four have come in surprisingly close fashion? Is 10 points close? 8 points? Are we supposed to blow these teams out by 20? In our last three games we started out a little cold and then crushed them in the 3rd and 4th quarters to win pretty comfortably. Not sure which four were "close."
 
Thought I'd bump his thread after checking the Hollinger Power Rankings and Playoff Odds this morning.

After our 26-point win over NOP last night, the Blazers jumped all the way from 8th to 2nd in the Hollinger Power Rankings. That win greatly increased our MOV over the last 10 games and also increased our SOS over those same 10 games. That's quite a move up for just a single victory, but illustrates how heavily weighted the Hollinger Power Rankings are for recent performance - I call it the "what have you done for me lately" factor.

I noticed a similar, but not quite as impressive jump by TOR from 6th to 2nd after Friday night's games. I also noticed how closely bunched teams 2 through 8 were at that time (separated by only 0.773 RAT), making such a huge jump possible. Toronto's big move was after a 10-point win over Detroit. Our 26-point win over NOP was much more impressive, as was ATL's 7-point road win over HOU, as both teams leaped frogged TOR, who dropped to 4th in spite of having Saturday off.

The Blazers weekend road victories over SAS and NOP, combined with losses by SAS, MEM and LAC has more than doubled the RAT gap between 2nd and 8th places from .773 to 1.507, but that's still a very tight grouping.

POR is creeping up on top ranked GSW, but the Warriors are still the class of the league, by far, according to Hollinger. Before Friday night's triple OT victory over SAS, the Blazers were ranked 9th in RAT and trailed the Warriors by 6.401 (110.772 to 104.371). We now only trail them by less than 4 RAT points (110.620 - 106.674 = 3.946). Still the gap between top ranked GSW and 2nd ranked POR is greater than the gap between 2nd ranked Portland and 13th ranked CLE. That's how impressive GSW has been so far this season - and especially recently.

Moving on to Hollinger's Playoff Odds, the Blazers have also climbed up to 2nd in the West with 99.6% chance of making the post season. My favorite part of the Hollinger Playoff Odds is the Projected Record. It's based on simulating the remainder of the season 5000 times based on the current Power Rankings of your future opponents. Of course, it can't predict future injuries, trades, teams getting hot and cold, etc., but it's sort of a SOS of the future. Unlike the Hollinger Power Rankings, which are based on what's already happened, and strongly influenced by what's happened recently, the Hollinger Playoff Odds are a projection of future performance.

So, according to Hollinger's current Playoff Odds, the Blazers will finish 2nd in the West at 57-25, finishing 7 games behind 64-win GSW and nudging 56-26 MEM for the second seed in the West by 1 game. If Hollinger's projections are accurate (they won't be as they change after every game, but it's still fun to think about), the 2nd seeded Blazers would face the 7th seeded, 49-win, defending champion Spurs in the first round. I know the Spurs are reeling right now, losing 4 in a row, but they've also had significant injuries and Pop has been resting his vets a lot (all five starters sat out last night's game in Dallas and they still gave DAL a scare). So, is this the year the Spurs FINALLY show their age, or are they still the potential 1st round opponent you fear the most?

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
Thought I'd bump his thread after checking the Hollinger Power Rankings and Playoff Odds this morning.

After our 26-point win over NOP last night, the Blazers jumped all the way from 8th to 2nd in the Hollinger Power Rankings. That win greatly increased our MOV over the last 10 games and also increased our SOS over those same 10 games. That's quite a move up for just a single victory, but illustrates how heavily weighted the Hollinger Power Rankings are for recent performance - I call it the "what have you done for me lately" factor.

I noticed a similar, but not quite as impressive jump by TOR from 6th to 2nd after Friday night's games. I also noticed how closely bunched teams 2 through 8 were at that time (separated by only 0.773 RAT), making such a huge jump possible. Toronto's big move was after a 10-point win over Detroit. Our 26-point win over NOP was much more impressive, as was ATL's 7-point road win over HOU, as both teams leaped frogged TOR, who dropped to 4th in spite of having Saturday off.

The Blazers weekend road victories over SAS and NOP, combined with losses by SAS, MEM and LAC has more than doubled the RAT gap between 2nd and 8th places from .773 to 1.507, but that's still a very tight grouping.

POR is creeping up on top ranked GSW, but the Warriors are still the class of the league, by far, according to Hollinger. Before Friday night's triple OT victory over SAS, the Blazers were ranked 9th in RAT and trailed the Warriors by 6.401 (110.772 to 104.371). We now only trail them by less than 4 RAT points (110.620 - 106.674 = 3.946). Still the gap between top ranked GSW and 2nd ranked POR is greater than the gap between 2nd ranked Portland and 13th ranked CLE. That's how impressive GSW has been so far this season - and especially recently.

Moving on to Hollinger's Playoff Odds, the Blazers have also climbed up to 2nd in the West with 99.6% chance of making the post season. My favorite part of the Hollinger Playoff Odds is the Projected Record. It's based on simulating the remainder of the season 5000 times based on the current Power Rankings of your future opponents. Of course, it can't predict future injuries, trades, teams getting hot and cold, etc., but it's sort of a SOS of the future. Unlike the Hollinger Power Rankings, which are based on what's already happened, and strongly influenced by what's happened recently, the Hollinger Playoff Odds are a projection of future performance.

So, according to Hollinger's current Playoff Odds, the Blazers will finish 2nd in the West at 57-25, finishing 7 games behind 64-win GSW and nudging 56-26 MEM for the second seed in the West by 1 game. If Hollinger's projections are accurate (they won't be as they change after every game, but it's still fun to think about), the 2nd seeded Blazers would face the 7th seeded, 49-win, defending champion Spurs in the first round. I know the Spurs are reeling right now, losing 4 in a row, but they've also had significant injuries and Pop has been resting his vets a lot (all five starters sat out last night's game in Dallas and they still gave DAL a scare). So, is this the year the Spurs FINALLY show their age, or are they still the potential 1st round opponent you fear the most?

BNM
Click to expand...

To me, you have to beat the best teams in the playoffs to advance. Whether you play them first or last. The order doesn't matter to me
 
Mediocre Man said:
To me, you have to beat the best teams in the playoffs to advance. Whether you play them first or last. The order doesn't matter to me
Click to expand...

I completely agree with this, my only addition would be that having home court advantage is huge in the playoffs. The West is tough from 1-8.
 
I would love for Portland to have home court vs. San Antonio in the first round of the playoffs!
 
Boob-No-More said:
Thought I'd bump his thread after checking the Hollinger Power Rankings and Playoff Odds this morning.

After our 26-point win over NOP last night, the Blazers jumped all the way from 8th to 2nd in the Hollinger Power Rankings. That win greatly increased our MOV over the last 10 games and also increased our SOS over those same 10 games. That's quite a move up for just a single victory, but illustrates how heavily weighted the Hollinger Power Rankings are for recent performance - I call it the "what have you done for me lately" factor.

I noticed a similar, but not quite as impressive jump by TOR from 6th to 2nd after Friday night's games. I also noticed how closely bunched teams 2 through 8 were at that time (separated by only 0.773 RAT), making such a huge jump possible. Toronto's big move was after a 10-point win over Detroit. Our 26-point win over NOP was much more impressive, as was ATL's 7-point road win over HOU, as both teams leaped frogged TOR, who dropped to 4th in spite of having Saturday off.

The Blazers weekend road victories over SAS and NOP, combined with losses by SAS, MEM and LAC has more than doubled the RAT gap between 2nd and 8th places from .773 to 1.507, but that's still a very tight grouping.

POR is creeping up on top ranked GSW, but the Warriors are still the class of the league, by far, according to Hollinger. Before Friday night's triple OT victory over SAS, the Blazers were ranked 9th in RAT and trailed the Warriors by 6.401 (110.772 to 104.371). We now only trail them by less than 4 RAT points (110.620 - 106.674 = 3.946). Still the gap between top ranked GSW and 2nd ranked POR is greater than the gap between 2nd ranked Portland and 13th ranked CLE. That's how impressive GSW has been so far this season - and especially recently.

Moving on to Hollinger's Playoff Odds, the Blazers have also climbed up to 2nd in the West with 99.6% chance of making the post season. My favorite part of the Hollinger Playoff Odds is the Projected Record. It's based on simulating the remainder of the season 5000 times based on the current Power Rankings of your future opponents. Of course, it can't predict future injuries, trades, teams getting hot and cold, etc., but it's sort of a SOS of the future. Unlike the Hollinger Power Rankings, which are based on what's already happened, and strongly influenced by what's happened recently, the Hollinger Playoff Odds are a projection of future performance.

So, according to Hollinger's current Playoff Odds, the Blazers will finish 2nd in the West at 57-25, finishing 7 games behind 64-win GSW and nudging 56-26 MEM for the second seed in the West by 1 game. If Hollinger's projections are accurate (they won't be as they change after every game, but it's still fun to think about), the 2nd seeded Blazers would face the 7th seeded, 49-win, defending champion Spurs in the first round. I know the Spurs are reeling right now, losing 4 in a row, but they've also had significant injuries and Pop has been resting his vets a lot (all five starters sat out last night's game in Dallas and they still gave DAL a scare). So, is this the year the Spurs FINALLY show their age, or are they still the potential 1st round opponent you fear the most?

BNM
Click to expand...

Thunder is the first round team I fear the most. When the Spurs fail, which rarely happens, it's usually in the first round.

Don't get me wrong... They are my second most feared first round opponent, but Thunder will be "That team"
 
Boob-No-More said:
Thought I'd bump his thread after checking the Hollinger Power Rankings and Playoff Odds this morning.

After our 26-point win over NOP last night, the Blazers jumped all the way from 8th to 2nd in the Hollinger Power Rankings. That win greatly increased our MOV over the last 10 games and also increased our SOS over those same 10 games. That's quite a move up for just a single victory, but illustrates how heavily weighted the Hollinger Power Rankings are for recent performance - I call it the "what have you done for me lately" factor.

I noticed a similar, but not quite as impressive jump by TOR from 6th to 2nd after Friday night's games. I also noticed how closely bunched teams 2 through 8 were at that time (separated by only 0.773 RAT), making such a huge jump possible. Toronto's big move was after a 10-point win over Detroit. Our 26-point win over NOP was much more impressive, as was ATL's 7-point road win over HOU, as both teams leaped frogged TOR, who dropped to 4th in spite of having Saturday off.

The Blazers weekend road victories over SAS and NOP, combined with losses by SAS, MEM and LAC has more than doubled the RAT gap between 2nd and 8th places from .773 to 1.507, but that's still a very tight grouping.

POR is creeping up on top ranked GSW, but the Warriors are still the class of the league, by far, according to Hollinger. Before Friday night's triple OT victory over SAS, the Blazers were ranked 9th in RAT and trailed the Warriors by 6.401 (110.772 to 104.371). We now only trail them by less than 4 RAT points (110.620 - 106.674 = 3.946). Still the gap between top ranked GSW and 2nd ranked POR is greater than the gap between 2nd ranked Portland and 13th ranked CLE. That's how impressive GSW has been so far this season - and especially recently.

Moving on to Hollinger's Playoff Odds, the Blazers have also climbed up to 2nd in the West with 99.6% chance of making the post season. My favorite part of the Hollinger Playoff Odds is the Projected Record. It's based on simulating the remainder of the season 5000 times based on the current Power Rankings of your future opponents. Of course, it can't predict future injuries, trades, teams getting hot and cold, etc., but it's sort of a SOS of the future. Unlike the Hollinger Power Rankings, which are based on what's already happened, and strongly influenced by what's happened recently, the Hollinger Playoff Odds are a projection of future performance.

So, according to Hollinger's current Playoff Odds, the Blazers will finish 2nd in the West at 57-25, finishing 7 games behind 64-win GSW and nudging 56-26 MEM for the second seed in the West by 1 game. If Hollinger's projections are accurate (they won't be as they change after every game, but it's still fun to think about), the 2nd seeded Blazers would face the 7th seeded, 49-win, defending champion Spurs in the first round. I know the Spurs are reeling right now, losing 4 in a row, but they've also had significant injuries and Pop has been resting his vets a lot (all five starters sat out last night's game in Dallas and they still gave DAL a scare). So, is this the year the Spurs FINALLY show their age, or are they still the potential 1st round opponent you fear the most?

BNM
Click to expand...

In addition to the rankings liking our last 10, we are now 8-4 vs. +.500 teams, good for 2nd best in the league.

I'm pointing this out because when we played Chicago, Hubie Brown said something to the extent of
"Portland's not real, look at their record against the +.500 teams".

So, I guess this is my clumsy way to insert "Suck it, Hubie" into the conversation.
 
Does anyone else wish Hubie Brown had a twitter account?
 
magnifier661 said:
Thunder is the first round team I fear the most. When the Spurs fail, which rarely happens, it's usually in the first round.

Don't get me wrong... They are my second most feared first round opponent, but Thunder will be "That team"
Click to expand...

If we can stay a top 2 seed, we most likely won't face OKC in the first round. Hollinger's simulations currently have them as 8th seed, but remember, that projection starts with their performance to date. With the injuries to their two best players, he only has them ranked 12th in the league in his current Power Rankings. With Westbrook, and especially Durant, healthy, they are better than the 12th best team in the league. They will continue to climb up the standings. As tough as the West is, I don't know if they will be able to make it all the way to HCA, but expect them to at least get up to the 6th or possibly even the 5th seed by season's end, likely passing the Spurs and the Rockets.

There is way too much basketball to play to know where everyone will finish, but if we want to avoid OKC in the first round, we should try to land a top 2 seed, or top 3 at the very least. The West is gong to be VERY interesting come late March/early April as teams 2 - 8 are all jockeying for HCA and favorable match ups (if there is even such a thing this year).

BNM
 
Wizard Mentor said:
In addition to the rankings liking our last 10, we are now 8-4 vs. +.500 teams, good for 2nd best in the league.

I'm pointing this out because when we played Chicago, Hubie Brown said something to the extent of
"Portland's not real, look at their record against the +.500 teams".

So, I guess this is my clumsy way to insert "Suck it, Hubie" into the conversation.
Click to expand...

I tweeted this for you
[tweet]546809525244669952[/tweet]
 
Boob-No-More said:
If we can stay a top 2 seed, we most likely won't face OKC in the first round. Hollinger's simulations currently have them as 8th seed, but remember, that projection starts with their performance to date. With the injuries to their two best players, he only has them ranked 12th in the league in his current Power Rankings. With Westbrook, and especially Durant, healthy, they are better than the 12th best team in the league. They will continue to climb up the standings. As tough as the West is, I don't know if they will be able to make it all the way to HCA, but expect them to at least get up to the 6th or possibly even the 5th seed by season's end, likely passing the Spurs and the Rockets.

There is way too much basketball to play to know where everyone will finish, but if we want to avoid OKC in the first round, we should try to land a top 2 seed, or top 3 at the very least. The West is gong to be VERY interesting come late March/early April as teams 2 - 8 are all jockeying for HCA and favorable match ups (if there is even such a thing this year).

BNM
Click to expand...

Yeah OKC is an anomaly. They may even get HCA. That's why I want our team to win the most possible, regardless who's under us
 
magnifier661 said:
Yeah OKC is an anomaly. They may even get HCA. That's why I want our team to win the most possible, regardless who's under us
Click to expand...

Yeah, all the other top teams in the West, besides the Spurs, are playing so well OKC has a big battle to get all the way to HCA. It will be interesting to see who slips. I think the Spurs will right the ship and play better as the season progresses. They've had a lot of injuries and Pop has really been resting his vets to the point of giving games away in December so they will be rested and ready come April and May.

Man, if everyone stays reasonably healthy, I think the West is going to be a real dogfight, like we've never seen in the entire history of the NBA. I think, if healthy, every one of the top 8 teams in the West has a legitimate shot at winning the title. Sure, some teams are a little better than others, but all it takes is one player on any of those 8 teams to get hot and they could beat any of the other 7 in a series.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
Yeah, all the other top teams in the West, besides the Spurs, are playing so well OKC has a big battle to get all the way to HCA. It will be interesting to see who slips. I think the Spurs will right the ship and play better as the season progresses. They've had a lot of injuries and Pop has really been resting his vets to the point of giving games away in December so they will be rested and ready come April and May.

Man, if everyone stays reasonably healthy, I think the West is going to be a real dogfight, like we've never seen in the entire history of the NBA. I think, if healthy, every one of the top 8 teams in the West has a legitimate shot at winning the title. Sure, some teams are a little better than others, but all it takes is one player on any of those 8 teams to get hot and they could beat any of the other 7 in a series.

BNM
Click to expand...

It doesn't make sense.... are the east teams just THAT bad at drafting, trading, signing, etc? It seems like the west has been the best conference for soooooo long.
 
Boob-No-More said:
Yeah, all the other top teams in the West, besides the Spurs, are playing so well OKC has a big battle to get all the way to HCA. It will be interesting to see who slips. I think the Spurs will right the ship and play better as the season progresses. They've had a lot of injuries and Pop has really been resting his vets to the point of giving games away in December so they will be rested and ready come April and May.

Man, if everyone stays reasonably healthy, I think the West is going to be a real dogfight, like we've never seen in the entire history of the NBA. I think, if healthy, every one of the top 8 teams in the West has a legitimate shot at winning the title. Sure, some teams are a little better than others, but all it takes is one player on any of those 8 teams to get hot and they could beat any of the other 7 in a series.

BNM
Click to expand...

The Clippers and Houston haven't really impressed me. I would have added Dallas, but that trade may interfere. It could be just as bad as its good, so I want to watch the next 10-15 games to see where Dallas stands.

I have no doubt Spurs will come around and get HCA in the first round. It will be tough for OKC just because of the hole they dug
 
Mediocre Man said:
So not a completely unfair tweet
Click to expand...

Not exactly... He made the mistake to claim a team based on 6 games instead of say "let's see how they do in December when they play more .500 teams.

Also, there are now 2 more wins that were below .500 that got better and are +.500 when he made that comment.

/Kingspeed
 
magnifier661 said:
Not exactly... He made the mistake to claim a team based on 6 games instead of say "let's see how they do in December when they play more .500 teams.

Also, there are now 2 more wins that were below .500 that got better and are +.500 when he made that comment.

/Kingspeed
Click to expand...

He is an analyst who is paid to give his opinion of the NBA as it stands, isn't he?

It's like mocking a weather man who correctly says it's sunny out today, but then rains the next three days
 
Mediocre Man said:
He is an analyst who is paid to give his opinion of the NBA as it stands, isn't he?

It's like mocking a weather man who correctly says it's sunny out today, but then rains the next three days
Click to expand...

Odd that you would jump all over Kingspeed with his claim about Houston, then defend Hubie Brown for using the same form of argument.
 
Mediocre Man said:
As I think it's odd you think both are remotely the same
Click to expand...

Easy. Both were statements early in the season. And actually Hubbie was wrong, since he brought up a beating +.500 team as an argument. The season was barely started, explaining how 3-3 then was really 5-3 now (two teams were -.500 and became +.500 now).
 
magnifier661 said:
Easy. Both were statements early in the season. And actually Hubbie was wrong, since he brought up a beating +.500 team as an argument. The season was barely started, explaining how 3-3 then was really 5-3 now (two teams were -.500 and became +.500 now).
Click to expand...

Houston was 9-3 missing 3 starters
 
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