Hollinger puts a spin on team success

[Nikolokolus]

It's an insider article so I won't quote the whole thing, but basically he provides a pretty compelling argument for why teams like the Thunder, Hawks, Grizzlies, etc. have done so much better than predicted at the outset of the season (and at the other end of the spectrum why teams like the Blazers have struggled so mightily).

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-100226

We come up with all kinds of reasons for the success of surprise teams -- the young guys learned how to win, the star player stepped his game up another level, a new acquisition gave a much-needed boost, etc.

I don't mean to denigrate those factors, because for both Atlanta and Oklahoma City, they're very real. The Hawks and Thunder are young teams that learned how to play hard every night, stars like Kevin Durant and Josh Smith have stepped their games up this season, and new acquisitions (Thabo Sefolosha for Oklahoma City, Jamal Crawford for Atlanta) certainly have been helpful.

But there's another element to their success that people rarely consider: good health. Shockingly good, pristine health, actually.

Look at four of this season's biggest surprise teams: the Thunder, Hawks, Rockets and Grizzlies. Now, do you know which NBA teams have the fewest missed games due to injuries among their top six players this season? Would you believe ... the Thunder, Hawks, Rockets and Grizzlies?

As part of a research project, I went through each team and counted how many games were missed by the top six players (those projected to be in the top six at the start of the season). Why the top six? Because those are the players required to do the heavy lifting during the course of the season.

and the really mind blowing bit (actually seeing it compared to the rest of the league).

We can reach similar conclusions looking at the opposite end of the spectrum. Portland, Golden State, New Jersey and Washington have fallen well short of expectations this season, and injuries have played a major role for each. The Blazers have a ridiculous 162 games missed by their top six, with ironman Andre Miller the only one to escape the bug -- and I didn't even include Joel Przybilla (30 games) or Rudy Fernandez (19) in their top six. Staring at that big, fat 162, it's no wonder they've fallen to eighth in the West and it's a minor miracle they're not even lower on the totem pole.

The next closest team is Golden State at 108 games missed.

So what's a normal number of injuries for the top six? The league median is 31, and 19 of the league's 30 teams are between 20 and 46. Obviously, that number will continue to rise as the season goes on, with a likely year-end median in the low 40s.

162 missed games from our top 6 players and that doesn't even count Rudy and Joel? Wowsa ... I'm equal parts amazed and depressed.

 

[blazerboy30]

Doesn't Hollinger know ANYTHING??

It's Nate's and Blake's fault that we have fallen short this season.

 

[mook]

Wow. I've never seen it put in quite those terms. I mean, I knew our guys missed a ridiculous number of games, but 162 vs the league median of 31?

Christ.

Going forward, the injury stat that matters far, far more than any other is how many games Roy plays. If he can finish the season out without missing more than a few, I think we're in the playoffs.

 

[RoyToy]

It's all McMillan's fault.

 

[jlprk]

Other possibilities: the trainer, the shoes, and some players at the practice facility all summer (that was last season).

 

[noknobs]

162 missed games from our top 6 players and that doesn't even count Rudy and Joel? Wowsa ... I'm equal parts amazed and depressed.

Great stuff, thanks for posting. It's incredible that the league median is 31 and we've got 54 more than Goldenstate! Not even counting those other guys. Wow.

Nate for COTY

 

[OddEnormous]

It's all McMillan's fault.

Agreed. this definitely means McDillon is a good coach.

 

[illmatic99]

Is Hollinger not counting Yao? I mean, he is out of the season, and he's their best player.

 

[andalusian]

Is Hollinger not counting Yao? I mean, he is out of the season, and he's their best player.

He is comparing it to his pre-season prediction. In his pre-season predictions he did not think the Rockets would be as good - but he included Yao as missing in these predictions.