Hope we don't make the same mistake with Leonard as we did with Jermaine... (1 Viewer)

[blue9]

How many of those shots are altered? How many times do offenses settle for a jumper instead of attacking a shot blocker? How many times when those shots are altered or missed from jumpers does the team run down on a fast break because of it? I think it's a lot more important than 2 points. It literally can chance a teams offensive game plan

I know what you're saying, and I don't think we're in disagreement. I was merely pointing out that the list of Cs posted by brainiac was made artificially short by the requirement of 2bpg. BPG doesn't capture shots that are altered, and so it's a very incomplete, and not very useful, measurement of a player's defense. Is there really any noticeable difference between a C who blocks 2.2 spg and a C who blocks 1.7 spg (or 2 vs 1, as I originally posited)? Perhaps there is, but you can't just look at that measurement and say that the guy who has the higher BPG average is the better player. The guy who's averaging 1.7bpg may be altering far more shots than the guy with a higher BPG average.

And I'm talking specifically about the blocked shots - not what they MIGHT lead to. In the best case scenario the difference between 1 block and 2 blocks is a savings of two points (3 if you want to get technical, but how often does a C block a 3-pointer?). If everyone in the league shot 100% then the difference would be 2 points. But because nobody shoots 100% it's not even a 2 points per game difference - more like 1 ppg. So in a game that scores in the 90s/100s are we really THAT concerned about a 1 ppg difference? I'm not. I'll take someone with a lower BPG average if they're a better overall defender.

And just to get back to what MIGHT happen after a blocked shot - often times the shot is blocked out of bounds, giving the ball back to the opponent with a chance to reset their offense.

Again, I just think that a fairly useless stat was used to create an artificially short list. There are far more than 3 quality Cs in the league.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I know what you're saying, and I don't think we're in disagreement. I was merely pointing out that the list of Cs posted by brainiac was made artificially short by the requirement of 2bpg. BPG doesn't capture shots that are altered, and so it's a very incomplete, and not very useful, measurement of a player's defense. Is there really any noticeable difference between a C who blocks 2.2 spg and a C who blocks 1.7 spg (or 2 vs 1, as I originally posited)? Perhaps there is, but you can't just look at that measurement and say that the guy who has the higher BPG average is the better player. The guy who's averaging 1.7bpg may be altering far more shots than the guy with a higher BPG average.

And I'm talking specifically about the blocked shots - not what they MIGHT lead to. In the best case scenario the difference between 1 block and 2 blocks is a savings of two points (3 if you want to get technical, but how often does a C block a 3-pointer?). If everyone in the league shot 100% then the difference would be 2 points. But because nobody shoots 100% it's not even a 2 points per game difference - more like 1 ppg. So in a game that scores in the 90s/100s are we really THAT concerned about a 1 ppg difference? I'm not. I'll take someone with a lower BPG average if they're a better overall defender.

And just to get back to what MIGHT happen after a blocked shot - often times the shot is blocked out of bounds, giving the ball back to the opponent with a chance to reset their offense.

Again, I just think that a fairly useless stat was used to create an artificially short list. There are far more than 3 quality Cs in the league.

Oh ya. stats are great. you can use them to make any argument

 

[mook]

This is probably a better list of all relevant centers in the current NBA. Very few of them are what anybody would consider great rebounders on a per game basis.

I look at that list and I wonder why people expect Leonard to eventually become a 10 reb/game guy. I understand it says he rebounded well in college in the draft reports, but my eyes tell me otherwise. It just doesn't happen a lot, and I don't see him doing it.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

10 Rebounds a game? Who said that? That is All-Star numbers.

I see his line in 3 seasons being:

7.5 pts/game, 7.7 rbs/ game, 1.1 blks/game

Is that a star? No. Is that a bust? No.

 

[drexlersdad]

I know what you're saying, and I don't think we're in disagreement. I was merely pointing out that the list of Cs posted by brainiac was made artificially short by the requirement of 2bpg.

the 8/8/2 blocks was from a previous thread, where that would be "nothing special"

in the post you are talking about is a link of players averaging 2/2/.5 blocks

here is a link of centers averaging .1/.1/.1 blocks in at least 1 mpg (bbref shows 50 such players), basically every center in the league more or less

http://www.basketball-reference.com...comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws_per_48

 

[drexlersdad]

btw blue the "artificially short" list at 2bpg...

here it is at 1bpg instead, its EIGHT players long

http://www.basketball-reference.com...comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws_per_48

 

[KeepOnRollin]

If he does merely 5/5/1 that puts him in top 15 (or 16 if he doesn't bump anyone out) at Centers in the league.

http://www.basketball-reference.com...comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws_per_48

Basically better than what half the teams trot out every night. Crazy to think that is all it takes to be in the top half.

 

[blue9]

I think we should be more worried about just GETTING an actual C, and focus on his ability to defend and rebound. I don't care if he blocks .8 or 3.8 shots per game, as long as he makes it tough for opponents to score in the paint.
I LOVE a good blocked shot - I'm just not interested in using it as a stat to say who's good and who isn't so good. According to ESPN there are 22 Cs averaging 1+ BPG. I think we can all agree that ANY of them would have a profound impact on our team.

 

[HomerLovesKoolAid]

I think we should be more worried about just GETTING an actual C, and focus on his ability to defend and rebound. I don't care if he blocks .8 or 3.8 shots per game, as long as he makes it tough for opponents to score in the paint.
I LOVE a good blocked shot - I'm just not interested in using it as a stat to say who's good and who isn't so good. According to ESPN there are 22 Cs averaging 1+ BPG. I think we can all agree that ANY of them would have a profound impact on our team.

Yes. Blocked shots are great. Being in the right position consistently on defense and knowing how to close off the lane and help/rotate is even better. As is laying a hard foul on someone once in a while, instead of getting fouls because you're in the wrong position.

 

[blue9]

Yes. Blocked shots are great. Being in the right position consistently on defense and knowing how to close off the lane and help/rotate is even better. As is laying a hard foul on someone once in a while, instead of getting fouls because you're in the wrong position.

Great point!

 

[drexlersdad]

for what its worth, nards is around the 20-30th best c in the league right now

 

[VanillaGorilla]

How many of those shots are altered? How many times do offenses settle for a jumper instead of attacking a shot blocker? How many times when those shots are altered or missed from jumpers does the team run down on a fast break because of it? I think it's a lot more important than 2 points. It literally can chance a teams offensive game plan

Can you tell me the answers to any of those questions? Are you totally aware of exactly how many shots centers effect?

 

[BlazerWookee]

Yes. Blocked shots are great. Being in the right position consistently on defense and knowing how to close off the lane and help/rotate is even better. As is laying a hard foul on someone once in a while, instead of getting fouls because you're in the wrong position.

That's what I loved about Przybilla. When he fouled someone, they stayed fouled.

 

[Blaze01]

He hasn't shown enough to prove that trading him away would be a mistake...

 

[Mediocre Man]

Can you tell me the answers to any of those questions? Are you totally aware of exactly how many shots centers effect?

Not at all

 

[drexlersdad]

basically, basic stats dont always tell the whole story of a centers effectiveness

i try to look at WS and ortg/drtg differential

 

[Mediocre Man]

basically, basic stats dont always tell the whole story of a centers effectiveness

i try to look at WS and ortg/drtg differential

So Leonard is a +9 on o/d rating and Dwight Howard is a +5. Does that make Leonard better?

 

[drexlersdad]

So Leonard is a +9 on o/d rating and Dwight Howard is a +5. Does that make Leonard better?

dont be dense

you use them like any other stat, to tell you a PART of the story

 

[drexlersdad]

games in which nards plays 20 mpg

http://www.basketball-reference.com...t&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=mp

 

[Nikolokolus]

dont be dense

you use them like any other stat, to tell you a PART of the story

There is no story with Leonard yet. All we've got is an awkward opening sentence.

 

[drexlersdad]

There is no story with Leonard yet. All we've got is an awkward opening sentence.

i dont necessarily disagree, yet still

in the 9 games he has played more than 20 minutes he is averaging

7.9 pts/ 5 boards/ 1.3 blocks

.617 shooting, 13/14 from the line

as one of the youngest players in the league

 

[Mediocre Man]

games in which nards plays 20 mpg

http://www.basketball-reference.com...t&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=mp

Any concern we are 3-6 in those games?

 

[PapaG]

i dont necessarily disagree, yet still

in the 9 games he has played more than 20 minutes he is averaging

7.9 pts/ 5 boards/ 1.3 blocks

.617 shooting, 13/14 from the line

as one of the youngest players in the league

Horrible. Trade him for some unknown something.

 

[RoyToy]

i dont necessarily disagree, yet still

in the 9 games he has played more than 20 minutes he is averaging

7.9 pts/ 5 boards/ 1.3 blocks

.617 shooting, 13/14 from the line

as one of the youngest players in the league

A lot of blowout losses

 

[PapaG]

Any concern we are 3-6 in those games?

Obviously Nards' fault. Just ask 'blue' about games when LMA scores 20+.

 

[drexlersdad]

Any concern we are 3-6 in those games?

all the losses except the clippers game were on the road, seems pretty normal to me

 

[PapaG]

A lot of blowout losses

8/8/1/1 in a win against Houston.

What is the point? Why give up on a guy who, as the stats show, is a pretty good rookie center historically at age 20?

Maybe Stotts should pull his head out of his ass and start playing the younger guys who have better stats than the crappy vets like Jeffries, Pavlovic, and Price.

Hell, Claver played well last night after not leaving the bench on Tuesday.

 

[RoyToy]

8/8/1/1 in a win against Houston.

What is the point? Why give up on a guy who, as the stats show, is a pretty good rookie center historically at age 20?

Maybe Stotts should pull his head out of his ass and start playing the younger guys who have better stats than the crappy vets like Jeffries, Pavlovic, and Price.

Hell, Claver played well last night after not leaving the bench on Tuesday.

I think if he were pretty good he would get consistent minutes.

Instead Stotts doesn't put him out there because Leonard is pretty much lost on both sides of the court. He's just....not playing well. I'll leave it at that.

 

[mook]

games in which nards plays 20 mpg

http://www.basketball-reference.com...t&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=mp

Interesting. I like the FG% in those numbers, and that he's basically at 1 turnover every 25 minutes. He just doesn't fumble the ball or miss easy ones (unlike Freeland). He plays reasonably mistake-free basketball on offense (other than being out of position at times.) Yeah, the team record isn't great, but most of those happen to be road games so you kind of expect losses.

I get the feeling Stotts is trying to instill some defense in his game while he's still young and malleable. He could very easily go down the slope of a poor man's Amare of all-offense/no-defense if you don't push him. If you could fix just some of the defensive incompetence he could be a really valuable bench asset.

 

[PapaG]

I think if he were pretty good he would get consistent minutes.

Instead Stotts doesn't put him out there because Leonard is pretty much lost on both sides of the court. He's just....not playing well. I'll leave it at that.

I don't see that at all. He has the highest bench PER easily, and he is +8 on Ortg/Drtg, best on the team (LMA is the only player positive at +1).

What more can he do to get minutes? Box out better? Stotts needs to put his best players on the floor, and Leonard's stats say he make the team better.