Houston fans: Robinson

[Boob-No-More]

Way to shatter my homerism to the ground. I. Hate. You...

Welcome to reality. Sorry for the bumpy landing.

BNM

 

[Natebishop3]

I like what I'm seeing from Thomas Robinson, but you guys need a serious reality check. Unless LaMarcus Aldridge suffers a major injury, or gets traded, there is no way Thomas Robinson averages anywhere close to 10 RPG. His TRB% his rookie season was 17.1. It was a little better (17.7) in the 19 games he played for Houston. That's better than average, but it's not close to "elite". Reggie Evans had a TRB% of 26.7, Omar Asik was at 22.0 and J.J. Hickson was at 20.7 - and those guys all did it as starters playing significant minutes. Unless he can make the jump from TRB% = 17.7 to > 20.0, he's not an elite rebounder.

And even if he does improve his TRB%, unless he plays starter like minutes, he won't average 10 rpg (or even 8 rpg). For example, last season DeMarcus Cousins had a TRB% of 18.7 (significantly better than Robinson's 17.1), played 30.5 MPG and did not average 10 RPG.

Think about that. Even if he did improve his TRB% AND play 30 MPG, he still probably wouldn't average 10 RPG. If he plays 15 - 18 MPG, even with a significantly improved TRB%, he'll be in the 6 - 7 RPG range max. That's actually quite good for a bench player, not not close to the 10 RPG you guys are talking about. Another way to look at it is: in 13.0 MPG for Houston, he averaged 4.1 RPG. At that same rate, if you bump his PT up to 18.0 MPG, he would average 5.68 RPG. So, like I said, unless he's playing starter minutes, it will take significant improvement just to get in the 6 - 7 RPG range. To average 10 RPG in only 18 minutes, he'd have to shatter the all-time TRB% record. He may be a good rebounder, but I'm not ready to predict he'll be the best rebounder in the entire history of the NBA in his second season as a pro.

BNM

So JJ Hickson rebounds at an elite rate at 20.7%, but as a rookie he had an anemic 13.9% TRB compared to Robinson's 17.1

Let's look at the players you mentioned.

Omer Asik - 18.1
JJ Hickson - 13.9
Reggie Evans - 19.2
DeMarcus Cousins - 17.2

So he has some work to do. Evans actually saw his % drop to 18.8 as a sophomore. Does Robinson rebound at the same level as these other guys? Not yet, but I think he could.

 

[jlprk]

Way, way, back, like when Emininem was in his 20s, I observed this simple rule of thumb: The NBA's top 2 or 4 rebounders (only statistically the top, since they are often substitutes) get 1 rebound every 3 minutes.

So the guys at the top of the "rebounds per minute" list, to average 10 rpg, will play 30 mpg. So it's impossible for a sub to average 10 rpg for a season.

 

[Natebishop3]

Way, way, back, like when Emininem was in his 20s, I observed this simple rule of thumb: The NBA's top 2 or 4 rebounders (only statistically the top, since they are often substitutes) get 1 rebound every 3 minutes.

So the guys at the top of the "rebounds per minute" list, to average 10 rpg, will play 30 mpg. So it's impossible for a sub to average 10 rpg for a season.

Right now he's averaging 8 rebounds per game. Impossible? Impossible you say? Nothing is impossible!

 

[jlprk]

Is Eminem the white rapper who cusses a lot, or is it the duo who lip-synched? I get them mixed up.

 

[jlprk]

Right now he's averaging 8 rebounds per game. Impossible? Impossible you say? Nothing is impossible!

Oh yeah? I smell a profitable bet! Aldridge is injured. Is Robinson getting starter's minutes?

 

[Wizard Mentor]

This preseason Thomas Robinson has had
40 rebounds in 98 minutes or 0.408 rebounds/minutes

My previous guess is that he gets 25 minutes/game.
Multiplying these two yields 10.2 rebounds/game.

I suppose you can make the argument that he's on some sort of temporary "rebounding tear", but it's an argument one would have to make. I don't think he'll get this high, but it's not completely outside the realm of possibility, though I cannot think of anyone ever averaging 10 rpg off the bench.

I like what I'm seeing from Thomas Robinson, but you guys need a serious reality check. Unless LaMarcus Aldridge suffers a major injury, or gets traded, there is no way Thomas Robinson averages anywhere close to 10 RPG. His TRB% his rookie season was 17.1. It was a little better (17.7) in the 19 games he played for Houston. That's better than average, but it's not close to "elite". Reggie Evans had a TRB% of 26.7, Omar Asik was at 22.0 and J.J. Hickson was at 20.7 - and those guys all did it as starters playing significant minutes. Unless he can make the jump from TRB% = 17.7 to > 20.0, he's not an elite rebounder.

And even if he does improve his TRB%, unless he plays starter like minutes, he won't average 10 rpg (or even 8 rpg). For example, last season DeMarcus Cousins had a TRB% of 18.7 (significantly better than Robinson's 17.1), played 30.5 MPG and did not average 10 RPG.

Think about that. Even if he did improve his TRB% AND play 30 MPG, he still probably wouldn't average 10 RPG. If he plays 15 - 18 MPG, even with a significantly improved TRB%, he'll be in the 6 - 7 RPG range max. That's actually quite good for a bench player, not not close to the 10 RPG you guys are talking about. Another way to look at it is: in 13.0 MPG for Houston, he averaged 4.1 RPG. At that same rate, if you bump his PT up to 18.0 MPG, he would average 5.68 RPG. So, like I said, unless he's playing starter minutes, it will take significant improvement just to get in the 6 - 7 RPG range. To average 10 RPG in only 18 minutes, he'd have to shatter the all-time TRB% record. He may be a good rebounder, but I'm not ready to predict he'll be the best rebounder in the entire history of the NBA in his second season as a pro.

BNM

 

[jlprk]

I said 2-4 players per year get 1 rebound every 3 minutes, but it's 7-10 players per year.

In the last 10 years, 98 (9.8 per year) have done it if you set this to minimum 200 minutes. 68 (6.8 per year) have done it if you set this to minimum 1000 minutes.

http://bkref.com/tiny/0rFU8

As for Robinson, this is only preseason, and as the season wears on, coaches will demand that he diversify his energies into a more rounded game.

 

[jlprk]

Ah, now I get 2.5 players per year if I set it to starter's minutes, 2200.

http://bkref.com/tiny/5JvYO

Here's what's relevant to your hope for Robinson. No one has averaged 10 rpg without averaging starter's minutes (more than half of 48 minutes).

http://bkref.com/tiny/JZday

 

[OneLifeToLive]

The fact is they had to give up something or two to get Howard. They basically did what the Lakers did in 96 when they signed Shaq. The Lakers traded, released players to free up the cap space to sign Shaq. I think this will pay for Houston. But the fact is, I love Thomas Robinson. I think he was nice pick up by this General Manager and I do think he pay dividends for Portland.

And its not all about scoring. I am thrilled with how he is effecting the game.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Guys,

I think Thomas Robinson was a great pick up. A real steal. But, a little more perspective:

Yes, he is averaging 8 RPG, but it's preseason, and a very small sample size of 5 games. He also plays the same position as our best player, who consistently averages between 36 and 39 MPG. Aldridge has missed 2 of the 5 games. That's the equivalent to missing 32 regular season games. And, in the three games Aldridge has played, he's only averaging 18.7 MPG. Does anyone think Aldridge will only average 18.7 MPG during the regular season? And all this yields 8 RPG for Robinson. Does anyone really think that playing behind Aldridge he's going to see enough PT to average anywhere near 10, or even 8 RPG?

BNM

 

[Natebishop3]

Guys,

I think Thomas Robinson was a great pick up. A real steal. But, a little more perspective:

Yes, he is averaging 8 RPG, but it's preseason, and a very small sample size of 5 games. He also plays the same position as our best player, who consistently averages between 36 and 39 MPG. Aldridge has missed 2 of the 5 games. That's the equivalent to missing 32 regular season games. And, in the three games Aldridge has played, he's only averaging 18.7 MPG. Does anyone think Aldridge will only average 18.7 MPG during the regular season? And all this yields 8 RPG for Robinson. Does anyone really think that playing behind Aldridge he's going to see enough PT to average anywhere near 10, or even 8 RPG?

BNM

Oh, at this point I'm just debating whether he has the ability to be an elite rebounder.

 

[jlprk]

If the goal is 8 rpg, then he has a chance. 0.7 players per year do it with under 24 mpg, but he can't be very far below 24. The majority were Blazers.

http://bkref.com/tiny/RLeOA

 

[PHXBlazer1]

Dwight Howard is past his prime, regardless of his age. Houston will never win a 'ship with him. Harden will always be their best player, and we got Robinson for nothing. I don't care about Houston fans.

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

Moses Malone sucked. After many years of coaching, he learned to jack up his stats with selfishness. He had ownership over every opportunity in his vicinity to rebound or score. Teammates had to stay out of the way.

When the Blazers had him years before that, he was 1% the player Walton was because of basketball IQ. Not knowing of Walton's future injuries, but knowing Malone would want a lot of money eventually yet need enormous coaching effort, the team traded him for more than they had given for him. (I recall it was 2 1sts for 1, but I could be wrong.)

It was never a question of keeping Walton over Malone - it was between keeping Lucas over Malone. Weinberger's wife loved Lucas...but it would have been nice to have had Malone only one year later as Walton went down when we were something like 58-10.