Exclusive How Crabbe's Deal Affects the Blazers Financial Future

[RR7]

I don't understand how by matching 18 a year for crabbe, people say our starting C making 2 million a year will have to go.

 

[Denny Crane]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/teams/por/salary



Looks to me like $28M available to sign CJ.

 

[Denny Crane]

I don't understand how by matching 18 a year for crabbe, people say our starting C making 2 million a year will have to go.

They're saying he'd have to go to get us under the tax next year. He'd have to go next year, not this

 

[Blazinaway]

Almost have to keep Plumlee with Ezeli's knee history

I agree with this, IMO the reason we got him at such a low price AND a team option for year two is likely his knees, playing him 20 min a night in a platoon system is likely the way to go and keepin Plums is insurance

 

[Mediocre Man]

If Ezeli doesn't pan out, we save $7M by not exercising our option.

I'm talking this year.

 

[Denny Crane]

I'm talking this year.

We have Plums this year. There's nothing to worry about.

 

[B-Roy]

I've decided to put the cap/tax sheet out on google docs. I think my formulas are pretty complete. Please let me know if there's anything that looks wrong.



Holy crap! didn't know you could embed linked google docs!

This is utterly ridiculous. Even if we don't match Crabbe we have to go into the luxury tax for THAT team??? (This is without even considering Leonard)

That team is not a title contender. The economics of the league means that rookie scale and max contract players are the most valuable. I can't see us keeping Plumlee beyond this year regardless of the Crabbe offer.

 

[Mediocre Man]

We have Plums this year. There's nothing to worry about.

You said you assumed we wouldn't keep Plums

 

[MarAzul]

Geez, I don't know why you guys need a calculator and process all the digits you can find!
20M is far to much to pay Crabbe. Let the Russian make the dude wealthy.

 

[Denny Crane]

You said you assumed we wouldn't keep Plums

I assume we won't when he's a FA.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

This is utterly ridiculous. Even if we don't match Crabbe we have to go into the luxury tax for THAT team??? (This is without even considering Leonard)

That team is not a title contender. The economics of the league means that rookie scale and max contract players are the most valuable. I can't see us keeping Plumlee beyond this year regardless of the Crabbe offer.

I tend to agree with you, once you see it laid out like that.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I assume we won't when he's a FA.

ah

 

[0-Our!]

If you pay $50,000 to get your 15 year old Geo Metro out of impounding, you didn't really keep an asset, you just wasted $49,500.

Moral of the story: let that "Geo Metro" be & let's find a Ford Fiesta to replace his/its ass!

 

[illmatic99]

If you pay $50,000 to get your 15 year old Geo Metro out of impounding, you didn't really keep an asset, you just wasted $49,500.

Not really a good analogy. If we let AC go, we don't have his 17-18 mil to throw at another replacement -- that number comes down to like 2-3.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

If we let Crabbe go but retain our other RFAs we will have the Mini-MLE (room exception some call it?) for 2.7 MIL to sign a replacement shooter.

Admittedly there are not a lot of exciting names out there but here are the top remaining swingmen (not saying they would all take that low of a price):
Gerald Green
Chase Budinger
Alan Anderson
Troy Daniels, restricted
Jason Terry
Wayne Ellington
Kevin Martin

 

[0-Our!]

Not really a good analogy. If we let AC go, we don't have his 17-18 mil to throw at another replacement -- that number comes down to like 2-3.

Gotcha. Still, THE thing that I would like most is if the offer sheet could somehow get torn up & then we got a S&T for him that involved RHJ & whatever; sadly... I've a bad feeling this won't happen

 

[PtldPlatypus]

If we let Crabbe go but retain our other RFAs we will have the Mini-MLE (room exception some call it?) for 2.7 MIL to sign a replacement shooter.

Admittedly there are not a lot of exciting names out there but here are the top remaining swingmen (not saying they would all take that low of a price):
Gerald Green
Chase Budinger
Alan Anderson
Troy Daniels, restricted
Jason Terry
Wayne Ellington
Kevin Martin

I would take Kevin Martin off our bench, for sure.

 

[0-Our!]

I would take Kevin Martin off our bench, for sure.

@ this point... I'd take/accept his often injured-ass too

 

[illmatic99]

I would take Kevin Martin off our bench, for sure.

As a 15 mpg spot player, that's not a bad idea.

 

[rotary111]

Is now a good time to try and get Sabonis from OKC in a trade while their heads are spinning?

Somebody mentioned that Marcus Smart might be available. Maybe a 3 way that lands us both would be nice.

Crabbe to OKC and Ed / Leonard to Boston with fillers..?????

Just not sure I can watch him in a jersey other than ours. Especially if he develops like I think he will.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Is now a good time to try and get Sabonis from OKC in a trade while their heads are spinning?

Somebody mentioned that Marcus Smart might be available. Maybe a 3 way that lands us both would be nice.

Crabbe to OKC and Ed / Leonard to Boston with fillers..?????

Just not sure I can watch him in a jersey other than ours. Especially if he develops like I think he will.

If we match Crabbe, we can't trade him until December.

OKC isn't dealing Sabonis.

Trading for Smart would be great, if we have anything Boston wants. Plumlee, perhaps?

 

[OSUBlazerfan]

If I was the GM, I'd probably try to find a home for Plums until Sunday. If I can't get at least a 1st for him, I keep him, and don't match Crabbe. If we can trade Plums, you keep Crabbe

 

[KeepOnRollin]

If I was the GM, I'd probably try to find a home for Plums until Sunday. If I can't get at least a 1st for him, I keep him, and don't match Crabbe. If we can trade Plums, you keep Crabbe

I think this is most likely what POR is at least considering.

 

[tester551]

Not really a good analogy. If we let AC go, we don't have his 17-18 mil to throw at another replacement -- that number comes down to like 2-3.

Which is much closer to what he's worth.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

This has probably been answered about 10 times in this thread, but I'm feeling lazy: if we match Brooklyn's offer, can we immediately trade Crabbe to (say) Philly? Or is that prohibited?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

This has probably been answered about 10 times in this thread, but I'm feeling lazy: if we match Brooklyn's offer, can we immediately trade Crabbe to (say) Philly? Or is that prohibited?

Nope--can't trade him until 12/15, and can't trade him to NJ, or anywhere else without his permission, for the entire first year.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Nope--can't trade him until 12/15, and can't trade him to NJ, or anywhere else without his permission, for the entire first year.

Which I think is fair.

 

[Denny Crane]

Nope--can't trade him until 12/15, and can't trade him to NJ, or anywhere else without his permission, for the entire first year.

We can trade him anywhere after the season, and before the LT calculations are made for the following season.

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

Match Crabbe and let him start next to Dame. Trade Lennard and CJ for Cousins.

Be sure to sign Hark

Done

 

[Blazinaway]

Here's a great summary of the Blazers cap situation if we match Crabbe - that to "Wiz" at another board

"I just wanted to take a little more detailed look at what Portland's cap situation could be next season

Damian Lillard $26,153,057
Evan Turner $17,131,148
Al-Farouq Aminu $7,319,035
Ed Davis $6,352,531
C.J. McCollum $25,000,000 (guess)
Anderson Varejao (stretched) $1,984,005
Jake Layman $905,249
Festus Ezeli $7,400,000
2017 1st round pick $1,500,000
Allen Crabbe $19,000,000
Mo Harkless $13,000,000 (guess)

126.5 million with a projected luxury tax threshold somewhere below 122 million. And that's only for 9 actual players. Notice that there are only 2 bigs there, with a 3rd being Aminu as a stretch-4. (Plumlee, Meyers, Vonleh, & Connaughton are not there) Even filling out the rest of the roster with veteran minimum types would still add 6-10 million more in salary and twice that (or more) in tax

and that team there is not anything close to a contender. Depending on who else they add, it might barely be a playoff team and could be lottery

even if you delete Crabbe's contract, the Blazers are still going to be tight against the luxury tax. Maybe tighter if Harkless gets a bigger offer. Just because the cap jumped dramatically doesn't mean mathematical correlations have changed. At the base of the problem here is that Portland will very likely be paying Dame-CJ-Turner 70 million a year. Forget about that being close to 70% of the cap, the more important ratio is that it will be 57-60% of the room between 0 and the tax threshold. Those guys will be Portland's 'big-3' and I just don't think the rest of the league will be scared of that big-3

I don't know if Olshey will match Crabbe's offer or not. I can't come up with any logical reason why he should but we know logic might not control this decision

I know it's Paul Allen's money. If he's ok paying gagillions in luxury tax, then oh well.

I think another potential problem, and it could be huge, is if there's a lockout or a strike next July 1. If/when that's resolved it's very likely the luxury tax will be even more punitive then it is now. So teams carrying a high payroll may be in even deeper doodoo. There will probably be some kind of amnesty provision but that's not certain

personally, I think people know where I stand on this: don't match Crabbe's deal and let Meyers walk. I'd even set a limit on how much to match a Harkless offer and it would probably be in the 14-15 million range."