How do we tank now?

[Phatguysrule]

Lol I know the odds. I just don't value Harper, Bailey or Edgecombe on a Blazers specific board as highly most here clearly do.

Flagg is so above and beyond the rest of this class in my eyes where I do view it close Flagg and everyone else type of draft.

If Flagg is that great then we want every opportunity to get him.

And even if we miss out on him, we want every opportunity to pick the next best player.

Nothing we can possibly gain by winning games this season is worth close to as much as adding assets like that.

We don't have enough to win. We're going to need as many assets as possible to trade ourselves over the top.

I'm not saying don't enjoy the basketball, but understand that we're shooting ourselves in the foot.

 

[kjironman1]

How about they try to win while good teams sit all their best players and get a few more wins so they decrease their lotto odds. Then they can keep Simons, Grant and Ayton because those are the core you want to build around for sure.
Then they can keep playing Scoot Sharpe and Deni off the bench in limited minutes so they don't improve faster so they don't have to give any of them max contracts. Then the team can save some more money and not sign a difference maker. They can also proceed with the plans to raise ticket prices for next year because the team might be good enough to compete for a play in spot.

Or maybe someone could convince Jody to sell the team?

 

[wizenheimer]

Then they can keep Simons, Grant and Ayton because those are the core you want to build around for sure.

lol

big-3 "cores"

SGA-Jalen Williams-Holmgren (Hartenstein)
Jokic-Murray-Gordon (Porter jr)
Lebron-Doncic-Reaves
Morant-Jaren Jackson-Bane
Sengun-Green-VanVleet (Amen)
Curry-Butler-Wiggins (Draymond)
Mitchell-Garland-Mobley
Tatum-Brown-Jrue (White/Pritchard)
Brunson-Kat-Bridges (Hart/OG)
Banchero-Wagner-Suggs

Simons-Ayton-Grant

one of those is not like the others

 

[e_blazer]

Exactly. I can't believe people have so much trouble grasping this...

“Trouble grasping”. LOL, Phats. You’ve dropped this before on people (myself included) who have a different take than you on this topic. It’s just a tad condescending.

I have taken more than enough statistics classes and still have enough functioning brain cells to understand that a 7% chance at a top-4 pick isn’t as good as a 40% chance. If that was all there was to a team-rebuilding algorithm, and if it yielded consistent success, then the path forward would be as single-minded as you have consistently portrayed it to be. But it’s not.

Let’s look at one of the last can’t miss drafts - 2018. If the “algorithm” worked, then Ayton would still be with the Suns and they would be celebrating multiple titles with a Big 3 of Ayton, Durant, and Booker. Marvin Bagley wouldn’t have been a bust. Doncic would still be with the Mavs competing for titles with Kyrie as his running mate instead of being jettisoned because they didn’t want to pay super-max dollars on a guy who’s nickname could be “Pudge” and who is always injured. Jaren Jackson is a nice player, but the Grizzlies are still not truly challenging for a title despite Ja’s brilliance. Meanwhile, the best guy out of that draft, SGA, was picked at 11 , is an MVP front-runner, and has guided his team to the top of the West. He was acquired by the Thunder (a small-market team) by trade…not through the draft. The picking of draft prospects isn’t a science and the history of top-4 players is replete with busts.

The Blazers have a young roster that they are still evaluating to see just how strong it can become. Playing to try to make the play-in gives valuable experience and lets management see how players handle pressure. After the meltdown in OKC, they may decide it’s time to pull the plug on this season and go full-on tank. I’m fine with that if they do. I also understand that there is more than one way to skin the rebuild cat. None of them are certain. We don’t know what trades of picks or players Cronin may be discussing or be contemplating for the offseason. I only know that tanking, while sometimes smart, is always demoralizing. Players deserve a chance to compete.

 

[Phatguysrule]

“Trouble grasping”. LOL, Phats. You’ve dropped this before on people (myself included) who have a different take than you on this topic. It’s just a tad condescending.

I have taken more than enough statistics classes and still have enough functioning brain cells to understand that a 7% chance at a top-4 pick isn’t as good as a 40% chance. If that was all there was to a team-rebuilding algorithm, and if it yielded consistent success, then the path forward would be as single-minded as you have consistently portrayed it to be. But it’s not.

Let’s look at one of the last can’t miss drafts - 2018. If the “algorithm” worked, then Ayton would still be with the Suns and they would be celebrating multiple titles with a Big 3 of Ayton, Durant, and Booker. Marvin Bagley wouldn’t have been a bust. Doncic would still be with the Mavs competing for titles with Kyrie as his running mate instead of being jettisoned because they didn’t want to pay super-max dollars on a guy who’s nickname could be “Pudge” and who is always injured. Jaren Jackson is a nice player, but the Grizzlies are still not truly challenging for a title despite Ja’s brilliance. Meanwhile, the best guy out of that draft, SGA, was picked at 11 , is an MVP front-runner, and has guided his team to the top of the West. He was acquired by the Thunder (a small-market team) by trade…not through the draft. The picking of draft prospects isn’t a science and the history of top-4 players is replete with busts.

The Blazers have a young roster that they are still evaluating to see just how strong it can become. Playing to try to make the play-in gives valuable experience and lets management see how players handle pressure. After the meltdown in OKC, they may decide it’s time to pull the plug on this season and go full-on tank. I’m fine with that if they do. I also understand that there is more than one way to skin the rebuild cat. None of them are certain. We don’t know what trades of picks or players Cronin may be discussing or be contemplating for the offseason. I only know that tanking, while sometimes smart, is always demoralizing. Players deserve a chance to compete.

My point was in response to the "#1 pick or bust idea". It's not "#1 pick or bust". I'm sorry if that comes off as condescending, but that's just insane. To the point of being dishonest to even suggest you're arguing against that position.

And no. Our young guys are gaining nothing valuable this season that they wouldn't have gained by being starting and playing leading roles for an smart basketball coach while losing 60-65 games due to lack of experience, but while gaining the valuable experience of being the cornerstones.

And if you've taken statistics classes you should know that the anecdotal evidence you cited is included in the calculations that tell us you're 2 or 3 times more likely to draft an All-Star in the top 4-5 than the rest of the lottery.

And you're literally rolling dice if you aren't in the lottery.

Lottery picks all-star probability since 1989:

1. 21/30 = 70%

2. 13/30 = 43.3%

3. 18/30 = 60%

4. 11/30 = 36.7%

5. 12/30 = 30%

6. 6/30 = 20%

7. 5/30 = 16.7%

8. 1/30 = 3.3%

9. 10/30 = 33.3%

10. 8/30 = 26.7%

11. 6/30 = 20%

12. 1/30 = 3.3%

13. 5/30 = 16.7 %

14. 3/30 = 10%

The specifics of your anecdotes aren't relevant. Talent rules all in the NBA. In order to trade for talent you have to send out talent. In order to sign talent you have to have more money than anybody else or be a destination city.

We do not have more talent than other teams our age. We don't have more talent than most teams in general.

We are not a destination city.

We are not going to have more money to spend on free agents than anybody else.

Drafting talent is really the only thing we have. And right now we have the opportunity to do that at a higher level than almost everybody else because we are so young.

We are squandering that opportunity. And that is disappointing.

 

[JDC]

My point was in response to the "#1 pick or bust idea". It's not "#1 pick or bust". I'm sorry if that comes off as condescending, but that's just insane. To the point of being dishonest to even suggest you're arguing against that position.

And no. Our young guys are gaining nothing valuable this season that they wouldn't have gained by being starting and playing leading roles for an smart basketball coach while losing 60-65 games due to lack of experience, but while gaining the valuable experience of being the cornerstones.

And if you've taken statistics classes you should know that the anecdotal evidence you cited is included in the calculations that tell us you're 2 or 3 times more likely to draft an All-Star in the top 4-5 than the rest of the lottery.

And you're literally rolling dice if you aren't in the lottery.

Lottery picks all-star probability since 1989:

1. 21/30 = 70%

2. 13/30 = 43.3%

3. 18/30 = 60%

4. 11/30 = 36.7%

5. 12/30 = 30%

6. 6/30 = 20%

7. 5/30 = 16.7%

8. 1/30 = 3.3%

9. 10/30 = 33.3%

10. 8/30 = 26.7%

11. 6/30 = 20%

12. 1/30 = 3.3%

13. 5/30 = 16.7 %

14. 3/30 = 10%

The specifics of your anecdotes aren't relevant. Talent rules all in the NBA. In order to trade for talent you have to send out talent. In order to sign talent you have to have more money than anybody else or be a destination city.

We do not have more talent than other teams our age. We don't have more talent than most teams in general.

We are not a destination city.

We are not going to have more money to spend on free agents than anybody else.

Drafting talent is really the only thing we have. And right now we have the opportunity to do that at a higher level than almost everybody else because we are so young.

We are squandering that opportunity. And that is disappointing.

We were never going to be bottom 4 bad.

The young guys were going to make a jump and the defensive talent was too good. Just came around later than we thought.

Oh and 5th-8th has worse odds at a star that 9th-12th.

 

[Phatguysrule]

We were never going to be bottom 4 bad.

The young guys were going to make a jump and the defensive talent was too good. Just came around later than we thought.

Oh and 5th-8th has worse odds at a star that 9th-12th.

Completely disagree. We could have easily kept it under 15 to 20 wins. We would have lost far more games early and would have come on later.

And if we were playing other young guys instead of Grant and Ayton our defense and rebounding wouldn't be nearly as good yet. This would cost us a lot of wins.

Simon's, Grant, and Ayton have easily gotten us an extra 9 or 10 wins that we wouldn't have gotten otherwise. That would put us right at the bottom of the standings.

And we wouldn't have to be giving the young guys mixed signals by punishing Sharpe for not playing capable defense while rewarding Simons for playing even worse defense.

That's horrible. Inexcusable.

 

[JDC]

Completely disagree. We could have easily kept it under 15 to 20 wins. We would have lost far more games early and would have come on later.

And if we were playing other young guys instead of Grant and Ayton our defense and rebounding wouldn't be nearly as good yet. This would cost us a lot of wins.

Simon's, Grant, and Ayton have easily gotten us an extra 9 or 10 wins that we wouldn't have gotten otherwise. That would put us right at the bottom of the standings.

And we wouldn't have to be giving the young guys mixed signals by punishing Sharpe for not playing capable defense while rewarding Simons for playing even worse defense.

That's horrible. Inexcusable.

Ant, Grant and DA were all playing awful to start the year.

I think there is a easy argument to be made that playing Scoot, DB (who was one of the only guys that had a positive plus minus in the first 30 games of the year), DC, Kris and starting Deni and giving him the rope he has now to start the year would have led to even more wins.

Incredibly easy.

The margin between our top and bottom end talent 1-11 is so incredibly thin.

 

[Cugel]

Look for Joe to trade the pick. I could see him swinging for the fences thinking his roster is “close”.

And by swinging for the fences a player like Sabonis. All in on Sabonis. I think it is a horrible idea but most of Joe’s moves are. Whether it’s home or the Vulcans isnt the point

 

[Phatguysrule]

Ant, Grant and DA were all playing awful to start the year.

I think there is a easy argument to be made that playing Scoot, DB (who was one of the only guys that had a positive plus minus in the first 30 games of the year), DC, Kris and starting Deni and giving him the rope he has now to start the year would have led to even more wins.

Incredibly easy.

The margin between our top and bottom end talent 1-11 is so incredibly thin.

In that scenario we'd have much more valuable young assets to pair with our albatross contracts.

The situation you're describing is far better than the course of action we've taken.

 

[JDC]

In that scenario we'd have much more valuable young assets to pair with our albatross contracts.

The situation you're describing is far better than the course of action we've taken.

Or those albatross contracts then become even bigger albatrosses and we have to package them with our more valuable young players...

We could play this game all day.

Agree to disagree on this one

 

[Phatguysrule]

Or our albatross contracts then become even bigger albatrosses and we have to package them with our more valuable young players...

We could play this game all day.

They wouldn't be making more money. So they would not be more of an albatross. The only difference is our younger players would have played more and been more valuable (in the scenario in which we win more with them than we did with Ant, Grant, and Ayton). Those vets could even make up injury excuses if they wanted.

And our star younger players would have more confidence, be further along in their development, and likely have better value as well.

There is no scenario in which what we have done is the best move for the long-term future of this team.

 

[HoopsFanAZ]

https://ripcityproject.com/trail-blazers-repeat-wizards-costly-mistake-deni-avdija

1. Veterans were needed this season to have functional play so that the young guys would get productive minutes and have good growth.
2. Trades of at least some of the best veterans for timeline, fit, youth, and trade assets did not happen last summer or February.
3. The salary structure of the team needs restructuring prior to Scoot, Sharpe, Deni, Toumani, and Clingan getting paid. [AND the training wheels can come off … the bumpers removed or widened on their lanes. Pick your metaphor.]

This is all a way of saying that the logic has been there for a tank BUT they did too well and now NEED to have veterans sit (with minutes limited for those who can play) to be healthy for the summer/trades.

CURRENTLY at #10 for the lottery, they could reasonably get to 8. IMHO, Cronin should go for 8 and play the young guys.

 

[MickZagger]

Very carefully

 

[KingSpeed]

If Flagg is that great then we want every opportunity to get him.

And even if we miss out on him, we want every opportunity to pick the next best player.

Nothing we can possibly gain by winning games this season is worth close to as much as adding assets like that.

We don't have enough to win. We're going to need as many assets as possible to trade ourselves over the top.

I'm not saying don't enjoy the basketball, but understand that we're shooting ourselves in the foot.

We lost our last two games. By your definition, how are we shooting ourselves in the foot?

 

[KingSpeed]

https://ripcityproject.com/trail-blazers-repeat-wizards-costly-mistake-deni-avdija

1. Veterans were needed this season to have functional play so that the young guys would get productive minutes and have good growth.
2. Trades of at least some of the best veterans for timeline, fit, youth, and trade assets did not happen last summer or February.
3. The salary structure of the team needs restructuring prior to Scoot, Sharpe, Deni, Toumani, and Clingan getting paid. [AND the training wheels can come off … the bumpers removed or widened on their lanes. Pick your metaphor.]

This is all a way of saying that the logic has been there for a tank BUT they did too well and now NEED to have veterans sit (with minutes limited for those who can play) to be healthy for the summer/trades.

CURRENTLY at #10 for the lottery, they could reasonably get to 8. IMHO, Cronin should go for 8 and play the young guys.

The young guys have been playing. Grant is the only “old guy” and he’s been out of the lineup til last game.

 

[Phatguysrule]

We lost our last two games. By your definition, how are we shooting ourselves in the foot?

Oh that's not a judgment based on the current game. It is based on the current season.

I assume we're still actively trying to make the playoffs. Which is insane to even contemplate at any point this season.

 

[Ripcity4life77]

Time to tank - period

This is the right answer and any other answer and that fan(s) need to be educated cause even if a 1st pick is a longshot maybe even just getting the 2nd to 3rd pick is solid too it's not JUST a chance a Flagg even if he is the prize of the draft.

 

[Natebishop3]

lol

big-3 "cores"

SGA-Jalen Williams-Holmgren (Hartenstein)
Jokic-Murray-Gordon (Porter jr)
Lebron-Doncic-Reaves
Morant-Jaren Jackson-Bane
Sengun-Green-VanVleet (Amen)
Curry-Butler-Wiggins (Draymond)
Mitchell-Garland-Mobley
Tatum-Brown-Jrue (White/Pritchard)
Brunson-Kat-Bridges (Hart/OG)
Banchero-Wagner-Suggs

Simons-Ayton-Grant

one of those is not like the others

But what about Scoot/Shae/Deni?

 

[wizenheimer]

But what about Scoot/Shae/Deni?

I was replying to the statement:

"Then they can keep Simons, Grant and Ayton because those are the core you want to build around for sure."

(it may have been sarcasm by kj...my meter is on the fritz)

as for Scoot/Shae/Deni, they'd all have to improve a remarkable amount to be a big 3

 

[HoopsFanAZ]

Just a reminder of the odds of getting a top 4 pick:
8: 26.3%
9: 20.27%
10: 13.88%

 

[blazerkor]

Just a reminder of the odds of getting a top 4 pick:
8: 26.3%
9: 20.27%
10: 13.88%

It would definitely behoove us to sit a bunch of guys when we play Toronto and Washington on Sunday and Monday. We should also sit the majority of our roatation players the entire month of April (the last 7 games of the season).

I think that would result in us losing out or maybe only picking up one more win. I also think it would secure us the 8th spot in the lotto.

 

[KingSpeed]

Time to tank - period

This is the right answer and any other answer and that fan(s) need to be educated cause even if a 1st pick is a longshot maybe even just getting the 2nd to 3rd pick is solid too it's not JUST a chance a Flagg even if he is the prize of the draft.

Chances of getting 2nd or 3rd pick is low too. It’s not up to the fans to decide whether or not we should tank. As long as they’re trying to win, I’m rooting for them to do so.

 

[Trailblazers76]

Four straight L's since I made this post. Let's go Blazer nation! In Joe we trust.