How good is Batum really going to be?

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How good is Nicolas Batum going to be?

  • Scottie Pippen

    Votes: 12 17.1%

  • Gerald Wallace

    Votes: 3 4.3%

  • Stacey Augmon

    Votes: 9 12.9%

  • Tayshaun Prince

    Votes: 44 62.9%

  • Jerome Kersey

    Votes: 2 2.9%
  • Total voters
    70
I

Iwatas

Blazers Fan
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The whole SF question hinges on whether Batum is going to be so good that he cannot be denied starter minutes.

To that end, I'd like to know from all the Blazer Homers: how good is Batum really going to be? I include rookie-year stats for each player, for comparison purposes (though each of the below was older than Batum their rookie year):

Scottie-Pippen HOF good
30mpg, 46%/71%/5.2 boards/2.4 assists/1 stl/1blk/2.6TOs 10 ppg

Gerald Wallace
8 mpg, 43%/50%/1.6 boards/0.5 assists/0.3/0.1/0.4 3.2 ppg

Tayshaun Prince
10.4mpg, 44%/65% (43% threes)/1.1 boards/0.6/0.2/0.3/0.5 3.3 ppg

Jerome Kersey
12.4mpg, 48%/65%/ 2.7 boards/0.8 assists/0.6 steals/0.4 blocks/0.9 TOs 6 PPG

Stacey Augmon
30.5mpg 49%/66%/5.1 boards/2.5assists/1.5 steals/0.3 blocks/ 2.21TOs 13.3 ppg

?

For comparison purposes, in just 6 games, Batum's numbers are:

Nicolas Batum
16.5mpg 47%/100% (40% threes)/ 2.5 boards/0.7 assists/1.2 steals/0.7 blocks/1TO 6.2 ppg.


In terms of offensive performance, his numbers are VERY close to Jerome's, but Jerome was a poorer defender and had a more muscular game. For my part, Batum looks a LOT like the rookie Augmon. 6'8", fiendishly long arms, famous defense. Batum has 2x the number of steals/48, which is astonishing.

Augmon, if we recall, never came close to his potential, and spent most of his career as a backup SF. In part, I think, it is because he was a slacker without a high basketball IQ -- both seem to be quite different to Batum.

BUT -- and I stress this. Batum's /48 numbers are not that different from Scottie Pippen's rookie numbers *either*, which is a surprise to me. If anything, Batum is a better defender. Do I get struck down by lightning for even suggesting such a thing? Though Pippen's playmaking talent was better than any SF who ever played the game, and Batum does not show that.

My bet is that we have an Augmon/Prince kind of SF on our hands, and to even hope for a HOF career is silly. Batum's percentage for threes means he is a better shooter, already, than Kersey or Augmon ever were - and probably include Wallace in that.

That leads us back to Tayshaun Prince.

What do y'all think? And if you agree that he is going to be our starter for years to come, then it means that either (or both) Trout and Webster are gone by February.

iWatas
 
Last edited:
MrJayremmie said:
I really like the Prince comparison.
Click to expand...

Batum's PER so far this year: 16.8
Prince's PER his rookie season: 11.7

If we think Batum is another Prince, then clearly Batum is far ahead of where Prince was as a rookie.

iWatas
 
there are a lot of things similar physically about Prince and Augmon, but the biggest difference skills-wise is that TP has a far superior J. Largely because of this deficiency, Stacey was only a lessor rotation level player after leaving the lowly Hawks where he started his NBA career.

It's a little early for me to say how good Batum's outside jumper is... his unconventional form gives the impression that his shot is worse then the results he's been enjoying thus far (sort of the opposite of Webster). Of course I'm sure we'd all like NB's results to continue to pan out to be more Prince-esk then like Augmon, as being the guy at 3 pretty much requires that he can spread the court/keep the D honest. He's certainly given us Blazer fans a lot to be optimistic about.

STOMP
 
PER Comparisons for all these players their rookie years:

Prince: 11.7
Pippen: 12.9
Wallace: 13.3
Kersey: 15.3
Augmon: 14.4

Batum: 16.7

And our own SFs? Webster was 11.6 (last year a 12.0), and Trout was 16.4 Rookie, and 18.6 now.

There is absolutely no question in my mind that KP is awesome. And that Batum will remain the starting SF on this team.

iWatas
 
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Tyrus Thomas' rookie PER was better than LMA's.

Don't go there.
 
On Defense I would Scottie Pippen -- I think he will be that good on defense. On Offense -- Tayshaun Prince.
 
Batum is really finding his form - he flows in a game a lot better than Webster or Travis do and he is a lot quicker than one would expect.

I think he is our SF of the future. I just hope we can keep Travis as our offensive punch off the bench (with Rudy unless Rudy gets to start some games).
 
I put as good as Gerald Wallace. I really don't think his game will be similar at all, but I thought by the question you meant on which of these players level will he be on... And i think Wallace is a little better than Prince, and I think Batum is on his way to being better than Prince but not as good as Pippen...

so kinda on Wallace's level with Prince's characteristics or somethin' like that.
 
If Batum develops a reliable jumpshot, the sky's the limit. He's so productive at such a young age that, if I knew he would develop the jumper, I'd definitely project him beyond Prince and probably Wallace, too.

But since that development is very uncertain, and a key aspect to a perimeter player's game, I'll split the difference between his productivity at a young age and missing an important factor and project him to around Prince's level.

Another negative comparison would be Mickael Pietrus. I felt he looked great early on, as he was a very good defender and had the tools to be a tremendous offensive player, though he had little offensive game at the time. But several years later, he still had developed no polished offensive game and seems set to follow a Stacey Augmon career path...defensive specialist role-player.
 
Iwatas said:
PER Comparisons for all these players their rookie years:

Prince: 11.7
Pippen: 12.9
Wallace: 13.3
Kersey: 15.3
Augmon: 14.4

Batum: 16.7

And our own SFs? Webster was 11.6 (last year a 12.0), and Trout was 16.4 Rookie, and 18.6 now.

There is absolutely no question in my mind that KP is awesome. And that Batum will remain the starting SF on this team.

iWatas
Click to expand...

I think the sample size (6 games) is much too small to read much into Batum's stats right now.

Yes, he is off to a good start. But, we Blazer fans who have seen the games, know without looking at stats that Batum has been playing well.

I don't think anybody is arguing that he hasn't. That is not the question. The question is can Batum continue, or (dream) even build on his early success, thus, as you say, forcing his way onto the starting lineup at the age of 19? Which would be quite improbable.

Nobody knows the answer to that question. Not us. Not McMillan. Not KP. Nobody. We need more data.

I also think PER numbers for limited minutes played are not accurate. They can be fun to look at, but there are too many examples of players in limited minutes as rookies that had PER numbers much lower or higher than what they ended up with for their careers.

Only Pippen and Augmon got many minutes. You pretty much have to disgard the other numbers. Not enough data.

Augmon's PER numbers turned out to be predictive. Pippen was raw and wild and tried to do a lot with the ball and help with his defense. His defense and potential kept him on the floor. But his turnovers and lack of shot attempts killed his rookie PER number.
 
MrJayremmie said:
I really like the Prince comparison.
Click to expand...

+1

princebatum.jpg
 
Iwatas said:
The whole SF question hinges on whether Batum is going to be so good that he cannot be denied starter minutes.

To that end, I'd like to know from all the Blazer Homers: how good is Batum really going to be? I include rookie-year stats for each player, for comparison purposes (though each of the below was older than Batum their rookie year):
Click to expand...

Minor nitpick, but Gerald Wallace was younger as a rookie than Batum is. Batum will be 20 in December, while Wallace only turned 19 the July before his rookie year.

Ed O.
 
I say Prince. He is not an all-star, but he is a major player on the defensive side of the ball. Watching Batum play defense is fun. He is not a Keon Clark in terms of a one tool block machine, he is a Prince in how he makes timely defensive plays. He is also great at running the floor. I hope that in ten years a new generation of Blazer fans looks at Batum like my generation remembers Jerome Kersey. The heart and soul of hustle and defense.
 
Denny Crane said:
http://www.82games.com/0607/06CHI10C.HTM

Thomas PER 16.3 at PF

http://www.82games.com/0607/06POR13C.HTM

Aldridge PER 16.4 at PF
Click to expand...

You're still wrong. 16.4 > 16.3

And, Aldridge spent the majority of his minutes as a rookie at center where his PER was 19.1.

In no measurable, or subjective way, did Tyrus Thomas have a better rookie year than LaMarcus Aldridge.

PER isn't a perfect metric - especially with a limited data set, but in this example the better player had the better PER.

BNM
 
A better passing Tayshuan Prince. Mike Rice said team doctors say he's not done growing. "He's 6'9" now but will be 6'10" when he stops growing."


Monty Williams has his own comparison: Bobby Jones

11841259.jpg
 
I was also going to mention Prince, in the sens that they are both long, good defenders, who have developed a shot although are not ever going to be considered a primary ball-handler or scorer on a team. Batum is in that mold, I think, although I would be happy for him to progress further.

Let's not forget. Price was a rookie after four years at Kentucky and was several years older than Batum. I'm very happy with Batum's development, although I am not surprised as he was suggested as a top-5 player in the year leading up to the draft.
 
BalancedMan said:
I was also going to mention Prince, in the sens that they are both long, good defenders, who have developed a shot although are not ever going to be considered a primary ball-handler or scorer on a team. Batum is in that mold, I think, although I would be happy for him to progress further.

Let's not forget. Price was a rookie after four years at Kentucky and was several years older than Batum. I'm very happy with Batum's development, although I am not surprised as he was suggested as a top-5 player in the year leading up to the draft.
Click to expand...

In the few games that I have been able to watch (thanks Comcast), I think if the Blazers develope a faster paced game he will be better than Tayshon. He runs tha floor so well and finishes well. He may turn out to be a lot better than we think IMO.

g
 
Rookie Season Batum vs Pippen
Per 48 Minutes

Points
Batum 19.3
Pippen 18.2

Rebounds
Batum 3.6 + 4.3 = 7.9
Pippen 3.3 + 5.3 = 8.7

Steals
Batum 2.9
Pippen 2.6

Blocks
Batum 1.8
Pippen 1.5

Assists
Batum 2.7
Pippen 2.9

Turn Overs
Batum 2.1
Pippen 3.8

Shooting (2P%, 3P%, FG%, FT%)
Batum 53.3% 42.9% 48.3% 66.7%
Pippen 47.4% 17.4% 46.2% 57.6%

Efficiency (Points / (FGA + 0.5 x FTA)
Batum 59.0%
Pippen 48.0%

Simplified PER-like Rating
Batum 13.8
Pippen 10.1 (followed by 11.3, 13.3, 16.8.... carreer 14.2)

Notable Differences
Pippen got to the free throw line 3x as often per 48 while turning it over almost 2x as often. Much more of Batum's scoring comes from the 3-point line. Batum's offensive efficiency is much higher that Pippen's was (and even higher than Pippen's carreer). Much of that is due to Batum's good 3-point shooting and the sample size is still too small there (as is the whole sample size for Batum) but if he continues to improve he is gonna be awesome.
 
Holy cow.. Great post... i'm in awe. I think he may have a chance guys....
 
19-year-old Pippen couldn't carry 19-year-old Nico's water bottle. Of course, Pip was a bit of a late bloomer (iirc he grew 6 inches or something in college) and it remains to be seen if Nico has anything close to Pip's drive, competitiveness and determination (had Nico even seen a weight room before he got here?).

Only time will tell.

Go Blazers!
 
I like the Augmon comparison...for now. I may revise it as Nic develops his game.

If Batum ends up with an Augmon-type career, I would be thrilled, but I certainly don't cap his ceiling at that comparison.
 
I have no expectations of Nic being anywhere as good as Pip was - but if he does - it will be great.

I do expect him to be somewhere around Prince in his prime - which is terrific.
 
For me, it's amazing that he's improved so much since last December. I watched Le Mans play Armani (I was over in Paris), and I knew that Batum and Gallinari were the two draft prospects in the game. I was much higher on Gallinari after that game, b/c Nico couldn't/didn't stop him. I was one who didn't want to pick him at 13, though I said after the draft that 3M and one of our 3 2nd rounders would be a decent price for the risk/reward (and for darned sure a better pick for me than Arthur).

Then summer league came along, and he looked lost again. Then KP said at the M&G in October that we'd all be surprised, Batum was already starter-level on D, and just needed to show he could hang in the offensive flow. When asked about Batum going to the D-League, KP said we'd all be surprised; that Batum wasn't far behind Webs and Outlaw in terms of pushing them for minutes.

Now we're talking seriously about him being Scottie Pippen. All in 11 months.
 
Comparing Nico to Pip as rookies is interesting, but doesn't mean a lot. Rookie Pippen shouldn't have been expected to turn into what he did...he exceeded expectations based on his rookie numbers by a ton. Thus, one can't project a Pippen-like career for someone else who has a similar or better rookie season. Pippen beat the odds; by definition, you can't predict Batum will beat the odds.

Still, his excellent season at such a young age definitely gives him a great ceiling. Being a Tayshaun Prince would be immensely valuable. Batum has the chance to even exceed Prince. An 18.4 PER in a season he'll turn 20 in is awesome. Especially considering that he combines it with great defense.

Here's a comparison:

Age
Shawn Marion: 21
Nicolas Batum: 20

Points Per 36 Minutes
Shawn Marion: 14.9
Nicolas Batum: 14.5

Assists Per 36 Minutes
Shawn Marion: 2.0
Nicolas Batum: 2.0

Rebounds Per 36 Minutes
Shawn Marion: 9.5
Nicolas Batum: 5.9

Steals Per 36 Minutes
Shawn Marion: 1.1
Nicolas Batum: 2.1

Blocks Per 36 Minutes
Shawn Marion: 1.5
Nicolas Batum: 1.3

TS% (Scoring Efficiency)
Shawn Marion: .511
Nicolas Batum: .594

PER
Shawn Marion: 17.1
Nicolas Batum: 18.4

Extremely alike, except Marion had a huge edge in rebounding (Marion's been a historical freak through his career in rebounding) and Batum has the huge edge in scoring efficiency. And Marion was a year older as a rookie.
 
The only hesitation I had about Nicolas was a consistent outside shot before the season. The guy can definitely defend, rebound and do all the little things at the NBA level, but now Nicolas is showing he can hit the wide open 3, and he can cut and drive to the hoop. He can also consistently hit the mid-range jumper.

I love the way Batum is playing, he's fitting in perfectly with the starters and just doing his thing. Don't know if he has the leadership type skills that Pippen had, but Tayshaun Prince definitely.
 
I think is safe to say we have the best set of scout/talent evaluators in the league.
I am lovin Batum so far this season and his 3pt stroke is becoming better and better as each game progresses!
 
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