How much are our FAs worth?

[Scalma]

lets hear the guesses

I’ll start. Per.

Davis- $8m
Napier- $10m
Connaughton- $5m
Vonleh- $7m
Nurkic- $17-20m

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Davis gets Meyers money, $11 mill.

Napier gets 7 mill, a good backup, not a starter.

$5 mill sounds right for Pat. Congrats, he's earned it. He could have bailed for baseball but he believed in his NBA dream.

What do they pay for a PF in the Russia league? That's what Vonleh will get.

 

[H.C.]

Vonleh - Just as many questions as Nards had. Real is does he get a second contract.
Baseball player - Whats the average rate for a athletic 3 point shooter in the NBA right now?
Napier - 10mil
Davis - 10mil
Nurk - he might have question marks offensively, but defensively he has few. he's far better than Noel, who was offered 4/70.

 

[Scalma]

Davis gets Meyers money, $11 mill.

Napier gets 7 mill, a good backup, not a starter.

$5 mill sounds right for Pat. Congrats, he's earned it. He could have bailed for baseball but he believed in his NBA dream.

What do they pay for a PF in the Russia league? That's what Vonleh will get.

Any reason why Napier isn’t a starter? I see him as a good alternative for the teams that wanted Kemba, and I could list quite a few teams he could/should/would start on. I mean shit you give him the amount of shots Kemba gets and I don’t see why he couldn’t put up similar numbers.

 

[Scalma]

Vonleh - Just as many questions as Nards had. Real is does he get a second contract.
Baseball player - Whats the average rate for a athletic 3 point shooter in the NBA right now?
Napier - 10mil
Davis - 10mil
Nurk - he might have question marks offensively, but defensively he has few. he's far better than Noel, who was offered 4/70.

If we could get Nurk for 4/80-85m that’d be great considering Adams got 4/100m. The lack of market for centers will help.

 

[tester551]

How much will they get? Or how much do they dereve to get? That's 2 completely different questions.

My guess at what they will get.

Davis- $8-9M
Napier- $6-7M
Connaughton- $3-4M
Vonleh- $3-4M
Nurkic- $16-18M

 

[Natebishop3]

Who has cap space this summer?

Based on this spreadsheet
https://basketball.realgm.com/analy...Available-2018-Cap-Space-For-All-30-NBA-Teams

Atlanta will most likely have $14,510,343
Chicago will most likely have $37,631,336
Dallas will most likely have $18,705,345
Indy will most likely have $47,264,315
Lakers will most likely have $36,152,225

Those are the big players. If they renounce a bunch of deals some of those teams could go higher.

ATL could clear $44,051,771
Brooklyn could clear $37,874,757
Chicago could clear $60,232,538
Cleveland could clear $21,900,115
Dallas could clear $52,175,118
Denver could clear $49,074,668
Houston could clear $18,839,300
Indy could clear $57,190,878
The Clips could clear $38,163,626
The Lakers could clear $49,948,102
Minnesota could clear $21,422,715
The Knicks could clear $30,637,435
OKC could clear $44,245,068
Orlando could clear $21,461,177
Philly could clear $75,788,326
Phoenix could clear $36,646,315
SAC could clear $43,595,139
San Antonio could clear $41,604,178
Utah could clear $18,293,131

But that would require renouncing a lot of players, like OKC for example... they'd have to renounce PG and Melo. I don't see that happening. So we're looking at those first five teams as the biggest players in free agency this summer. The only team that might be interested in Bazz would be Indy. They have a lot of space. I could see them making a play at Bazz to be their starter next to Oladipo. Toss $10 million at him. I don't think we'd match that. I could actually see them throwing some money at Davis as well. Or Vonleh.

It will be interesting to see who clears space this summer. Potentially it could be a very slow market, or it could get crazy very fast if teams start clearing cap. Here are the 2018 free agent class.

http://hoopshype.com/2018/01/11/nba-free-agency-2018-the-top-players/

Durant
LeBron
Boogie
George
Isaiah Thomas
DeAndre Jordan
Aaron Gordon (restricted)
Clint Capela (restricted)
Jabari Parker (restricted)
Melo
Avery Bradley
Nikola Mirotic (team option)
Zach LaVine (restricted)
Enes Kanter
Derrick Favors
Wade
Tyreke Evans
Brook Lopez
Julius Randle (restricted)
Rodney Hood (restricted)
Marcus Smart (restricted)
Lou Williams
Greg Monroe
KCP
Rudy Gay
Trevor Ariza
Nurk
Elfrid Payton (restricted)
Thad Young
Kyle Anderson (restricted)
Will Barton
Tony Parker
Austin Rivers
JJ Redick
Wes Matthews
Dirk

Not a lot of point guards on that list. Not a lot of teams that could throw money at Nurk either, unless people start renouncing contracts. It will be an interesting summer. I think we could end up keeping Vonleh for cheap. I think Ed will get some offers from playoff teams. I'm not sure about Patty. I think Bazz has the highest chance of getting a decent offer.

 

[BonesJones]

Napier $10M
Davis- $9M
Connaughton- $5M
Vonleh- $5M
Nurkic- $12M-$15M

 

[Natebishop3]

If I'm Indy, I would call Chris Paul and tell him he has a better chance of winning in the East. I don't care what Houston does, they're not getting past the Warriors. It's not happening. Not even close.

I also think Indy might be our biggest competition for Nurk. They're playing Sabonis at center right now, but I think he's more of a power forward.

 

[HolyBackboard]

lets hear the guesses

I’ll start. Per.

Davis- $8m
Napier- $10m
Connaughton- $5m
Vonleh- $7m
Nurkic- $17-20m

$8m sounds about right for Ed, who could also give Portland a slight discount since he likes playing here (and by slight, I mean no more than $1m/per season)
$10m feels like the absolute max for Shabazz given how few starting PG jobs are out there, but I think it's within reason. $8-10 is my guess.
Right on the money with Pat ... maybe higher if he continues to improve his play.
Noah is the trickiest one of the bunch because he does have a ton of potential but he's not currently playing. I'll guess $4m since he's RFA
Gut feeling says $15-16 for Nurk but his market expanded with the injury to Boogie Cousins so that number could be closer to what you have above.

 

[Natebishop3]

Indy is one team that I could see throwing a contract at Vonleh. They went out and got Oladipo and that worked out for them. He's another Hoosier.

I think Thad Young is gone after this season. Sabonis could be their PFOTF, but Voneh has shown some promise and the last time they acquired a young Portland PF who hadn't shown much, it worked out for them.

 

[BonesJones]

If I'm Indy, I would call Chris Paul and tell him he has a better chance of winning in the East. I don't care what Houston does, they're not getting past the Warriors. It's not happening. Not even close.

I also think Indy might be our biggest competition for Nurk. They're playing Sabonis at center right now, but I think he's more of a power forward.

They have Myles Turner, why would they sign Nurk...

 

[Sarni]

If I'm Indy, I would call Chris Paul and tell him he has a better chance of winning in the East. I don't care what Houston does, they're not getting past the Warriors. It's not happening. Not even close.

I also think Indy might be our biggest competition for Nurk. They're playing Sabonis at center right now, but I think he's more of a power forward.

I don't think they will offer Nurkic a great deal, they have Myles Turner who can play both center and power forward and has great defensive potential.

Indiana are a very interesting project I must say. They have a franchise player who has stepped up big time this year in Oladipo, a bunch of good young players led by Turner and Sabonis, two very favorable contracts in Collison and Bogdanovic for another year and lots of cap space. They made exactly the right moves last Summer after they traded George and it will pay off. They won't be contenders but they'll give their fans plenty of fun.

 

[Mr. Robot]

I don't think they will offer Nurkic a great deal, they have Myles Turner who can play both center and power forward and has great defensive potential.

Indiana are a very interesting project I must say. They have a franchise player who has stepped up big time this year in Oladipo, a bunch of good young players led by Turner and Sabonis, two very favorable contracts in Collison and Bogdanovic for another year and lots of cap space. They made exactly the right moves last Summer after they traded George and it will pay off. They won't be contenders but they'll give their fans plenty of fun.

why not have both Myles Turner and Nurkic, that would be some crazy defense from those two...
they can trade Sabonis or leave him as a bench player

 

[Mediocre Man]

lets hear the guesses

I’ll start. Per.

Davis- $8m
Napier- $10m
Connaughton- $5m
Vonleh- $7m
Nurkic- $17-20m

Olshey looks at those numbers and says "hold my beer"

 

[Sarni]

why not have both Myles Turner and Nurkic, that would be some crazy defense from those two...
they can trade Sabonis or leave him as a bench player

Sabonis has been very good for them, they won't trade him, they will develop him.

 

[Mr. Robot]

Sabonis has been very good for them, they won't trade him, they will develop him.

theyd be better with developing Nurk, much better, they can afford it

 

[Boise Blazer]

I feel like someone is going to overpay Pat in the 7 to 10 milmill range

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I think we're undervaluing all of them. MLE this summer was $36M/4; we don't think Ed and Pat Bazz are MLE-level guys, and Bazz probably a bit more? Honestly, I think that if we don't trade our pending FA's before the deadline, we're going to be disappointed/surprised by how much these guys end up getting paid this summer. We're going to have to overpay to keep Nurkic, won't want to keep Vonleh because of our existing depth at PF, and won't be willing to pay the value necessary to retain Napier, Connaughton, or Davis on our bench.

Unless Olshey makes a decent move in the next 10 days, I think we lose almost all those guys.

 

[BonesJones]

I don't think they will offer Nurkic a great deal, they have Myles Turner who can play both center and power forward and has great defensive potential.

Indiana are a very interesting project I must say. They have a franchise player who has stepped up big time this year in Oladipo, a bunch of good young players led by Turner and Sabonis, two very favorable contracts in Collison and Bogdanovic for another year and lots of cap space. They made exactly the right moves last Summer after they traded George and it will pay off. They won't be contenders but they'll give their fans plenty of fun.

They're in the same exact position as we were in 2016. They need to learn from our mistakes and sign a big free agent or none at all. They could easily maneuver themselves for two max slots. Shrewed moves could give them $75M in cap space to add to Oladipo, Turner, Sabonis, and Leaf.
If I'm Indiana, I'm trying to get to that point and try for LeBron, CP3, Melo, and Wade.
CP3
Oladipo / Wade
LeBron
Melo / Leaf
Turner / Sabonis
That's solid as hell.

If not, maybe Isaiah Thomas and bring back PG?

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Where's the thread where everyone predicted how much Crabbe would get.

 

[Scalma]

I feel like someone is going to overpay Pat in the 7 to 10 milmill range

Guess who’s going to be doing the overpaying.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Mason Plumlee got 3yrs/$41mil.

Nurk is averaging twice as many pts and 2 more rbds per game.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Olshey looks at those numbers and says "hold my beer"

 

[Boob-No-More]

I feel like someone is going to overpay Pat in the 7 to 10 milmill range

Yep. We keep hearing about the shortage of wing players in the league. Pat may never be a star, but he's solid, still reasonably young and improving. $5 million isn't even the tax payer MLE ($5.45 million). The non-tax payer MLE will be $8.83 million. Pretty much every team in the league will be able to offer Pat > $5 million. As we found out with Crabbe, it only takes one...

BNM

 

[Chris Craig]

Theres a difference on what they'd get now, and what they might recieve after the rest of the season/postseason. Nurk or Shabazz or Ed could beast out to end the season/ in the playoffs, and raise those contract figures.

 

[Chris Craig]

Is that her son flipping her off?

 

[tester551]

Yep. We keep hearing about the shortage of wing players in the league. Pat may never be a star, but he's solid, still reasonably young and improving. $5 million isn't even the tax payer MLE ($5.45 million). The non-tax payer MLE will be $8.83 million. Pretty much every team in the league will be able to offer Pat > $5 million. As we found out with Crabbe, it only takes one...

BNM

Agreed. If that happens, you learn from the Crabbe mistake & let him go.
Pat for <$4M is good. Pat for >$7M is bad.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Agreed. If that happens, you learn from the Crabbe mistake & let him go.
Pat for <$4M is good. Pat for >$7M is bad.

Would you keep him for a contract starting at $6 million a year? I think he'll get at least one offer north of that.

BNM

 

[tester551]

Would you keep him for a contract starting at $6 million a year? I think he'll get at least one offer north of that.

BNM

Depends upon the length. If its short (2 years), yes. If its long (4 year), no.

I guess it also depends upon what other options are available. I'd be looking at Joe Harris off of Brooklyn's team. There are also some interesting SG prospects in the draft.