How many wins do you expect from this team?

[Haakzilla]

77-5

 

[BigGameDamian]

I'm not casting a vote until I see if they add defense or not. Right now I say same ol same ol.

C'mon dude they added Zach Collins and Caleb Swanigan! How many wins do they amount for?

 

[BonesJones]

48 wins

 

[BlayZa]

assuming a full season from a healthy Nurk and us not letting Meyley anywhere near the court, id think early 50's - around a 30% swing up. but if that .700 win rate was anything to go by, maybe higher is achievable.

 

[riverman]

54...book it!

 

[Sarni]

I'll be fine with 45-49 but think 50+ is a possibility. Western Conference is getting better but we will also have more teams we should comfortably beat from the East - Hawks, Pacers and Bulls should be brutal next season. Kings will be worse than last season when we had to face them with Cousins twice, although long term that team will get much better and more balanced. Lakers will probably be worse than last season too as rookie Ball is not better than second season Russell. Timberwolves will be much better, so should be Pelicans.

 

[Pawel]

I'd say 52. If, somehow, we are able to trade 2-3 mediocre bench players for one seasoned and better wing player we can be in the range of 56-60.

 

[stampedehero]

Got to be real...Injuries and losing streaks happen. 45-50 wins.

 

[Mediocre Man]

C'mon dude they added Zach Collins and Caleb Swanigan! How many wins do they amount for?

0 until they play nba players

 

[mook]

I'm in on the 54 wins.

I think one of our 2 new guys is going to steal the starting spot before opening night from Vonleh. It's really a question of who projects to play better next to Nurkic, which is pretty hard to predict. Collins gives you much better defense, but Swanigan is going to be a beast on the boards and is probably going to be a lot more aggressive in shooting perimeter shots to space the floor.

If I had to bet, I'd go with Swanigan. He's a little more used to being on a big stage. But I'm definitely excited about Summer League to see how this goes.

 

[TBpup]

I'm curious as to what Neil thought he saw that could possibly make Swanigan a wing player?

 

[H.C.]

I'll be fine with 45-49 but think 50+ is a possibility. Western Conference is getting better but we will also have more teams we should comfortably beat from the East - Hawks, Pacers and Bulls should be brutal next season. Kings will be worse than last season when we had to face them with Cousins twice, although long term that team will get much better and more balanced. Lakers will probably be worse than last season too as rookie Ball is not better than second season Russell. Timberwolves will be much better, so should be Pelicans.

A couple of my friends who are laker fans believe they'll make the playoffs this year... Even if they don't acquire PG13 until 2018 off-season.
I laugh at them.

@HCP also believes Lakers are a playoff team.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I'm not casting a vote until I see if they add defense or not. Right now I say same ol same ol.

They did. His name is Jusuf Nurkic. 14-6 with Nurkic, 27-35 without. You don't think more Nurkic == more wins? The team played much better on both ends with him in the line up.

BNM

 

[Harry's Raincoat]

I predict our roster is set.

Evidence suggests that the cost of moving a bloated contract (Crabbe, Turner, Leonard) is very high (i.e. Mozgov) and we aren't going to pay big to get rid of them. Too many years left on those deals to have any takers this summer, I'm afraid.

Rooting for Olshey to prove me wrong.

 

[Schilly]

Roster isn't set at all IMO.

 

[Orion Bailey]

I refuse to give my prediction until @HCP gives his...

 

[Nikolokolus]

Does Nurkic stay healthy? I'll be conservative and guess that he plays about 65-70 games. Is the defense going to improve? I guess that depends on trades, but if Stotts is still at the helm I'm not expecting much improvement without reshuffling the roster a bit.

45-47 wins seems about right.

 

[TBpup]

They did. His name is Jusuf Nurkic. 14-6 with Nurkic, 27-35 without. You don't think more Nurkic == more wins? The team played much better on both ends with him in the line up.

BNM

Agreed....if he is healthy, which he has never been. 20 games with the Blazers and he already had a fracture. History has a way of repeating itself.

 

[Mediocre Man]

They did. His name is Jusuf Nurkic. 14-6 with Nurkic, 27-35 without. You don't think more Nurkic == more wins? The team played much better on both ends with him in the line up.

BNM

Ya they did. We have to improve overall defense. Plus, Nurk probably shortened season for injury.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Agreed....if he is healthy, which he has never been. 20 games with the Blazers and he already had a fracture. History has a way of repeating itself.

He won't be carrying 280+ lb. this season. He had also already played 45 games with DEN. So, that's 65 games without an injury for an overweight, out of shape Nurkic. From the photos posted recently, he's obviously lost considerable weight and in much better shape now than he was in Feb/Mar.

From the photos, he's also lifting weights, not just doing cardio and losing weight. Losing the weight will put less stress on his lower extremities and joints. Strengthening muscles also protects the joints.

So yeah if he was staring the season at 280+ lb. and out of shape, I'd be concerned about history repeating itself. We have yet to see an in shape, properly conditioned Nukic. We don't have any prior history for this version of Nurkic.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Ya they did. We have to improve overall defense. Plus, Nurk probably shortened season for injury.

An out of shape, overweight Nurk played 65 games last season. Even if that's all he plays this season, that's still over 3x the 20 games he played with us. That alone should improve our defense and win-loss record.

I know you're not thrilled about adding Zach Collins, something about his complexion, but his defensive metrics at Gonzaga were off the charts good, and he played some great defense in the NCAA tournament. At the very least, he should be better defensively than Meyers, whose minutes he'll probably take. He can back up both the 4 and 5 positions. After trading Plums and losing Nurk to injury, we really played the remainder of the season and all but 16 minutes of the GSW series without a center. Having someone else who can play center, even if just a rookie, should also help improve our defense.

In the Realistic trade ideas thread, I've been pushing for getting Jae Crowder and/or Patrick Beverly. Adding one, or both of those guys, would also help our perimeter defense.

We won't really know how good our defense will potentially be until the roster is set, but at the very least, more Nurk will help a lot, and Collins over Leonard should help a little more.

BNM

 

[TBpup]

He won't be carrying 280+ lb. this season. He had also already played 45 games with DEN. So, that's 65 games without an injury for an overweight, out of shape Nurkic. From the photos posted recently, he's obviously lost considerable weight and in much better shape now than he was in Feb/Mar.

From the photos, he's also lifting weights, not just doing cardio and losing weight. Losing the weight will put less stress on his lower extremities and joints. Strengthening muscles also protects the joints.

So yeah if he was staring the season at 280+ lb. and out of shape, I'd be concerned about history repeating itself. We have yet to see an in shape, properly conditioned Nukic. We don't have any prior history for this version of Nurkic.

BNM

That may be true for last season but what about the seasons before? In his rookie year, he played 62 games, missing 20. In his 2nd season he played 32 games missing 60. So he is either injury prone or has had weight issues since he came into the league which have caused injuries. That he is working out extra hard to be in shape in his contract year is not exactly a first for NBA players.

Not intending to throw a wet blanket on the almost universal Nurkic love, but injuries have been a part of his NBA career. One season of fitness and hard workouts in a contract year don't mean as much to me as the entire picture.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

An out of shape, overweight Nurk played 65 games last season. Even if that's all he plays this season, that's still over 3x the 20 games he played with us. That alone should improve our defense and win-loss record.

I know you're not thrilled about adding Zach Collins, something about his complexion, but his defensive metrics at Gonzaga were off the charts good, and he played some great defense in the NCAA tournament. At the very least, he should be better defensively than Meyers, whose minutes he'll probably take. He can back up both the 4 and 5 positions. After trading Plums and losing Nurk to injury, we really played the remainder of the season and all but 16 minutes of the GSW series without a center. Having someone else who can play center, even if just a rookie, should also help improve our defense.

In the Realistic trade ideas thread, I've been pushing for getting Jae Crowder and/or Patrick Beverly. Adding one, or both of those guys, would also help our perimeter defense.

We won't really know how good our defense will potentially be until the roster is set, but at the very least, more Nurk will help a lot, and Collins over Leonard should help a little more.

BNM

1) So, MM thinks 57+ wins!
2) The "Realistic trade thread" should be banned. The people on these boards are awesome, but they have no idea what a realistic trade is!
3) The poll should have a < category.
4) Really interested in what THE HCP says (HCP, please predict a win total in the 20s again!)

 

[Boob-No-More]

That may be true for last season but what about the seasons before? In his rookie year, he played 62 games, missing 20. In his 2nd season he played 32 games missing 60. So he is either injury prone or has had weight issues since he came into the league which have caused injuries.

Yes, he has been 280+ his entire career until now. And, I do believe that has contributed to his injuries.

That he is working out extra hard to be in shape in his contract year is not exactly a first for NBA players.

Regardless of the motivation, he will be in the best shape of his career from opening night, and that's a good thing, a very good thing.

Not intending to throw a wet blanket on the almost universal Nurkic love, but injuries have been a part of his NBA career. One season of fitness and hard workouts in a contract year don't mean as much to me as the entire picture.

The guy seemed super motivated and super happy just to be playing before the injury. Hopefully, continued success and continued playing time will help carry the motivation forward, even after he signs his inevitable contract extension.

Time will tell, but this thread is about how many wins the team will have in 2017-18, and an unhealthy, out of shape Nurk played 65 games in 2016-17. Even if that's all we get out of him this year, it should help improve our 2017-18 win total. If we get even more out of a healthy, motivated Nurk, that should help even more.

BNM

 

[TBpup]

Hope he is healthy and the team does very well. I'm just a little bit suspect of anyone who turns around a career long trend in their contract season. History tells us that doesn't hold for very long in most cases and I am wanting the Blazers to do well long term as well as this season.

 

[Boob-No-More]

2) The "Realistic trade thread" should be banned. The people on these boards are awesome, but they have no idea what a realistic trade is!

So, you don't think FEEC for Patrick Beverly is a realistic trade? HOU is looking to dump salary and have put Beverly on the market for that exact reason. FEEC lets them accomplish exactly that prior to the start of the free agent negotiating period on July 1. If HOU really wants to dump salary, there really is no better option for them, in this case, than FEEC. We could even toss in a future 2nd round pick if that's what it takes.

BNM

 

[Mediocre Man]

An out of shape, overweight Nurk played 65 games last season. Even if that's all he plays this season, that's still over 3x the 20 games he played with us. That alone should improve our defense and win-loss record.

I know you're not thrilled about adding Zach Collins, something about his complexion, but his defensive metrics at Gonzaga were off the charts good, and he played some great defense in the NCAA tournament. At the very least, he should be better defensively than Meyers, whose minutes he'll probably take. He can back up both the 4 and 5 positions. After trading Plums and losing Nurk to injury, we really played the remainder of the season and all but 16 minutes of the GSW series without a center. Having someone else who can play center, even if just a rookie, should also help improve our defense.

In the Realistic trade ideas thread, I've been pushing for getting Jae Crowder and/or Patrick Beverly. Adding one, or both of those guys, would also help our perimeter defense.

We won't really know how good our defense will potentially be until the roster is set, but at the very least, more Nurk will help a lot, and Collins over Leonard should help a little more.

BNM

Didn't I hear the same shit last year about being better?

 

[Boob-No-More]

Didn't I hear the same shit last year about being better?

Pretty sure you didn't. We didn't have Nurk last year and we didn't have a 1st round draft pick. Last year was supposedly about internal growth, with guys like Harkless, Crabbe, Vonleh all improving and hopefully taking the next step.

I didn't mention anything about internal growth of our existing players. I mentioned more games with Nurk, our top 10 draft pick being better defensively than your least favorite player, and possibly adding a know known good defensive player, including one that was just voted 1st team all defense, via trade.

How does that sound anything like the same shit you heard last year???? If it does, you may want to get your hearing checked.

BNM

 

[Mediocre Man]

Pretty sure you didn't. We didn't have Nurk last year and we didn't have a 1st round draft pick. Last year was supposedly about internal growth, with guys like Harkless, Crabbe, Vonleh all improving and hopefully taking the next step.

I didn't mention anything about internal growth of our existing players. I mentioned more games with Nurk, our top 10 draft pick being better defensively than your least favorite player, and possibly adding a know known good defensive player, including one that was just voted 1st team all defense, via trade.

How does that sound anything like the same shit you heard last year???? If it does, you may want to get your hearing checked.

BNM

Everyone said we'd be better. We weren't. Nurk made us better ladt year, now teams advanced scouts can game plan. We may or may not be better. Saying anything else is blind homerism. Let's see what else they add and or subtract.....which I still think happens

 

[Boob-No-More]

Everyone said we'd be better. We weren't. Nurk made us better ladt year, now teams advanced scouts can game plan. We may or may not be better. Saying anything else is blind homerism. Let's see what else they add and or subtract.....which I still think happens

So, if I say we will be worse than 41-41, is that blind negativism? After all, we may or may not be worse.

I gave my reasons why I think we will win more games. The reasons were grounded in reality (more Nurk = more wins, Zack Collins playing better defense than Meyers Leonard). You may not agree with my reasons, they may not prove true, but they are legitimate reasons for potential improvement, not just "blind homerism". Why even have a discussion if you're going to reject any, and every, reason for potential improvement as "blind homerism"?

BNM