How Much Draft Capital Is Grant Worth?

[wizenheimer]

with the continuing rumors that Portland has a strong interest in Grant, what is the most you would pay for him in terms of draft picks? (keeping in mind that Detroit's supposed asking price was two 1st's)

 

[wizenheimer]

I voted D), a little reluctantly because I'm not a fan of Grant. I'd be fine if they didn't pursue him at all. I'll add I'd probably be ok with an 11th pick + Bledsoe. I'd be much less ok with the 21M TPE + 11th pick. That seems a little steep to me. I may be underrating Grant and what he could do for the team

 

[Blazinaway]

I voted D), a little reluctantly because I'm not a fan of Grant. I'd be fine if they didn't pursue him at all. I'll add I'd probably be ok with an 11th pick + Bledsoe. I'd be much less ok with the 21M TPE + 11th pick. That seems a little steep to me. I may be underrating Grant and what he could do for the team

not a fan especially with he's going to be wanting a big payday

 

[illmatic99]

https://thedatajocks.com/nba-draft-pick-values/

Purely statistical eval, but with a pick ~5-10, you're expecting a player with ~30 Win shares for their career.

Jerami Grant has 27 win shares in his 8 years in the NBA.

Where this model strays for the norm is if you hit on someone like Dame, who has almost 95 win shares in his 10 yrs. Or someone like Thabeet who had 5 win shares in his 7 seasons.

I don't care for Grant the basketball player, but would be OK with giving up the lower of the picks and Bledsoe for him. Not touching the TPE. Especially given the kinda cap hell we'd put ourselves back into with an extension for JG as well as the emerging talent in this draft, I'm hesitant.

 

[B-Roy]

I voted not a lottery pick, particularly given his contract status. But I full expect us to offer one.

 

[oldmangrouch]

This is the kind of trade you make if you are either the Lakers, or a team that sees a legit shot at a title and just needs a moderate boost. Given where we are now, this deal would be marginally more useful than the RoCo or Nance deals were.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Good question. How long do we have the 21m TPE?
I am ok with using either the TPE or Bledsoe. Do we think we will use both?
And I am ok with giving Detroit 10-14 for him. But no way I give them two 1st round picks.
Grant would not be my first choice that is for sure. But how many options are out there?
I think we all would like to think John Collins is, but what that take?

 

[RR7]

Also voted D. Don't want to give a top 20 pick for just him.

 

[illmatic99]

This is the kind of trade you make if you are either the Lakers, or a team that sees a legit shot at a title and just needs a moderate boost. Given where we are now, this deal would be marginally more useful than the RoCo or Nance deals were.

i think we have a little bit more leeway with two lottery picks. Use one on a known entity in Grant, and the other on a massive swing for the fences. I've been repeating nonstop about how little Grant contributes to winning, but he is still a tall wing starter. And he would also contribute to making Dame happy. The downsides with him are the upcoming extension next yr, but it's a risk possibly worth taking if we can absolutely HIT on our other lottery pick (on a rookie scale contract).

But I'm more bullish on keeping the TPE than the later of our picks. Having that in our war chest could be the way to land a true difference maker at the deadline next season.

 

[illmatic99]

Good question. How long do we have the 21m TPE?
I am ok with using either the TPE or Bledsoe. Do we think we will use both?
And I am ok with giving Detroit 10-14 for him. But no way I give them two 1st round picks.
Grant would not be my first choice that is for sure. But how many options are out there?
I think we all would like to think John Collins is, but what that take?

TPE will expire in Feb 2023.

Collins makes more than the TPE.

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

I think I’d prefer John Collins. I’m not so high on Grant.

one of our lotto picks plus Bledsoe

 

[MickZagger]

I’m really not a Grant fan at all. He’s very overrated. I’ll be very disappointed if he’s our ‘splashy’ offseason acquisition.

 

[Freshtown]

I’m assuming the Pelicans pick won’t convey, I think they’re a lock for the play in and very able to beat out either LA team for the 8 spot. In which case our best offer would be josh hart, not a pick.

 

[blazerkor]

What I would actually try to do is, if we end up with two lotto picks and one of them isn't going to get us Jabari or Paolo, I would see if I could get the Celtics to give up Jaylen Brown for the two picks Bledsoe and Winslow.

Then I would send our second rounder or cash to the Bulls so they would allow us to take the conditions off of the pick we owe them.

I would then trade our 2025 and 2027 picks (top 4 protected in 2025 and lotto protected in 2027) to the Pistons for Jerami Grant, who would fit into our TPE.

You re-sign Nurk, pick up Hart's option and probably pick up a backup big with the miniMLE.

Dame, Ant, Jaylen Brown, Jerami Grant, Nurk, Hart, Nas, Trendon, miniMLE is a rotation that I think would contend.

 

[Freshtown]

What I would actually try to do is, if we end up with two lotto picks and one of them isn't going to get us Jabari or Paolo, I would see if I could get the Celtics to give up Jaylen Brown for the two picks Bledsoe and Winslow.

Then I would send our second rounder or cash to the Bulls so they would allow us to take the conditions off of the pick we owe them.

I would then trade our 2025 and 2027 picks (top 4 protected in 2025 and lotto protected in 2027) to the Pistons for Jerami Grant, who would fit into our TPE.

You re-sign Nurk, pick up Hart's option and probably pick up a backup big with the miniMLE.

Dame, Ant, Jaylen Brown, Jerami Grant, Nurk, Hart, Nas, Trendon, miniMLE is a rotation that I think would contend.

they’re not blowing up the brown-Tatum duo right now. This is a pipe dream.

 

[blazerkor]

I’m assuming the Pelicans pick won’t convey, I think they’re a lock for the play in and very able to beat out either LA team for the 8 spot. In which case our best offer would be josh hart, not a pick.

The Clippers are playing pretty good ball, they just recently beat the Warriors by 15 and have won 5 of their last 6. I think the Spurs are a team that could pass the Pelicans, I also think that if Sac put it together they could start winning a lot of games too. So I do not think they're a lock but they most likely will be in the play in and I'm pretty sure they'll lose to either the Wolves or Clippers if they make it that far.

 

[illmatic99]

remember the Pels would have to win twice in the PIT (can we call it that? I don't like "play-in tournament") if they finish 9/10. Unless Zion is back, I don't see this as all that likely.

But CJ could get hot, ya never know.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

the PIT (can we call it that? I don't like "play-in tournament")

Would be a great term when talking about teams trying to stay in the top 6. "Brooklyn hoping KD and Simmons can help them rise up out of the PIT". "Boston seeking desperately to avoid falling into the PIT".

I like it--make it so.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

https://thedatajocks.com/nba-draft-pick-values/

Purely statistical eval, but with a pick ~5-10, you're expecting a player with ~30 Win shares for their career.

Jerami Grant has 27 win shares in his 8 years in the NBA.

Where this model strays for the norm is if you hit on someone like Dame, who has almost 95 win shares in his 10 yrs. Or someone like Thabeet who had 5 win shares in his 7 seasons.

I don't care for Grant the basketball player, but would be OK with giving up the lower of the picks and Bledsoe for him. Not touching the TPE. Especially given the kinda cap hell we'd put ourselves back into with an extension for JG as well as the emerging talent in this draft, I'm hesitant.

The variance in huge or tiny win share you bring up is interesting. Even at equal value the higher variance of the draft pick is probably an advantage to the Blazers. To contend; they need to hit big on acquisition(s) to get way more win shares than simply expected from where the roster is heading. If the Blazers were only one piece from contending than maybe less variance would be a preferred strategy.

What win shares will Grant have in years 9-12? Most NBA players are declining and then significantly more so as they move past those years.

Plus there is the huge salary cost Grant will have as opposed to a very inexpensive lottery pick. Even if the lottery pick is a home run eventually on a max deal, it is much less than Grant's max.

I'm fine with taking a flyer on adding Grant for a late first round pick. I wouldn't give up a lottery pick, unless I really disliked the players up and down that range of the draft.

 

[KSF-ERIC]

What I would actually try to do is, if we end up with two lotto picks and one of them isn't going to get us Jabari or Paolo, I would see if I could get the Celtics to give up Jaylen Brown for the two picks Bledsoe and Winslow.

Then I would send our second rounder or cash to the Bulls so they would allow us to take the conditions off of the pick we owe them.

I would then trade our 2025 and 2027 picks (top 4 protected in 2025 and lotto protected in 2027) to the Pistons for Jerami Grant, who would fit into our TPE.

You re-sign Nurk, pick up Hart's option and probably pick up a backup big with the miniMLE.

Dame, Ant, Jaylen Brown, Jerami Grant, Nurk, Hart, Nas, Trendon, miniMLE is a rotation that I think would contend.

This would never ever happen

 

[Tince]

with the continuing rumors that Portland has a strong interest in Grant, what is the most you would pay for him in terms of draft picks? (keeping in mind that Detroit's supposed asking price was two 1st's)

The poll question is "How much is too much for Grant?" so I went to click on the Top 4 + Top 10 because that's way too much, but the last part says "go all in", so I'm slightly confused if I'm supposed to be answer how much is too much or if I'm selecting what the most is I'm willing to give up?

 

[wizenheimer]

The poll question is "How much is too much for Grant?" so I went to click on the Top 4 + Top 10 because that's way too much, but the last part says "go all in", so I'm slightly confused if I'm supposed to be answer how much is too much or if I'm selecting what the most is I'm willing to give up?

I was thinking you'd see an option that was too much and then select the next less expensive option

don't sweat it....I was as confused writing it as you were reading it

 

[Tince]

I was thinking you'd see an option that was too much and then select the next less expensive option

don't sweat it....I was as confused writing it as you were reading it

All good... it's probably more me, than you. I'm a bit slow at times!