OT Hurricane Florence

[BonesJones]

I live in the Orlando area. Luckily I have family to the north and south of me, so if shit gets real, I'm taking off. But yeah, canned foods, water, candles and all that are stocked just in case.

As far as reading model runs, nahhh. I'm just gonna pm you.

But how will you know to PM me? Haha.

 

[Lanny]

I have. I've been everywhere and I never sleep.

I'm where you don't see me.

Have you been to Guam? How about Cholon, Vietnam? Do you know where Cholon is?

Ehh, global warming might increase wind shear as well. El Ninos will also play a factor.

Changes in El Nino have already been attributed to Global Warming. I'm afraid I'm unfamiliar with wind shear but if that's changing then I'd also attribute at least a possibility of it being the result of Global Warmin.

Global Warming is beginning to seriously affect our weather.

 

[BonesJones]

Have you been to Guam? How about Cholon, Vietnam? Do you know where Cholon is?

Changes in El Nino have already been attributed to Global Warming. I'm afraid I'm unfamiliar with wind shear but if that's changing then I'd also attribute at least a possibility of it being the result of Global Warmin.

Global Warming is beginning to seriously affect our weather.

Everywhere in the United States and Europe.

What's weird is that people attribute the severity of hurricane seasons based on the strength of storms that make landfall in the United States. Not based on what happens in the Western or Eastern Pacific, or even in regards to storms that curve out to sea.

2005 was by far the worst hurricane season every due to all factors, and nothing will surpass it. Before last year, the previous couple of years were relatively quiet.

El Nino usually means a quieter Atlantic hurricane season. This study says that global warming is increasing El Nino events, which would mean less of a threat to humans since Eastern Pacific cyclones don't usually affect land.

It's more complicated than "Higher Avg. Global Temperatures = Higher Atlantic Ocean Temperatures = More Hurricanes Threatening the East Coast". You gotta look at El Ninos, shear, and the affect on steering currents.

 

[MarAzul]

and the affect on steering currents.

Does a reduction is fresh water run off from the continents rivers affect these currents?

 

[BonesJones]

Does a reduction is fresh water run off from the continents rivers affect these currents?

The water below doesn't steer a hurricane. It's a complicated mix of upper level dynamics.

To put it simply, a ridge of high pressure to the north of the hurricane will make it go West. A trough or front will pick up a hurricane and send it northward and out to sea. A combination of dynamics can influence stalling or even southward movement.

Water affects strength. Atmosphere affects strength and track.

 

[MarAzul]

Water affects strength. Atmosphere affects strength and track.

So less current flow in the major ocean currents due to less continental run off would result in warmer ocean currents although less total volume in the stream. The warmer waters would produce stronger cyclones. But at the same time less flow will result in less heat transfer from the tropics to the upper latitudes.

 

[BonesJones]

So less current flow in the major ocean currents due to less continental run off would result in warmer ocean currents although less total volume in the stream. The warmer waters would produce stronger cyclones. But at the same time less flow will result in less heat transfer from the tropics to the upper latitudes.

I have no idea what you're trying to say.

The differences in the "volume" of "continental runoff" into the ocean is negligible and doesn't really matter. "Flow" doesn't affect heat transfer.

 

[MarAzul]

And of course less cooling water volume returning in the coriolis swirl to cool the tropical current.

 

[MarAzul]

I have no idea what you're trying to say.

The differences in the "volume" of "continental runoff" into the ocean is negligible and doesn't really matter. "Flow" doesn't affect heat transfer.

Oh! Really? I surely does in a heat exchanger.

 

[BonesJones]

Oh! Really? I surely does in a heat exchanger.

Great conversation.

 

[MarAzul]

Great conversation.

You are welcome.

 

[MarAzul]

I could go into great detail on the probability of what we are heading into, but dang! I can not type it all.
It takes more than a little to see and a narrative to explain. It is Oceanography, the basis of global weather.
At least in the view of the Ancient Mariner.

 

[lawai'a]

I have. I've been everywhere and I never sleep.

I'm where you don't see me.

you just need to add "and i've seen everything but the wind".

 

[BonesJones]

you just need to add "and i've seen everything but the wind".

I will purposely seek out and ride out a hurricane at some point in my life.

 

[BonesJones]

Doubled in strength since this post. 140mph sustained winds now.

 

[barfo]

I will purposely seek out and ride out a hurricane at some point in my life.

And I will purposely seek out and ride a bicycle at some point in my life.

barfo

 

[stampedehero]

I hope the citizens of the Carolinas have good fortune. This looks menacing. The States of Delaware and Maryland will be affected. Since I'm in Jersey, I expect some sort of disastrous weather in my neck of the woods for sure. My wife and I have a shore house in Seaside and coastal effects are going to be severe. We are located three blocks from the bay to the West and three blocks East to the ocean.

 

[The Professional Fan]

@BonesJones my Mom lives in Newport News, VA which is, from what I can tell, the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. You say this could flood DC through the Bay, but DC is like, a 3 hour drive north from Newport News, roughly (i think traffic has a lot to do with this, perhaps not distance idk I've only done it once). If the 'Cane hits the mouth of the bay, or close to it, what do you think about the immediate surrounding areas?

 

[The Professional Fan]

@BonesJones my Mom lives in Newport News, VA which is, from what I can tell, the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. You say this could flood DC through the Bay, but DC is like, a 3 hour drive north from Newport News, roughly (i think traffic has a lot to do with this, perhaps not distance idk I've only done it once). If the 'Cane hits the mouth of the bay, or close to it, what do you think about the immediate surrounding areas?

Actually, she lives in Williamsburg witch is inland from Newport News, but not by much at all.

 

[BonesJones]

@BonesJones my Mom lives in Newport News, VA which is, from what I can tell, the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. You say this could flood DC through the Bay, but DC is like, a 3 hour drive north from Newport News, roughly (i think traffic has a lot to do with this, perhaps not distance idk I've only done it once). If the 'Cane hits the mouth of the bay, or close to it, what do you think about the immediate surrounding areas?

Actually, she lives in Williamsburg witch is inland from Newport News, but not by much at all.

Let talk about the most likely scenario where the hurricane makes landfall in southern North Carolina:

Williamsburg looks pretty protected from storm surge. She's most likely going to be on the north side of the storm so the winds will blow from East to West, and that town seems to be a mile or so from the northeastern coastline which is most likely to experience the storm surge.

Rainfall is a different story. This storm is going to stall, and she'll be in the right front quadrant, which is the usually the strongest and rainiest in any scenario. In this scenario, it'll likely be enforced by the fact that the part of the storm she'll be in will be drawing moisture from off the shore. With all the waterways in that area, flooding could be catastrophic. If she doesn't live on higher ground and she plans on staying, she needs to find a shelter, or put a plan in place in case her house floods out and she needs to get to higher ground. This quadrant is also known to produce the most tornados in its outer bands, and with it stalling for days, she needs to know what to do if a tornado threatens her house. Interior room with no windows that's furthest away from any windows is the best scenario.

If she has big trees, especially on the east side of her house, then that could be a major risk. Also, secure any lose lawn equipment (chairs, tables, etc.) and she should make sure her neighbors do the same. In the case of a tornado or strong wing gusts, you don't want these things turning into projectiles.

However, it is possible the hurricane could move north of the projected path and make landfall in her area.

If the ridge to the north erodes somewhat on the left side, that could lead to a storm that moves up or skirts the coastline. The bad thing about this scenario is that it would be more likely for the hurricane to park itself off the North Carolina/Virginia coast and stall for potentially days while maintaining strength. In this scenario, if it's close enough to the coast she could be experiences tropical-storm/hurricane force winds for who knows how long. It would also increase the flooding potential to Harvey-esqe levels. This is a doomsday scenario and isn't likely, but it's possible.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2018/hurricane-florence?map=model Keep track with Florence here. Lots of updated hurricane models and information.

 

[BonesJones]

I hope the citizens of the Carolinas have good fortune. This looks menacing. The States of Delaware and Maryland will be affected. Since I'm in Jersey, I expect some sort of disastrous weather in my neck of the woods for sure. My wife and I have a shore house in Seaside and coastal effects are going to be severe. We are located three blocks from the bay to the West and three blocks East to the ocean.

That could be very dangerous... This storm could park itself off the coast while it's radius continues to grow, maintain strength, and then move north. You'd be in a spot that would experience storm surge, and the boardwalk would get wrecked. That'd likely flood out that strip... I'm sure you know all this but I'd be worried.

 

[BonesJones]

View attachment 22256
And of course less cooling water volume returning in the coriolis swirl to cool the tropical current.

Extremes in large or East-Coast runoff wouldn't impact Northern Atlantic coolants as much as Amazon run-off would. What are you talking about...

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I have no idea what you're trying to say.

The differences in the "volume" of "continental runoff" into the ocean is negligible and doesn't really matter. "Flow" doesn't affect heat transfer.

MarAzul is trying to say that allowing some water to continue to flow its natural course to the ocean in order to protect native plants and animals is harmful to the environment and causing stronger hurricanes.

Yes, I know it's crazy.

And yes, I too am scared that I actually figured out what the hell he is talking about.

 

[BonesJones]

MarAzul is trying to say that allowing some water to continue to flow its natural course to the ocean in order to protect native plants and animals is harmful to the environment and causing stronger hurricanes.

Yes, I know it's crazy.

And yes, I too am scared that I actually figured out what the hell he is talking about.

He's talking pouring a 55 degree glass of water into an 85 degree lake that has a million times the water volume as if the glass of water would cool the entire lake by a degree. Ridiculous.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

He's talking pouring a 55 degree glass of water into an 85 degree lake that has a million times the water volume as if the glass of water would cool the entire lake by a degree. Ridiculous.

This goes back to his rant against Californian politicians not giving Nestle, almond farmers, and avacado growers unlimited water instead of letting some of it flow to the ocean to protect native fish and wildlife.

 

[CupWizier]

I will purposely seek out and ride out a hurricane at some point in my life.

Already been there and done that as the 1962 Columbus Day storm was a doozie. It happened on my sisters birthday.

 

[BonesJones]

Already been there and done that as the 1962 Columbus Day storm was a doozie. It happened on my sisters birthday.

That's shitty. I'd probably find a nice tall parking garage.

 

[H.C.]

This goes back to his rant against Californian politicians not giving Nestle, almond farmers, and avacado growers unlimited water instead of letting some of it flow to the ocean to protect native fish and wildlife.

Marazul would never rant.
Seems like character defamation to me.
You should be charged with slander.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

That's shitty. I'd probably find a nice tall parking garage.

Just stay in your mom's basement.

 

[theprunetang]

Marazul would never rant.
Seems like character defamation to me.
You should be charged with slander.

Amend the constitution to make sly illegal.