I am 100% Certain we will win 42+ games next year

[Charcoal Filtered]

Ahhh, thanks for the insight. and your right. Final home game will probably be answered. Lets do it if your able to secure and thank MGB's wife for me please!

Already secured, just not for sure if it will be a premium game or not. Doubting the last game will be against Cleveland but you never know. We can wait for the schedule to be released and figure it out. If the bet is resolved earlier than the finale, we can also just agree on a game that works with both our schedules.

 

[magnifier661]

I think our team and players should go into the season like we are still in the hunt for the playoffs. The first 20 games should be pretty telling on how our team competes in the league. If everyone gels, players like Meyers and CJ take huge leaps, then you continue the playoff run. If it looks like most the "realists" suspect, then tinker tinker tinker with different line-ups, work on development as well.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Already secured, just not for sure if it will be a premium game or not. Doubting the last game will be against Cleveland but you never know. We can wait for the schedule to be released and figure it out. If the bet is resolved earlier than the finale, we can also just agree on a game that works with both our schedules.

Solid!

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

I think our team and players should go into the season like we are still in the hunt for the playoffs. The first 20 games should be pretty telling on how our team competes in the league. If everyone gels, players like Meyers and CJ take huge leaps, then you continue the playoff run. If it looks like most the "realists" suspect, then tinker tinker tinker with different line-ups, work on development as well.

Houston, Dallas, SA, GS, LAC, OKC, Memphis are clearly better. New Orleans could also be included with these teams.
Utah played well late and Minnesota is improving. Despite the disfunction in Sacramento, they still have Boogie.
Phoenix continues to exceed expectations.
Not expecting much from Denver or the Lakers. Guessing though we split the season series with these two teams though.

The West is just tough and would be happy with 30 wins.

 

[Blazer Freak]

Bro, your sig...

LA FOR LYFE BRO!

 

[Marko Bellatali]

No chance this team wins that many games. SA, OKC, and DAL all got better this offseason. GS/NOP will likely be better due to their youth getting another year under their belt. HOU, MEM, and LAC will still be tough, and are still out of our league. Bad teams from last year like MIN, UTA and LAL also improved.

Take off the homer sunglasses, and you can easily pick the Blazers to finish last in the West. Talent wise, they probably are last.

Realistically, I think this team is looking at a top 5 pick next year. Which in the long run would be better than your assessment of 42+ games which would likely net us a 12-14 lottery pick.

 

[Natebishop3]

LA 4 LYFE BRO!

 

[Orion Bailey]

No chance this team wins that many games. SA, OKC, and DAL all got better this offseason. GS/NOP will likely be better due to their youth getting another year under their belt. HOU, MEM, and LAC will still be tough, and are still out of our league. Bad teams from last year like MIN, UTA and LAL also improved.

Take off the homer sunglasses, and you can easily pick the Blazers to finish last in the West. Talent wise, they probably are last.

Realistically, I think this team is looking at a top 5 pick next year. Which in the long run would be better than your assessment of 42+ games which would likely net us a 12-14 lottery pick.

If your right, then we have a lottery pick in a very underwhelming draft and we are several years away. Basically starting to get good after Lillard has peaked in the latter half of Lillard's contract. I don't think that cuts it for Lillard or PA. I think your over emphasizing the stats of our new acquisitions when comparing the roles they played on previous teams vs the roles they will have here. I see the biggest factor for this team? Chemistry. If this team feels good together and builds good chemistry, that means a couple guys will also blossom and we might find another emerging all star before us in maybe a CJ or a Leanard. I think Chemistry will be the biggest factor in 30 vs 40 wins.
With that said, I am confident in Olsheys ability to find stand up professionals who want to work together to obtain the bigger prize, rather than worry about stats and being the number one. This team has been about character for a few years now and it has worked. No need to start bringing in bully thug allstars with demands.

 

[Denny Crane]

If the bigs can offensive rebound, let the chuckers chuck and you can win.

Play strong defense and slow the pace to a crawl, execute on offense, and you have a shot to win at the end.

That's how Milwaukee did it, and they have nobody in the same league as Lillard.

 

[Marko Bellatali]

If your right, then we have a lottery pick in a very underwhelming draft and we are several years away. Basically starting to get good after Lillard has peaked in the latter half of Lillard's contract. I don't think that cuts it for Lillard or PA. I think your over emphasizing the stats of our new acquisitions when comparing the roles they played on previous teams vs the roles they will have here. I see the biggest factor for this team? Chemistry. If this team feels good together and builds good chemistry, that means a couple guys will also blossom and we might find another emerging all star before us in maybe a CJ or a Leanard. I think Chemistry will be the biggest factor in 30 vs 40 wins.
With that said, I am confident in Olsheys ability to find stand up professionals who want to work together to obtain the bigger prize, rather than worry about stats and being the number one. This team has been about character for a few years now and it has worked. No need to start bringing in bully thug allstars with demands.

I agree. If the chemistry gels, we have a chance to surprise like PHX did a couple years ago. But I still think 42+ wins is pushing it. I think if everything goes well, we have a shot at 35 wins, which would be pretty amazing with the way the West looks. For us to win 42+ games, we will almost have to dominate the East, win 70% of our games against MIN/LAL/UTA/DEN/SAC. I just don't see us winning more than 25-30% of our games againt the Western elite teams.

And the problem with chemistry is that for the first quarter of the season we won't be gelled. This is basically a new team that we have constructed. The first 20-25 games will be a learning curve. If anything, chemistry will likely work against us.

 

[Draco]

I agree. I think Olshey plans for him to be the starter and see if he improves over the season so he can assess the position long term next year.
I think this year is all about trial and error and mix matching puzzle pieces. I also think this will get us some wins, because other teams wont be able to properly scout. We will be the dark horse know one knows about and slide in under the radar most nights.

Yeah I think the hope is we become the Phoenix Suns of two years ago. We have a Plumlee as they did. We have dynamic guards in Dame and CJ that can play in the back court as they had Bledsoe and Dragic. We have a dead eye shooting big in Meyers as they had Frye. If we have a few other players break out with unexpected improvements and no injuries maybe there's a chance. But that's a huge long shot scenario and highly unlikely in my opinion.

Much more likely we end up tanking for Simmons.

 

[Chaser]

You dont see more opportunity for better P&R and lobbing over double teams now? I do. This team still has the outside threat with CJ, Leonard, Crabbe, Wright, and Dame. Dame and CJ can get around most one on ones and force a double team if they dont like what they see from the three. I see alot of 3 pt spotting, fake and drive to get the double team and dishing ff to our centers fr quick dunks and layups from Davis and Plumlee. If we instill a good team defensive strategy, I see this team being top half of the league in defense. We will also get alot of breakout buckets on the run. More athletic and better spacing on the floor can be taught.

The ideal in all honesty, is to go about .500 while excelling the second half as players start to blossom, not make the playoffs and retain our pick, then fill in the pieces to make a contender for the next five years. I really think this has been Olshey's plan all along as plan B if LMA left.

I see two problems with your theory. One Wright has not been made an offer. Olshey may let him go in favor of someone cheaper.
Two, Dame and C.J. are not good defenders. the bigs will have to move twice as fast to cover.

 

[Orion Bailey]

I see two problems with your theory. One Wright has not been made an offer. Olshey may let him go in favor of someone cheaper.
Two, Dame and C.J. are not good defenders. the bigs will have to move twice as fast to cover.

But these bigs CAN move twice as fast. Aminu at the three will be able to help the guard rotation on opposing P&R and. Wright is not essential ot any of this Just including him because if not him I think we will replace with someone similiar.
I think we can come up with 42 wins, not make the playoffs, retain our pick and have tons of cap space to fill the gaps by next offseason. If we gel quick, maybe we pull some trade deadline moves to speed up the retooling even more.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I think our team and players should go into the season like we are still in the hunt for the playoffs. The first 20 games should be pretty telling on how our team competes in the league. If everyone gels, players like Meyers and CJ take huge leaps, then you continue the playoff run. If it looks like most the "realists" suspect, then tinker tinker tinker with different line-ups, work on development as well.

Actually, looking at the first 20 games will probably be the absolute least instructive games to use in any evaluation. This a brand new group of players in an offensive system that has a lot of moving parts and will take some time to master (as well as figuring each other out) not to mention it's going to take the coaches awhile to figure out rotations and who can actually play.

My guess is that Blazers will start very, very slow in the beginning (like 4-16 slow), probably pick up the win total a little bit during the middle, then taper off at the end as other teams that are in the playoffs hunt ratchet up their effort. My scientific-wild-assed-guess by quarters-of-a-season are that they will be post something like 4 wins, 6 wins, 7 wins, 4 wins, (depends on how the schedule is written too I guess).

 

[magnifier661]

Actually, looking at the first 20 games will probably be the absolute least instructive games to use in any evaluation. This a brand new group of players in an offensive system that has a lot of moving parts and will take some time to master (as well as figuring each other out) not to mention it's going to take the coaches awhile to figure out rotations and who can actually play.

My guess is that Blazers will start very, very slow in the beginning (like 4-16 slow), probably pick up the win total a little bit during the middle, then taper off at the end as other teams that are in the playoffs hunt ratchet up their effort. My scientific-wild-assed-guess by quarters-of-a-season are that they will be post something like 4 wins, 6 wins, 7 wins, 4 wins, (depends on how the schedule is written too I guess).

I think that depends more on the system you implement. If we are swarming defense and playing attack the basket, that's something youngsters do Farley well. I think that will taper off as the season progresses.

My first 20 games are more for CJ and Leonard. I'm curious if the playoffs were some fluke or have they really turned the corner?

 

[Nikolokolus]

Youngsters almost never play good team defense.

 

[Further]

I think I'm being pretty optimistic with my belief that the Blazers will have 36 wins this upcoming season. But I don't know shit!

 

[Ricky]

In honor of Stren and how he stuck to what he believed, I am throwing this out there.

Say what you will, could have, or couldn't have won with LMA.... he is gone. I personally thought we might have had a chance this year, if he allowed us to hunt the market together to find the third star, but that's over.

Damian is a winner. He is not going to tank a season. Neil has (quietly, though fighting through a massive shit storm of PR crazyness) quickly put together a very promising, young and athletic group, that has a couple gaps to fill with the money left from LMA.

Some people are thinking the new guys we acquired are trade bait, but I disagree with exception of Henderson.
Henderson may be used in tandem with Kaman to acquire one more decent piece.
DO NOT EXPECT THIS PIECE TO BE AN ALL STAR!!!!

We all know we cant sign free agents, so there is really no point (especially with none of the big names fitting this new mold) in wasting time tossing an offer sheet in the face of names like Gasol and LBJ.

We would be best going after a couple more younger, potential role players, that are still available. Sign them to short 2 year deals. Let this team compete from within as well as in the NBA. Let Stotts mix and match and find the 5 that play the best together. Then at the trade deadline, deal the ones that haven't fit in and play the trade game.

The team as it stands will be able to run with anyone and lock down on most teams inside and out. Much more P&R ability as well and aley oops and in the paint scoring with perimeter defense.

If there is one thing I still have 100% trust in Olshey, it's his eye for potential talent and his ability to not overpay and sign bad contracts. Every offer that has been accepted so far has been a good contract. I have faith he will continue to do so, because he really has no other choice. PA wont overpay AND lose.

Yes, Olshey played us, played the media, but mostly played the other teams as well. He couldn't play the other teams if he didn't also play the media nad us. In my opinion he did the best thing he could do under the circumstances.

If you add all these factors in, I see us coming up on.500 ball by the all star break and improving over the second half of the year.

Neil has now shown his full deck. Some people are asking s where to from here. You don't see it? He has a 5 year plan and has his #1. From what I see so far, he has done everything right to kick this 5 year plan off in a positive, winning direction.

If I have to eat crow, I certainly will, but I wont have to.

I believe!

I think 30 wins would be more reasonable with a new team, and how they work together.

 

[Hobbesarable]

I think I'm being pretty optimistic with my belief that the Blazers will have 36 wins this upcoming season. But I don't know shit!

I doubt any of us realistically know what we can expect from our team losing 4 starters and bringing in a ton of new players. A lot of changes may still be on the horizon. PA will need to review the performance of Olshey and Stotts. He will need to see if they are a good fit for this young team going forward. It'll be interesting to see how they build a foundation for our up and coming team over the next 2 to 3 seasons.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I'm guessing around 25 - which may still be too many.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Orion,

I invite you to the last game of the Blazer season to sit with me in MGB's seats. If they finish .500, it is on me. If not, you pay for both tickets at market rate.

That's a hot deal! Orion, you're in good!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I'm guessing around 25 - which may still be too many.

We won't know until September what our team looks like, but yeah, there's a HUGE range, anywhere from 24-48 they could win. The West managed to get worse through entropy, good players no longer clumping... OKC, GSW, and SAS are going to dominate, but the rest of the teams are all kind of in this stewpot of who-the-fuck-knows.