I can feel them coming... the Lillard Wars

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Summer league should be exciting this year... Oh boy. I hope NBATV shows the games this year.
 
I want him at 11 or trading up from there to get him. 6 needs to go to the bpa that falls to us.
 
santeesioux said:
I want him at 11 or trading up from there to get him. 6 needs to go to the bpa that falls to us.
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How high would you think we need to trade up from 11 to get him before someone else does? Do any among 7-10 have any interest in him?
 
BlazerCaravan said:
How high would you think we need to trade up from 11 to get him before someone else does? Do any among 7-10 have any interest in him?
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I think the Hornets at 10 is really likely to take him, so probably number 9?
 
MickZagger said:
I've read Sac and GS have interest in him.
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Yeah, I think if one doesn't take him, the other will... so you either need 6 & 7, or just take him at 6.

That said, I would not trade up to 4 to get him before Sacto.
 
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Team Lilliard:
  • Can really shoot (.409 3FG, has show NBA range in workouts)
  • Is incredibly efficient (24.5 pts on 15.5 shots = completely ridiculous, kobe was 27.5 pts on 23 shots)
  • Can create his own shot
  • Can shoot FTs (.887 last year)
  • Is very mature on and off the court - already has ideas of how he'd fit in pdx
  • hard worker, humble

Ed O said:
I get the feeling that Lillard is going to be the Blazers' choice at 6. I hope not, but I fear so.

If he is... I predict there are going to be some pretty interesting conversations/arguments happening at least until he steps onto the floor as a Blazer.

Why?

  • He's a shoot-first PG. That makes many of us nervous... especially those of us who remember Damon Stoudamire. :)
  • He is an older player. That generally means more limited upside.
  • He is from a small school. Players do emerge to success in the NBA, of course, but the odds are longer.
  • #6 is a pretty high pick, and it doesn't look (based on the mocks, etc.) that any other team would consider taking him in the top 5, so Portland picking him there would seem like a reach.
There's a lot that can happen between now and draft day, but I think that a Lillard pick at 6 would have an interesting impact here...


Ed O.
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Ed O has fears - I understand that, I do too. The real question is how do you draft Joe Dumars? All of the concerns expressed by Ed and others about Lillard apply to Joe Dumars. Lillard's last year in college was much better than Joe's statistically:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/41544/damian-lillard
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dumarjo01.html

I'm not pontificating, I really want to know. How would you, in retrospect, draft Joe Dumars? What mental gymnastics do you have to go though? I think the answers involve meeting with the potential draftee individually, and seeing how he responds. By all accounts Lillard has passed those tests with flying colors.

I don't know if Lillard is the next Joe Dumars or not, but unless one can answer the above questions, one can't be definitive about not drafting Lillard.

If the blazers feel that he is in Tier 2, then they can absolutely justify Lillard at #6. Of course fans may disagree...
 
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Wizard Mentor said:
[*]Is very mature on and off the court - already has ideas of how he'd fit in pdx
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Saw an interview with him saying he's been a warriors fan his entire life, is a warriors fan right now, and would love to play for his hometown team.
 
The thing is I don't like shoot first PG's and I don't like tiny SG's. So even if everything works out great and Lillard one day becomes an average starting NBA PG I'll probably be frustrated watching his game. I find it to be a very annoying style of basketball to watch when a team has a player bring the ball up the court, do most of the dribbling during the shot clock, run most of the offense, and take most of the shots. Those types of players make me feel like I’m watching Carmelo Anthony run the PG spot.

So if the best case scenario is I'm frustrated watching Lillard be somewhat successful on the team I root for.... I don't want to consider the worst case.
 
MickZagger said:
I just have this weird feeling alot of folks around here are going to have egg on their face about Lillard.
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The question is which group? The pro-Lillard's or the no-Lillard's?

Crapshoot. I'm in the I don't care one way or the other camp. I don't trust the Blazer talent evaluators so that immediately casts doubt in my mind about anyone who we may draft. Thus, if we DO draft Lillard, it causes me to immediately question whether he can play or not; and if so, can he play for more than a few years without seriously damaging himself.

Cynicism running rampant in my thoughts in regard to the Blazers today.

Gramps...
 
Treaty_of_Batum said:
Judging by this thread, if Lillard is a boom or a bust, you are right that some folks will have egg of their face. Obvious question is which posters.

Team: No Lillard with #6 pick
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I like Lillard, just not at #6.

Really hoping one of MKG, Beal, T-Rob or Barnes drops to us at #6. Those guys are just better prospects than Lillard and should have better pro careers. I have no interest in Drummond at all, I would take Zeller, Henson or Meyers before him.
 
Draco said:
The thing is I don't like shoot first PG's and I don't like tiny SG's. So even if everything works out great and Lillard one day becomes an average starting NBA PG I'll probably be frustrated watching his game. I find it to be a very annoying style of basketball to watch when a team has a player bring the ball up the court, do most of the dribbling during the shot clock, run most of the offense, and take most of the shots. Those types of players make me feel like I’m watching Carmelo Anthony run the PG spot.

So if the best case scenario is I'm frustrated watching Lillard be somewhat successful on the team I root for.... I don't want to consider the worst case.
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This seems to be a common belief for many people. What bothers me is that I also remember Kevin Johnson and Isaiah Thomas. If you're good at distrbuting the ball AND scoring then that's when it's okay. In fact it's devastating to a defense. I don't know if Lilliard is that kind of PG or not but if he is, we should take him. Of course, if he is then he's probably going fifth overall and it won't matter. He's certainly not going to be there at 11.
 
Wizard Mentor said:
I'm not pontificating, I really want to know. How would you, in retrospect, draft Joe Dumars? What mental gymnastics do you have to go though?
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Joe Dumars went 18th... not sixth. That seems pretty reasonable, given the uncertainties surrounding his level of competition, etc.

I don't think that many (any?) here would mind taking a chance on Lillard at the 11th spot. The sixth spot is just too early, IMO.

Ed O.
 
MickZagger said:
I've read Sac and GS have interest in him.
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Sac is in front of the Blazers, so if they do pick Lillard, nothing the Blazers can do about that (don't think this senario will play out)

GS has Curry (is he a clone of Lillard/) so surprising if they take Lillard that high with all their other needs.

I think there is a good chance he drops to 11. But more hoping the Blazer's PG next year is currently a free agent.
 
Ed O said:
Joe Dumars went 18th... not sixth. That seems pretty reasonable, given the uncertainties surrounding his level of competition, etc.

I don't think that many (any?) here would mind taking a chance on Lillard at the 11th spot. The sixth spot is just too early, IMO.

Ed O.
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Dumars ended up being worth a 6 spot selection. Might not agree with my logic, but if a team feels that a player is worth a higher spot than other teams sometimes its okay to reach. I remember everybody scratching their head when OKC took Westbrook and Harden higher than many teams had them ranked.
 
MickZagger said:
Dumars ended up being worth a 6 spot selection. Might not agree with my logic, but if a team feels that a player is worth a higher spot than other teams sometimes its okay to reach. I remember everybody scratching their head when OKC took Westbrook and Harden higher than many teams had them ranked.
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The 18 year old Harden and the 19 year old Westbrook? Both were projected top-10 picks most of the year.
 
Fez Hammersticks said:
The 18 year old Harden and the 19 year old Westbrook? Both were projected top-10 picks most of the year.
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Westbrook wasn't.

Harden went 3rd and was projected to go between 6 and 8 on most mocks. Westbrook went 4th and was projected to go later than picked as well.
 
Looking over his opponents the best PG he played against IMO was CAL's Jorge Gutierrez; a solid College player who'll never make it in the pros.

Lillard couldn't guard him. CAL blew out Weber St. with Gutierrez shooting 8-12 and 24 pts
 
Fez Hammersticks said:
Looking over his opponents the best PG he played against IMO was CAL's Jorge Gutierrez; a solid College player who'll never make it in the pros.

Lillard couldn't guard him. CAL blew out Weber St. with Gutierrez shooting 8-12 and 24 pts
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Gutierrez was one of the best defenders in college ball.

Do you know if Lillard was assigned to him, or are you just guessing? Justin Cobbs was their main ball-handler.
 
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Wow, most of these guards Webber St. played against aren't even in DX's database.
 
MickZagger said:
Gutierrez was one of the best defenders in college ball.

Do you know if Lillard was assigned to him, or are you just guessing? Justin Cobbs was their main ball-handler.
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Quick to make excuses over his rare outing against a legit team. Quite the powerhouse combo: Cobbs and Gutierrez.
 
Fez Hammersticks said:
Wow, most of these guards Webber St. played against aren't even in DX's database.
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So your anti-Lillard. A year from now are you going to say, actually I did like Lillard, just not at the 6th pick? Ya know, cover your bases?
 
MickZagger said:
Dumars ended up being worth a 6 spot selection. Might not agree with my logic, but if a team feels that a player is worth a higher spot than other teams sometimes its okay to reach.
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Dumars was only worth a 6 spot selection in retrospect--what a player ends up being is not the same as the level of prospect they are at draft time. I think that if GM draft prospects of his level in the top 6 consistently then they would have lost a lot of games and wouldn't end up drafting for very long.

Ed O.
 
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