I can feel them coming... the Lillard Wars

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MickZagger said:
So your anti-Lillard. A year from now are you going to say, actually I did like Lillard, just not at the 6th pick? Ya know, cover your bases?
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comeon.png
 
meh, i dobt really care one way or another

lillard or waiters...both seem about 75% chance to be....meh
 
Ed O said:
Dumars was only worth a 6 spot selection in retrospect--what a player ends up being is not the same as the level of prospect they are at draft time. I think that if GM draft prospects of his level in the top 6 consistently then they would have lost a lot of games and wouldn't end up drafting for very long.

Ed O.
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What are your reason's for not liking Lillard? The guy has probably created more positive buzz among those covering the draft festivities than any other prospect in the draft right now.
 
Ed O said:
Dumars was only worth a 6 spot selection in retrospect--what a player ends up being is not the same as the level of prospect they are at draft time. I think that if GM draft prospects of his level in the top 6 consistently then they would have lost a lot of games and wouldn't end up drafting for very long.

Ed O.
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It's not about taking a small school guy every year. It's about identifying who the best player is every year no matter the competition. I would guess that if you looked at the Spurs boards of the past they wouldn't have guys like Drummond in the top 10. Guys like Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli were higher then people that were selected before them I would think.
 
You can't compare what Lillard did outside the BigSky to what Steph Curry, a player a lot of you love to compare Lillard to, did in his last two years at Davidson:

Oklahoma: 44 pts (L 78-82)
Duke: 29 pts (L 67-79)
Wisconsin: 33 pts (W 73-56)
Gonzaga: 40 pts (W 82-76)
Duke: 20 pts (L 73-79)
North Carolina: 24 pts (L 68-72)

A sample of what he showed scouts. He kept his team with mediocre talent in games against the likes of Duke and NC.
 
MickZagger said:
What are your reason's for not liking Lillard? The guy has probably created more positive buzz among those covering the draft festivities than any other prospect in the draft right now.
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1. Old.
2. Small (unless he's a PG, and even then not very good size).
3. Shoot-first (bad for a PG, in my opinion).
4. Low level of competition.
5. Seems to be a pre-draft hype mirage. (Where would he have gone last year? What has changed?)
6. There are six prospects that I think are clearly better bets.

The team needs talent and they shouldn't be taking a player like Lillard at #6, I don't think.

Ed O.
 
Ed O said:
Joe Dumars went 18th... not sixth. That seems pretty reasonable, given the uncertainties surrounding his level of competition, etc.

I don't think that many (any?) here would mind taking a chance on Lillard at the 11th spot. The sixth spot is just too early, IMO.

Ed O.
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Basically, with your draft strategy you would draft Uwe Blab, Bill Wennington, and Blair Rasmussen ahead of Joe Dumars every time. After all, there is "less uncertainty" with those players than with a small college guy.

Quality of competition should definitely be taken into account, but it alone shouldn't rule one out from being a high pick.

Since most everyone is really just externalizing their feelings, I'll follow suit. I have a bad feeling that we will not draft Lillard but end up wishing we did.
 
Ed O said:
1. Old.
2. Small (unless he's a PG, and even then not very good size).
3. Shoot-first (bad for a PG, in my opinion).
4. Low level of competition.
5. Seems to be a pre-draft hype mirage. (Where would he have gone last year? What has changed?)
6. There are six prospects that I think are clearly better bets.

The team needs talent and they shouldn't be taking a player like Lillard at #6, I don't think.

Ed O.
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Fair enough. My only concern that I think is valid is that he's shoot first.

What are the 6 players you'd rather take ahead of him?
 
MickZagger said:
Fair enough. My only concern that I think is valid is that he's shoot first.

What are the 6 players you'd rather take ahead of him?
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Davis, Robinson, MKG, Beal, Barnes and Drummond.

Ed O.
 
Wizard Mentor said:
Basically, with your draft strategy you would draft Uwe Blab, Bill Wennington, and Blair Rasmussen ahead of Joe Dumars every time. After all, there is "less uncertainty" with those players than with a small college guy.
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You're entirely missing the point. Sorry. If you're going to tell me that my draft strategy would result in that... I dunno what to tell you.

Ed O.
 
Everybody seems to agree that there is an obvious top 6 players in the draft and Lillard is not one of them. I don't care who out of those top six is left, you take them over Lillard. I don't care if the guy left over is Harrison Barnes and fans are tearing their hair out because they think he and Batum are the same player. You still take him because he's the better player.
 
Ed O said:
You're entirely missing the point. Sorry. If you're going to tell me that my draft strategy would result in that... I dunno what to tell you.

Ed O.
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no big deal. Like I said in a new thread, I'll be happy with any one of 7 players with the #6. It's OK if Lillard isn't in your top 7.
 
ebott said:
Everybody seems to agree that there is an obvious top 6 players in the draft and Lillard is not one of them. I don't care who out of those top six is left, you take them over Lillard. I don't care if the guy left over is Harrison Barnes and fans are tearing their hair out because they think he and Batum are the same player. You still take him because he's the better player.
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Pretty much this. I like Lillard and wouldn't mind trading up from our 11th to get him (although I like Marshal more) but at 6 I just hate the idea of passing on any of the players that fall to us.
 
Ed O said:
Davis, Robinson, MKG, Beal, Barnes and Drummond.

Ed O.
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I'm not convinced Drummond will be better than Lillard. His mental makeup from just watching him interview is pretty sketchy. Good NBA players are sure of themselves. He doesn't look sure of himself.

Between Barnes and Lillard I can go either way. I just have a hunch that Barnes will be nothing more than Marvin Williams. I think Lillard can be Westbrook like, in the ability to break down defenses. Creating shots off the dribble is soooo important in today's NBA.
 
ebott said:
Everybody seems to agree that there is an obvious top 6 players in the draft and Lillard is not one of them. I don't care who out of those top six is left, you take them over Lillard. I don't care if the guy left over is Harrison Barnes and fans are tearing their hair out because they think he and Batum are the same player. You still take him because he's the better player.
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I think there is a consensus among fans that there is a top 6 but I don't think every single team sees it the same way.
 
FWIW:

Hollinger has some things to say in light of his draft-rater being released:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2012/story/_/page/PERDiem-120618/nba-2012-nba-draft-rater

6. Potential perimeter busts
One player that Draft Rater isn't crazy about is Damian Lillard of Weber State, who compiled strong numbers but did so against a weak schedule and is much older than most of the prospects at his position. He not only failed to outrank the top point guards above but also rates behind the less-heralded Tyshawn Taylor of Kansas. No. 6 clearly seems a stretch for Lillard, who looks more like a mid-to-late first-rounder in this analysis.
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Can't wait ...
 
Nikolokolus said:
FWIW:

Hollinger has some things to say in light of his draft-rater being released:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2012/story/_/page/PERDiem-120618/nba-2012-nba-draft-rater



Can't wait ...
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It is a numbers analysis. And Hollinger doesn't outright say "he looks more like a mid-tolate first-rounder" he says it with respect to this metric of analysis. Which anyone would be stupid to disagree with. Numbers are just that though, numbers. While I don't really have a high view of the Blazers management's ability to scout players, I do think it's important to view things in context.
 
What criteria is used in his rankings. Because it seems there is a lot of weight on what conference you come from. Lillard had very good #'s so what is throwing it down so far. Also as far as age Brandon was a senior when he came out. If he would have come out sooner I don't think he would of had the same skill level. Sometimes staying a few extra years helps more then jumping directly into the NBA.
 
South East said:
What criteria is used in his rankings. Because it seems there is a lot of weight on what conference you come from. Lillard had very good #'s so what is throwing it down so far. Also as far as age Brandon was a senior when he came out. If he would have come out sooner I don't think he would of had the same skill level. Sometimes staying a few extra years helps more then jumping directly into the NBA.
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There's a bias against small conference players because putting up big numbers in small conferences is easier than doing it in big conferences, and because big numbers in small conferences are less likely to put up numbers in the NBA.

Players that stay in college (older players) tend to be inferior NBA prospects. That doesn't mean that Tim Duncan wasn't incredible, in spite of playing four years. It doesn't mean that Roy should have come out early. It means that underclassmen tend to outperform seniors the same way big school guys tend to outperform small school guys.

Ed O.
 
I don't think Barnes is anything like MArvin Williams, in fact I think he is a much better player....I think he was somewhat constrained by UNC's system...He has a great mid range game and great athleticism...taking him over Lillard is a no brainer, but in all reality he will not be there at #6 anyhow, so it is likely a moot point....

The guy who is looking like he will be there is Drummond...and he certainly has some serious question marks as well....but I look at his worst case as maybe a Kwame Brown? A serviceable big man....and Lillard's worst case is what? Ronnie Price, a combo scoring guard barely hanging onto a roster spot....both are risks IMO...better off with the big man....though I really hope it doesn't come down to that choice....

Lillard may be able to transition his scoring skillset into the NBA, not a given, but his best bet is there...but the real concern is can he be an effective PG? b\c he never really showed it in college...Being able to pass the ball to the right player, at the right time, in the right position is not something easily learned...especially on the fly in the NBA., which he will have to do...knowing mismatches, where a teamate likes the ball and being able to deliver it to him....these things do not come easily to a guy with a scoring mentality....
 
Ed O said:
Joe Dumars went 18th... not sixth. That seems pretty reasonable, given the uncertainties surrounding his level of competition, etc.

I don't think that many (any?) here would mind taking a chance on Lillard at the 11th spot. The sixth spot is just too early, IMO.

Ed O.
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Joe Dumars at 18 was a steal. Joe Dumars at 6 would have been a steal.
 
Ed O said:
Dumars was only worth a 6 spot selection in retrospect-
Ed O.
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Well that's a stupid contradiction. You said you want to draft players slotted higher than the pick, than you say Dumars was only a good pick in retrospect had he been drafted at 6.

LOL

Good ole' 'cover my bases' Ed O.

Boring and predictable. How about taking a real stance for once?
 
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Ed O said:
There's a bias against small conference players because putting up big numbers in small conferences is easier than doing it in big conferences, and because big numbers in small conferences are less likely to put up numbers in the NBA.

Players that stay in college (older players) tend to be inferior NBA prospects. That doesn't mean that Tim Duncan wasn't incredible, in spite of playing four years. It doesn't mean that Roy should have come out early. It means that underclassmen tend to outperform seniors the same way big school guys tend to outperform small school guys.

Ed O.
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Kenneth Faried put up huge numbers in a shit conference. Clearly he wasn't worth a lottery pick.
 
PapaG said:
Kenneth Faried put up huge numbers in a shit conference. Clearly he wasn't worth a lottery pick.
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Faried also dominated big program schools when they played outside the Ohio Valley Conference. Lillard has never dominated a school outside the Big Sky.

2010-2011

15 pts 12 rebs 5 stls Vs. Ohio State (Sullinger: 8 pts 8 rebs)
12 pts 17 rebs Vs. Louisville
20 pts 18 rebs Vs. Florida
 
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Marvin Williams vs. Harrison Barnes

College Stats
Pts: MW - 11.3 | HB - 17.1
Rbs: MW - 6.6 | HB - 5.2
Stls: MW - 1.1 | HB - 1.1
FG%: MW - 50.6 | HB - 44.0
3pt%: MW - 43.2% | HB - 35.8

Measurements
Height: MW - 6'8.25" | HB - 6'8"
Weight: MW - 228 | HB - 228
Wingpsan: MW - 7'3.5" | HB - 6'11.25"
Max vert: MW - 35" | HB - 39.5"
Bench: MW - 12 | HB - 15
Lane Agility: MW - 11.11| HB - 10.93
3/4 Sprint: MW - 3.17 | HB - 3.16
 
Blaze01 said:
That proves......nothing....
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What did I say it proved? Zags mentioned the comparison and I was bored and decided to look up their college stats and combine numbers. They seem pretty similar to me, make your own conclusion from it.
 
PapaG said:
Well that's a stupid contradiction. You said you want to draft players slotted higher than the pick, than you say Dumars was only a good pick in retrospect had he been drafted at 6.
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I want to draft better prospects, which is the net present value of a player.

That has nothing to do with how a player's career ends up except insofar as how it helps you determine what future prospects' NPV is.

There's nothing contradictory about it.

Ed O.
 
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