I Can't take Blake any further

[oldmangrouch]

When you're sick, the runny nose is never the most damaging part of the sickness, but it's often what people complain about because it's easy to notice and ever-present.

I agree that Blake is being targeted to unfair extents, but as the most obvious example of what many consider to be a major problem with the team, it's kindof to be expected.

His play is also the only one of the team's many problems that has a possible solution.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Nobody is pleased with the wreckage that currently makes up the Blazers' lineup and of course it isn't the offense I'd like to see. I don't have a problem with starting either Bayless or Miller, I just don't expect it to be the panacea that some here seem to think it's going to be. I don't think that there is a good alternative available absent some trade magic from KP. Maybe flicking in the season and giving the reins to Bayless is the smartest move for the future...I just expect it to result in more losses this year.

Possibly, but I'm willing to risk our possible seventh or eighth seed to find out.

 

[PapaG]

Blake has magical power that enables him to help the team win despite playing like crap himself. That's really the only explanation I can think of.

Okay, this is what I really think. The team win in spite of Blake's terrible play, not because of his terrible play. You can use the +/- and win% stats, but those stats doesn't mean much when the sample size is so insignificant. Also, Blake's been playing with the better players on the team more so than Miller and Jerryd has, so it's not fair to compare their +/- and win% stats.

I don't take +/- and win% stats very seriously, especially when used with a small sample size, anyway.

Could be, but in terms of sample size, Blake was equal with LMA last year as well, when everybody was crying for an "upgrade".

Sometimes, intangibles matter. That's what appears to be the case to me. We're talking about a 100+ game sample at this stage.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Could be, but in terms of sample size, Blake was equal with LMA last year as well, when everybody was crying for an "upgrade".

Sometimes, intangibles matter. That's what appears to be the case to me.

And if Blake was still hitting 42% of his threes and 43% of his shots overall I don't think you'd hear many complaints about him playing this much.

 

[PapaG]

Possibly, but I'm willing to risk our possible seventh or eighth seed to find out.

You may be, but I'll guarantee that the Vulcans, Paul Allen, and the advertisers who pay for TV/radio spots aren't willing to do so.

 

[PapaG]

And if Blake was still hitting 42% of his threes and 43% of his shots overall I don't think you'd hear many complaints about him playing this much.

So 6% on 3s and 5% on FGs warrant all of this?

I keep hearing "small sample size" for win% stats over 2 seasons, yet after a 1/4 of a season, people are killing the guy. That argument works both ways, I guess.

 

[Schilly]

I think there is a pretty significant difference between a .427 3pt shooter and a .356 3pt shooter.

.357 Damon Stoudamire career 3pt pct.
Career 3pt shooters in the .427 range, BJ Armstrong, Tim Legler, Wesley Person

That to me indicates a pretty significant difference.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I think there is a pretty significant difference between a .427 3pt shooter and a .356 3pt shooter.

.357 Damon Stoudamire career 3pt pct.
Career 3pt shooters in the .427 range, BJ Armstrong, Tim Legler, Wesley Person

That to me indicates a pretty significant difference.

We should never have traded Wes Person.

7% difference is a big one, to be sure. It's one extra hit every 14 shots. On a volume shooter like Damon, that's like an extra hit every game. For Martell, that's an extra hit every other game. For Blake, that's one extra every 3 games.

 

[Schilly]

According to his per game stats it's half a made 3 ever game, or 1.5 points. More than anything teams will feel more comfortable sagging and helping on Roy.

 

[Nikolokolus]

So 6% on 3s and 5% on FGs warrant all of this?

I keep hearing "small sample size" for win% stats over 2 seasons, yet after a 1/4 of a season, people are killing the guy. That argument works both ways, I guess.

Since 43% from the floor on overall field goal percentage is right in that "average for a guard" range and below 40% is generally considered below average, or at least pretty inefficient (especially with a low free throw rate) then yeah, I'd consider the 5% drop pretty significant. Likewise, going from 42% on threes to 34% is a huge deal because of the way defenses will play somebody, particularly when that player is on the floor primarily to space the floor.

The real killer is the way he's played in the past five games or so, 32% from the floor and 33% from distance and this with increased minutes and 4 free throw attempts. Maybe this is just a slump, but all I've seen is a player trending downward.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

According to his per game stats it's half a made 3 ever game, or 1.5 points. More than anything teams will feel more comfortable sagging and helping on Roy.

He only averages 4.2 attempts this season, so an extra one every 14 is one every 3 games, or 1pt extra per game.

 

[Schilly]

140 makes in 69 games last season equates to 2.028 makes per game
36 makes in 24 games this season equals 1.5 makes per game

All I did was the math.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

140 makes in 69 games last season equates to 2.028 makes per game
36 makes in 24 games this season equals 1.5 makes per game

All I did was the math.

So did I. He's averaging 1.5 makes on 4.2 attempts this season. .427 * 4.2 = 1.79 makes. That's +0.3 makes per game, or +1 makes per ~3 games. Last year, he was averaging 4.8 3pt attempts. This year, only 4.2. I just used the math, keeping the 4.2 instead of saying he should shoot more.

 

[Schilly]

I see the error of my math, less 3pt Attempts per game.... Which could be a result of him not shooting as well. SO he's shooting less frequently than last season, and making a lower percentage. So he is losing his Effectiveness. His PER has dropped from 14.4 to 9.3. He is having his worst season as a Blazer in ever single statistical category... on a per minute basis I will add.

So why should he be starting? I don't have an issue with Steve at all, he just shouldn't be starting.

 

[PapaG]

These threads get better and better.

BLANKY!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

So why should he be starting? I don't have an issue with Steve at all, he just shouldn't be starting.

I think it's to have two 3pt threats out there with Roy to keep defenses honest. For all the good about Bayless, he is a slasher, and only shooting 16.7% from 3pt land. Defenses will cheat off him to double/triple Roy. Blake may be shooting worse than last year, but he's still better than the other two options at PG right now.

 

[PapaG]

I think it's to have two 3pt threats out there with Roy to keep defenses honest. For all the good about Bayless, he is a slasher, and only shooting 16.7% from 3pt land. Defenses will cheat off him to double/triple Roy. Blake may be shooting worse than last year, but he's still better than the other two options at PG right now.

Well, there's that, and then there is also that BLANKY doesn't need to dominate the ball in order to actually distribute the ball, as the stats show this year.

I wanted Miller to start as of last week. I had for a month. Now, I've managed to convince myself that BLANKY needs to keep starting, and Miller needs to keep his combo-guard role off of the bench.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Well, there's that, and then there is also that BLANKY doesn't need to dominate the ball in order to actually distribute the ball, as the stats show this year.

Both Miller and Bayless need a higher usage rate than Blake to be effective, yes. Here's the stats on that:

Roy - 27.1%
Bayless - 23.6%
Miller - 22.5%

Aldridge - 21.4%
Webster - 18.1%
Blake - 13.8%
Joel - 10.8%

As you can see, Roy, Bayless, and Miller, owing to their similar use as combo scoring guards, are all feature in the offense. The rest of the starting lineup is shown below them, with Blake appropriately in the 4th Banana role. He's getting a ton of time on the floor precisely because he requires fewer touches in the offense, and his touches can be from long range without the defense totally sagging.

HOWEVER, if his shooting percentage continues to flag (i.e., if this is the new normal and not just a slump), we should trade him. Not for a Miller/Bayless type, but for another sharpshooter who can pass the ball okay and doesn't turn it over too much. Someone who can stay out of the way and keep defenses honest.

Not John Wall.

 

[PapaG]

HOWEVER, if his shooting percentage continues to flag (i.e., if this is the new normal and not just a slump), we should trade him. Not for a Miller/Bayless type, but for another sharpshooter who can pass the ball okay and doesn't turn it over too much. Someone who can stay out of the way and keep defenses honest.

Not John Wall.

I agree 100%. That said, Blake is coming off of major shoulder surgery on his shooting arm. Either the surgery was successful, and he'll gain his shot back, or it isn't, and he's done. It's a big 1.5 month for Blake right now, unless he is still injured.

I guess that one is up to the medical staff that the "majority" wants fired.

Plus, I already stated in this thread that Miller is now a combo guard. I think he's not going to work in Portland as a pass-first PG. I'm not sure he's ever been one with elite talent.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I think it's to have two 3pt threats out there with Roy to keep defenses honest. For all the good about Bayless, he is a slasher, and only shooting 16.7% from 3pt land. Defenses will cheat off him to double/triple Roy. Blake may be shooting worse than last year, but he's still better than the other two options at PG right now.

Here's the problem: Roy doesn't score early in the game anyway.

Whatever positive impact Blake has on Roy, it isn't reflected in the first quarter (sometimes, the first half).

We are using our PGs backwards. We need the attacking, scoring threat to start the game, and then bring Blake in later to help Roy get going.

 

[PapaG]

Here's the problem: Roy doesn't score early in the game anyway.

Whatever positive impact Blake has on Roy, it isn't reflected in the first quarter (sometimes, the first half).

We are using our PGs backwards. We need the attacking, scoring threat to start the game, and then bring Blake in later to help Roy get going.

The win% says different, but whatever.

 

[Blazed Mania 52]

The win% says different, but whatever.

Well the win percentage plan in according of this year could be better,and Miller would probably help the team more.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Here's the problem: Roy doesn't score early in the game anyway.

Roy is also not the only starter we have that can play inside the 3pt line. Players like LMA and Oden who get doubled if they get too deep need threats out there to protect them.

 

[ehizzy3]

what the hell happened on that turnover?

wrong thread lol

 

[oldmangrouch]

The win% says different, but whatever.

The team only scored 16 points in the first quarter. You have to admit, this has been a common pattern over the last 1 1/4 seasons.

 

[Schilly]

Slow starts happened a lot last season. 19 of our 54 wins were come from behind by double digits. That is not exactly a place you want to put yourself in so often. This year we aren't shooting as well as a team so coming back from double digits is much more difficult.

I have yet to encounter a sport with a defined ending time where starting slow is a good idea.

 

[julius]

Slow starts happened a lot last season. 19 of our 54 wins were come from behind by double digits. That is not exactly a place you want to put yourself in so often. This year we aren't shooting as well as a team so coming back from double digits is much more difficult.

I have yet to encounter a sport with a defined ending time where starting slow is a good idea.

the sport of competitive pooping. Trust me, you don't want to rush that.

 

[Luther]

Ok ok ok enough with all the in depth stat bullshit...anyone that knows anything about basketball can see that Blake is playing like SHIT right now and is obviously hurting the team...On top of that our coaches seem to think that playing 3 Pgs at the same time is smart.....?? Either way something has got to change whether it is the coaches realizing that Blake is not a starter nor does he deserve more than 15 mpg or its KP trading some of our valuable assets to upgrade at the SF, backup PF or PG to ensure that this year isn't a complete waste of time.

 

[Blazed Mania 52]

Tonight Blake played 42 minutes, had 3 To, 1 assist and 7 points.

Bayless played 17 minutes had 9 points, 1 TO.

Fact is Bayless should get at least HALF of the minutes Blake is getting if not more, because he has a much higher ceiling.

 

[alex42083]

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=197491659211 haha...