I like this team

[mook]

I think we will see that lineup from time to time, absolutely, but I'm worried Wallace and Aldridge would get abused by bigger teams.

I gotta say I had a lot of fun watching Okur trying to guard Gerald Wallace last night.

The pieces kind of fit for a lot of small ball this year:
1. Batum and Wallace both need tons of minutes, but they are both natural 3's. Playing Wallace at 4 solves that.
2. The team has lots of pieces that seem capable of running a scrambling defensive pressure that produces runouts. This may be the first year Nate actually coaches a reasonably fast team to be reasonably fast.
3. We're pretty deep at the small positions, so we can shuffle lots of guys through as guys inevitably get tired.
4. We're very shallow at the big positions. Aldridge is the only guy over 6'9 with a PER over 15.
5. With such a compressed schedule, teams aren't going to have any time to prepare for us. A small, scrambling, defensive lineup focused on traps and turnovers and denying post entry passes is going to catch a lot of tired teams off-guard.

Ideally, we ride this pressuring, high-energy small defensive team until mid-April, leading to us getting a top 2 seed. Oden is then 100% healthy and is a defensive monster that allows us to take the foot off the pedal a little and go with more traditional half-court sets in preparation for the playoffs. The Blazers crush their enemies, see them driven before them, and hear the lamentations of their women on the way to a championship.

Hey, I said ideally.

 

[Natebishop3]

I gotta say I had a lot of fun watching Okur trying to guard Gerald Wallace last night.

The pieces kind of fit for a lot of small ball this year:
1. Batum and Wallace both need tons of minutes, but they are both natural 3's. Playing Wallace at 4 solves that.
2. The team has lots of pieces that seem capable of running a scrambling defensive pressure that produces runouts. This may be the first year Nate actually coaches a reasonably fast team to be reasonably fast.
3. We're pretty deep at the small positions, so we can shuffle lots of guys through.
4. We're very shallow at the big positions. Aldridge is the only guy over 6'9 with a PER over 15.
5. With such a compressed schedule, teams aren't going to have any time to prepare for us. A small, scrambling, defensive lineup focused on traps and turnovers and denying post entry passes is going to catch a lot of tired teams off-guard.

Ideally, we ride this pressuring, high-energy small defensive team until mid-April, leading to us getting a top 2 seed. Oden is then 100% healthy and is a defensive monster that allows us to take the foot off the pedal a little and go with more traditional half-court sets in preparation for the playoffs. The Blazers crush their enemies, see them driven before them, and hear the lamentations of their women on the way to a championship.

Hey, I said ideally.

Well, like I was saying, I think we will see it against certain teams. The Jazz aren't especially big and bruising (until Kanter came in and dominated the glass). Okur has always been a cliche euro big who likes to play on the perimeter and doesn't box out much. That's why Wallace was such a pain in the ass for him. I suspect Wallace would have had a hard time guarding Milsap though.

 

[illmatic99]

CJ Miles is dejected.

https://twitter.com/#!/CJMiles34

Broke down the tape last night and I was disgusting a couple times when it came to putting my body on guys on the wings .. Gotta harass them

Like they harassed us they were the aggressor last might and we basically just took the beating there was no spark no life wit us out there

 

[Minstrel]

Yeah, if you were to try to give our team a cumulative PER (is that ever even done? If so it seems like it'd be pretty interesting to see), I'd expect it to be around 16.

You'd have to weight each player's PER by their minutes played, so that a player who has a 19 PER in 4 MPG isn't contributing more to "team PER" than a player putting up a 16 PER in 25 MPG.

You'd have to use their share of the total minutes played by the team for the season, though, to account for games missed entirely (which wouldn't drag down their MPG, but would detract from their contributions).

And you'd have to be someone other than me, since I'm far too lazy to do it.

 

[Minstrel]

By way of comparison:
Dallas had 5 rotation guys last year with PER's over 14.
Last year Miami: 3
Last year Lakers: 4
2004 Championship Pistons: 6
72 win Championship Bulls: 5

So I guess on one hand you could look at this team as unusually deep in talent, at least according to PER. On the other hand, you could point out that depth doesn't really seem to matter in terms of contending. As we all know, at the very elite level it's all about the top 2-5 guys.

In a sense, this team is a poor man's version of the 2000 Blazers...pretty solid depth of talent, no true superstars. Wallace was a bit too inconsistent to be one, Pippen was past his prime.

Of course, there's no 2000 LA Lakers, either. No team in the West looks to have overwhelming talent. The Blazers could do quite well this season.

 

[Eastoff]

Losing? Hope not!

9-2 is better than the ducks record.

 

[Sinobas]

I'm really high on this team too. I think they'll be very fun to watch! I like our bench, I like our mixture of vets and young players. We seem to have a very balanced roster, full of athletisism, hustle, defense, inside/outside scoring. And there are really no expectations like there were with the "big 3", but ironically, I think this team will go deeper into the playoffs than the big 3 ever did.

Not to crap on Roy, but the Roy lead Blazers could be really boring to watch. Our problem last year was lack of depth, but we've got that covered this year. If this team finishes in the top 4 and goes deep into the playoffs, I think the Blazers should really consider using the cap space to keep this squad together, rather than going after a FA. And no, don't waste any more $ on Oden.

 

[magnifier661]

Good thing there are only 3-4 of those in the league.

Star pf and center yes, but there are plenty of teams with a legitimate center type and pf. We have the ability to play in position at all positions. We haven't Ben like that since early 2000. I would rather us have Wallace dominate the sf, while Aldridge dominates the pf position. Like you said, not many teams have a legit center, so it doesn't matter as much playing camby and Thomas there.

 

[Denny Crane]

The Batum Wallace front court will get abused off the glass. Teams with a defined starting center and power forward William handle us on the boards. I can't stomached watching us have a great defensive effort, only to see the other team get an offensive board. I see that lineup playing limited minutes, but not starting.

LMA is heavier than Tyson Chandler, and not much shorter.

Wallace grabbed 10 boards a game two seasons ago.

Batum is no beast on the boards, but he's fine for a SF.

 

[mook]

In a sense, this team is a poor man's version of the 2000 Blazers...pretty solid depth of talent, no true superstars. Wallace was a bit too inconsistent to be one, Pippen was past his prime.

Of course, there's no 2000 LA Lakers, either. No team in the West looks to have overwhelming talent. The Blazers could do quite well this season.

Interesting comparison. Had to look it up--7 of 8 guys met my magical mark of a PER over 14 on that team. The only one who didn't was Greg Anthony (13), who was a defensive stud that year. The 9th guy in that rotation (Bonzi) had a PER of 17. Just a really stacked team of very good but not great players.

The most striking difference is not only overall talent, though, but size. Sabas, Wallace, Grant, Jermaine--even Steve Smith was big for an SG. That was a team of giants. This one is more about versatile athletes.

I'm certainly not predicting a finals appearance for this team, but yeah, I can see how if all the stars aligned (including a few other teams maybe having some key injuries) it could make it there. And we'd all be talking about how a Heat/Blazers Finals series was reminiscent of the 2000 Lakers/Blazers series. (Until the games actually start and we likely get stomped.)

 

[Mediocre Man]

9-2 is better than the ducks record.

9 is more wins than the Beavs football team has had in two years

 

[jlprk]

PER's of our 8 top players last year:
Batum: 14.8
Matthews: 15.5
Aldridge: 21.5
Wallace: 18.9
Felton: 16.6
Crawford: 14.2
Camby: 14.8

Last year 6 of our 8 top players had a PER over 14. This year all 8 project to. It's just a deeper team than we had, and when you look at the rest of the lineup it's easy to see how even the end of the bench looks better. Especially with an intense, shortened schedule, the Blazers seem pretty well positioned to get home court in the first round.

By way of comparison:
Dallas had 5 rotation guys last year with PER's over 14.
Last year Miami: 3
Last year Lakers: 4
2004 Championship Pistons: 6
72 win Championship Bulls: 5

So I guess on one hand you could look at this team as unusually deep in talent, at least according to PER. On the other hand, you could point out that depth doesn't really seem to matter in terms of contending. As we all know, at the very elite level it's all about the top 2-5 guys. Also, it may not even be possible to have 8 players have high PER's.

Who is our 8th man projected to be around 15.0? You only list 7, and Kurt Thomas was 10.0 last season.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thomaku01.html

As stated, the best teams have a more centralized core of go-to players.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I did some similar analysis a couple of years ago, and if I remember right, lots of guys with PER over 14-ish isn't as big a deal as the teams that have two guys with PER over 20.

 

[Natebishop3]

I did some similar analysis a couple of years ago, and if I remember right, lots of guys with PER over 14-ish isn't as big a deal as the teams that have two guys with PER over 20.

Wallace and Aldridge could both sport PERs over 20.

 

[KingSpeed]

I know it's one game. I know they haven't developed together yet, but I like the vibe of this team. It's very workman like. Tough defense, tough offense..... tough. This is probably one of the best defensive rosters we've had in years. Gerald Wallace, Wesley Matthews, Nic Batum, Marcus Camby, Jamal Crawford. Lots of steals, lots of hustle.

I also really like how we're pushing the ball. Making the extra pass. Good ball movement, good player movement. There was a lot to like tonight. I think this is a team that could surprise a few people. I'm kinda hoping we don't make any more moves so we can see what these guys can accomplish together.

GO BLAZERS!

Weren't you down on the Blazers a few days ago? No Roy, no chance? And we had all of those defensive players last year except for Crawford.

MM- you gotta be in it to win it and with this team, we'll be in it. After losing in the first round, did you think Dallas would win the title this time last year?

 

[Natebishop3]

Weren't you down on the Blazers a few days ago? No Roy, no chance?

I don't think I've ever said, No Roy, No Chance. I did say (before we signed Crawford/Thomas/Smith) that I thought it might be better to rebuild. Did you look at our bench a few weeks ago, Eric? It was less than abysmal. It was down right "fell off the ugly tree and hit every branch on the way down" terrible.

 

[Eastoff]

9 is more wins than the Beavs football team has had in two years

OrSU also beat UT in basketball this year. =]

 

[KingSpeed]

I don't think I've ever said, No Roy, No Chance. I did say (before we signed Crawford/Thomas/Smith) that I thought it might be better to rebuild. Did you look at our bench a few weeks ago, Eric? It was less than abysmal. It was down right "fell off the ugly tree and hit every branch on the way down" terrible.

Ok so you spoke too soon. You said we were done because we lost our star and didn't replace him. I think that was after the Crawford signing,

 

[Mediocre Man]

OrSU also beat UT in basketball this year. =]

I'm not sure what that is supposed to mean to me, but cool?

 

[THE HCP]

It was fun to watch last night!

I was a little embarrassed, but your wife said, "Why Not!"

 

[Mediocre Man]

I was a little embarrassed, but your wife said, "Why Not!"

Hahahahaha. Awesome

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Wallace and Aldridge could both sport PERs over 20.

You also need one to have a PER over 25. Yeah I know, the "but but but" statements are annoying.

 

[Natebishop3]

Ok so you spoke too soon. You said we were done because we lost our star and didn't replace him. I think that was after the Crawford signing,

Where/when did I say that?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

You also need one to have a PER over 25. Yeah I know, the "but but but" statements are annoying.

You realize that last year only three players bested 25, and Dirk was not one of them, right? And that the Mavs' second-highest PER was Chandler's 18.45?

 

[mook]

Who is our 8th man projected to be around 15.0? You only list 7, and Kurt Thomas was 10.0 last season.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thomaku01.html

My bad. I miscounted. You are correct that it's 7 out of 8.

As stated, the best teams have a more centralized core of go-to players

Very true. This team is getting primed for a consolidation trade. Between Matthews, Wallace, Batum and Crawford, you've got 4 decent starting-quality players for 2 positions.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

You realize that last year only three players bested 25, and Dirk was not one of them, right? And that the Mavs' second-highest PER was Chandler's 18.45?

As I said before, it's been a couple of years since I did my deep dive on the PER stats for championship teams. Besides, some teams make huge transformations between the regular season and the playoffs (which would explain why we were favorites in our series against Dallas and they ended up being champs). What was their Playoff PER like?

Dirk - 25.2
Terry - 20.3

 

[PtldPlatypus]

As I said before, it's been a couple of years since I did my deep dive on the PER stats for championship teams. Besides, some teams make huge transformations between the regular season and the playoffs (which would explain why we were favorites in our series against Dallas and they ended up being champs). What was their Playoff PER like?

Dirk - 25.2
Terry - 20.3

So all that matters is being good enough to get into the playoffs, and then playing like champs once you're there? OK, great. Is anyone going to argue that LMA isn't capable of a PER over 25 for a 20-game stretch? Or that Crawford or Wallace couldn't be above 20 for a month?

Sounds like our team, according to your analysis, has the pieces necessary to make a deep playoff run after all.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

So all that matters is being good enough to get into the playoffs, and then playing like champs once you're there? OK, great. Is anyone going to argue that LMA isn't capable of a PER over 25 for a 20-game stretch? Or that Crawford or Wallace couldn't be above 20 for a month?

Sounds like our team, according to your analysis, has the pieces necessary to make a deep playoff run after all.

Totally agree (and I don't think you realize it, but I was never arguing against it); if LMA has the moves not to be trapped by a defense that's ready for him, and Wallace hustles his ass off, we might be in for a deep playoff run, especially in a chaotic west like this year's west.

It's also no guarantee; Miami's big three were 26.3, 23.7, and 18.5. At that point (when two teams are equally matched), it does become players 4-9 who matter.

 

[magnifier661]

I think the key is the lack of distractions. As much as I love Roy and the possibility of Oden, they distracted the growth of our team. It was still Roy's team, even with injury, which made our team, coaches and management wait it out. Now that they aren't waiting, I expect the others to step up their game. We may see a much better team game then we've had since 1998. Better defense, more hustle, and better execution. No more Blake or miller questions. No more jack or Blake concerns. No more being the worst offensive output. We have turned a new leaf and I think I like it!

 

[Nikolokolus]

I think the key is the lack of distractions. As much as I love Roy and the possibility of Oden, they distracted the growth of our team. It was still Roy's team, even with injury, which made our team, coaches and management wait it out. Now that they aren't waiting, I expect the others to step up their game. We may see a much better team game then we've had since 1998. Better defense, more hustle, and better execution. No more Blake or miller questions. No more jack or Blake concerns. No more being the worst offensive output. We have turned a new leaf and I think I like it!

The coaches and management maybe waited it out, but this notion that players stunted their own developemnt with Roy and Oden out is a complete canard. When Roy was out last year I only saw one guy truly make a step forward from complimentary player to star and that was Aldridge ... a second overall pick.