I like this team

[jlprk]

My bad. I miscounted. You are correct that it's 7 out of 8.

It kills your whole point, which was weak: Last year we had 6 players over 14.0 in PER, and this preseason we have 8 (corrected to 7), so therefore you project that we will have 8 (7) by the end of the year, so that's a great improvement.

Problem is, several got those PERs by playing on separate teams, and now must play together, so at least one of them won't get the minutes he got, so we'll probably still have the same number (6) guys with PERs over 14.0.

Your other point, that we have more than most elite teams, is countered by the statement that most champ teams have a small core. The reason for that is:

PER is normalized for each team, meaning--half the season minutes (not players) are above 15 and half are below. Then that is multiplied by a factor symbolizing the team's season winning percentage. So if we have the same winning percentage again, yet 2 more players move from below 14 to above it, the bottom half of our players will move way down in PER to compensate--even if all our players are better players than last year.

 

[Masbee]

PER of 15 is an average NBA player, according to Hollinger

Average Starter.

 

[Draco]

I like the feel good vibe of this years team. It reminds me of the no superstar '99 lockout Blazer team. Crawford basically said he wants to come off the bench, contrast that to Andre Miller or Roy who both made continuous public comments about wanting to start. LaMarcus is not a chest thumping star, he'd probably welcome less involvement in the offense so he doesn't get beat down by the end of the season.

Brandon had a side of him that kind of wanted to be the man and take the big shot and make the media comments after games and have the offense run through him. He even said it, when we lost he felt like he needed to be out there taking more shots or the team would lose. That gunner attitude can be good if it’s positively directed in the correct manner but it can also make other guys sit down in their place since they don't want to outshine the star. That was a fault of McMillian, he had so much of the offense built around Roy instead of getting other teammates going first. Jordan had the same problems before Phil instituted the triangle. Jordan dominated games offensively but the team as a whole would struggle.

For us this year it just feels like nobodies worried about stepping on anybodies toes. Nobodies walking on eggshells with comments or worried about minutes; everyone just wants to get out there and run around and have some fun and play hard.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Great points, Draco. I'm hopeful of this as well!

 

[Masbee]

Keep in mind that PER is as much a function of shots taken or rebound hogged as anything else. If you an above average scorer or rebounder or assist guy, and on your team you are the designated whatever, you can easily get a decent PER. Then you have other guys on a team that may also have those abilities or skills but are young, or aren't better than the option A guy. Their PER numbers suffer as they spend court time watching the stars take the shots and the stats. So, on a team like these Blazers, the PER scores should be considered with what else the player brings that doesn't show up in PER like defense and setting screens and efficient scoring.

We could end up with the unselfsish team and the stats spread all around pretty evenly. But, it is more likely that Aldridge and a couple of other guys will have big years as they assert their hold on the team. Probably Wallace and then one of the guards will have a hot shooting year.

PER's of our 8 top players last year:
Batum: 14.8 - very efficient scorer, also decent and versatile defender. Possible breakout year stat wise.
Matthews: 15.5 - very efficient scorer, also decent defender. Played on bum ankle much of last season.
Aldridge: 21.5 - our star. Plays both sides of the court decently. Efficient scorer despite being the focus of the defense, good defender, higest WinShares on team by far last season.
Wallace: 18.9 - efficient scorer, very good defender, WinShares per /48 while on Blazes close to Aldridge rate.
Felton: 16.6 - average efficiency, average defender. Has to contribute more than stats indicate by running the team well.
Crawford: 14.2 - some years efficient, some not so much. Below average defender. He contributes by creating offense and taking shots. Every team needs a gunner with ice veins. And, if he has a hot shooting year like 2010, that could easily propel us to a Top 4 seed this year.
Camby: 14.8 - very good defender, was efficient scorer until injury plagued last season. Could return to norm.

Last year 6 of our 8 top players had a PER over 14. This year all 8 project to. It's just a deeper team than we had, and when you look at the rest of the lineup it's easy to see how even the end of the bench looks better.

Especially with an intense, shortened schedule, the Blazers seem pretty well positioned to get home court in the first round.

You forgot:

Kurt Thomas - PER 10.0 - Sound bad right? WinShare per/48 of .131 would have been 3rd best on the Blazers last season. Thomas knows how to play the game and be a consumate role player who sets screens (Crawford is gonna love it), defends very well, and keeps the spacing right by hitting an open jumper. You can't ask for any more from a backup big.

Craig Smith - PER 15.4 (nope, not a fluke, his career PER is 16.4). Dude is a LOAD in the paint who can score. His rebounding is average. He is a matchup big. Against most reserves (or weak front lines) he can produce for you (see PER). Don't expect him to do well against good front lines and we will be happy with this signing.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Craig Smith and Kurt Thomas would have been great against Chandler last year, to get him riled up at the right time. Crawford is what we needed out of Rudy last year too, hitting the open shot. Eliot Williams and Nolan Smith could have been a Game 5 and Game 6 shot in the arm that we needed but didn't get ala Roy (Game 4) and Chris Johnson (Game 3). I really do feel like this team is much better now than this time last season.

Man, this Kool-Aid tastes AWESOME!

 

[TripTango]

Craig Smith and Kurt Thomas would have been great against Chandler last year, to get him riled up at the right time. Crawford is what we needed out of Rudy last year too, hitting the open shot. Eliot Williams and Nolan Smith could have been a Game 5 and Game 6 shot in the arm that we needed but didn't get ala Roy (Game 4) and Chris Johnson (Game 3). I really do feel like this team is much better now than this time last season.

Man, this Kool-Aid tastes AWESOME!

The grouchy, pain-ridden skeptic in me wants to tell you all that it's crazy to have so much optimism after just one preseason game against the Jazz, but you know what? Fuck it -- I'm in. If Nate lets these guys run, it could be a very interesting season. The Blazers are dead! Long live the Blazers!

Now pass me the purplesaurus n' vodka.