I Think Obama Has This One

[BLAZER PROPHET]

The incumbent usually wins.

True, but often not in a bad economy. And this one is very bad.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

So it's all Obama's fault that Congress won't compromise? Isn't the blame on both sides?

A little of both. But in all honesty Obama's idea of compromise ahs been to see it way 100%. Not that I'm holding the GOP blameless, but he's a very dificult person to work with.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

True, but often not in a bad economy. And this one is very bad.

Which is why I think Romney has a chance, if he just came across more likeable. And again, I don't think the camera is his friend, which in today's age makes it very tough on him.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

If Obama were running against your local congressman, he'd clearly lose. But he's running against Mitt Romney. That's the difference between 2010 and 2012.

What makes me wonder is how this is the best the GOP can do. I mean, here's the most divisive President in US history and has placed the country squarely on a downward spiral to full insolvency that cannot be stopped and one would think he'd be a dead man walking when it comes to reelection. But Romney?? Hell, they might as well have nominated Palin.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Which is why I think Romney has a chance, if he just came across more likeable. And again, I don't think the camera is his friend, which in today's age makes it very tough on him.

I get a sense he can't 'connect' well with people. He doesn't with me. And that just makes him very blah as a candidate.

 

[ABM]

True, but often not in a bad economy. And this one is very bad.

Silly, it's STILL Bush's fault!!!

 

[mobes23]

I mean, here's the most divisive President in US history and has placed the country squarely on a downward spiral to full insolvency that cannot be stopped and one would think he'd be a dead man walking when it comes to reelection.

He may seem divisive to you because you lean to the right -- I still think Bush was far more divisive (probably because I lean left.)

 

[crandc]

OK, Denny, I've always wanted to know.

Who is Shore in your Crane/Shore?

 

[ABM]

OK, Denny, I've always wanted to know.

Who is Shore in your Crane/Shore?

I'm assuming: http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0021025/

James Spader

 

[Denny Crane]

Too bad this phone program is actually a Reagan-era initiative. This lady really should give credit where it's due.
http://www.snopes.com/politics/taxes/cellphone.asp

The reagan era program did not give anyone a free phone.

 

[Denny Crane]

I'm assuming: http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0021025/

James Spader

I'm assuming it's the other guy in the Crane/Shore 2012 banner in my sig.

 

[mook]

I mean, here's the most divisive President in US history and has placed the country squarely on a downward spiral to full insolvency that cannot be stopped and one would think he'd be a dead man walking when it comes to reelection.

Maybe you shouldn't assume your assessment of the president is the same as the rest of the electorate's. Obama's favorable ratings have surprisingly improved recently, from what I heard on NPR.

But Romney?? Hell, they might as well have nominated Palin.

Romney won the primary because he was widely perceived as the most electable among an extremely conservative mix of candidates. His history in MA and with the Olympics and business gave Republicans hope that moderates would ignore all the "strict" conservative things Romney had to say to win the primary and things would be ok.

But that primary battle has been a big lead weight for Romney. And whenever he tries to shrug it off a little, his own party beats him back in line. He's not even allowed to talk about his biggest legislative accomplishment (MA healthcare).

As long as the Republican party continues to insist that we can't have even $1 of tax increases to offset $10 in spending cuts, it's going to be very tough for them to win. Romney is a total stiff, so maybe a more likable guy like Huckabee could've succeeded where he's failing. But Obama is incredibly vulnerable--if they can't win the war of ideas against him right now, what's going to make them more successful 4 years from now?

Keep in mind we've probably already passed the low point in public approval for Obamacare. History has shown that (affordable or not) these sorts of big government health care programs build popular support over the long run. As it gains in popularity (and continues to be associated with Democrats) it's going to be impossible to run against. Romney has already waffled about repealing really popular aspects (letting kids up to 26 stay on your program, etc).

 

[mook]

The reagan era program did not give anyone a free phone.

Because landline phones were pretty cheap. It did give away free phone service, which was the real cost. Congress (before Obama was elected) upped the ante to cell services in 2008.

 

[DaLincolnJones]

Mook, you have some well thought out posts.

How can you say that obummercare has hit a low point, it has not even hit the pocket book of the masses yet. Whois going to like it? The poor? Who cant afford to buy health care, but will face a tax for not doing so?

The business owners? Their employees that will lose health care through employers?

The only poeple who win are the insurance companies, who if history repetes itself, will jackup the prices like they did with mandatory auto insurance.

the sad truth is when 2014 hits and even the rabid left start to get the same fucking as the right, only then will the truth come out in the media

 

[mook]

Mook, you have some well thought out posts.

How can you say that obummercare has hit a low point, it has not even hit the pocket book of the masses yet. Whois going to like it? The poor? Who cant afford to buy health care, but will face a tax for not doing so?

The business owners? Their employees that will lose health care through employers?

The only poeple who win are the insurance companies, who if history repetes itself, will jackup the prices like they did with mandatory auto insurance.

the sad truth is when 2014 hits and even the rabid left start to get the same fucking as the right, only then will the truth come out in the media

In 2014 you'll see two major factors really take hold:
#1. You will have to buy insurance. If you don't, fuck you, the government will make you.
#2. Pre-existing conditions get thrown out the window.

I think Americans are really, really familiar with #1. They hate it. But they understand it. We all have to pay liability insurance for our car. We already pay FICA. We all understand the idea of government mandating that we give up our money. We hate it, but we get it.

I don't think people have internalized #2. It's a fundamental change in outlook to think about how it just doesn't matter if you had cancer when going out to buy insurance. People will love that idea. They love that idea everywhere it's been implemented, so much so that it has never, ever been repealed in order to do away with #1.

Democratic politicians aren't idiots, at least in terms of looking out for their self-interest. They like getting re-elected. Obamacare is a winning long-term political strategy. The question has been whether it can last long enough to see the political payoff. And whether Dems could survive the short-term political fallout of everybody focusing on #1.

Keep in mind, I'm not talking about Obamacare's actual merits here. I'm just saying politically it'll be good for Democrats.

 

[Denny Crane]

Maybe you shouldn't assume your assessment of the president is the same as the rest of the electorate's. Obama's favorable ratings have surprisingly improved recently, from what I heard on NPR.



Romney won the primary because he was widely perceived as the most electable among an extremely conservative mix of candidates. His history in MA and with the Olympics and business gave Republicans hope that moderates would ignore all the "strict" conservative things Romney had to say to win the primary and things would be ok.

But that primary battle has been a big lead weight for Romney. And whenever he tries to shrug it off a little, his own party beats him back in line. He's not even allowed to talk about his biggest legislative accomplishment (MA healthcare).

As long as the Republican party continues to insist that we can't have even $1 of tax increases to offset $10 in spending cuts, it's going to be very tough for them to win. Romney is a total stiff, so maybe a more likable guy like Huckabee could've succeeded where he's failing. But Obama is incredibly vulnerable--if they can't win the war of ideas against him right now, what's going to make them more successful 4 years from now?

Keep in mind we've probably already passed the low point in public approval for Obamacare. History has shown that (affordable or not) these sorts of big government health care programs build popular support over the long run. As it gains in popularity (and continues to be associated with Democrats) it's going to be impossible to run against. Romney has already waffled about repealing really popular aspects (letting kids up to 26 stay on your program, etc).

There's never been $10 in spending cuts proposed - just a bunch of shady accounting. And there's absolutely nothing wrong with implementing real spending cuts unilaterally, since they're ultimately what's best for the country.

Maybe after people see the govt. living near within its means, tax increases would be something to talk about.

I mean, how can you accept govt. spending at historical highest levels (% of GDP) after increasing govt. spending by 25% all at once and expect us to pony up for it? Especially if we want none of it.

 

[mook]

There's never been $10 in spending cuts proposed - just a bunch of shady accounting. And there's absolutely nothing wrong with implementing real spending cuts unilaterally, since they're ultimately what's best for the country.

Maybe after people see the govt. living near within its means, tax increases would be something to talk about.

I mean, how can you accept govt. spending at historical highest levels (% of GDP) after increasing govt. spending by 25% all at once and expect us to pony up for it? Especially if we want none of it.

I understand libertarian boilerplate arguments. That's not really what this thread is about, though. It's about why Romney is losing when Obama has clearly had a pretty unsuccessful presidency (aside from Obamacare, which was a success from his perspective).

It's tough to argue that Romney would be doing better if only he were more of a libertarian. You might be more excited about him if he were, but it wouldn't make him more electable to the majority of Americans.

 

[bluefrog]

The reason I think Romney is going to lose is that even in rural North Carolina he is losing people's confidence. NC is a swing state but he is decidedly not an option for rural white voters in the state.

I was getting my lawn mower repaired and overheard a conversation from some guys at the shop. Two reasons for which they criticized Romney:

1) "He’s a [damn] Yankee"
2) "He looks like a dumbass"

I'm not sure what the second point meant but I think it goes back to the "not being able to connect with the common voter" which BP pointed out.

 

[Denny Crane]

I understand libertarian boilerplate arguments. That's not really what this thread is about, though. It's about why Romney is losing when Obama has clearly had a pretty unsuccessful presidency (aside from Obamacare, which was a success from his perspective).

It's tough to argue that Romney would be doing better if only he were more of a libertarian. You might be more excited about him if he were, but it wouldn't make him more electable to the majority of Americans.

I'm not arguing the Libertarian boilerplate argument. If I were, it'd be talking about 50% cuts across the board, if not more. Not $10 worth of cuts in a $1.xT deficit.

I'm looking at this from the republican perspective. Obama calls it a "balanced" approach to raise taxes (so he can spend more!) and cut spending (via shady accounting tricks).

All I'm saying is, "I'm from Missouri, show me."

And I mean, show me you're serious and without the shady accounting.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

This debate and who wins or loses will not come down to talking points.

Romney has the most to win and lose during these debates. Everyone has had exposure to Obama and have preconceived ideas of what he is all about. Many have had little exposure to Romney. Forget records, can Romney come out of this debate as likeable that the voter feels understands them.

If he can do that, he wins the debate and is back in the race. If he comes across as the foot in the mouth big business guy who doesn't care about 47% of the people, he has no chance.

 

[MickZagger]

Uh oh. Now MaxieP's getting real serious in his Obama hate....

When in reality he was equally hating on him 4 years ago before he was ever elected. Its like spin cycle. The same guys that hated on Obama 4 years ago on this board when he was going against McCain are the same 4 or 5 guys who hate on him now.

If his approval rating is as bad as the select few Neo-Con's around here want you to believe he wouldn't be up in the polls with 5 weeks to go before the election.

The fact of the matter is, Obama has done several good things for the country despite taking over the Titanic about 4 years ago. This in the face of a GOP that never wanted to see him succeed to begin with.

Its why politics these days is disgusting, too much money and pride involved to care about whats best for the country instead of toeing the party line.

 

[MickZagger]

Its ironic that I just saw this as an ad at the top of the page:

[video=youtube;BewOcp1JtDU]

 

[Ed O]

Uh oh. Now MaxieP's getting real serious in his Obama hate....

When in reality he was equally hating on him 4 years ago before he was ever elected. Its like spin cycle. The same guys that hated on Obama 4 years ago on this board when he was going against McCain are the same 4 or 5 guys who hate on him now.

So... those of us who weren't fans of his 4 or 5 years ago and have seen ourselves proven right about his incompetence should change our minds.

Why should we do that?

I think it's more damning that people who loved him 4 or 5 years ago and have seen themselves proven wrong about his ability to change the country and the world do NOT change their minds.

Ed O.

 

[MickZagger]

So... those of us who weren't fans of his 4 or 5 years ago and have seen ourselves proven right about his incompetence should change our minds.

Why should we do that?

I think it's more damning that people who loved him 4 or 5 years ago and have seen themselves proven wrong about his ability to change the country and the world do NOT change their minds.

Ed O.

His approval rating wouldn't suggest the incompetence that the few of you want everybody to believe. But, then again you guys are the same that think Bush's 8 years was a smashing success.

Sooooo...

 

[DaLincolnJones]

Ok Mick, what "good" has he done for the country?

I dont see it, I see favors to supporters, but those did nothing for the country..

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

More twist-fest.

Sweet.

 

[MickZagger]

Ok Mick, what "good" has he done for the country?

I dont see it, I see favors to supporters, but those did nothing for the country..

Passed health care reform, ended the war in Iraq, captured Bin Laden, turned around the auto industry, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform, improved America's image abroad, did a lot for Education reform, boosted fuel efficiency standards, increased support for veterans, repealed 'Don't ask, Don't Tell'....

But, Republican's choose to put their hands over their ears and shout, ''lalalalallaa i can't hear you".....

 

[Ed O]

His approval rating wouldn't suggest the incompetence that the few of you want everybody to believe.

Is competence measured in polls now, rather than objective numbers?

Also: I thought you weren't a fan of polls.

And how does his approval rating look now, compared to when he first took office?

But, then again you guys are the same that think Bush's 8 years was a smashing success.

Who are you talking to? And why does this have anything to do with Obama?

Ed O.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Passed health care reform, ended the war in Iraq, captured Bin Laden, turned around the auto industry, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform, improved America's image abroad, did a lot for Education reform, boosted fuel efficiency standards, increased support for veterans, repealed 'Don't ask, Don't Tell'....

But, Republican's choose to put their hands over their ears and shout, ''lalalalallaa i can't hear you".....

That's called living in their bubble.

 

[Ed O]

And how does his approval rating look now, compared to when he first took office?

Here's some info for you, in case you didn't know:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/gallup-daily-obama-job-approval.aspx

Ed O.